Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
I have a feeling some of the people commenting haven't been following Bracket Matrix daily since early January like me :-) Your feel for this is off.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Houston is probably a 3 seed as of right now, and they're probably closer to a 4 than a 2.

When Zion comes back, Duke has more room for error for a 1 seed than what some of you guys are saying. Remember, we swept the overall #1 seed UVA, and we blew out one of the other contenders for a #1 seed, Kentucky. Those wins will count for a lot, and our losses (besides Gonzaga) have come at less than full strength. Just on a practical level, think of the poor #1 seed that has to deal with Duke as their 2 seed when Zion comes back; the committee will be loathe to put anyone in that position.

As of today, Duke is probably the overall #2 (i.e. second-highest 1-seed) behind UVA, and if the committee knew with 100% certainty that Zion is back, I wouldn't be surprised if they still put us ahead of the team we swept if Selection Sunday were today.
Generally the brackets Bracket Matrix use are "if selection was today" where most of us are projecting based on various scenarios, which explains most of the difference I think. Virtually no chance Houston is a 4 if they win out, and I maintain they have a decent shot at a 2 depending on how other things fall. That said, accepting the Houston discrepancy my predictions line up pretty well with what Bracket Matrix is showing so I feel pretty good about them.