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  1. #61
    Join Date
    Nov 2010
    Location
    NYC
    Not sure how KenPom's SOS rating compares to others but he has UNC at 3rd toughest, Kansas at #1 and us at 14th.

    Penn State had the 2nd toughest SOS...

  2. #62
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Winston Salem, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    In one of Coach K's interviews recently (I think it was one on GoDuke), he mentioned that Duke spent the past week not only re-drilling stuff they used to run before Zion got hurt but also installing new stuff that they would've installed had Zion not gotten hurt. (Obviously against Cuse we had to run zone offense and not any of the new stuff.) I'm wondering if one of those things was to run more 4/5 ball screens for Zion; that is, have Javin come set a high ball screen for Zion, which in this case, would force Brooks and Maye out of their comfort zone. Usually "4"s don't have a handle like Zion, so the opposing team's two bigs aren't used to having to defend a ball screen in tandem; usually it's a perimeter player guarding the ball-handler and the big man hedging or dropping, for example.
    Thanks TM for that information on the Coach K interview. I like the 4/5 ball screen and any other set plays for Zion and wouldn't mind seeing some picknrolls for RJ and Zion. Just be ready for the flops that the cheats will throw at us. My biggest wish is that TV Teddy is no where to be found. GoDuke!

  3. #63
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by moonpie23 View Post
    I'm not confident.

    UNC is rolling. Love that Z came back with a vengeance, but, he can't do it alone. Maye won't score 30, but he hardly EVER scores 30...that's not their game.

    You can tell that they are sick to death of hearing about "but zion didn't play"

    If we turn the ball over like we did last night, we have a triple scoop of loser on our faces tonight.

    somebody better step up...
    Yeah, well, he DIDNíT play. Itís not conjecture. Why would they be sick of hearing an obvious fact? I can tell you with certainty that Blue Devils fans (and maybe Dukeís players, too) are sick of UNC fans perversely using Zionís injury against Duke in claiming that him being out and the team then not playing at the level they were before his injury PROVES they are not a good team ó that Duke is simply a one-man army.

    Itís convoluted, nonsensical thinking, but they assert it with 100% confidence and certainty. And that is even after Duke played them close at the Smith Center without Zion. Itís a ludicrous argument. Zion is part of the freaking team. You canít talk about how good or bad Dukeís team is without Zion. What is the point of that? It just makes no sense. I swear, UNC has some of the dumbest, most pig-headed fans in all of sports. How did they collectively become so ignorant?
    Last edited by Steven43; 03-15-2019 at 10:22 AM.
       

  4. #64
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    Atlanta
    hopefully we saved all our shots for tonight. Having strong shooting performances from everyone would be much appreciated. Having two of White, AOC, Tre, and Cam making 3+ threes would be huge.

  5. #65
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Mechanicsburg, PA
    Quote Originally Posted by J4Kop99 View Post
    Not sure how KenPom's SOS rating compares to others but he has UNC at 3rd toughest, Kansas at #1 and us at 14th.

    Penn State had the 2nd toughest SOS...
    Doubt Kenpom accurately discounts playing Duke without Zion twice (and once without Bolden). Our out of conference and conference schedules had more difficult games especially given our injuries. Maybe our cupcakes were a little worse...
       

  6. #66
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by AGDukesky View Post
    Doubt Kenpom accurately discounts playing Duke without Zion twice (and once without Bolden). Our out of conference and conference schedules had more difficult games especially given our injuries. Maybe our cupcakes were a little worse...
    yeah, trying to wrap SOS up into a single number is a bit of a fools errand.


    "If you don't address the things you're not doing well when you're winning the winning will eventually stop."

    -David Cutcliffe

  7. #67
    While I wouldn't call myself confident, I think Duke matches up a lot better with unc when we have Zion.

    Zion >>>> Maye (and, as much as it pains me to admit this, Maye is a really good player)
    Javin = Brooks
    Honorable Cam < Dishonorable Cam (though it's closer than many think)
    RJ >> Williams (unless aided by zebras)
    Tre > Coby (maybe biased by the correct shade of blue glasses)
    Good Bench > Naughty Bench
    K >> Roy

  8. #68
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Correct side of the Durham/CH border
    Quote Originally Posted by azzefkram View Post
    While I wouldn't call myself confident, I think Duke matches up a lot better with unc when we have Zion.

    Zion >>>> Maye (and, as much as it pains me to admit this, Maye is a really good player)
    Javin = Brooks
    Honorable Cam < Dishonorable Cam (though it's closer than many think)
    RJ >> Williams (unless aided by zebras)
    Tre > Coby (maybe biased by the correct shade of blue glasses)
    Good Bench > Naughty Bench
    K >> Roy
    You forgot:
    Brotherhood >>> The Cheater Way
    ďCoach said no 3s.Ē - Zion on The Block

  9. #69
    Join Date
    Feb 2016
    Location
    Atlanta
    Quote Originally Posted by AGDukesky View Post
    Doubt Kenpom accurately discounts playing Duke without Zion twice (and once without Bolden). Our out of conference and conference schedules had more difficult games especially given our injuries. Maybe our cupcakes were a little worse...
    The strength of our schedule doesnít change because a player on our team isnít available.

    The strength of our team that goes into determining our opponents strength of schedule is based on our body of work. So SOS can change as our opponents go through the year.

    For example, as Ky continued winning through the year it helped our SOS. If three of their starters were lost for half the year and they lost 15 in a row, our SOS would be weaker, even though we played them while they were at full strength

  10. #70
    I think duke should start tonight with Zion, RJ, Tre, Cam, and Goldwire (Yes Goldwire). I think Goldwire will be more effective on defense than anyone else we can throw out there. Javin isn't doing anything for me and when Jack is not hitting from outside he isn't doing anything either.

  11. #71
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by azzefkram View Post
    While I wouldn't call myself confident, I think Duke matches up a lot better with unc when we have Zion.

    Zion >>>> Maye (and, as much as it pains me to admit this, Maye is a really good player)
    Javin = Brooks
    Honorable Cam < Dishonorable Cam (though it's closer than many think)
    RJ >> Williams (unless aided by zebras)
    Tre > Coby (maybe biased by the correct shade of blue glasses)
    Good Bench > Naughty Bench

    K >> Roy
    ooof. I think those glasses are so darkly tinted you might get a ticket. Credit where credit is due...coby white is having a fantastic campaign.

    I'd be willing to bet UNC's bench puts up better numbers than ours...given like 95% of our scoring comes from 3 guys.


    "If you don't address the things you're not doing well when you're winning the winning will eventually stop."

    -David Cutcliffe

  12. #72
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Location
    Asheville
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    ooof. I think those glasses are so darkly tinted you might get a ticket. Credit where credit is due...coby white is having a fantastic campaign.

    I'd be willing to bet UNC's bench puts up better numbers than ours...given like 95% of our scoring comes from 3 guys.
    100% agree.

    I was going to say about the same on both points.

    Coby is VERY good, and keeps getting better. Tre is solid, but has clearly regressed.
    2015 DBR Rosterbation Champion

  13. #73
    This is the most I've wanted to win a non-NCAA tournament Duke basketball game in a long time. Maybe since going into the 82-50 game in 2010 when we hadn't won a home carolina game in 4 years

    Ever since Zion went down, probably 30% of my Duke basketball brain has been thinking about him getting a healthy shot against the holes. He just opens up angles and options no one else in the country does, and takes the exact ones away that UNC has killed us with. Here's hoping he stays healthy and we avoid one of the bad outlier performances (they go nuclear from 3, we go nuclear winter from 3, etc.) - knocking on all the wood

    What a day - it's a day like this that I'm incredibly grateful to be a Duke fan. Most never get to have the joy of caring so much about something as fun as this.
    One for the other ring finger!

  14. #74
    Quote Originally Posted by Dukebasketball2020 View Post
    I think duke should start tonight with Zion, RJ, Tre, Cam, and Goldwire (Yes Goldwire). I think Goldwire will be more effective on defense than anyone else we can throw out there. Javin isn't doing anything for me and when Jack is not hitting from outside he isn't doing anything either.
    Javin has been playing well (including last night) and Duke has defended UNC very well the first two games; we could see JGold tonight but not for the reasons you listed.

    Also, Jack might have a mental block or match up poorly against Syracuse (Coach actually gave him a DNP when we played up @Cuse), but I wouldn't be surprised if he bounces back tonight.

  15. #75
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    North Carolina
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    No difference, imo. White hit 4 threes against us -- two was Javin giving him too much room, one was Cam giving him too much room. And one -- the first one -- was just a nasty Harden-esque stepback on Cam that perhaps deserves a hat tip. Generally, we need to press up more outside and make him beat us with drives. Especially if Zion is back there around the basket. White was 4-8 in two-pt range, which is decent but isn't going to beat us, and he only shot one FT. Make him beat us from two.
    Thanks for your reply. I realized after typing my question that a major factor was that we usually have Zion and/or Bolden in the game to provide (formidable) secondary help if the primary defender is beat. For that game, we had neither.

  16. #76
    Really don't know what to make of Duke right now and this game in particular. For long stretches, Duke looked both dominant and awful against Syracuse, who was playing without their best player. Was that due to their incredible shooting? Was it due to Duke's sloppiness? Was it due to the way that the zone that Syracuse runs is particularly difficult for this particular Duke team?

    It seems pretty clear that Duke's defense was ok in the first two games against UNC. It was good enough to win. The offense was the thing that really needed to improve. Now Duke has a third scorer that is incredibly efficient at the rim, an area where UNC struggles. And Duke added its best rebounder back into the fold. And a player that can generate turnovers, another area where UNC struggles. And a player that put the opposing bigs into foul trouble.

    This UNC team is not nearly as deep in the post as it has been in recent years. After Brooks and Maye, there just isn't much there. Sterling Manley isn't back from his injuries in January and hasn't been all that effective this year anyway. Brandon Huffman has barely played and is even less effective. Against Louisville, Brooks picked up 4 fouls in 23 minutes while Nassir Little had 3 fouls and 2 turnovers in 16 minutes. And that was in a game in which Louisville shot just 8 free throws. How much pressure will Zion apply to those two throughout the game? And given his physical gifts, will the refs call a tight game?

    This is probably a dumb thing to note, but the reason why UNC won last week was that they shot the ball well. That's usually how it works, right? In particular, Kenny Williams was 4-7 from 3 and scored 18 points, double his usual output and his season high. He's scored in single figures in 8 of the past 10 games, a stretch where he's shot the ball 26.2% from 3-point range. I'm not saying that UNC's win was a fluke last week. It's just that they got some extreme luck from one of their players when they absolutely needed it.

    So I think this one comes down to shooting. Duke has to hold 2 of the 3 of Coby White, Luke Maye, and Cam Johnson in check and then hope that their other guys have an outlier game. The margin of error for Duke is more favorable this time around.

  17. #77
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Mechanicsburg, PA
    Quote Originally Posted by BandAlum83 View Post
    The strength of our schedule doesnít change because a player on our team isnít available.

    The strength of our team that goes into determining our opponents strength of schedule is based on our body of work. So SOS can change as our opponents go through the year.

    For example, as Ky continued winning through the year it helped our SOS. If three of their starters were lost for half the year and they lost 15 in a row, our SOS would be weaker, even though we played them while they were at full strength
    Understood. The point I was addressing was the implication that UNC was hot because of its winning streak and the better overall SOS. Due to the injuries to Duke, it made all of those games a higher probability of losing and not an indication Duke was less ďhotĒ simply by struggling. However, I could have made the point better (and probably still need to).
       

  18. #78
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Oregon
    Quote Originally Posted by Ballboy1998 View Post
    100% of uncís defensive ďplanĒ against Zion and RJ is going to be to flop on every drive. Hopefully RJ learned from experiencing that at the dump and will adjust a bit.
    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    Also, UNC looks good at taking charges. Duke doesn't. With our length, we're more of a blocking team.

    And speaking of charges, the only way UNC stops Zion is with charges, and I guarantee Williams is practicing charges. Williamson, Barrett, and Cam need to be prepared for that. Although with Cam, he's guaranteed at least 1 charge if he drives the ball...
    Special! Get the Flop-A-Matic "Williams" model for just 3 easy payments of $29.99. Call now, and we'll throw in the Flop-A-Matic "Maye" model for free! Just pay P&H.

  19. #79
    Quote Originally Posted by azzefkram View Post
    While I wouldn't call myself confident, I think Duke matches up a lot better with unc when we have Zion.

    Zion >>>> Maye (and, as much as it pains me to admit this, Maye is a really good player)
    Javin = Brooks
    Honorable Cam < Dishonorable Cam (though it's closer than many think)
    RJ >> Williams (unless aided by zebras)
    Tre > Coby (maybe biased by the correct shade of blue glasses)
    Good Bench > Naughty Bench
    K >> Roy
    I love the enthusiasm.

    Seriously, been thinking about how well our defense matches up. Where we have been hurt in the past two games (w/o Zion) is on switches and screens. That changes with Zion in the lineup.

    We can't be sloppy with the ball and we have to get rebounds. I would love to see us demolish them, but in the end, win and advance

  20. #80
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Chesapeake, VA.
    uNC wins this game by getting our stars into foul trouble, which they do by drawing charges. The charge/block pendulum has swung all the way toward charge.

    I hope Coach K is telling EVERYBODY to keep their arms glued to their sides when they drive and to do some jump-stops and floaters in the lane. If RJ, Zion, and/or Cam spend a large amount of time on the bench, we are toast.

    Duke wins this game by keeping White and Johnson from shooting and making a lot of threes, and by not giving the refs reasons to call charging fouls. It also helps to value transition D above almost every other basketball virtue.
    A plane takes off from Baltimore and touches down on Bourbon Street

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