NCAAT 1 Seed and 2 Seed Possibilities

[bullettoothtony]

I think you guys get the East with a win tomorrow. You may even get it with a loss. H2H has to matter.

I think UVA gets the South (if UK doesn't win SECT) or Midwest (if UK does win the SECT).

I'm actually starting to think we may get the #1 in the East regardless of tomorrow. Taking two from Virginia, not sure how you give it to them over us.

[bullettoothtony]

I’d go

East: Duke Michigan
South: Virginia Tenn
MidWest: Kentucky MichSt
West: UNC Gonzaga

I like that, I think that's what it should be. And I do think Carolina deserves the 1 over Gonzaga.

[duke2x]

I think you convinced me. I had been thinking Columbus less hostile than Columbia but the extra day of rest probably wins

Just to be inconsistent, I don't think Columbus was ever in the cards for Duke this year. If we had lost tonight (shudder), we would have been sent to Jacksonville. It's equidistant, but nobody wants it except FSU. Many teams want Columbus that are pretty high up on the S-curve: KY, MI, MSU with UVA and TN having a preference there to Des Moines.

[akg4y]

I think it will go to Duke. Beat UVA twice during the season and have similar resumes.

UVA's most impressive wins are
- UNC, VA Tech, Wisconsin

.

UVA also beat FSU by double digits (and were leading by around thirty before the walk ons) at FSU.

[proelitedota]

UVA lock for 1 seed
Duke lock for 1 seed
One of MSU / Michigan is lock for 1 seed if they win the Big10 tourney.
One of UK / UT is a lock for 1 seed if they win the SEC tourney.

UNC is the next in line for 1 seed. Gonzaga after. Cheats need to pray for at least one of the Big10 / SEC Tourney to not go the remaining favorites.

[arnie]

I think you convinced me. I had been thinking Columbus less hostile than Columbia but the extra day of rest probably wins

Maybe not this year? The Zion effect in Columbia SC maybe a positive; lots of locals would want Spartanburg Superman to do well.

[duke2x]

UVA also beat FSU by double digits (and were leading by around thirty before the walk ons) at FSU.

That game was actually @UVA. Duke was the only team that won @FSU this year, and we barely did it.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Maybe not this year? The Zion effect in Columbia SC maybe a positive; lots of locals would want Spartanburg Superman to do well.

Columbia, if the Holes are sent elsewhere, (and not playing a SC team) would be pretty good assign for Duke. Frank Martin and K are friends...easy travel for Duke fans. And yeah, the Zion effect for locals who buy tickets.

[jv001]

That game was actually @UVA. Duke was the only team that won @FSU this year, and we barely did it.

And Duke was the only ACC team to beat Virginia on their home court. Good resume for the good guys. GoDuke!

[sagegrouse]

I'm actually starting to think we may get the #1 in the East regardless of tomorrow. Taking two from Virginia, not sure how you give it to them over us.

Agree Let's look at the records among Duke, UNC and Virginia --

Duke 3-2
UNC 2-2
UVa 1-2

Other losses:
Duke -- Zags, Syracuse, VPI
UNC -- Texas, Michigan, Kentucky, Louisville
UVa -- [none]

[summerwind03]

Agree Let's look at the records among Duke, UNC and Virginia --

Duke 3-2
UNC 2-2
UVa 1-2

Other losses:
Duke -- Zags, Syracuse, VPI
UNC -- Texas, Michigan, Kentucky, Louisville
UVa -- [none]

UVa lost to FSU, right?

[budwom]

UVa lost to FSU, right?

how soon they forget!

[CDu]

Duke has just 1 loss with a full roster. And that was a 1-possession loss in November in the third game in 3 days, and against a top-5 team.

We have a pretty good resume.

Getting the win last night was crucial. It allows the committee to discount the 3 losses with Zion out. That alone would put us among the discussion for #1 overall. A win today should give the top spot to us.

[JasonEvans]

I think it is important to look at the stuff the committee is going to look at in the room.

	NET	Pom	BPI
Virginia	1	1	1
Gonzaga	2	2	2
Duke	3	3	3
Kentucky	5	8	6
Tennessee	6	7	7
UNC	7	5	5
Michigan St.	8	3	4
Michigan	9	6	8

(note: the only other team in the top 8 in any of these metrics is Houston, who comes in at #4 in the NET, but I don't think they are really all that much of a contender for even a #2 seed)

So, even taking out the fact that Duke's number is deflated buy the six games where we did not have the best player in the country (arguably one of the best players in many, many years in college hoops), it is abundantly clear that there are three mortal locks for #1 seeds. Virginia, Gonzaga, and Duke check all the boxes. Now, when you discount the 6 non-Zion games; when you look at Duke's head-to-head with Virginia; when you factor in Duke advancing further than the Cavs in the ACC tourney; and when you look at Duke's schedule strength compared to UVA (UVA's non-conf was a joke while Duke played the best teams in the country) it becomes clear that Duke is a pretty logical choice for the overall #1 seed. I think the Committee chair would not get any skeptical questions about that but I think he would get some questions about why he put Virginia ahead of Duke if they go that direction. I think the seed order is going to be Duke, then UVA, then Gonzaga (anyone who says Gonzaga is not a lock for a #1 is smoking something)... of course, it is after those three where things become muddled.

Allow me to posit this -- if Duke's non-Zion games are discounted, should we not also somewhat discount Carolina's wins over a lessened Duke team? Carolina's metrics and resume look a tad less impressive if we think the non-Zion Duke is merely a top-15 kinda club versus being one of the top 3 in the nation. Considering the selection committee may be reluctant to give any conference 3 #1 seeds, I think the odds are stacked against UNC getting that fourth #1 seed. It isn't impossible and the Heels should be given credit for playing the single toughest schedule in the nation (and winning a ton against it) but I think the committee would like to find someone else to make the fourth #1.

While there is some buzz about Michigan and MSU, they are pretty low in the NET and I suspect the committee will want to give some weight to their home-grown baby in its first year of existence and the NET likes the SEC teams more than the Big Ten clubs. So, I think the winner of today's Kentucky/Tennessee game will get the fourth #1 seed.

I should add one more thing -- I doubt the final result of the SEC tourney tomorrow will make a difference in all this. If the KY/TN winner falls to the Fla/Aub winner in the SEC finals on Sunday, I don't think it will change the seeding very much at all. There are simply too many changes that must be made to accommodate conference matchups to make it practical to be flipping seeds at the last minute. With the ACC likely getting 8 teams in the dance and the SEC getting 7, moving Carolina and KY/TN around is just too problematic. Similarly, the Big Ten is a nightmare with a championship game that ends at 530pm on Sunday. The committee will largely decide on the seeds of these teams before Sunday afternoon... and I think the 4th #1 will be whoever wins today's KY/TN match.

Here is how I see the #1 and #2 seeds going:

East - Duke, Mich/MSU loser
South - Virginia, KY/TN loser
MW - KY/TN winner, UNC
West - Gonz, Mich/MSU winner

-Jason "it is possible the MW and W #2s flip... the committee may flip a coin to decide where to send UNC and the Mich/MSU winner" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Side note:

I know the consensus is that Clemson is not making the dance. I am less sure and think it may depend on how much the NCAA wants to rely on the shiny new toy, the NET.

Here are the NET rankings of everyone in the ACC:
Virginia 1, Duke 3, UNC 7, Va Tech 11, FSU 15, Louisville 21, NCSU 34, Clemson 35, Syracuse 43, Miami 93, ND 112, Pitt 121, GaT 124, BC 137, Wake 183

If the NCAA loves the NET, Clemson at #35 is going to be awful hard to keep out (and what about #38 Texas, who are just 16-16... could a .500 team make the dance?)

We may get a hint about Clemson's fate when Houston's seed is announced. The Cougars are somehow #4 in the NET and while I do not expect to find them on the #1 seed line, if they land a #2 it may be a sign that the selection committee is hot for the NET and that would be good for Clemson.

[budwom]

Bilas absolutely insistent that unc is a one seed, no doubt in his mind, period. We'll see.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Bilas absolutely insistent that unc is a one seed, no doubt in his mind, period. We'll see.

That means they'll be a 2.

[devildeac]

Bilas absolutely insistent that unc is a one seed, no doubt in his mind, period. We'll see.

"Often wrong, never in doubt"

[jimsumner]

How often is the NET updated?

[Dukehk]

Duke has just 1 loss with a full roster. And that was a 1-possession loss in November in the third game in 3 days, and against a top-5 team.

We have a pretty good resume.

Getting the win last night was crucial. It allows the committee to discount the 3 losses with Zion out. That alone would put us among the discussion for #1 overall. A win today should give the top spot to us.

I hope the committee sees it that way too. I consider us to have lost maybe 1.5 games this year. It’s incredible the amount of injuries we have had.

I believe there was a statistic that said half our games played in the ACC was without a full starting 5.

Just praying that we win tomorrow and get that overall 1 seed. Then bolden comes back to help us in the second weekend assuming we handle our business. Us duke fans have gone through an absolute rollercoaster of emotions this year. We deserve the storybook ending! I would love to see us with a full deck by the time the big dance comes along.