This Week in the ACC: 3/4-3/10

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

To me, this raises an interesting, though highly unlikely, hypothetical. Let's say that the committee finds that 5 of the top 8 teams in the country come from the same conference, making it impossible to avoid a region's 1 and 2 being from the same conference if seeds are given by rank. What would they do then? Bump one of them down to a 3 so as to avoid having the 1/2 problem? Or would they discard the rule?

And to the first option (bumping a team down) how is having a 1 and 3 from the same conference meaningfully different from having a 1 and 2 from the same conference?

Again, this is all hypothetical, as it's highly unlikely a conference will have 5 of the top 8 teams. Though I suppose it is entirely possible for a conference to have 5 of the top 12, which brings the 3 vs 2 question back to the forefront.

I imagine these are guidelines not rules. I cannot see the committee bumping a team down a line.

[UVa1981]

Inasmuch as this link is unlikely to have come to the attention of many on this board, I thought I would post it here: https://www.wralsportsfan.com/brownl...tion/18238093/

Brownlow's analysis and prediction for the Duke v. UNC game comes at the end of the article. It may not be the most insightful analysis, but it does give a view of what some of the rest of the world is seeing. She also predicts a Duke win. ;-)

Here is a more insightful post-mortem of the first Duke v. UNC game from Jordan Sperber, who does an excellent job (IMO) of analyzing who, how, and why of a basketball game: https://twitter.com/hoopvision68/sta...55251758100486. Sperber is very good with the analytics.

Personally, I'm predicting a Duke win as well. This is for a variety of reasons, led by two. I think the match-ups favor Duke at the PG and forwards, though Maye probably gets the nod in the middle. Advantage, Duke.

I also think Krzyzewski will do a better job than Williams of cleaning up first game problems. Particularly, I suspect UNC will have a lot harder time in this iteration of milking the slip screens and pin-down screens that they did to such effect in the first game. If, on top of that, Duke can reduce the UNC run-outs and secondary breaks (I think Duke will, but I'm very uncertain by how much), I really like Duke's chances.

My guess is Duke by 6-8.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Inasmuch as this link is unlikely to have come to the attention of many on this board, I thought I would post it here: https://www.wralsportsfan.com/brownl...tion/18238093/

Brownlow's analysis and prediction for the Duke v. UNC game comes at the end of the article. It may not be the most insightful analysis, but it does give a view of what some of the rest of the world is seeing. She also predicts a Duke win. ;-)

Here is a more insightful post-mortem of the first Duke v. UNC game from Jordan Sperber, who does an excellent job (IMO) of analyzing who, how, and why of a basketball game: https://twitter.com/hoopvision68/sta...55251758100486. Sperber is very good with the analytics.

Personally, I'm predicting a Duke win as well. This is for a variety of reasons, led by two. I think the match-ups favor Duke at the PG and forwards, though Maye probably gets the nod in the middle. Advantage, Duke.

I also think Krzyzewski will do a better job than Williams of cleaning up first game problems. Particularly, I suspect UNC will have a lot harder time in this iteration of milking the slip screens and pin-down screens that they did to such effect in the first game. If, on top of that, Duke can reduce the UNC run-outs and secondary breaks (I think Duke will, but I'm very uncertain by how much), I really like Duke's chances.

My guess is Duke by 6-8.

Great breakdown, but why is that hyphen there?

[JasonEvans]

Great breakdown, but why is that hyphen there?

Dear lord, someone please spork Mtn for me!!!

[UVa1981]

Great breakdown, but why is that hyphen there?

Vacillation is part of my modus operandi when it comes to making predictions for the future.

I do think Duke is more likely to win by 8 than by 6, in any event taking home a relatively comfortable road win.

Having given this game some more thought, in addition to match-ups and PG and forward and second-game adjustments being key, I think Reddish is a wild card. If he can have a good night from beyond the 3-point line and keep Johnson in check, Duke should spend the game running down hill.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Vacillation is part of my modus operandi when it comes to making predictions for the future.

I do think Duke is more likely to win by 8 than by 6, in any event taking home a relatively comfortable road win.

Having given this game some more thought, in addition to match-ups and PG and forward and second-game adjustments being key, I think Reddish is a wild card. If he can have a good night from beyond the 3-point line and keep Johnson in check, Duke should spend the game running down hill.

Aw, buddy, you missed my joke! You get sporks for your earnestness.

[Indoor66]

Vacillation is part of my modus operandi when it comes to making predictions for the future.

I do think Duke is more likely to win by 8 than by 6, in any event taking home a relatively comfortable road win.

Having given this game some more thought, in addition to match-ups and PG and forward and second-game adjustments being key, I think Reddish is a wild card. If he can have a good night from beyond the 3-point line and keep Johnson in check, Duke should spend the game running down hill.

Isn't Vacillation a little town east of Lizard Lick?

[English]

Dear lord, someone please spork Mtn for me!!!

All over it.

[PackMan97]

Ok Duke, the gauntlet has been thrown. 68 or bust!

[UVa1981]

Aw, buddy, you missed my joke! You get sporks for your earnestness.

Oh no, I think I got it, and I give you many sporks for cleverness (which is a trait I associate with Devils) plus humor.

Would I like to see Duke beat UNC by 68 points (that's it, no?)? That would be amusing, probably in ALL parts of the ACC not located in Chapel Hill.

You're right about the earnestness though. UVa1981's rules for posting on other teams' fansites (including the Hokies'):
1. if you're going to post anything, make sure it's constructive.
2. don't leave too many tracks on their board.
3. talk about your team only if it comes up in the colloquy or you're posting a pre-game breakdown of your team/players. See rule #1.
4. be respectful.
5. make sure you identify your school affiliation, so as to give the natives some context.

and, of course,
6. be earnest; lacking tonal, facial, and similar cues, it's easy to be misunderstood on another team's board if you try to be too nuanced.

I will admit that I sometimes break rule #6 if something occurs to me that I find irresistable.

Anyway, best of luck on Saturday. Here's hoping a healthy Williamson can return for that game. It would give the game a particularly interesting intrigue.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Oh no, I think I got it, and I give you many sporks for cleverness (which is a trait I associate with Devils) plus humor.

Would I like to see Duke beat UNC by 68 points (that's it, no?)? That would be amusing, probably in ALL parts of the ACC not located in Chapel Hill.

You're right about the earnestness though. UVa1981's rules for posting on other teams' fansites (including the Hokies'):
1. if you're going to post anything, make sure it's constructive.
2. don't leave too many tracks on their board.
3. talk about your team only if it comes up in the colloquy or you're posting a pre-game breakdown of your team/players. See rule #1.
4. be respectful.
5. make sure you identify your school affiliation, so as to give the natives some context.

and, of course,
6. be earnest; lacking tonal, facial, and similar cues, it's easy to be misunderstood on another team's board if you try to be too nuanced.

I will admit that I sometimes break rule #6 if something occurs to me that I find irresistable.

Anyway, best of luck on Saturday. Here's hoping a healthy Williamson can return for that game. It would give the game a particularly interesting intrigue.

Simply another great tribute to how classy Cavs fans on this board are.

I can't wish you good luck tomorrow, but I suspect you have a bright March ahead of you and will exorcise some demons.

[DallasDevil]

To me, this raises an interesting, though highly unlikely, hypothetical. Let's say that the committee finds that 5 of the top 8 teams in the country come from the same conference, making it impossible to avoid a region's 1 and 2 being from the same conference if seeds are given by rank. What would they do then? Bump one of them down to a 3 so as to avoid having the 1/2 problem? Or would they discard the rule?

And to the first option (bumping a team down) how is having a 1 and 3 from the same conference meaningfully different from having a 1 and 2 from the same conference?

Again, this is all hypothetical, as it's highly unlikely a conference will have 5 of the top 8 teams. Though I suppose it is entirely possible for a conference to have 5 of the top 12, which brings the 3 vs 2 question back to the forefront.

It's generally true that two teams from the same conference are not given the 1 and 2 seeds in the same region based on the committee's bracketing principles, but that's because I don't believe the hypothetical you presented has ever actually happened. In your scenario, 2 teams from the same conference could be placed in the same region. The key bracketing principles as it relates to teams from the same conference are as follows:

"Each of the first four teams selected from a conference shall be placed in different regions if they are seeded on the first four lines.

Teams from the same conference shall not meet prior to the regional final if they played each other three or more times during the regular season and conference tournament.

Teams from the same conference shall not meet prior to the regional semifinals if they played each other twice during the regular season and conference tournament.

Teams from the same conference may play each other as early as the second round if they played no more than once during the regular season and conference tournament.

Any principle can be relaxed if two or more teams from the same conference are among the last four at-large seeded teams participating in the First Four."

So, the top four teams from the conference would be placed in separate regions, but the fifth team could be placed in the same region as any of the other top four teams.

Link: https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball...-march-madness

[Bob Green]

Saturday

[189]Wake Forest (4-12) (+12) hosts [17]Florida State (11-5) (12:00, ACCNE)
[30]Clemson (7-9) (-3) hosts [32]Syracuse (10-6) (12:00)
[95]Pittsburgh (2-14) (-3) hosts [85]Notre Dame (3-13) (12:00, ACCNE)
[99]Boston College (5-11) (+3) hosts [34]NC State (8-8) (2:00, ACCNE)
[1]Virginia (14-2) (-13) hosts [23]Louisville (10-7) (4:00, ESPN)
[5]North Carolina (14-2) (+1) hosts [3]Duke (13-3) (6:00, ESPN)

A few good games on this final day of the regular season.

Clemson and N.C. State both need wins to finish at .500 in league play and check that block on their NCAAT resume. They have winnable games but this is Clemson and N.C. State so I wouldn't count any chickens.

Virginia should easily beat Louisville to sew up the #1 seed in the ACCT. Louisville appears to be a broken team who will roll over and die against Virginia's defensive pressure.

And in the regular season finale, I'm predicting a Duke victory. Shocking! This will set up the rubber match in the ACCT semi-finals.

[UVa1981]

Virginia should easily beat Louisville to sew up the #1 seed in the ACCT. Louisville appears to be a broken team who will roll over and die against Virginia's defensive pressure.

I'm not as sanguine about this outcome. We've beaten Louisville something like 8 consecutive times; sooner or later, the odds will catch up with us. We needed a miracle comeback to beat them at Louisville last year, when we trailed by double digits at the 5 minute mark and by 4 with .9 seconds left. We were down to them by double digits this year, but methodically came back to win in the second half. Louisville has beaten UNC and Virginia Tech on the road, plus they have a win over Michigan State. Chris Mack is a pretty good coach, and Jordan Nwora All-ACC forward (whether 1st, 2d, or 3d team I dunno, but he belongs in there somewhere).

Ain't counting this chicken yet.

[jv001]

I'm not as sanguine about this outcome. We've beaten Louisville something like 8 consecutive times; sooner or later, the odds will catch up with us. We needed a miracle comeback to beat them at Louisville last year, when we trailed by double digits at the 5 minute mark and by 4 with .9 seconds left. We were down to them by double digits this year, but methodically came back to win in the second half. Louisville has beaten UNC and Virginia Tech on the road, plus they have a win over Michigan State. Chris Mack is a pretty good coach, and Jordan Nwora All-ACC forward (whether 1st, 2d, or 3d team I dunno, but he belongs in there somewhere).

Ain't counting this chicken yet.

I bet Wake Forest fans would love to have Chris. Matter of fact, all my Wake golfing buddies want him. On your Cavs losing to Louisville, it ain't happening. The Cavs are on a magical ride for the egg they laid in last years NCAAT. GoDuke beat the CHEATS!

[BandAlum83]

I'm not as sanguine about this outcome. We've beaten Louisville something like 8 consecutive times; sooner or later, the odds will catch up with us. We needed a miracle comeback to beat them at Louisville last year, when we trailed by double digits at the 5 minute mark and by 4 with .9 seconds left. We were down to them by double digits this year, but methodically came back to win in the second half. Louisville has beaten UNC and Virginia Tech on the road, plus they have a win over Michigan State. Chris Mack is a pretty good coach, and Jordan Nwora All-ACC forward (whether 1st, 2d, or 3d team I dunno, but he belongs in there somewhere).

Ain't counting this chicken yet.

I'm definitely callig you out for your blatant attempt at a reverse jinx!

You guys will win by 22!

[DarkstarWahoo]

And I’m counter-calling out all the jinxing you-know-whats populating these parts! I can’t abide this. I won’t do it!

[jv001]

And I’m counter-calling out all the jinxing you-know-whats populating these parts! I can’t abide this. I won’t do it!

I'm rooting for you guys. I'm not rooting for anything that helps the CHEATING SCUM BAGS FROM CHAPEL HELL. Well maybe root for them to go un know where. GoDuke!

[Troublemaker]

I'm rooting for you guys. I'm not rooting for anything that helps the CHEATING SCUM BAGS FROM CHAPEL HELL. Well maybe root for them to go un know where. GoDuke!

I'm rooting for Duke to be the 1-seed in the ACC tourney. Two things have to happen, one of which is UVA losing.

[jv001]

I'm rooting for Duke to be the 1-seed in the ACC tourney. Two things have to happen, one of which is UVA losing.

If Duke beats the CHEATS tonight without Zion, I think we'll win the ACCT regardless of the seed. I just like the bird in a hand when it comes to those cheats. GoDuke!