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  1. #61
    One thing that we're not really considering is that I think it's very possible Louisville beats UNC (they beat them in the Dean Dome this year) and Duke vs. UNC round 3 does not happen. Ironically, would that potentially hurt us from a seeding perspective (if we make the finals but lost to UVa)? I guess depends on how good we look (or don't) in the semis regardless of opponent. Either way, I'll be cheering fervently for the 'Ville and Duke to advance.

  2. #62
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Toronto
    Quote Originally Posted by Bluedog View Post
    One thing that we're not really considering is that I think it's very possible Louisville beats UNC (they beat them in the Dean Dome this year) and Duke vs. UNC round 3 does not happen. Ironically, would that potentially hurt us from a seeding perspective (if we make the finals but lost to UVa)? I guess depends on how good we look (or don't) in the semis regardless of opponent. Either way, I'll be cheering fervently for the 'Ville and Duke to advance.
    That’s a good question. If that were to happen, I think a Duke team that makes the final would be above UNC, considering A) that would give us two more Q1 wins and B) it would mean we’ve looked good with Zion in at least two games.

    The other thing to keep in mind is that the committee has been notoriously inconsistent when it comes to how heavily it factors in head to head matchups. In 2017 we beat UNC 2 out of 3 and were the hottest team in the country after winning the ACC Tourney, but UNC was seeded ahead of us based on a better overall season resume. Last season Michigan was 2-0 against MSU and won the B1G tourney, but was seeded below MSU, again largely because of overall resume. If that pattern stays consistent, in the scenario described here history would be on our side... but the committee is fickle.
       

  3. #63
    Quote Originally Posted by Bluedog View Post
    One thing that we're not really considering is that I think it's very possible Louisville beats UNC (they beat them in the Dean Dome this year) and Duke vs. UNC round 3 does not happen. Ironically, would that potentially hurt us from a seeding perspective (if we make the finals but lost to UVa)? I guess depends on how good we look (or don't) in the semis regardless of opponent. Either way, I'll be cheering fervently for the 'Ville and Duke to advance.
    That helps Duke. Any loss by a team ahead of them helps Duke get to a 1 seed. Kentucky losing and/or UNC losing gives Duke a great shot at earning a 1 seed.

  4. #64
    Quote Originally Posted by Bluedog View Post
    One thing that we're not really considering is that I think it's very possible Louisville beats UNC (they beat them in the Dean Dome this year) and Duke vs. UNC round 3 does not happen. Ironically, would that potentially hurt us from a seeding perspective (if we make the finals but lost to UVa)? I guess depends on how good we look (or don't) in the semis regardless of opponent. Either way, I'll be cheering fervently for the 'Ville and Duke to advance.
    And Duke has to get by Syracuse! Hopefully Tre can limit Battle again.
       

  5. #65
    Does anyone think it is possible to push Virginia out of the East if Duke beats them a third time this week? I'm thinking yes...

    If we can't, does it really matter if we get a 1 or 2 seed. I feel like Virginia and Gonzaga are #1 no matter what happens this week. The other two spots are going to be filled by Duke or UNC and Kentucky. Either way we would be going to Louisville or Kansas City for the regionals with a matchup of the SEC (Kentucky if we are at #2 - Tenn. or LSU if we are a #1) or Big 10 (one of the Michigans). The only scenario I wouldn't want to see is being a #2 seed in the south with Kentucky the #1 seed.

    At this point we are probably going to be in South Carolina with the cheats the first and second round, not sure that is going to change with this weeks results.

  6. #66
    Quote Originally Posted by DBGoins View Post
    Does anyone think it is possible to push Virginia out of the East if Duke beats them a third time this week? I'm thinking yes...
    I think so. I don't even think we need to go through them as long as we win the ACCT because 3-0 against UVA isn't that much better than 2-0.

    If UVA loses early in the ACCT and Duke looks "back" while winning the ACCT, I would bet on Duke being in the East.

    I'm with DBA in his analysis. We don't need to beat specific teams to attain our seeding goals. We just need to win games, and the more dominant we look winning games with Zion, the better. In other words, we can root for UNC to lose early, for UVA to lose early.

  7. #67
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    NC Raised, DC Resident
    Quote Originally Posted by DBGoins View Post
    Does anyone think it is possible to push Virginia out of the East if Duke beats them a third time this week? I'm thinking yes...

    If we can't, does it really matter if we get a 1 or 2 seed. I feel like Virginia and Gonzaga are #1 no matter what happens this week. The other two spots are going to be filled by Duke or UNC and Kentucky. Either way we would be going to Louisville or Kansas City for the regionals with a matchup of the SEC (Kentucky if we are at #2 - Tenn. or LSU if we are a #1) or Big 10 (one of the Michigans). The only scenario I wouldn't want to see is being a #2 seed in the south with Kentucky the #1 seed.

    At this point we are probably going to be in South Carolina with the cheats the first and second round, not sure that is going to change with this weeks results.
    Unscientifically, I think if we win the ACCT (whether we beat UVa or not), we get the East. We were the No. 1 overall seed with a healthy Zion, and if the Committee sees we're back to that level of play with a healthy Zion back in the fold, I think they sufficiently discount the losses without him to return us to that peak.

    I do think it matters whether we're a 1-seed or a 2-seed. Besides that fact that 1-seeds generally get weaker competition, by design, the thought of being the 2 in the South with UK as the one is a pretty vile possibility, IMO. Of course, we have no idea whether UK will win the SECT and we could end up the 1 in the South and them the 2, but I see the odds of UK not being a 1-seed and ending up in the South as quite low. That would assume that they lose to either Tenn, LSU, or some lower-tier SEC team...and then still end up in the region they want over Tenn and LSU. Possible, yes, if Tenn somehow snatched a 1-seed and it ended up being the MW, but again, I don't see the odds of that.

    ETA: It seems TM is quicker on the draw than I am.
    Haters gonna hate.

  8. #68
    If it works out this way, it would be very odd to see Duke as the Vegas favorite from the 2 line.

  9. #69
    Quote Originally Posted by DarkstarWahoo View Post
    If it works out this way, it would be very odd to see Duke as the Vegas favorite from the 2 line.
    Not sure where Vegas had it, but I'm pretty sure Villanova 2016 was at least one of the favorites.
       

  10. #70
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh
    Quote Originally Posted by robed deity View Post
    Not sure where Vegas had it, but I'm pretty sure Villanova 2016 was at least one of the favorites.
    Kris Jenkins is still one of my favorite non-Duke players.
    [redacted] them and the horses they rode in on.

  11. #71
    Quote Originally Posted by devildeac View Post
    Kris Jenkins is still one of my favorite non-Duke players.
    The most excited I ever got for a non-Duke game.
       

  12. #72
    Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
    That’s a good question. If that were to happen, I think a Duke team that makes the final would be above UNC, considering A) that would give us two more Q1 wins and B) it would mean we’ve looked good with Zion in at least two games.

    The other thing to keep in mind is that the committee has been notoriously inconsistent when it comes to how heavily it factors in head to head matchups. In 2017 we beat UNC 2 out of 3 and were the hottest team in the country after winning the ACC Tourney, but UNC was seeded ahead of us based on a better overall season resume. Last season Michigan was 2-0 against MSU and won the B1G tourney, but was seeded below MSU, again largely because of overall resume. If that pattern stays consistent, in the scenario described here history would be on our side... but the committee is fickle.
    This is a really good point. I'll also add that UNC was slotted above Duke last year because of the head-to-head despite Duke's better overall resume. Yet as you note, MSU was seeded above Michigan because of overall resume that same year. So the committee has been inconsistent both across years and within years.

  13. #73
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Cary, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by ns7 View Post
    This is a really good point. I'll also add that UNC was slotted above Duke last year because of the head-to-head despite Duke's better overall resume.
    Basically the committee will bend over backwards to give the CHeats the best possible seed. Part of the NCAA’s apology for all the heartache they caused while unfairly investigating them for decades of cheating.
       

  14. #74
    Why is everyone worried about facing UK in Louisville? They have no shot against us regardless of if the crowd is 100% for UK or not with the way matchups play out.

    Their most consistent scorer lately is Tyler Herro and Reddish would be able to shut him down with his length and wingspan. Zion would limit PJ Washington while PJ wouldn't have a prayer at stopping a healthy Zion.

    Jones > Hagans
    Reddish > Herro
    Barrett > Johnson
    Zion > PJ

    Who knows what we can expect from Reid Travis or Bolden two weekends from now if that matchup were to materialize but I don't see either of them swinging the game for either team.

    I'm not really worried about any teams besides UVA and the Zags and we'd only play then in Final 4.

    We've got bigger fish to fry than worry about a team we beat by 34 to start the year.

  15. #75
    Quote Originally Posted by DukeTrinity11 View Post
    Why is everyone worried about facing UK in Louisville? They have no shot against us regardless of if the crowd is 100% for UK or not with the way matchups play out.

    Their most consistent scorer lately is Tyler Herro and Reddish would be able to shut him down with his length and wingspan. Zion would limit PJ Washington while PJ wouldn't have a prayer at stopping a healthy Zion.

    Jones > Hagans
    Reddish > Herro
    Barrett > Johnson
    Zion > PJ

    Who knows what we can expect from Reid Travis or Bolden two weekends from now if that matchup were to materialize but I don't see either of them swinging the game for either team.

    I'm not really worried about any teams besides UVA and the Zags and we'd only play then in Final 4.

    We've got bigger fish to fry than worry about a team we beat by 34 to start the year.
    Some of us are old enough to remember how an obviously better 1998 Duke team blew an 18 point lead in a regional final road game against Kentucky.

  16. #76
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Location
    Winston-Salem
    Quote Originally Posted by Nugget View Post
    Some of us are old enough to remember how an obviously better 1998 Duke team blew an 18 point lead in a regional final road game against Kentucky.
    Too soon. Way, way, way too soon.
    "Amazing what a minute can do."

  17. #77
    Duke is a lock to be the #1 Overall Seed in the East if we win the ACCT. The Finals game vs UVA (if both teams make it that far) would be for the right to play in the East and in DC for the Regional games.

    If Duke loses to UVA in the Finals, then we're #1 in the South Region likely with the loser of UK and UT as our #2.

    If Duke loses to Syracuse in the Quarters, we'd likely be the #2 Seed in either the Midwest or the South depending on who does better in the conference tournaments between UK and UNC.

    If Duke loses to UNC on Friday, Duke would likely be the #2 Seed in the South matched up vs either UT or UK as our #1 since geographically we can't be in the same region as UNC, who would surely be a #1 Seed in that scenario.

    Basically, it seems likely that Duke, UNC, UK and UT will be matched up together as 1 or 2 Seeds in some form or another due to geography alignment with MSU/LSU/TTU ending up as either UVA or Gonzaga's #2.

  18. #78
    Quote Originally Posted by Nugget View Post
    Some of us are old enough to remember how an obviously better 1998 Duke team blew an 18 point lead in a regional final road game against Kentucky.
    Coach K foolishly stuck with Wojo to guard Wayne Turner instead of putting in William Avery who was a better matchup for him if I recall.

  19. #79
    Quote Originally Posted by DukeTrinity11 View Post
    Why is everyone worried about facing UK in Louisville? They have no shot against us regardless of if the crowd is 100% for UK or not with the way matchups play out.
    How'd you feel about playing South Carolina in Greenville in 2017? While I probably agree with you about the matchups favoring us, let's have Zion return and Duke look good in the ACCT before we pooh-pooh playing UK in Kentucky.

    In any case, I'm hoping Duke gets a 1-seed and the committee is smart enough to not allow a 2-seed to have homecourt advantage.

  20. #80
    Quote Originally Posted by DukeTrinity11 View Post
    Duke is a lock to be the #1 Overall Seed in the East if we win the ACCT. The Finals game vs UVA (if both teams make it that far) would be for the right to play in the East and in DC for the Regional games.

    If Duke loses to UVA in the Finals, then we're #1 in the South Region likely with the loser of UK and UT as our #2.

    If Duke loses to Syracuse in the Quarters, we'd likely be the #2 Seed in either the Midwest or the South depending on who does better in the conference tournaments between UK and UNC.

    If Duke loses to UNC on Friday, Duke would likely be the #2 Seed in the South matched up vs either UT or UK as our #1 since geographically we can't be in the same region as UNC, who would surely be a #1 Seed in that scenario.

    Basically, it seems likely that Duke, UNC, UK and UT will be matched up together as 1 or 2 Seeds in some form or another due to geography alignment with MSU/LSU/TTU ending up as either UVA or Gonzaga's #2.
    I think your scenarios are generally right with the possible exception that if we beat Syracuse and Carolina and then lose to U.Va. in the finals, and Kentucky would the 2 seed to our #1, they could well move us to the Midwest -- figuring, I believe correctly, that Duke would rather have to play Kentucky a little bit further away from home in K.C. than be matched up with them in Louisville.

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