Phase VI: The Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament

[Bob Green]

This ACC Tournament Phase Post is in the form of an email conversation between Troublemaker (TM) and yours truly Bob Green (BG). We cover all the standard discussion topics and invite all DBRers to jump in and expound on our points or point out where we completely miss the mark.

It's time to win another ACC Championship!

Health

TM: To start off with, let's talk about Health. Let's hope that (A) nobody else gets injured, (B) Zion really does return on Thursday, and (C) Marques can return relatively soon.

Bob - do you have any thoughts on the impact of Marques' absence?

BG: The loss of Marques hurts depth on a team that has depth issues. If Zion returns, depth becomes less of an issue; however, losing Marques lessens Coach K's ability to change up player combinations so I see depth and flexibility as the impacts of Marques' absence.

TM: At the same time, I look forward to seeing Zion playing center (the "death lineup"). Coach K has often gone to it when Duke is in trouble -- trailing Texas Tech in the second half, trailing Georgia Tech at halftime, some of the Gonzaga comeback that fell short, and the Louisville comeback. It's almost as if Coach knows it's his best lineup because it opens things up offensively but is still devastating defensively and yet he only "breaks" it out "in case of emergency." Well, now the death lineup should become a more regular part of Duke's rotation, and I'm excited to see what damage can be done.

Bob, I definitely agree with you on the flexibility with Bolden out. I don't think Coach K will venture beyond the top 7, so all 7 guys have to perform. In particular, I remember when Marques was huge (literally) in the second half of the game at Syracuse, keeping Cuse's big bodies like Chukwu from dominating the boards. We might miss that flexibility against the really tall teams.

Match Ups

BG: While Marques is out, Coach K will have no choice but to employ the small lineup. The good news is that lineup plays excellent pressure defense, which will allow the team to get back to creating offense with defense. The return of Zion Williamson is mandatory for this to happen. The bad news, as you state, is we will miss Bolden on the glass. He has been a solid rim protector this season. The timing of Bolden's injury is a shame as he was turning into a real force on both ends of the court.

Assuming "chalk" advances over the first two rounds, which is a pretty safe assumption on our side of the bracket, Syracuse will be our Quarterfinals opponent. Their zone defense is scary for a team that struggles with its outside shot the way Duke is prone to do. Players not named RJ and Cam combined to shoot 1-9 on 3 PT FGs against Carolina last Saturday. That jumps out to me as the biggest concern with this team - shooting. In the 75 - 65 Duke win over Syracuse, we shot 9-29 (31%) on 3s with Alex O'Connell leading the way at 5-8. A big key to Duke winning the ACC Championship will be someone stepping up and consistently knocking down outside shots for three games. It could be Alex or Jack White or Tre Jones, preferably it would be two or all three of them but it has to be one of them. A player outside the Big 3 has to provide some offense.

TM: Yeah, Syracuse probably deserves more respect from Duke fans, as the Orange have beaten Duke 4 times since joining the ACC in 2014. If Duke can get past Cuse, I don't mind another game with UNC. The fact that Duke has defended them so well in two games without Zion suggests to me we'll probably defending them well with Zion. At that point, it just becomes about improving our offensive efficiency against UNC a bit, and no better way to do that than to insert someone like Zion who's shooting 75% from 2-pt range into the lineup.

Louisville would also make me comfortable as a semifinal opponent. I believe we "solved" them in the big comeback win at the Yum Center. We can pressure that team into turnovers, and I think we would do it again if given the chance.

Rotation and Bench Players

BG: Moving on to discussing the rotation and bench players, Alex O'Connell "should" be the fifth starter which leaves Jack White and Javin DeLaurier to come in off the bench. Jordan Goldwire could see a few spot minutes, most likely during the 1st half. If Goldwire sees any significant playing time it probably means Duke has a perimeter player or two in foul trouble.

I like Jack White due to his versatility to substitute at multiple positions. If his shot is falling, his minutes will increase. I view one aspect of the rotation/bench players discussion as a choice between Alex O'Connell's offense or Jack White's defense and rebounding. Coach K will give both ample opportunity early in games then stick with whoever has the hot hand and is making an impact.

Javin DeLaurier will see time in the post allowing Zion (yes, I am going all in on the assumption Zion will play in the ACCT) a breather as he re-acclimates after sitting out with the knee injury. DeLaurier needs to stay out of foul trouble.

Troublemaker, what are your thoughts on how Coach K will manage the rotation? Three games in three days can be challenging.

TM: Bob, I agree that with Bolden out, it'll be interesting to see which of Alex, Jack, and Javin play the most in any particular game alongside the four main freshmen of Zion, RJ, Tre, and Cam. I also agree that beyond those 7 guys, we're probably talking about spot minutes for JGold and possibly 1-minute stints for Joey and Vrank if someone needs a breather. I think Coach K will be okay riding 7 to an ACC Championship; if fatigue is an issue, he's more likely to use zone to rest those 7 guys (and/or to prevent further foul trouble) for small segments of the game than he is to expand the rotation.

Bob, one slight disagreement I have is that I expect Javin to start, not Alex. While I'm in love with Zion-at-center "death lineups," I don't believe Coach K will start out games that way. Javin replaces Marques as the starting center, and Zion shifts Alex back to the bench where Alex had been until Zion got injured. I suspect that, on average, Jack will play the more minutes than Javin and Alex. As you noted, his rebounding and defense (include nice rim protection) are great, and he can occasionally hit a 3 unlike Javin.

Zion Williamson Returns!

TM: Bob, let's talking about a very exciting topic next: Zion's return! I'm with you in going all-in on the assumption that Zion will play.

What impacts do you think Zion will have on Duke's offense and defense? What effects will he have on RJ, Cam, Tre, and the rest of his teammates?

BG: I'm optimistic Zion's reintegration into the line up will be seamless. Counting the Carolina game in which he was hurt, Zion missed six games. This is a totally different scenario than 2011 when Duke had to reintegrate Kyrie Irving after he missed 26 games. Zion was hurt on February 20th, while Kyrie was hurt on December 4th.

On defense, Zion is really effective executing the double team to create turnovers. His impact will be to make a difference in Duke converting turnovers into transition points. With Bolden out, Zion's return ensures Duke has a rim protector available.

On offense, Zion immediately gives Duke another 20 point scoring option. He is an inside presence which allows Duke to play inside out, which creates both easy baskets on the block and open looks on the perimeter. It is almost impossible to stop Zion without a double team so his ability to pass out of the double team to an open teammate creates scoring opportunities.

As for his impact on Cam, RJ, Tre and the rest of his teammates, Zion makes everyone around him better. RJ and Tre will find the lane less crowded when they drive as two defenders will be focused on Zion; Cam, Alex and Jack will benefit from having open looks on 3 PT FG attempts due to Duke playing inside out.

As you state, the return of Zion is an exciting topic to discuss. Is it Thursday night yet?

TM: Bob, I can hardly wait for Thursday night! I think you make a great point about Zion helping Duke return to being a turnover-forcing machine. While Duke has remained overall effective on D in the 6 games Zion missed, the one defensive stat that really came down for Duke was turnovers forced. It'll be nice to have Zion's big mitts out there deflecting balls.

On offense, I don't think Zion solves any spacing issues, unfortunately. His magic is really just that as one of college basketball's best finishers ever, an incredible 75% shooter from 2-pt range, he scores at historically efficient levels *despite* crowded lanes. Our team just fits together poorly on offense without enough shooters around (but at the same time fits together beautifully on defense), and we have to rely on Zion's individual brilliance on offense to score effectively in the halfcourt.

Zion also puts Cam into a more proper role for him. I posted the stats in another thread, but Cam had a nice run of efficient games until Zion got injured, and during that run of games Cam shot way more 3s than 2s. With Zion out, Cam's had to do much more creating in 2-pt range, and his 2-pt attempts have gone up since. Cam's not a good enough finisher or ball-handler to create in traffic in 2-pt range without giving the ball away. Hopefully with Zion back, we'll see Cam go back to being mostly a 3-pt shooter.

Bracketology - What Does Duke Need to Accomplish to Meet Our Seeding Goals?

BG: A #1 seed is our goal and I believe Duke has to make it to the Championship game to lock up that goal. That means beating Carolina on Friday night. The loser of Duke - Carolina most likely falls to a #2 seed. Now, if we win the ACC Championship, being the overall #1 comes into play.

Duke, Virginia and Carolina are all seeking #1 seeds so the ACC Tournament is by default a playoff of sorts. Assuming the top seeds advance, which is a big assumption, the two teams who play on Saturday night are in great shape to secure a #1 seed.

If Duke loses on Thursday or Friday, we risk not only falling to the 2 line but being shipped out West. The ACCT might not be as important in the 21st Century as it was during my youth in the 60s and 70s, but it is pretty darn important this week as Duke looks to show the selection committee the losses incurred with Zion out injured are not representative of the Duke team that will take the court during March Madness.

TM: Can't argue with anything there, Bob. Duke should be in control of our destiny.

In case we're wrong -- although I don't think we are -- Duke fans could also root against Kentucky and Michigan St in their conference tourneys. And maybe if one wants to be extra, extra, EXTRA sure, one could also root against Tennessee, Michigan, and LSU as well. But I think two wins get us a 1-seed.

[camion]

I'm glad you mentioned health. That might be the Argentinosaurus in museum.

[JasonEvans]

I'm glad you mentioned health. That might be the Argentinosaurus in museum.

[Utley]

Another great job - thanks guys!

I worry less about Zion reintegrating with the team than the need for Zion to return to playing at the elite level he was prior to his injury. Anyone else concerned that he is either rusty or potentially a little cautious fully pushing his knee? One of the key ingredients of his success is how hard he plays. It’s another reason why getting 2 or 3 games in and getting past all that could be so helpful here for the Big Dance.

[Kedsy]

The bad news, as you state, is we will miss Bolden on the glass.

Great job, guys. I agree with most of what you say in your excellent Phase post. One thing I disagree on is the above quoted statement. The glass is not where we'll miss Marques. He was an abysmal rebounder in the pre-ACC schedule, but even during conference play his rebounding has been barely adequate. His 14.4% defensive rebounding percentage in conference play would rank in the bottom 10 of all Duke centers since they started tracking offensive and defensive rebounding in 1987. His full-season DR% of 13.2% is even more embarrassing.

Where we will miss Marques is as a rim-protector, where his 8.8% block percentage is the best Duke's had since Shelden Williams graduated. We'll also miss his ability to be big defensively and still switch onto guards for short periods when necessary, as well as his 128.9 oRtg, albeit at a low usage rate. And as Bob wisely mentioned, as frontcourt depth (since Javin is very foul prone).

Bob, one slight disagreement I have is that I expect Javin to start, not Alex.

I agree with Troublemaker. When Javin stays out of foul trouble (not often, I know), he's a defensive dynamo, and while he's limited offensively, he's very efficient. I understand everyone's desire for more shooting prowess in our starting five, but this team's identity is defense, and (absent Marques) with Javin in the game our defense is far superior than the alternatives.

BG: I'm optimistic Zion's reintegration into the line up will be seamless. Counting the Carolina game in which he was hurt, Zion missed six games. This is a totally different scenario than 2011 when Duke had to reintegrate Kyrie Irving after he missed 26 games. Zion was hurt on February 20th, while Kyrie was hurt on December 4th.

Another difference between now and the Kyrie situation, is in Kyrie's absence Nolan Smith developed into an All-American at Kyrie's position. When Kyrie came back, both of them seemed unsure how to handle the fact that one of them suddenly had to play off-ball. This will absolutely not be an issue with Zion, as nobody stepped up in his absence at his position. Plus Zion has so much gravity that everyone else on the team gets better just because Zion requires so much of our opponents' attention.

BG: A #1 seed is our goal and I believe Duke has to make it to the Championship game to lock up that goal. That means beating Carolina on Friday night.

I wonder if Duke making the championship game will really be enough. I know it should be enough, I just wonder if it will be.

Another great job - thanks guys!

I worry less about Zion reintegrating with the team than the need for Zion to return to playing at the elite level he was prior to his injury. Anyone else concerned that he is either rusty or potentially a little cautious fully pushing his knee? One of the key ingredients of his success is how hard he plays. It’s another reason why getting 2 or 3 games in and getting past all that could be so helpful here for the Big Dance.

Yeah, I agree. I've been a tad worried about this. Part of Zion's amazingness has to do with the knowledge (his, ours, and the opponents') that he can do superhuman things. What if he's not sure if he can anymore? What if he plays tentative? Alternatively, what if he tries too hard to make up for lost time? We won't know any of it until we see him on the court, hopefully tomorrow.

[DukieInBrasil]

I wonder if Duke making the championship game will really be enough. I know it should be enough, I just wonder if it will be.

Yeah, i'm not sure if making the ACCT championship game is enough to get a #1 seed. Kinda depends on if UVA also makes it. I think if Duke wins over UVA in the ACCT championship game then Duke gets a #1 seed b/c A) it will mean beating SYR (decent not great win), (probs) UNC (which would somewhat nullify at least one of the losses to UNC) AND (probs) UVA (a general consensus #1 seed, for the 3rd time), and that alone would warrant a #1 seed even without the rest of Duke's gaudy record and B) it would show the committee that the losses Duke incurred w/o Zion (and to a lesser extent, the loss w/o Tre) should not be considered as consequential as they otherwise might be, and C) Duke's record even withe losses w/o Zion and Tre is still one of the best in the country.
If they make the championship game and then lose to UVA maybe they could still get a #1 seed, especially considering Gonzaga lost, but if they were to lose in the championship game to someone other than UVA the picture gets murkier.

[Bob Green]

Great job, guys. I agree with most of what you say in your excellent Phase post.

Thanks! These phase posts are a lot of fun.

I wonder if Duke making the championship game will really be enough. I know it should be enough, I just wonder if it will be.

Unless there is a major upset Thursday and/or Friday, the ACC is in great position to get two #1 seeds so I believe making the championship game will be enough. However, I'm all for winning the championship and removing all doubt.

[Neals384]

Another great job - thanks guys!

I worry less about Zion reintegrating with the team than the need for Zion to return to playing at the elite level he was prior to his injury. Anyone else concerned that he is either rusty or potentially a little cautious fully pushing his knee? One of the key ingredients of his success is how hard he plays. It’s another reason why getting 2 or 3 games in and getting past all that could be so helpful here for the Big Dance.

It's not well known, since Zion has so many other superpowers, that rust will not stick to his chiseled frame

[superdave]

Javin DeLaurier 68
Jordan Goldwire 50
Jack White 27
Alex O'Connell 14
Antonio Vrankovic 10

[devildeac]

Another set of interesting facts from an espn sidebar:

"David M. Hale
ESPN Staff Writer

Duke had 44 points in the paint vs Cuse on Thu - tied for most Cuse allowed this year.

Duke had 50 in the paint vs UNC on Fri - most the Heels allowed this year.

Duke had 42 in the paint tonight - tied for the most FSU allowed this year.

That's something."

More than something; that's Zion-esque.

[BandAlum83]

Another great job - thanks guys!

I worry less about Zion reintegrating with the team than the need for Zion to return to playing at the elite level he was prior to his injury. Anyone else concerned that he is either rusty or potentially a little cautious fully pushing his knee? One of the key ingredients of his success is how hard he plays. It’s another reason why getting 2 or 3 games in and getting past all that could be so helpful here for the Big Dance.

I wonder if Duke making the championship game will really be enough. I know it should be enough, I just wonder if it will be.

Yeah, I agree. I've been a tad worried about this. Part of Zion's amazingness has to do with the knowledge (his, ours, and the opponents') that he can do superhuman things. What if he's not sure if he can anymore? What if he plays tentative? Alternatively, what if he tries too hard to make up for lost time? We won't know any of it until we see him on the court, hopefully tomorrow.

Glad we answered all these concerns

[Acymetric]

Another set of interesting facts from an espn sidebar:

"David M. Hale
ESPN Staff Writer

Duke had 44 points in the paint vs Cuse on Thu - tied for most Cuse allowed this year.

Duke had 50 in the paint vs UNC on Fri - most the Heels allowed this year.

Duke had 42 in the paint tonight - tied for the most FSU allowed this year.

That's something."

More than something; that's Zion-esque.

Well...we certainly aren't getting our points on the perimeter this year!

[devildeac]

Well...we certainly aren't getting our points on the perimeter this year!

Well played.

[53n206]

When last did we feel comfortable that we were going to get points from the perimeter? Redick?

[Wahoo2000]

When last did we feel comfortable that we were going to get points from the perimeter? Redick?

Do you only feel comfortable if you have an all-time great shooter out there? I would think most teams would be thrilled with a perimeter of Allen, Kennard, and Tatum (that Duke had in 2017). If you don't feel comfortable in those guys' contributions (including shooting from 3), I think your standards might be a TOUCH too high.

[CDu]

When last did we feel comfortable that we were going to get points from the perimeter? Redick?

I have felt comfortable with our perimeter shooting/scoring options nearly every year other than maybe last year and definitely this year.

Thankfully this year we are awesome at defense and Zioning our opponents.

[Acymetric]

I have felt comfortable with our perimeter shooting/scoring options nearly every year other than maybe last year and definitely this year.

Thankfully this year we are awesome at defense and Zioning our opponents.

Pretty much...Duke has lacked a lot of things over the years but 3 point shooting has almost never been one of them.

As to your second point...yes those are certainly two of our main strengths.

[CDu]

Pretty much...Duke has lacked a lot of things over the years but 3 point shooting has almost never been one of them.

As to your second point...yes those are certainly two of our main strengths.

Yeah, I mean think about it. We just beat a top-15 team by double digits despite shooting 2-14 from 3.

I have seen people say “if we can play like we did against Kentucky we can win this thing.” Hogwash I say; I think we could win the tourney without making another 3 this season. That is how good we are at the other stuff. If we play like we did against Kentucky, we will not just win the title; we would obliterate the field.

We have beaten two of the one seeds already, twice doing so without a starter. We barely lost to the other #1 back in November. We have beaten a 2, a 3, a 4 twice, a 5. There isn’t any team we can’t beat, even considering our shooting woes.

[ns7]

Yeah, I mean think about it. We just beat a top-15 team by double digits despite shooting 2-14 from 3.

I have seen people say “if we can play like we did against Kentucky we can win this thing.” Hogwash I say; I think we could win the tourney without making another 3 this season. That is how good we are at the other stuff. If we play like we did against Kentucky, we will not just win the title; we would obliterate the field.

We have beaten two of the one seeds already, twice doing so without a starter. We barely lost to the other #1 back in November. We have beaten a 2, a 3, a 4 twice, a 5. There isn’t any team we can’t beat, even considering our shooting woes.

I agree, but we have a much lower margin for error if we shoot ~35% from 3. For example, we beat UVA by 10 on the road despite having a bad day on defense. I worry about a game where the other team gets hot from 3. Not an issue if we score at will (which we would if we could make 3s).

[duketaylor]

Good discourse here. I think we'll survive the first weekend. I should b in DC for the 2nd weekend. If Maryland and VT are both there, that will b something.