Bolden knee vigil

[kAzE]

Duke leads the nation in blocks per game, period. Marques certainly helps, but it's not really him who "makes us" one of the most formidable defensive teams in the country. We are that with or without him. Obviously we'd all prefer "with," but it's Tre, Zion, and Cam (and to a much lesser extent Javin and Marques) who make us so formidable on D.

Also, while Marques has Duke's highest block% over a full season since Shelden Williams stopped charging rent in Durham, during conference play Javin's block% (7.7%) is higher than Marques's (6.9%). In other words, even when Marques doesn't play, we have an excellent shot blocker (actually we have three, including Zion and Jack).

Not RJ? I know about the lapses he has at times, but he came to Duke with a reputation as a lock down defender, and his excellent defensive rebounding and overall intensity at least give the appearance that he's pretty good on defense. I'm curious what your numbers say, though.

[kako]

I'm not too concerned about UCF. For one thing, they aren't even expected to win against VCU, although that game should be close. For another, they just aren't that good. They got boatshedded by Memphis in their tourney, and the Tigers smacked them around earlier in the season too. Their best win is a road win against a not-that-great Houston, and their only other interesting win is a home win over a 7-seed Cincy (whom they lost to on the road).

Fall is very tall, and he certainly can be a factor defensively around the rim. But he's never faced anyone remotely as difficult to guard as Zion Williamson. He's not terribly mobile, and not very physical. I can imagine Fall getting a block here or there, but I can't imagine him really slowing us down. And he's not an offensive weapon other than catch-and-dunk situations.

Fall could be a factor defensively, especially if Duke can't hit 3s. If Duke played UCF in a 3 game series, I wouldn't worry about it. But in single elimination, anything can happen. Overconfidence is a significant enemy.


If Bolden isn't back, that could mean Vrank has spot duty. The game plan could include drawing fouls on Fall, and perhaps Vrank could help... never thought I would be writing that! But after the UNC game, I have much more confidence in him.

9F

[MChambers]

Fall could be a factor defensively, especially if Duke can't hit 3s. If Duke played UCF in a 3 game series, I wouldn't worry about it. But in single elimination, anything can happen. Overconfidence is a significant enemy.


If Bolden isn't back, that could mean Vrank has spot duty. The game plan could include drawing fouls on Fall, and perhaps Vrank could help... never thought I would be writing that! But after the UNC game, I have much more confidence in him.

9F

Fall is really slow. So slow that there is a lot of doubt he can play in the NBA at 7’6”, 300 lbs. I wouldn’t worry about him in particular. UCF is decent, but not primarily because of Fall.

[CDu]

Not RJ? I know about the lapses he has at times, but he came to Duke with a reputation as a lock down defender, and his excellent defensive rebounding and overall intensity at least give the appearance that he's pretty good on defense. I'm curious what your numbers say, though.

My view of Barrett's play defensively is that he is a solid defensive rebounder but a pretty mediocre defender. When we have breakdowns off the dribble, it seems more often to be his man doing the damage. The stats appear to back this up: he has the second worst DRtg of the regulars and the worst DBPM of the regulars despite his strong DReb% (second among regulars there).

I'm sure he was strong at defense in high school where the competition was weaker and his size/athleticism combo was further advanced than most kids his age. But he hasn't been a plus defender for us.

[jimsumner]

Fall could be a factor defensively, especially if Duke can't hit 3s. If Duke played UCF in a 3 game series, I wouldn't worry about it. But in single elimination, anything can happen. Overconfidence is a significant enemy.


9F

FSU starts a 7-4 center. He barely played against Duke after the first few minutes. Hamilton said that Koumadje was just too slow to be effective against Duke.

A perhaps not irrelevant factoid.

[Reddevil]

Fall could be a factor defensively, especially if Duke can't hit 3s. If Duke played UCF in a 3 game series, I wouldn't worry about it. But in single elimination, anything can happen. Overconfidence is a significant enemy.


If Bolden isn't back, that could mean Vrank has spot duty. The game plan could include drawing fouls on Fall, and perhaps Vrank could help... never thought I would be writing that! But after the UNC game, I have much more confidence in him.

9F

Play small ball and run 'em. Run, run and run some more. Goodbye UCF.

[Kedsy]

Not RJ? I know about the lapses he has at times, but he came to Duke with a reputation as a lock down defender, and his excellent defensive rebounding and overall intensity at least give the appearance that he's pretty good on defense. I'm curious what your numbers say, though.

Defensive stats aren't particularly reliable, so it's hard to say definitively. As CDu mentioned, RJ does poorly in the defensive efficiency metrics (dRating, defensive BPM, and defensive win shares per 40). He's also last among our rotation players in steal% and 6th among our rotation players in block%.

He is a good defensive rebounder, especially for a wing. But overall on defense, I'd put him behind all of our rotation players (even including Jordan) except Alex O'Connell. That said, it may not be a slight against RJ as much as a shout-out to the fact that we have a lot of good defensive players on this team. In other words, if RJ is our 7th best defensive player, our D must be pretty good.

[flyingdutchdevil]

My view of Barrett's play defensively is that he is a solid defensive rebounder but a pretty mediocre defender. When we have breakdowns off the dribble, it seems more often to be his man doing the damage. The stats appear to back this up: he has the second worst DRtg of the regulars and the worst DBPM of the regulars despite his strong DReb% (second among regulars there).

I'm sure he was strong at defense in high school where the competition was weaker and his size/athleticism combo was further advanced than most kids his age. But he hasn't been a plus defender for us.

The funny thing is, in preseason, many of us were convinced RJ would be the best Duke defender due to his energy and tenacity. Goes to show that defense is a very, very difficult thing to forecast.

(also, we were all wrong on Zion. I was convinced he was going to be the 4th best freshman on the team. Now I feel like an idiot...)

[kAzE]

The funny thing is, in preseason, many of us were convinced RJ would be the best Duke defender due to his energy and tenacity. Goes to show that defense is a very, very difficult thing to forecast.

(also, we were all wrong on Zion. I was convinced he was going to be the 4th best freshman on the team. Now I feel like an idiot...)

Wow, 4th best? Was that opinion formed before or after the Canada tour? Granted, Cam and Tre didn't play in those games, but I was pretty sold on Zion and RJ after those performances, without being sure who was the better player of the two, but after the Kentucky game, I was convinced Zion is the best college player in the country. I think it may have taken until after the Maui tournament for public opinion to come around.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Wow, 4th best? Was that opinion formed before or after the Canada tour? Granted, Cam and Tre didn't play in those games, but I was pretty sold on Zion and RJ after those performances. But after the Kentucky game, I was convinced Zion is the best college player in the country. I think it may have taken until after the Maui tournament for public opinion to come around.

Yup. 4th best until the Kentucky game.

I knew RJ was going to be a stud. I thought Cam would be 2nd fiddle because he had everything sans a high motor coming into college and Coach K would fix the motor. I bought into Tre Jones as the second coming of Tyus (with more athleticism and a worse shot. That turned out to be true!). And I thought Zion was this incredible dunker without much of a basketball game.

[kako]

Play small ball and run 'em. Run, run and run some more. Goodbye UCF.

Fall is really slow. So slow that there is a lot of doubt he can play in the NBA at 7’6”, 300 lbs.

FSU starts a 7-4 center. He barely played against Duke after the first few minutes. Hamilton said that Koumadje was just too slow to be effective against Duke.

Posters are certainly entitled to their opinions, and I respect that. But I'll say it again. Overconfidence is the biggest opponent for this team. I need only point to Wake Forest as an example.

Warning - Rant Ahead!

Fans tend to think ahead. The last thing this team needs is to start thinking like fans. This young team needs to focus on each and every opponent, taking each one seriously with the utmost attention. The smiling, flexing Zion is fun, but they could use more nasty MJ or Kobe in them... or in K's terms, that MFer like Laettner that will make sure this team won't lose. One thing that bugs me is how all of sportsyak is saying how screwed MSU is getting placed in Duke's region. It makes it seem like Duke's championship is a guarantee, so it's inevitable that Duke will get to the Elite 8. Duke is very good, and maybe borderline great. Two All-Americans on the same team. Zion is a monster, RJ is the alpha dog, Jones is a defensive wizard. McDonald's All-Americans, the Brotherhood. Blah blah blah... All of this means nothing if Duke gets overconfident in any game from now on. They have a huge target on their backs. No team will be looking past them. If these freshmen start to believe the hype and think it's their birthright to win the natty, they will get beat by a very good team like a MSU, and they may even get upset by a weaker team like a UCF. Again, I'm pointing right at Brown's shot as it goes up at the buzzer. If a truly awful team like Wake can be within a hair's breath of beating Duke (even without Zion), any decent team at least has a shot of doing the same (with Zion). To think otherwise is, again, overconfidence. It scares me to think that the players may be lurking and reading these comments. They are NOT what I would want anyone on the team reading. And if they are reading this, stop right now. Go watch more tape on your next opponent or get back on the court... maybe practice the high post screen, or better yet - free throws. Nothing is guaranteed!

9F

[proelitedota]

Good post kako.

One game at a time. I'm sweating our first round matchup as always.

[NSDukeFan]

Posters are certainly entitled to their opinions, and I respect that. But I'll say it again. Overconfidence is the biggest opponent for this team. I need only point to Wake Forest as an example.

Warning - Rant Ahead!

Fans tend to think ahead. The last thing this team needs is to start thinking like fans. This young team needs to focus on each and every opponent, taking each one seriously with the utmost attention. The smiling, flexing Zion is fun, but they could use more nasty MJ or Kobe in them... or in K's terms, that MFer like Laettner that will make sure this team won't lose. One thing that bugs me is how all of sportsyak is saying how screwed MSU is getting placed in Duke's region. It makes it seem like Duke's championship is a guarantee, so it's inevitable that Duke will get to the Elite 8. Duke is very good, and maybe borderline great. Two All-Americans on the same team. Zion is a monster, RJ is the alpha dog, Jones is a defensive wizard. McDonald's All-Americans, the Brotherhood. Blah blah blah... All of this means nothing if Duke gets overconfident in any game from now on. They have a huge target on their backs. No team will be looking past them. If these freshmen start to believe the hype and think it's their birthright to win the natty, they will get beat by a very good team like a MSU, and they may even get upset by a weaker team like a UCF. Again, I'm pointing right at Brown's shot as it goes up at the buzzer. If a truly awful team like Wake can be within a hair's breath of beating Duke (even without Zion), any decent team at least has a shot of doing the same (with Zion). To think otherwise is, again, overconfidence. It scares me to think that the players may be lurking and reading these comments. They are NOT what I would want anyone on the team reading. And if they are reading this, stop right now. Go watch more tape on your next opponent or get back on the court... maybe practice the high post screen, or better yet - free throws. Nothing is guaranteed!

9F

I’m not convinced that what posters post here directly affects how the players mentally approach the game. Obviously, that changes once the game begins and fans aren’t properly prepared and wearing the correct lucky jerseys, hats, sitting in the correct place with the proper food and refreshments and cheering with the proper intensity.

[jimsumner]

Posters are certainly entitled to their opinions, and I respect that. But I'll say it again. Overconfidence is the biggest opponent for this team. I need only point to Wake Forest as an example.

Warning - Rant Ahead!

Fans tend to think ahead. The last thing this team needs is to start thinking like fans. This young team needs to focus on each and every opponent, taking each one seriously with the utmost attention. The smiling, flexing Zion is fun, but they could use more nasty MJ or Kobe in them... or in K's terms, that MFer like Laettner that will make sure this team won't lose. One thing that bugs me is how all of sportsyak is saying how screwed MSU is getting placed in Duke's region. It makes it seem like Duke's championship is a guarantee, so it's inevitable that Duke will get to the Elite 8. Duke is very good, and maybe borderline great. Two All-Americans on the same team. Zion is a monster, RJ is the alpha dog, Jones is a defensive wizard. McDonald's All-Americans, the Brotherhood. Blah blah blah... All of this means nothing if Duke gets overconfident in any game from now on. They have a huge target on their backs. No team will be looking past them. If these freshmen start to believe the hype and think it's their birthright to win the natty, they will get beat by a very good team like a MSU, and they may even get upset by a weaker team like a UCF. Again, I'm pointing right at Brown's shot as it goes up at the buzzer. If a truly awful team like Wake can be within a hair's breath of beating Duke (even without Zion), any decent team at least has a shot of doing the same (with Zion). To think otherwise is, again, overconfidence. It scares me to think that the players may be lurking and reading these comments. They are NOT what I would want anyone on the team reading. And if they are reading this, stop right now. Go watch more tape on your next opponent or get back on the court... maybe practice the high post screen, or better yet - free throws. Nothing is guaranteed!

9F

Factually noting that Florida State elected to sit their 7-4 center against Duke constitutes fan overconfidence?

Curious.

Suggesting that fan overconfidence might somehow negatively impact the team?

Even more curious.

[proelitedota]

Factually noting that Florida State elected to sit their 7-4 center against Duke constitutes fan overconfidence?

Curious.

Suggesting that fan overconfidence might somehow negatively impact the team?

Even more curious.

The players are regulars on DBR. You don't want to pump them up too much.

[MarkD83]

So any word on Marques?

[MChambers]

The players are regulars on DBR. You don't want to pump them up too much.

Some of us are redshirting, but I guess we’ve still got to be ready.

[Reddevil]

Suggesting that fan overconfidence might somehow negatively impact the team?

Even more curious.

Yeah, and there are these people that teach, and help guide the team - coaches if you will, whose job it is to keep the team centered and focused. I understand Duke has a pretty good staff.

[UrinalCake]

Syracuse also has a pretty big dude, the guy who wears those James Worthy goggles, and he picked up four fouls in about three minutes of playing time against Zion. Brooks of UNC fouled out. As Mr. Sumner mentioned, Lurch from FSU was also ineffective. Being tall is nice, but it’s not the only factor in being a basketball player.

I actually think our best play against the Taco guy will be to go small. Regardless, play our game and let them have to adjust.

[kako]

Suggesting that fan overconfidence might somehow negatively impact the team?

Even more curious.

Do you think the players never read this board? Or the people in the players' inner circle that might have a player's ear? If they don't, then there is no impact.

To reiterate my main point - overconfidence is this team's biggest enemy. And my belief is that anything that potentially feeds that overconfidence can harm the team, whether it's sportsyak, sychophantic tweets, Zionmania, etc., and it needs to be ignored.

9F