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  1. #21
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    I have a feeling some of the people commenting haven't been following Bracket Matrix daily since early January like me :-) Your feel for this is off.

    http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

    Houston is probably a 3 seed as of right now, and they're probably closer to a 4 than a 2.

    When Zion comes back, Duke has more room for error for a 1 seed than what some of you guys are saying. Remember, we swept the overall #1 seed UVA, and we blew out one of the other contenders for a #1 seed, Kentucky. Those wins will count for a lot, and our losses (besides Gonzaga) have come at less than full strength. Just on a practical level, think of the poor #1 seed that has to deal with Duke as their 2 seed when Zion comes back; the committee will be loathe to put anyone in that position.

    As of today, Duke is probably the overall #2 (i.e. second-highest 1-seed) behind UVA, and if the committee knew with 100% certainty that Zion is back, I wouldn't be surprised if they still put us ahead of the team we swept if Selection Sunday were today.
    Generally the brackets Bracket Matrix use are "if selection was today" where most of us are projecting based on various scenarios, which explains most of the difference I think. Virtually no chance Houston is a 4 if they win out, and I maintain they have a decent shot at a 2 depending on how other things fall. That said, accepting the Houston discrepancy my predictions line up pretty well with what Bracket Matrix is showing so I feel pretty good about them.

  2. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    no no

    the top 1 and 5 overall seed can't be in the same region

    And 1 and 2 seeds in each region must be from different conferences
    *So it’s for sure the 1 and 2 seeds in each region have to be from different conf?
       

  3. #23
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by gofurman View Post
    *So it’s for sure the 1 and 2 seeds in each region have to be from different conf?

    Each of the first four teams selected from a conference shall be placed in different regions if they are seeded on the first four lines.
    https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball...-march-madness

    (warning: autoplay alert)


    To answer the other questions:

    2. The committee will then place the No. 2 seeds in each region in true seed list order. The committee may relax the principle of keeping teams as close to their area of natural interest for seeding teams on the No. 2 line to avoid, for example, the overall No. 5 seed being sent to the same region as the overall No. 1 seed. The committee will not compromise the principle of keeping teams from the same conference in separate regions.
    By "in true seed list order", they mean you go to the region you want first. The second sentence makes that clear, and all but makes it explicit that they'll try to protect the overall #1. Last year that principle may have been extended to protect the overall #2, but geography is the primary factor for the 2 seed.

    Further further:
    5. After the top four seed lines have been assigned, the committee will review the relative strengths of the regions by adding the “true seed” numbers in each region to determine if any severe numerical imbalance exists. Generally, no more than five points should separate the lowest and highest total.
    This will almost always involve twiddling the 3 and 4 seeds.
    Zion Williamson broke everything.

    "If you don't address the things you're not doing well when you're winning the winning will eventually stop."

    -David Cutcliffe

  4. #24
    Jerry Palm has Duke as a 2 and Kentucky as the 1 and Duke as the 7th overall team. In a related note Jerry Palm isnt good at his job.
       

  5. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by Natty_B View Post
    Jerry Palm has Duke as a 2 and Kentucky as the 1 and Duke as the 7th overall team. In a related note Jerry Palm isnt good at his job.
    I think Duke will be matched up with KY or Gonzaga in the region- most likely KY.
       

  6. #26
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by dukelifer View Post
    I think Duke will be matched up with KY or Gonzaga in the region- most likely KY.
    you guys all realize there are some important games next week which could cause huge swings in the bracket, right? And if Zion is back and we play well, the committee can pretty much ignore all our games without zion, right?
    Zion Williamson broke everything.

    "If you don't address the things you're not doing well when you're winning the winning will eventually stop."

    -David Cutcliffe

  7. #27
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    New Orleans, Louisiana
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    you guys all realize there are some important games next week which could cause huge swings in the bracket, right?
    They do, and I’m sure they’ll share their instant, soon-to-be-wrong opinion then, too.

  8. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    you guys all realize there are some important games next week which could cause huge swings in the bracket, right? And if Zion is back and we play well, the committee can pretty much ignore all our games without zion, right?
    I have watched enough guys come back to play after injury to know that often there is always period of adjustment and also a risk of another compensating injury. Duke will not be playing cupcakes for Zion to ease back into shape. At this point Duke is a 2. If Zion is Zion - then Duke is much better and the committee may give them the benefit of the doubt. A lot will be clearer on Thursday and more importantly Friday.
       

  9. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by dukelifer View Post
    I have watched enough guys come back to play after injury to know that often there is always period of adjustment and also a risk of another compensating injury. Duke will not be playing cupcakes for Zion to ease back into shape. At this point Duke is a 2. If Zion is Zion - then Duke is much better and the committee may give them the benefit of the doubt. A lot will be clearer on Thursday and more importantly Friday.
    Hate to agree but this is where I am. Even with a healthy Zion, there’s virtually no way he’ll be in “game” shape for potentially 3 games in 3 days.

    He hasn’t gone through contact yet in practice and lord knows how much contact he’ll absorb in the intense ACC tourney games. I think we’re a 2 and my only hope is we enter the tourney as healthy as possible and with a chip on our shoulder. Should we run thru the ACC tourney, I will happily eat crow.
       

  10. #30
    This is me thinking "out loud" on this forum about seeding for the NCAA Tournament.

    It seems fairly obvious that, if Duke gets to the ACC Tournament Finals, they will be a 1 seed. Winning the tournament will have implications for which region.

    Gonzaga is a lock for the West Region #1 Seed
    Virginia is a lock for a #1 Seed, most likely the East but could move to the South if Duke wins the ACC Tournament.

    After that, there are 4 teams with realistic hopes of a #1 seed. None of those 4 teams was the outright winner of their conference regular season. UNC has a "share" in so much as they have the same record as Virginia, but with a head-to-head loss AND having played a significantly softer conference schedule. But as it stands today, UNC is probably a #1 Seed and getting to the ACC Semis or farther locks them into a #1 Seed.

    So that leaves Duke, Kentucky, and Tennessee as the other suitors for a #1 Seed with Michigan State on the outside looking in.

    Tennessee just lost to a mediocre Auburn team on the road to finish 3rd in the SEC standings. The Volunteers have a great neutral court win against Gonzaga and a convincing home win against Kentucky. Other than that, they have 4 Quadrant 1 losses and their next best win was a neutral court affair against Louisville. There are no bad losses on the schedule, but they didn't really do anything to make waves with losses to Kentucky, LSU, Auburn, and Kansas. They are basically 2-4 in signature games this year. I don't see how they jump Duke, even with the loss to UNC yesterday.

    Kentucky has the caveat that they also played without a key starter down the stretch in big man Reid Travis. Like Duke, they are also 26-5 and finished outside of the top spot in their conference. And like Duke, they have a Quadrant 2 loss on their resume, to Seton Hall. Duke's Q2 loss was at home, but with the caveat that it was without 2 starters. Having gone to Syracuse and winning by 10, even without Zion, could be seen as "proving" the first loss was a fluke. Kentucky has the most Q1 victories, going 10-4 with the losses coming to Duke, a split of the regular season to Tennessee, at home to LSU, and on the road at Alabama.

    If the seeding was to end today AND the committee knew Zion was returning with 100% certainty, I think Duke gets the nod for the other #1 seed, in the Midwest Region. I guess that is another way of saying that Duke is probably the 4th #1 seed with Michigan State as the #2 Seed in the Midwest in my mock bracket. If Duke wins on Friday night, I move Duke up to the #1 Seed in the South and if they win on Saturday, they will be the #1 Seed in the East.

    If Duke loses on or before Friday, then things get interesting. UVA and UNC will have the #1 Seeds in the East and South, respectively. That leaves the Midwest and West Regions for Duke as a #2 Seed. MSU winning the B1G, or even getting to their tournament final, probably pushes Duke out West with Gonzaga. That would be the worst-case scenario for me. I'd rather be in the Midwest as a #2 Seed with Kentucky in the same bracket.

    We'll see how this shakes out, but I think the top line looks like this right now:

    East: UVA, Tennessee
    South: UNC, Kentucky
    Midwest: Duke, Michigan State
    West: Gonzaga, Texas Tech

  11. #31
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, DC
    Would the committee really select three ACC teams as #1 seeds, given that the fourth #1 is debatable? My second question is whether the committee would be influenced by the fact that at least two of our wins (Louisville, with Zion; Wake, without) were by razor-thin margins.
       

  12. #32
    Quote Originally Posted by mapei View Post
    Would the committee really select three ACC teams as #1 seeds, given that the fourth #1 is debatable? My second question is whether the committee would be influenced by the fact that at least two of our wins (Louisville, with Zion; Wake, without) were by razor-thin margins.
    I have never heard of the committee debating win margins against bad teams. If you look at the whole resume, every team has "bad wins." UNC went to overtime at home to Miami. You also have to take into account a close win against UCLA (!) and losses to Texas and at home by 20+ points to Louisville. Those all look just as bad or worse than what Duke has accomplished this year. At the start of the year, if you said that Duke was going to lose 2 ACC road games all year, this board would have been delighted. The team has accomplished a great deal against incredible challenges. I'd take Duke's resume against all but 2 other teams right now, and the resume has the chance to look better than any other team in the nation come next Sunday.

  13. #33
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, DC
    Good points on the "close wins." I don't watch the other teams so I lose track of their own shortcomings.
       

  14. #34
    Win versus UNC Friday should solidify a one seed no?
       

  15. #35

    USA Today has three 1s from the ACC


  16. #36
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Earth
    Quote Originally Posted by BlueDevil16 View Post
    Win versus UNC Friday should solidify a one seed no?
    I don't think we have to beat either UNC or UVA next week to get a 1 seed. Coach K knew he was getting a clean slate for the last 2 weeks if Zion comes back but also was putting his eggs in 1 basket. We need to establish the games without Zion and Tre were flukes due to injury, and I strongly believe they were.

    Win Friday = last #1 (MW) with a very small chance South.
    Win Saturday = #1 East, probably #1 overall.

    UVA is a #1 regardless of what happens. They are #1 East if they win Saturday or UNC wins the ACC Tournament. They are #1 S/MW if neither of those hold. S/MW will depend on the SEC Tournament.

    The ceiling/roof for UNC is #1 MW with a small chance at the South if the SEC Tournament goes haywire.

  17. #37
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by duke2x View Post
    I don't think we have to beat either UNC or UVA next week to get a 1 seed. Coach K knew he was getting a clean slate for the last 2 weeks if Zion comes back but also was putting his eggs in 1 basket. We need to establish the games without Zion and Tre were flukes due to injury, and I strongly believe they were.

    Win Friday = last #1 (MW) with a very small chance South.
    Win Saturday = #1 East, probably #1 overall.

    UVA is a #1 regardless of what happens. They are #1 East if they win Saturday or UNC wins the ACC Tournament. They are #1 S/MW if neither of those hold. S/MW will depend on the SEC Tournament.

    The ceiling/roof for UNC is #1 MW with a small chance at the South if the SEC Tournament goes haywire.
    I think when people say we need to beat UNC or UVA they're just assuming that chalk holds in the other brackets and are really making a comment about how far we need to go in the tournament to get a 1 seed.

    I agree with your assessment, with the caveat that winning on Friday (but losing on Saturday) probably gets us a #1 as long as Zion looks like his his old self. If he isn't playing up to his previous form, it makes it harder for the committee to overlook what happened in his absence and we may end up as a high 2-seed as a result. This depends heavily on what happens in the SEC and Big 10 tournaments (I feel like one of those conferences will get the last 1 seed over a third ACC team unless all three ACC teams leave no doubt). Win Saturday and we're a #1 no matter what happens, who plays, etc (IMO).

    I think there are still 9 teams with at least an outside shot at a #1 seed, much will depend on how things shake out in the conference tournaments. Of those 9, one will obviously end up a 3 seed (I would guess either Michigan or Mich. State).
    Last edited by Acymetric; 03-10-2019 at 01:17 PM.

  18. #38
    I could be tempted to put my life savings on the probability of Duke and Kentucky being placed in the same regional. That is not a statement regarding the science of seeding or ranking.

  19. #39
    Bracket Matrix update as of Sunday, March 10th has the following:

    1 Seeds: Virginia, Gonzaga, North Carolina, Duke
    2 Seeds: Kentucky, Tennessee, Michigan State, Michigan

    Duke is in a tenuous position. A loss before reaching the ACC Tournament Finals would make a 2 seed a real possibility.

    Even with a loss on Thursday or Friday night in the ACC Tournament, I don't think Michigan State or Michigan have the resume to jump Duke. What's MSU's signature win? Out of conference, it is Florida or Texas. Those are the only Q1 or 2 non-conference games they won this year. They also have a couple of bad losses, including to Illinois. The resume isn't strong enough, even with a B1G Tournament Title. In conference, they had that 3-game losing streak and those two losses to Indiana.

    One of Kentucky or Tennessee could jump Duke. Of course, those two teams will most likely face each other in the SEC Tournament semis on Saturday afternoon. And then they have to win the SEC Tournament against LSU or some other team. I think Kentucky or Tennessee have to win their tournament to move up to a 1 Seed. If Both Kentucky and Duke stop short of their conference tournament title while losing to another top team, they have pretty similar resumes. And Duke has that head-to-head matchup win from November. I think the committee would give the nod to Duke if neither are conference tourney winners.

    Tennessee is a little harder to figure out. The Volunteers do have that neutral-court win against Gonzaga. Other signature wins include the home game against Kentucky and that's really about it. They beat Louisville and Memphis out of conference, the latter of which is not even a tournament team. In their favor, they have no bad losses. But all of Duke's losses, with the exception of the one to Gonzaga, were with one or more starters injured. And Duke has those wins against Kentucky, two against Virginia, and Texas Tech. There are more quality wins and no real bad losses. If you go by strength of schedule, Duke is #2 in Division I-only and #6 in DI non-conference while Tennessee is #65 and #118, respectively. Short of winning the SEC Tournament, I don't think Tennessee would jump Duke, either.

    So Duke gets a 1 Seed with an ACC Tournament Finals appearance OR if both of Kentucky and Tennessee fail to win the SEC Tournament. That's my position and I'm sticking to it!

  20. #40
    Join Date
    Jan 2017
    Location
    Kansas City
    Quote Originally Posted by 75Crazie View Post
    I could be tempted to put my life savings on the probability of Duke and Kentucky being placed in the same regional. That is not a statement regarding the science of seeding or ranking.
    I'm hopeful that this doesn't happen in Louisville. Actually, I'd prefer that Duke not plan in the South, with or without Kentucky in the same region. We'll welcome them in KC.

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