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  1. #1

    NCAAT 1 Seed and 2 Seed Possibilities

    UVA seems like a lock but the NCAA Committee might have a real mess on their hands here if dominoes fell a certain way.

    Is Gonzaga still a lock to get a 1 Seed if the following happened?

    1. Loser of Duke/UNC Saturday wins in the rematch in the ACC Semis
    2. UK/Tennessee wins their last regular season game and wins the SECT

    Given that UVA is a lock for a 1 Seed, how do you justify putting the Zags above the other 2 ACC or SEC teams in this case?

    Would a 3 loss Tennessee team that won the regular season SEC crown, beat the Zags H2H and won the SECT not get a 1 Seed?

    Would a Carolina team that swept Duke and beat Gonzaga H2H not get a 1 Seed?

    Would a UK team that beat Carolina H2H, beat Tennessee x2, has the most Quad 1 Wins and won the SECT not get a 1 Seed?

    Would a Duke team that swept UVA, beat Big 12 Champ Texas Tech on a neural court, crushed top 5 UK and beat UNC once with the Zion and missing key players argument not get a 1 Seed?

    The fanbases of one of the top 6 teams is going to be really unhappy come Selection Sunday. Hopefully it isn't us...

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by DukeTrinity11 View Post
    UVA seems like a lock but the NCAA Committee might have a real mess on their hands here if dominoes fell a certain way.

    Is Gonzaga still a lock to get a 1 Seed if the following happened?

    1. Loser of Duke/UNC Saturday wins in the rematch in the ACC Semis
    2. UK/Tennessee wins their last regular season game and wins the SECT

    Given that UVA is a lock for a 1 Seed, how do you justify putting the Zags above the other 2 ACC or SEC teams in this case?

    Would a 3 loss Tennessee team that won the regular season SEC crown, beat the Zags H2H and won the SECT not get a 1 Seed?

    Would a Carolina team that swept Duke and beat Gonzaga H2H not get a 1 Seed?

    Would a UK team that beat Carolina H2H, beat Tennessee x2, has the most Quad 1 Wins and won the SECT not get a 1 Seed?

    Would a Duke team that swept UVA, beat Big 12 Champ Texas Tech on a neural court, crushed top 5 UK and beat UNC once with the Zion and missing key players argument not get a 1 Seed?

    The fanbases of one of the top 6 teams is going to be really unhappy come Selection Sunday. Hopefully it isn't us...
    I put big money on the ACC not getting 3 #1 seeds. UNC is a stretch already at #7 in NET. If they swept duke, they'd have an argument. If they sweep duke, though, then Duke has no chance of getting a 1.

    It's either US or UNC.


    "If you don't address the things you're not doing well when you're winning the winning will eventually stop."

    -David Cutcliffe

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    I put big money on the ACC not getting 3 #1 seeds. UNC is a stretch already at #7 in NET. If they swept duke, they'd have an argument. If they sweep duke, though, then Duke has no chance of getting a 1.

    It's either US or UNC.
    Maybe we get a #1 seed if we lose to the cheats Saturday without Zion but beat the crap out of them in the ACCT with Z. Plus win the Tournament. GoDuke!

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by DukeTrinity11 View Post
    UVA seems like a lock but the NCAA Committee might have a real mess on their hands here if dominoes fell a certain way.

    Is Gonzaga still a lock to get a 1 Seed if the following happened?

    1. Loser of Duke/UNC Saturday wins in the rematch in the ACC Semis
    2. UK/Tennessee wins their last regular season game and wins the SECT

    Given that UVA is a lock for a 1 Seed, how do you justify putting the Zags above the other 2 ACC or SEC teams in this case?

    Would a 3 loss Tennessee team that won the regular season SEC crown, beat the Zags H2H and won the SECT not get a 1 Seed?

    Would a Carolina team that swept Duke and beat Gonzaga H2H not get a 1 Seed?

    Would a UK team that beat Carolina H2H, beat Tennessee x2, has the most Quad 1 Wins and won the SECT not get a 1 Seed?

    Would a Duke team that swept UVA, beat Big 12 Champ Texas Tech on a neural court, crushed top 5 UK and beat UNC once with the Zion and missing key players argument not get a 1 Seed?

    The fanbases of one of the top 6 teams is going to be really unhappy come Selection Sunday. Hopefully it isn't us...
    This cluster[redacted] at the top is why I suggested that we may not be able to secure a #1 if we don't win out the regular season (which now just means beat Carolina) or win the ACC Tourney. Houston losing to UCF helps a lot, I think they could have been seriously in play for a #1 seed had they won out and finished as conference champion with only 1 loss (I know some people will think this is crazy, but their NET ranking was plenty high).

    Missing from your analysis: I think Michigan or Michigan St. could lay claim to a #1 seed if they win out (including the conference tournament).

    Essentially, there are 7 teams that all have a case for a #1 seed assuming no big upsets in the next 2 weeks (would have been 8 with Houston). My expectation for #1 seeds:

    Gonzaga (assuming they win out)
    SEC Champ (assuming it is Kentucky or Tennessee)
    ACC Champ (Assuming UVA, Duke, or unc)
    *Wildcard*

    The wild card #1 seed will see competition from:
    Big 10 winner (assuming Michigan or Michigan St)
    2 of Duke/unc/UVA (whichever ones don't win the tournament)
    UK/Tennessee (whichever doesn't win the tournament)

    If someone other than one of the 5 #1 seed contenders wins the SEC or ACC tournament, replace that slot with the Big 10 winner (same if Gonzaga falters). If the Big 10 winner is also not in contention, the slot becomes another wildcard. If both the SEC and ACC are won by non-contenders (for the 1 seed) and the Big 10 sees a non-contender win...draw names out of a hat.

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    I put big money on the ACC not getting 3 #1 seeds. UNC is a stretch already at #7 in NET. If they swept duke, they'd have an argument. If they sweep duke, though, then Duke has no chance of getting a 1.

    It's either US or UNC.
    At this stage, I can only see two scenarios - NET rankings notwithstanding - in which we get a #1 seed.
    1. Win or lose this Saturday, we win the ACCT outright (likely beating UNC and UVA).
    2. Beat UNC this Saturday and in the ACCT but not win the conference title.

    The worst case scenario seed-wise seems to be the most likely, that we are the highest rated #2. I believe that may pit us in the same region as the worst #1, which may be end up being...UNC.

    UVA & Gonzaga are locks for 1 seeds. If UK or Tennessee win the SEC conference tournament, then they would be a lock too. If neither win the SEC, I would say Tennessee still gets a #1. Even if Michigan or MSU win the Big10, I can't see either being a #1.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by simplyluvin View Post
    The worst case scenario seed-wise seems to be the most likely, that we are the highest rated #2. I believe that may pit us in the same region as the worst #1, which may be end up being...UNC.

    UVA & Gonzaga are locks for 1 seeds. If UK or Tennessee win the SEC conference tournament, then they would be a lock too. If neither win the SEC, I would say Tennessee still gets a #1. Even if Michigan or MSU win the Big10, I can't see either being a #1.
    They can't put us in UNC's bracket by rule. The highest ACC #2 gets matched up with KY/TN or Gonzaga. I would not put it past the NCAA to make Gonzaga the #4 overall seed because of their schedule. I'm not wild about playing in Anaheim because it's Tampa West for Duke.

  7. #7
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    Meant to include this in my first post. I do think the top 8 seeds are pretty clear (not in order)

    These six are almost certain to get at least a #2 seed no matter what happens:
    Gonzaga
    Duke
    Virginia
    unc
    Tennessee
    Kentucky

    Then pick 2 of
    Houston (I can't imagine them falling all the way to 3, so its really probably pick 1 of the remaining teams below)
    Michigan
    Michigan St.
    LSU (probably needs to win SEC, which would also make them a lock for a 2 at that point and actually could put them in 1 seed contention)
    Purdue (Would definitely need to win the Big 10 and would probably also become a lock after doing so as long as LSU doesn't win the SEC)

    In the somewhat unlikely but plausible event that LSU and Purdue win their conferences and Houston does the same, I have no idea who gets bumped down to a 3, but probably Purdue.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    I put big money on the ACC not getting 3 #1 seeds. UNC is a stretch already at #7 in NET. If they swept duke, they'd have an argument. If they sweep duke, though, then Duke has no chance of getting a 1.

    It's either US or UNC.
    NET rankings asid, Carolina's resume is incredibly strong with 8 Quad 1 wins, an undefeated road record in the ACC and the potential to add 2 more Quad 1 wins if they beat Duke another time and Syracuse/Louisville as well.

    Plus lets say Duke wins this Saturday but then UNC beats Duke in the rematch in the ACC Semis and UVA in the ACC Final, that blows up your assertion and the NCAA committee has to give UNC a 1 Seed.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by duke2x View Post
    They can't put us in UNC's bracket by rule. The highest ACC #2 gets matched up with KY/TN or Gonzaga. I would not put it past the NCAA to make Gonzaga the #4 overall seed because of their schedule. I'm not wild about playing in Anaheim because it's Tampa West for Duke.
    There's a reasonable and terrifying possibility that Duke and Kentucky will both be placed in the South regional in Louisville, Kentucky. Could happen with either as the #1 or #2 seed.

  10. #10
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    bracketing doesn't happen by S-curve

    the top #2 seed goes in their preferred location, assuming other bracketing rules are not broken. For us, this would means washington, but UVA will almost assuredly be there. next up would be MO, but UNC could very well be there...unless TN is there instead Then we'd be in MN, with one of the michigans.

    So anyway, if we're a 2, we're probably MO or MN, depending on who the fourth 1 seed is and the overall seeding.


    "If you don't address the things you're not doing well when you're winning the winning will eventually stop."

    -David Cutcliffe

  11. #11
    I'm also interested in where Duke plays. I know some disagree but I really don't see a benefit to being in Columbia if UNC is also there. I've been to those Tourney games before and it's always like 99% UNC fans.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    the top #2 seed goes in their preferred location, assuming other bracketing rules are not broken. For us, this would means washington, but UVA will almost assuredly be there. next up would be MO, but UNC could very well be there...unless TN is there instead Then we'd be in MN, with one of the michigans.

    So anyway, if we're a 2, we're probably MO or MN, depending on who the fourth 1 seed is and the overall seeding.
    Bracketing did follow the S-curve last year. Duke and UNC were #5 and #6 and were shipped to the MW and W respectively to avoid #2 Villanova in the East. That was illegal if the rules were followed to the letter. A UNC-Duke-UVA rematch is the only rule they would observe pretty closely. Duke-KY in Louisville is fair game.

    https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball...ing-know-about
    Last edited by duke2x; 03-07-2019 at 03:03 PM.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Natty_B View Post
    I'm also interested in where Duke plays. I know some disagree but I really don't see a benefit to being in Columbia if UNC is also there. I've been to those Tourney games before and it's always like 99% UNC fans.
    I think UVA is a lock for Columbia even if they lose the next 2. I would ignore everything you see putting them in Columbus, which is much further away for them. One of Duke/UNC will be in Jacksonville, but I am confident Coach K would prefer Hartford in that case. (He won't get it.) Both are Th/Sat. Columbia is F/Sun, his preferred combination after the ACC Tournament.
    Last edited by duke2x; 03-07-2019 at 03:08 PM.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by duke2x View Post
    Bracketing did follow the S-curve last year. Duke and UNC were #5 and #6 and were shipped to the MW and W respectively to avoid #2 Villanova in the East. That was illegal if the rules were followed to the letter. A UNC-Duke-UVA rematch is the only rule they would observe pretty closely. Duke-KY in Louisville is fair game.

    https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball...ing-know-about
    just because it happened to work that way in one scenario does not mean anything. AFAIK, the only hard rule is the top 1 and 2 seeds cannot be in the same region, and they must be from different conferences. My provokation was the assertion that as the top 2 seed, duke would go with the fourth overall seed, which is simply not required to be the case.

    There are also rules about how far the sum of the overall top 4 seeds in a region may differ from each other. Considerations such as this may have prevented duke or UNC from ending up in the east as well, and protecting nova may have also been a consideration, but there's no requirement it work that way.


    "If you don't address the things you're not doing well when you're winning the winning will eventually stop."

    -David Cutcliffe

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    just because it happened to work that way in one scenario does not mean anything. AFAIK, the only hard rule is the top 1 and 2 seeds cannot be in the same region, and they must be from different conferences. My provokation was the assertion that as the top 2 seed, duke would go with the fourth overall seed, which is simply not required to be the case.

    There are also rules about how far the sum of the overall top 4 seeds in a region may differ from each other. Considerations such as this may have prevented duke or UNC from ending up in the east as well, and protecting nova may have also been a consideration, but there's no requirement it work that way.
    Wait, are you saying the top 1 seed and top 2 seed can't be from the same conference? Or am I mis-reading?

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Acymetric View Post
    Wait, are you saying the top 1 seed and top 2 seed can't be from the same conference? Or am I mis-reading?
    no no

    the top 1 and 5 overall seed can't be in the same region

    And 1 and 2 seeds in each region must be from different conferences


    "If you don't address the things you're not doing well when you're winning the winning will eventually stop."

    -David Cutcliffe

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    AFAIK, the only hard rule is the top 1 and 2 seeds cannot be in the same region, and they must be from different conferences. My provokation was the assertion that as the top 2 seed, duke would go with the fourth overall seed, which is simply not required to be the case.

    There are also rules about how far the sum of the overall top 4 seeds in a region may differ from each other. Considerations such as this may have prevented duke or UNC from ending up in the east as well, and protecting nova may have also been a consideration, but there's no requirement it work that way.
    AFAIK is correct after we were placed with Louisville in 2013. Balancing the bracket is easy if each Sweet 16 pair = 17, but even the balance rule is treated as optional because they don't fill out the bracket until 1-2 hours before. There will be some discussion on how to handle the top 6. I don't think they really want a Duke-UK rematch before the Final 4. Both teams are probably the favorites to reach the title game if healthy.

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by duke2x View Post
    AFAIK is correct after we were placed with Louisville in 2013. Balancing the bracket is easy if each Sweet 16 pair = 17, but even the balance rule is treated as optional because they don't fill out the bracket until 1-2 hours before. There will be some discussion on how to handle the top 6. I don't think they really want a Duke-UK rematch before the Final 4. Both teams are probably the favorites to reach the title game if healthy.
    The same team that just got blown out by tennessee last week is the favorite to reach the title game? That's not the only recent head scratcher, they've had several games that are far closer than they ought to have been

    4 points to #43 ole miss
    4 points to #53 arkansas
    the loss to LSU
    4 points to #22 Miss st

    They're good, but they're not title-game-prohibitive-favorite good.


    "If you don't address the things you're not doing well when you're winning the winning will eventually stop."

    -David Cutcliffe

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    no no

    the top 1 and 5 overall seed can't be in the same region

    And 1 and 2 seeds in each region must be from different conferences
    Ok, that's what I thought...just making sure. We need to get 3 #1 seeds and at least 2 #2 seeds some year to put that rule to the test!

    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    The same team that just got blown out by tennessee last week is the favorite to reach the title game? That's not the only recent head scratcher, they've had several games that are far closer than they ought to have been

    4 points to #43 ole miss
    4 points to #53 arkansas
    the loss to LSU
    4 points to #22 Miss st

    They're good, but they're not title-game-prohibitive-favorite good.
    Currently Duke and Gonzaga are heavy favorites...UK is a distant 4th.

    If you go by KenPom it looks like UVA and Gonzaga would be heavy favorites with Duke close behind and UK waaaaay back.

  20. #20
    I have a feeling some of the people commenting haven't been following Bracket Matrix daily since early January like me :-) Your feel for this is off.

    http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

    Houston is probably a 3 seed as of right now, and they're probably closer to a 4 than a 2.

    When Zion comes back, Duke has more room for error for a 1 seed than what some of you guys are saying. Remember, we swept the overall #1 seed UVA, and we blew out one of the other contenders for a #1 seed, Kentucky. Those wins will count for a lot, and our losses (besides Gonzaga) have come at less than full strength. Just on a practical level, think of the poor #1 seed that has to deal with Duke as their 2 seed when Zion comes back; the committee will be loathe to put anyone in that position.

    As of today, Duke is probably the overall #2 (i.e. second-highest 1-seed) behind UVA, and if the committee knew with 100% certainty that Zion is back, I wouldn't be surprised if they still put us ahead of the team we swept if Selection Sunday were today.

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