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  1. #1

    Horse Racing - 2019

    Anybody up for some horse racing discussion for the year?

    The derby is coming up in 1.5 months.

    The derby picture is a bit of a mess.

    Baffert sent his top 2 horses Game (of Thrones) Winner and Improbable to the Rebel stakes, but they had 2 strikes against them yesterday.
    1) They had an erratic training schedule because of all the rain in California and the erratic track schedule at Santa Anita
    2) Cancelling of the Santa Pasqual and the late decision to go to the Rebel in Arkansas

    These 2 horses were also making their first appearances of the year now with less than 2 months before the Derby. It's not like years ago when horses would get 3 or 4 prep races in for their 3 year old year, or even Smarty Jones who just started as a 2YO and raced right into the Derby.

    The 2YOs will be making an appearance soon too. We're all waiting for those American Pharoah 2YOs, but the better ones will not appear until Saratoga/Delmar in August anyway.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, DC area
    What's going on with what I've heard about horses put down in CA?

    -jk

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by -jk View Post
    What's going on with what I've heard about horses put down in CA?

    -jk
    Well, it is real.
    Abnormally high number of injuries and fractures (resulting in horses put down).
    The basic theory is that the huge amount of rain has weakened the base and cushion of the track to the point where the horses who exert themselves fully were apparently running more like on concrete than a soft track.
    And today's breed is 'softer' than it was 30 years ago.
    They did a bunch of tests and came to no conclusions, but most of the horse world suspects the above scenario.

    Santa Anita will start training again today, so hopefully whatever they did, with an improvement in weather, horses will be safer. Of course, some tracks have to be above and below average. But Santa Anita was way above average.

    Some other Derby hopefuls have been affected even more than Game Winner and Improbable. Mucho Gusto is out there too (He is the only descendant of Holy Bull that I've noticed worth a dam [pun intended] although that usually limits your prospects for classic distances).
    Just saw that Mucho Gusto will be going to the Sunland Derby (usually easy pickings for a really good horse).

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Thomasville, NC
    Haven't looked at the Derby hopefuls for this year yet. I will watch for your posts however.

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by Devilwin View Post
    Haven't looked at the Derby hopefuls for this year yet. I will watch for your posts however.
    Louisiana Derby (Fair Grounds) this Saturday and Sunland Derby (Sunland) this Sunday are coming up.

    The best 3YO I've seen this year has been War Of Will, who will next start in the Florida Derby (Mar 30th).

    Expect some of these late starters to improve with their next start (no kidding..).

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  6. #6

    My Pix for Saturday

    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Louisiana Derby (Fair Grounds) this Saturday and Sunland Derby (Sunland) this Sunday are coming up.

    The best 3YO I've seen this year has been War Of Will, who will next start in the Florida Derby (Mar 30th).

    Expect some of these late starters to improve with their next start (no kidding..).

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Here are the PPs, courtesy of Brisnet, for the Louisiana Derby:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1837290
    Overwhelming favorite is the best performer so far this year, War of Will.
    Even if he wins, unless it is by a country mile, I don't know what that will tell you against this pitiful bunch

    Here are the PPs, courtesy of Brisnet, for the Sunland Derby (on Sunday):
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1843347
    Much more interesting race.

    Now consider that Mucho Gusto may have come from eratic training schedules at Santa Anita.
    The contenders are Mucho Gusto, a son of first crop sire Mucho Macho Man who is more precocious than his talented sire who never really grew into his immense body. And only beaten by what might be the second best horse in the country (Improbable) and in his trainer's barn; so he didn't have the top Jockey or attention. Broodmare sire is great, but for grass. If raining, this horse is picked up by the slop. <weather looks good though>
    Anothertwistafate who proved he belonged with a smashing triumph in his last outing.
    Cutting Humor, ran a big number 2 races ago against a top horse, but last race threw in a stinker. Can throw it out. Is a Pletcher horse.

    I'd pick Mucho Gusto. Has been running big numbers from the beginning. Has a distance pedigree. Intended to run in Santa Pasqual before SA closed unexpectedly. I don't know if Anothertwistafate had any quality in his race, and that was a huge jump in performance; has top line pedigree of last year's triple crown winner, so who knows.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  7. #7
    Well, not much chatter on this thread, but I'll try another week to see if there is any interest.

    Weak is what I'll call my predications.
    War Of Will had what others suggested was a bothered start and never really was into the race.
    Country House won by not quite a country mile.

    In the Sunland Derby Mucho Gusto cut the race, but true to his miler heritage, spit the bit in the stretch and finished third.
    Cutting Humor took the laurels, with a slowly grinding Anothertwistafate running out of track, just a neck or so back.

    Without a lot of races, over the past few years, there are many form reversals for many of these horses.
    Only a few horses, like Justify, put in consistent efforts.

    So on tap for this week is the Florida Derby, and if you are up early and want to see a non-contender entry into the KY Derby, the UAE Derby from Dubai.
    There are a couple of good horses entered for Saturday.
    Holy Bull winner Harvey Wallbanger has the 3 hole, and a 2 race win streak. (picks up 5 lbs).
    Code Of Honor, winner of the Fountain of Youth stakes, has the 9th post position, and picks up 6 lbs.
    The undefeated Maximum Security has a 3 race win streak and comes in from a 50k optional claimer. All sprints, but has some distance in pedigree.
    Bourbon War was second to Code of Honor in the Fountain of Youth, and was Closing fast; could this longer race help? Top Jock this side of Mike Smith, Irad Ortiz.
    Favorite from Fountain of Youth, Hidden Scroll, spit the bit after leading the whole race, but they give him an excuse (bumped). Change jockeys.

    I'll pick Bourbon War. He has a better post. Needing the points does wonders for the effort. The best jockey in the race.
    Here is the Past Performance, courtesy of Brisnet:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=2006886

    I'll edit in anything about the UAE Derby if I see it. It might be mixed in with the Dubai Cup stuff. Watch it early Saturday morning if interested.

    The UAE Derby can be found on page 16 of this file, courtesy of Equibase:
    http://www.equibase.com/content/rotd/dubai.pdf

    the Dubai World Cup is on Page 29.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Last edited by DevilHorse; 03-28-2019 at 08:49 AM.

  8. #8
    Bourbon War was second to Code of Honor in the Fountain of Youth, and was Closing fast; could this longer race help?

    I'll pick Bourbon War.
    DevilHorse[/QUOTE]

    Iíll bet on any horse named Bourbon War. Really hoping the proposed re-opening of horse racing and betting at Colonial Downs here in Virginia takes off. Always a fun way to spend an afternoon.

  9. #9

    <Correction>

    I tried to recall the winner of the Lousiana Derby from memory and got it wrong.
    It wasn't Country House, but By My Standard. Apologies.
    Country House finished 4th.

    In the UAE Derby this weekend, the race is 9.5 furlongs (not easy to find in the program).
    The favorite is the 6-Divine Image, a filly who is owned by the ruler of Dubai, and owner of the track, and the winner of the top stable in Dubai (no surprise since it was probably voted on by the track) namely Godolphin Stables, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum. Who is a friend to thoroughbred racing with all of the money he puts into it.
    This is a very nice filly who has won 3 of 4, and has raced her last 3 races at this track (horses for courses).
    A number of the horses in the race are coming in from other countries, or are turfers, or both.
    An intriguing horse at 6-1 is Jahbath who comes in from the UK and has been very sharp. Winning his last 4 races (and 4 of 5 lifetime). All turf races, so you never know. But this is a step up in competition.
    You gotta go with the home team.. Divine Image.

    Larry

  10. #10

    4/13/2019 - Arkansas Derby, Lexington Stakes

    Folks,

    Tomorrow is the last big chance for horses to move up in the points race, or to get some needed conditioning, towards the Kentucky Derby (not thinking about the Derby Trial which is usually a week before the Derby).

    The horse that is #20 into the KY Derby has 19 points. There are a slew (pun intended) of horses that are racing tomorrow that are below 19 points, including: Anothertwistafate, Sueno, Harvey Wallbanger, Improbable, Six Shooter, Galilean, Gray Attempt, Zenden, Roiland, Knicks Go, and Country House. Plus others with just above 19 points who will fall below the line once points are distributed, like Omaha Beach. And horses with no points at all.

    In the Arkansas Derby, Improbable needed the last race, but Long Range Toddy won the Rebel with a big kick. Omaha Beach just beat Game Winner, who came up short again in his last time out in the Santa Anita Derby (seconditis in his second year). There will be a lot of horses going for it in this intriguing race. I would think a Omaha Beach/Improbable/Long Range Toddy Triple box would be fun here. With Galilean as a possible spoiler.
    Note that there is a chance of a sloppy track. Omaha Beach shows that he steps up in the slop. Best hold your bets till late!

    In the Lexington, Anothertwistafate looks like a tough horse. In the absence of speed in the race, he might just take the lead. Several of these horses are stalkers (like Anothertwistafate), but he has the best numbers. Shang may be tough from the 1 hole, with top jockey Irad Ortiz.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Last edited by DevilHorse; 04-12-2019 at 07:56 AM.

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Thomasville, NC
    Game Winner looks good, but watch out for Maximus Mischief. Won three races by 17 lengths and owns three of the top eleven Beyer figures from this year's crop. Picking him..

  12. #12

    Slight Problem

    Quote Originally Posted by Devilwin View Post
    Game Winner looks good, but watch out for Maximus Mischief. Won three races by 17 lengths and owns three of the top eleven Beyer figures from this year's crop. Picking him..
    Slight Problem in your attempted bet, MM is not in the top 30 for KY Derby points.
    The only top point getters that are not likely to start are the Japanese and Saudi Arabian entries, and they might still ship. (everyone who can be in the derby will pay the starting fee, just to have a shot at immortality and a top stud fee).
    Maximus Mischief has started only 1 time this year, and that was in the Holy Bull on 2/2/19 where he was third, one length back to Harvey Wallbanger (who stunk his next two races).
    The race was set up for him (MM), stalking a hot pace.
    I don't see how Maximus even gets in the gate with only the Derby Trial left, and that is a week before the Derby. I don't know if they offer points for that, and nobody from the Derby Trial wins the Derby. And he won't be in shape being out for 3 months if he did not race in the DT (assuming 20 horses decided fame and fortune weren't for them).

    Game Winner is tough, and might be strong enough to survive the mile and a quarter, with a hot pace like he will get in the Derby.
    Omaha Beach looks like a tough minded horse; every time he looks like he will give in, he finds more. If it is a wet track, again I think he is worth a bet.
    He seems to be tough minded like Affirmed was. That is one tough pony and he gives bettors their money's worth.

    Maybe MM will try the Illinois Derby. Lots of money and much less competition on that route.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  13. #13

    Maximus Retired

    Devilwin

    Just over the wire, and not in a good way (depending on your perspective)..

    http://live.drf.com/nuggets/47712-re...king-stud-deal

    Larry
    DevilHorse

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