NCAAT 1 Seed and 2 Seed Possibilities

[UrinalCake]

I guess a question is how much value will the committee place on overall resume versus how much they look at recent results. We had some great wins early in the season - Kentucky, Auburn, Texas Tech - and had only the Gonzaga loss coming into the first Syracuse game. On paper, our overall resume still looks good. But if they were to value the last 10 games, which they randomly do some years and not others, then we look pretty average. Not having Zion will be a factor, but it won't completely erase the losses.

[Troublemaker]

I guess a question is how much value will the committee place on overall resume versus how much they look at recent results. We had some great wins early in the season - Kentucky, Auburn, Texas Tech - and had only the Gonzaga loss coming into the first Syracuse game. On paper, our overall resume still looks good. But if they were to value the last 10 games, which they randomly do some years and not others, then we look pretty average. Not having Zion will be a factor, but it won't completely erase the losses.

In recent years, they've done away with weighing recent results more, according to this article about whether that's advisable.

The Zion situation is so unique. He's the best and most recognizable player in college basketball. The committee is going to be hyper-aware that Duke has been playing without him.

It's a lot of pressure to have to perform well right away with him back, particularly the first two games. But if Duke happens to do just that, I have no doubt we'll be rewarded. The committee would get panned by the talking heads if they didn't give Duke a 1-seed if Zion's back playing well.

[wavedukefan70s]

Even with the seasons body of work.with zion coming back.i believe the Bolden injury may sway the committee a bit at this point.the reality being zion isnt back yet.(I'm sure he will be )if they were to make a decision today.no way we can get a one seed.we have to prove ourselves in the acc tourney. If by some freaky circumstances we go out early in the acc like our 1st game .I can see us being a high 3 (a stretch I know)but most likely a 1st or 2nd two seed.it will probably depend on the personal goals of some of the committee members.i believe that to have played roles in the decision making in the past.bottom line I believe the Bolden Injury has some wieght not as much as zions .

[flyingdutchdevil]

1) UVa is nearly guaranteed a 1-seed. If they win 1 game in the ACC tournament, they are a definite 1 seed. If they win the whole thing, they are the 1-overall seed.

2) Gonzaga, barring a major catastrophe, is a 1-seed. And thank goodness Gonzaga is on the West Coast!

3) I think there can only be 2 ACC 1-seed, even if 3 may be deserving. As a result, if Duke and UNC win their respective quarter finals game, the winner of that game gets a 1-seed

4) Kentucky is in the best position, right now, for that last 1-seed. The SEC, with UK, UT, and LSU, is a very strong, top-heavy conference. If UK wins the SEC tourney, they get it. If Tennessee wins, they may get it.

5) The other conference in position for a 1-seed is the Big 10. MSU or UM need to win out to surpass the SEC, and they only get a 1-seed if either UK or UT do not win out.

So, my prediction for 1-seeds? UVa, Gonzaga, either Duke/UNC, and UK (assuming they win out). If UK loses and UT wins, then UT. If both lose, MSU or UM. If all four of those teams lose, then UK for their body of work.

[fuse]

I’m of the opinion that this year, our seeding matters very little.
We are either going to advance the narrative of “Duke gets all the calls/breaks” if we end up a 1 seed. We will be the 2 seed no one wants in their bracket.

Yes, of course, seeding always matters.
For Duke, this season, what matters is if Zion can play at a high level again this season or not.

All the pundits predicting 3 ACC teams as one seeds are certifiable.
UVa will be a one, and either Duke or that other team down the road.

The only way there are 3 ACC one seeds is if there is major conference tourney carnage (Gonzaga, Kentucky, Tennessee lose early).

[Troublemaker]

I’m of the opinion that this year, our seeding matters very little.
We are either going to advance the narrative of “Duke gets all the calls/breaks” if we end up a 1 seed. We will be the 2 seed no one wants in their bracket.

Don't think that will be the narrative.

Duke has a terrific resume. If you just go to Bracket Matrix and go down the line, Duke has the following record:

#1s - Two wins over overall #1 seed UVA, home and away. A 2-1 record overall against 1-seeds when Zion plays.
#2s - A blowout win over the highest 2-seed UK on a neutral court. No losses.
#3s - A win over Texas Tech on a neutral court. No losses
#4s - A road win @FSU. No losses.

No team in the country can match this resume.

[DarkstarWahoo]

So who's the overall 1 if things get really weird in Charlotte? I'm thinking along the lines of (blecch) a VT-UNC final. Gonzaga?

I'm sorry I even raised the possibility.

[devildeac]

So who's the overall 1 if things get really weird in Charlotte? I'm thinking along the lines of (blecch) a VT-UNC final. Gonzaga?

I'm sorry I even raised the possibility.

I'll start a vigil with UVa fans for a meteor or three if that happens. Blecch.

[Hoosnwhat]

So who's the overall 1 if things get really weird in Charlotte? I'm thinking along the lines of (blecch) a VT-UNC final. Gonzaga?

I'm sorry I even raised the possibility.

Oh lord please no.

But yes, I think it'd be Gonzaga. Maybe Zags, UVA, UNC, and then would depend on the SEC (for the one seeds)?

[duke2x]

So who's the overall 1 if things get really weird in Charlotte? I'm thinking along the lines of (blecch) a VT-UNC final. Gonzaga? I'm sorry I even raised the possibility.

You could have said Clemson-GT final. Consider yourself anti-sporked.

I would break things down into tiers at this point. A rule of thumb is you lose a seed if you go 0-1 in your conference tournament. Against the top 6-7 this week, going 1-1 should do the same.

Tier 1: Gonzaga and UVA. #1 seed regardless, 1-2 against the top group but no OK or bad losses. The only question for UVA is geographic location not in the West.
Tier 2: Duke, UNC, KY, TN. #1-2 seed depending on what happens. Geographic placement will be S/MW except Duke getting the East if we win out. KY and UNC lead here as of today.
Overall #1: UVA, Gonzaga, or Duke (if we win out). KY is the longest of shots.

I don't think MSU or Houston belong on the top 2 tiers due to losses and schedule. MSU would sneak into the S/MW as a #2 with a strong Big 10 tournament.

[ElliottHoo]

3) I think there can only be 2 ACC 1-seed, even if 3 may be deserving. As a result, if Duke and UNC win their respective quarter finals game, the winner of that game gets a 1-seed

I think 3 #1s is still doable, but it'll take help. It would have been easier if you guys had beaten the Cheats the other night. Then get Zion back at full health and make it to the ACCT semis and I think you'd have been a lock for a 1. UNC's got a good resume, but not quite as good, but an ACCT win would have guaranteed them another #1, and I think UVA is a #1 as long as they don't lose their first game. I think that scenario would have given the ACC 3 #1s even with things going chalk in the SEC.

But you guys losing makes it a little trickier. You guys getting Zion back AND winning the ACCT feels like overkill to get you a #1, and I'm not sure UNC losing to you in the semis is enough to get them a #1 if UK or the Vols win in the SEC. On the other hand, you guys losing to UNC in the semis feels like it might leave you short. The resume value just doesn't even out quite as nicely.

I'm not a UNC fan (which sucks, because my dad went there for grad school. But that was a long time ago and he turned his back on them after the extent of the scandal was clear), but I'd love to see the ACC get 3 #1s. Its possible, but will probably require LSU or Auburn to win the SEC tournament, and a Wisconsin-Purdue B1G tournament finals wouldn't hurt.

[troach42]

Based on resume alone, I can honestly only see one scenario where Duke (with Zion playing) DOES NOT get a #1 seed this year - a loss in the first round of the ACCT against either Syracuse or Pitt/BC. Win that game and they are locked in to a 1 seed. And I wouldn't be surprised if the ACC did in fact get three number ones. Both KY and UT have floundered down the stretch, and Duke has a destruction of KY on their resume. Neither of the BiG schools from Michigan has a resume anywhere near Duke's. And all of the recent losses for Duke in conference are "acceptable", especially when you add in the fact that the best player in all of college basketball was hurt and unable to play.

Now, if Zion can't play in the ACCT (or if he is severely limited), and they lose to UNC or UL in round 2, I definitely see Duke getting a 2 seed, because of the uncertainty of Zion's ability to be effecting in the NCAAT. The Bolden injury, which IMO is a very significant one for Duke, likely won't have any affect on Duke's seeding.

[Nugget]

Based on resume alone, I can honestly only see one scenario where Duke (with Zion playing) DOES NOT get a #1 seed this year - a loss in the first round of the ACCT against either Syracuse or Pitt/BC. Win that game and they are locked in to a 1 seed. And I wouldn't be surprised if the ACC did in fact get three number ones. Both KY and UT have floundered down the stretch, and Duke has a destruction of KY on their resume. Neither of the BiG schools from Michigan has a resume anywhere near Duke's. And all of the recent losses for Duke in conference are "acceptable", especially when you add in the fact that the best player in all of college basketball was hurt and unable to play.

Now, if Zion can't play in the ACCT (or if he is severely limited), and they lose to UNC or UL in round 2, I definitely see Duke getting a 2 seed, because of the uncertainty of Zion's ability to be effecting in the NCAAT. The Bolden injury, which IMO is a very significant one for Duke, likely won't have any affect on Duke's seeding.

Kentucky definitely hasn't "floundered" down the stretch. They've gone 16-2 in their last 18 games, with the losses to LSU at the buzzer on what everyone concedes was a blown call, and a blowout at Tennessee in a revenge game.

As numerous others have noted in this thread, based on resumes as of today, Duke, UNC and Kentucky are essentially tied for the 3rd and 4th #1 seeds (I think all three are clearly ahead of Michigan St and Tenn based on current resumes).

All 3 of us are 26-5.

In Q1/Q2 games, we're 14-5, Kentucky is 15-5 and UNC is 16-5.

Head to Head we beat Kentucky, Kentucky beat UNC and UNC swept us (albeit both without Zion).

The other "good wins" are very comparable, with Duke possibly having a slight edge on Kentucky and both having an edge on UNC -- due to its favorable league schedule, has fewer high end road wins:
Duke-@ U.Va., U.Va, Texas Tech (neutral), @ Fla St, @ Louisville, Auburn (neutral), @ Syracuse
Kentucky-Tenn, Kansas, @ Louisville, @ Auburn, Auburn, @ Miss St., Miss St,. @ Florida, Florida, Ole Miss
UNC-Gonzaga, @ Louisville, Va Tech, Fla St., @ Wofford, @ NC St., Syracuse

Duke's "bad" losses are a little "better" than both UNC's and Kentucky's:
Duke-home to Syracuse (without Tre) and @ Va Tech (without Zion)
Kentucky-Seton Hall (neutral), @ Alabama
UNC-home to Louisville, Texas (neutral).

As of today, however, the wildcard would be Zion's absence -- we've not looked great without him, whereas UK has weathered the loss of Travis better.

Given how close the three teams are, I think the conference tournaments really will serve a tie-breaker role -- especially if we advance to the semis and play Carolina. If we were to lose that game (even with Zion playing and looking healthy), while Kentucky were to beat Tennessee, I'd imagine UK and UNC would get the #1s over us, irrespective of whether they went on to win the conference finals.

Personally, I'd sort of like to avoid being sent to the South and bracketed with Kentucky to play in Louisville -- in a game where it would make no difference if we were the 1 seed and them the 2 or the other way around.

[UrinalCake]

Based on resume alone, I can honestly only see one scenario where Duke (with Zion playing) DOES NOT get a #1 seed this year - a loss in the first round of the ACCT against either Syracuse or Pitt/BC.

Strongly disagree. If Zion comes back and we struggle to pull out a narrow win against Syracuse and then lose by double digits to the CHeats or Louisville, which is really not that far-fetched of a scenario, then I don’t see any way we would jump into a #1 seed. We are on the outside looking in right now, and the polls are still giving us the benefit of the doubt with respect to Zion coming back as good as he was previously. He needs to not only play but dominate, and the team needs to make the ACCT final at a minimum for the committee to believe we are the team we were three weeks ago who deserved a #1.

[scottdude8]

In lieu of my typical "NET News" post on the topic, you can see some of my NET based analysis in article form on the front page.

For the TL;DR crowd: under the assumption that we look better with Zion than we have without (which, barring some reintegration/chemistry issues will in all likelihood be the case), the NET and Team Sheets put us in fantastic shape if we make it to the ACC Tourney finals, and we'd still have a strong argument if we lose, but look strong, in the ACC semis.

[troach42]

Strongly disagree. If Zion comes back and we struggle to pull out a narrow win against Syracuse and then lose by double digits to the CHeats or Louisville, which is really not that far-fetched of a scenario, then I don’t see any way we would jump into a #1 seed. We are on the outside looking in right now, and the polls are still giving us the benefit of the doubt with respect to Zion coming back as good as he was previously. He needs to not only play but dominate, and the team needs to make the ACCT final at a minimum for the committee to believe we are the team we were three weeks ago who deserved a #1.

Do you honestly think that Duke, a team that just lost by 9 on the road to UNC without their best player, could lose by "double digits" a week later to that same UNC team, in a neutral site, with him?

All season, Duke has been the best team in the country, and this has not been a source for much debate. The only thing that has stopped Duke has been health, and every loss since December 1 has been directly linked to an injury to a critical player. If everyone is healthy, this is the best team with the best resume in the country. The committee knows this, and if Zion is able to demonstrate he is fully healthy this week, they will seed Duke accordingly.

[Troublemaker]

Do you honestly think that Duke, a team that just lost by 9 on the road to UNC without their best player, could lose by "double digits" a week later to that same UNC team, in a neutral site, with him?

All season, Duke has been the best team in the country, and this has not been a source for much debate. The only thing that has stopped Duke has been health, and every loss since December 1 has been directly linked to an injury to a critical player. If everyone is healthy, this is the best team with the best resume in the country. The committee knows this, and if Zion is able to demonstrate he is fully healthy this week, they will seed Duke accordingly.

I more or less agree with the rest of your post, and this is probably just a matter of semantics, but yes, it's possible. It's basketball. Golden St just lost at home to Phoenix last night.

Maybe Zion is hesitant upon his return, or maybe Duke just quite isn't clicking on all cylinders right away with him back. Maybe UNC shoots lights out, even on challenged shots.

[Nugget]

It's also worth nothing that, with the last of the pre-weekend mock brackets filtering out of the Bracket Matrix, the consensus it now reflects is:

1 seeds: 1 Virginia, 2 Gonzaga, 3 UNC, 4 Kentucky
2 seeds: 5 Duke, 6 Mich St, 7 Tenn, 8 Michigan

[Acymetric]

It's also worth nothing that, with the last of the pre-weekend mock brackets filtering out of the Bracket Matrix, the consensus it now reflects is:

1 seeds: 1 Virginia, 2 Gonzaga, 3 UNC, 4 Kentucky
2 seeds: 5 Duke, 6 Mich St, 7 Tenn, 8 Michigan

Yep. A few things I've been saying for a while now: There are 9 teams in contention for the top 8 seeds (Gonzaga, UVA, Kentucky, Duke, unc, Michigan, Michigan State, LSU, Tennessee). I think all 9 have potential paths to a 1 seed depending on who wins their tourney and who flames out early (although LSU needs help from several of the other teams).

A case could be made that 2 more teams (Purdue and Texas Tech) could eke out a 2 seed, but it would require that they win their respective tournaments and several of the teams ahead of them bomb out in the first game of their respective tourneys so I consider it highly unlikely.

If you're wondering how LSU could pull it off, they

1. win their tournament. I think this would vault them ahead of Tennessee and Kentucky (they would most likely have to beat one of them in the finals).
2. Need Michigan and Michigan State not to win the Big 10, and ideally for both to lose before the finals
3. Need one of Duke or unc to lose early, and for the other not to win the ACC

The path to 3 ACC #1 seeds:

1. unc and Duke advance to the semis
2. Duke beats unc
3. Duke goes on to win the tournament
4. None of the following teams win their conference (ideally don't make it to the finals): Tennessee, Kentucky, Michigan State
5. Maybe add Michigan to that list, I'm on the fence about them
6. LSU still might take the 4th #1 if they win their tournament over unc in the above scenario

The path for Duke to get a 1 seed:

1. Decent chance: Make it to the conference finals
2. Pretty good chance: Make it to the conference finals and Zion looks all the way back
3. Lock: Win the ACC Tournament

[DavidBenAkiva]

It's also worth nothing that, with the last of the pre-weekend mock brackets filtering out of the Bracket Matrix, the consensus it now reflects is:

1 seeds: 1 Virginia, 2 Gonzaga, 3 UNC, 4 Kentucky
2 seeds: 5 Duke, 6 Mich St, 7 Tenn, 8 Michigan

This seems pretty clear that reaching the ACC Tournament Finals will result in Duke earning a #1 Seed. None of the non-ACC Teams, with the exception of Tennessee, will have a chance to hang a loss on potential 1 seed during its conference tournament.

After throwing around some ideas yesterday, here's what I think:

Duke makes it to Saturday and it earns a 1 seed. An ACC Tournament Title determines which bracket (win = East, loss = South or more likely Midwest). A loss before the ACC Tournament Final would require a very fluky outcome in the other conference tournaments, like Maryland winning the B1G AND Florida winning the SEC, for Duke to get a 1 seed.

UNC has similar math - win on Friday = 1 seed. A loss to Duke would make UNC 3-3 against the group of Duke, Kentucky, Gonzaga, and Virginia with 4 (Duke in all 3 games and Gonzaga without Killian Tillie) of those games against a team that was not playing at its full compliment. Losing wouldn't be the end of their 1 seed chances, but it would make it very unlikely.

Kentucky and Tennessee have to win the SEC tournament to get a 1 seed. Duke and Kentucky have a resume that is too similar with Duke having the head-to-head matchup. Tennessee doesn't have as strong a resume having essentially not played a significant game for the better part of 2 months during the season. Losing to Kentucky, who then loses to LSU, would put Tennessee in serious jeopardy of a 3 seed, depending upon how far Michigan, Michigan State, LSU, and Texas Tech advance this week.

Of all the teams on the 2-seed line, Michigan has a very strong resume and has, I think, a chance at a 1 seed. Winning the B1G Tournament would mean advancing past Purdue in the semis and then possibly Michigan State (or maybe Wisconsin or Maryland). They would end the season with 5 losses, none particularly bad (maybe the Penn State loss) and a number of quality wins, like UNC. Charles Matthews didn't play for Michigan at the end of the season, so the loss at MSU might be discounted a bit (although MSU was without Nick Ward).

I don't see how Michigan State gets a 1 seed unless Kentucky and Tennessee both lose this week and UNC advances to the ACC Tournament Final. MSU has one more loss than Duke at this point. Duke has the superior strength of schedule, more signature wins, and fewer bad losses. The Spartans have 0 signature wins in the non-conference, having lost to Kansas and Louisville with wins over Florida and Texas. They have 2 Quadrant 2 losses, including at Illinois. They lost twice to Indiana. Their resume is just not that good. A lot of their troubles are due to injuries, no doubt. They've been bit bad by the injury bug. But so has Duke. When you look at the two resumes side-by-side, Duke would have to be a strong favorite to get the nod as a 1 seed over MSU - even with a B1G Tournament Title.

So the most likely scenario, as far as I can see it, is that Gonzaga, Virginia, Duke or UNC, and probably Kentucky or Tennessee will be the 1 Seeds on Sunday night with a slight chance of the ACC getting 3 1 seeds or Michigan sneaking in and taking the Midwest.