MBB: Duke vs Miami (Saturday 3/2, 4pm ET) Pre-game and In-game Thread

[CDu]

Let's move on from last night. Post your thoughts here. Let's hope we see the return of Zion! Or at least the return of winning!

[Jeffrey]

Let's hope we see the return of Zion! Or at least the return of winning!

I'm predicting both.

[ndkjr70]

Zion or no Zion, this will be a blow-out.

As a UM alum, I've suffered through most of their games this season. This is Larranaga's worst team since he took over, and they will absolutely not compete with Duke. Their game against Carolina was only close because Chris Lykes, a 5-foot-2 87 pound point-guard, turned momentarily into Steph Curry.

They're 0-8 on the road. Their best win of the season, by a long-shot, is by 1-point at home over Clemson. They're bad on offense (67th) and worse on defense (96th). If this isn't a 20-point game by halftime, we've got big problems.

[jipops]

I think we'll see an uncomfortably close game. It's a bad time to be seeing the defense trend the way it is. Zion or no Zion, it could be awhile until this team gets back its late December/ early January mojo (pre Tyus Jones injury). I'm hoping this occurs by ACCT or NCAA time. But I don't expect it to happen this weekend or next week with Wake.

Just as much as I'd like to see the return of Zion, I'd like to see the return of Tre Jones as well.

[rocketeli]

Zion or no Zion, this will be a blow-out.

As a UM alum, I've suffered through most of their games this season. This is Larranaga's worst team since he took over, and they will absolutely not compete with Duke. Their game against Carolina was only close because Chris Lykes, a 5-foot-2 87 pound point-guard, turned momentarily into Steph Curry.

They're 0-8 on the road. Their best win of the season, by a long-shot, is by 1-point at home over Clemson. They're bad on offense (67th) and worse on defense (96th). If this isn't a 20-point game by halftime, we've got big problems.

Trying to reverse jinx your canes?
If there's one thing Duke fans have learned it is that you can throw out the record book when teams play Duke. It's their Superbowl and beating Duke will make their season and we wouldn't have it any other way. But it does make for tougher games.
Also, it's a bit disingenuous to call any major division 1 basketball team bad. They all are stocked with players that were the best in their county/area/state/country, and they all have large, top-of-the-profession coaching staffs, and they all have massive support entities, such as video tech, medical staff, training tables, weight rooms etc. (and at UNC people to take care of their classes for them). You can never just show up and expect to win.

[jimsumner]

I believe this game is scheduled for a 4 P.M. tipoff.

[ndkjr70]

Trying to reverse jinx your canes?
If there's one thing Duke fans have learned it is that you can throw out the record book when teams play Duke. It's their Superbowl and beating Duke will make their season and we wouldn't have it any other way. But it does make for tougher games.
Also, it's a bit disingenuous to call any major division 1 basketball team bad. They all are stocked with players that were the best in their county/area/state/country, and they all have large, top-of-the-profession coaching staffs, and they all have massive support entities, such as video tech, medical staff, training tables, weight rooms etc. (and at UNC people to take care of their classes for them). You can never just show up and expect to win.

Mom and Dad went to Duke. My first word was Duke. My first love was Duke. Only reason I chose Miami over Duke was for their 5-year professional degree in architecture; which Duke did not have. I cheer for my Canes plenty, but I worse a Duke jersey to every Miami / Duke basketball game during my time there. (One of those games was the 30-point blowout loss, the most I've ever hated my own school).

No reverse jinx here. DDMF.

[CDu]

After a tough loss against a good Va Tech team, the Devils look to bounce back against the 'Canes of Miami. To be kind, this is not Jim Larranaga's best team. They've lost a lot of players to early entry in the NBA, and he hasn't been able to restock with as much talent recently. No doubt the Adidas scandal hasn't helped, nor have injuries helped. But the result has been a pretty down year for Miami. They are 4-11 in conference, with their best results being a 1-point win at home over bubblicious Clemson and a near-victory-but-ultimately-overtime-loss against UNC in Chapel Hill.

The 'Canes are a mediocre-to-decent offensive team and a mediocre defensive team. On offense, they protect the ball well and hit the rare free throws they get, are an awful rebounding team and don't draw fouls, and are pretty mediocre to bad at everything else. They will take a lot of 3s, which along with the low turnover rate keeps their offense in the "okay" range. Defensively, the only thing they do well is avoid committing fouls. They are, in fact, spectacular at keeping opponents off the free throw line. But they rebound poorly, don't force turnovers, and don't block shots. And they don't prevent baskets terribly well.

It's not a deep squad, which doesn't help.

Centers: Ebuka Izundu (6'10", 230lb senior) is the man in the middle for Miami. He's an athletic and long player who isn't the most built of players, though he's worked hard to address that over his time. He's a very capable rebounder at both ends, a decent shotblocker, and a terrific finisher inside. He's improved as a free throw shooter, though he doesn't get there too often. He's perhaps the only guy who gets in foul trouble for the 'Canes, but that's a problem as hey don't really have another strong option behind him. Izundu is a big step down in skill from Blackshear, which will be a nice change of pace. Sam Waardenburg (6'10", 215lb sophomore from New Zealand) has been thrust into a more prominent role than expected or desired due to injuries (more on that later) and the ineligibility of Dewan Hernandez. Waardenburg is a good 3pt shooter, kind of a very poor man's Ryan Kelly. He doesn't rebound a ton and he doesn't have much strength. But he can space the floor. He plays essentially starter's minutes and often shares the floor with Izundu.

Forwards: Anthony Lawrence II (6'7" 210lb senior) is the only healthy forward. Lawrence is a slightly-undersized stretch 4 who can be a really dangerous shooter at times. He's also a decent passer, but limited as a ballhandler. Lawrence collects a decent percentage of defensive rebounds but is very limited in terms of offensive rebounding. The Canes don't really have another forward on the active roster. The only other guy with any size they had was Deng Gak (6'10", 210lb redshirt freshman from Australia). Gak was a highly-recruited player who redshirted last year. But he's out for the season after an early-season knee injury.

Wings: Dejan Vasilevic (6'3", 185lb junior from Australia) is the starter on the wing. Vasiljevic is a fire hydrant of a SG who can really stroke it from 3. That's more or less all he does. If he gets to the line (which is rare), he makes them at a 93% rate. Vasiljevic is physically strong but not quick and not a ballhandler or passer. He won't be able to contest Reddish's shot, but he could get Reddish to commit turnovers with physical play. The important thing is to not lose track of him on defense, because he is capable of shooting the lights out. The other key contributor on the wing is Zach Johnson (6'2", 190lb grad transfer from Florida Gulf Coast). Johnson is well built, and much more athletic than Vasiljevic. He was a star at FGCU last year, and is capable of hitting 3s and can be effective as a driver. He's sort of like an undersized RJ Barrett in that he's more of a scorer than a shooter. He's quicker than Barrett, but clearly not as good as Barrett. Just stylistically there are some similarities. Johnson also serves as their backup PG, though he's not a natural facilitator. The only other wing on the team is Anthony Mack (6'6", 215lb freshman). Mack came to Miami with a reputation as a good shooter but limited athlete. He's struggled in limited time to even provide the good shooting. Still, he's capable if left open. But he'll be physically overmatched if he is forced to guard Barrett at any point, let alone if Zion plays. Mack will play sparingly subbing in for Lawrence or one of the wings only as needed.

Guards: The 'Canes have only one guy at guard in Chris Lykes (5'7", 160lb sophomore). Lykes is electric. He is super quick and fearless with the ball in his hands. He also has some Barrett-like characteristics in that he's not a great 3pt shooter but is more than capable of getting hot from deep at any time. Staying in front of Lykes is a challenge, as he just constantly is moving and attacking, and is very clever in creating space for himself. He's also stronger than he looks. He might be even shorter than 5'7", though, and as such can be a defensive liability. He doesn't rebound at all, and doesn't force a ton of turnovers despite his quickness. Consistency is always a challenge for him, but he's capable of taking over a game and carrying the 'Canes. The one limitation is that he can get tunnel vision and isn't a natural distributor. But containing Lykes is probably the key to the game. If we can keep him from getting that irrational confidence going, the 'Canes are just really limited offensively elsewhere.

As you can see, Miami has basically no depth, and very few guys who are matchup problems. They are undersized across the board, and only have a few guys who are athletic concerns. Johnson and Lykes are the engines, with Lawrence, Vasiljevic, and Waardenburg providing some floor spacing, and Izundu capable of finishing at the rim. This is a much better matchup for us everywhere but at PG, where I think Lykes could be a tough assignment for Jones. But it's at home, and the talent disparity is huge. So let's hope this is a comfortable win.

[UrinalCake]

I'm not taking anybody for granted. GT was supposed to be a blowout. BC was supposed to be a blowout. Army was supposed to be a massacre. All of those teams were competitive deep into the second half. The team has concluded a brutal stretch and it will be natural for them to let up. Even if they don't, we've shot poorly at home all season. And if Zion doesn't play, that gives me even more cause for concern.

In an ideal world Zion returns and dominates, we get to pull the starters in the second half while our bench guys get some burn, White sinks a garbage time three to break the streak, and Baker makes some positive contributions. But Miami isn't going to just roll over and die for us; it is more likely that this game stays competitive longer than any of us would like.

[CDu]

I'm not taking anybody for granted. GT was supposed to be a blowout. BC was supposed to be a blowout. Army was supposed to be a massacre. All of those teams were competitive deep into the second half. The team has concluded a brutal stretch and it will be natural for them to let up. Even if they don't, we've shot poorly at home all season. And if Zion doesn't play, that gives me even more cause for concern.

In an ideal world Zion returns and dominates, we get to pull the starters in the second half while our bench guys get some burn, White sinks a garbage time three to break the streak, and Baker makes some positive contributions. But Miami isn't going to just roll over and die for us; it is more likely that this game stays competitive longer than any of us would like.

Obviously. The counter to that is that Duke had no business beating UVa without Jones, and probably shouldn't have won by 10 at UVa. Almost any team can be beaten, especially if they aren't at full strength like we are. That doesn't change that this "should" be a win. Could it be a loss? Sure. Will it likely be competitive for at least some stretch of the game? Very possibly. Is it a game that we "should" win and win comfortably? Yes.

Also, worth noting that your examples here aren't great. We beat Ga Tech by 13. We beat BC by 25. Neither of those are wildly off the expected margin of victory.

[proelitedota]

This game will be competitive. Mark my words.

[CDu]

This game will be competitive. Mark my words.

Again, sure. Any ACC game can be competitive. We're "only" expected to win by 20, and that's based on a heavy majority of games played with Zion. If Zion is out, I'd expect the true "expected" margin to be more like 12 or so. That leaves lots of room for it to be a competitive game. Especially depending on what one's definition of "competitive" is.

If Zion DOES play, I'd expect this to be a blowout. Perhaps not a "from the opening tip" blowout as teams aren't metronomes (hence my comment about what one's definition of "competitive" is). But if Zion plays regular minutes, I'd expect this to be a 20+ point victory.

[Natty_B]

I think we'll see an uncomfortably close game. It's a bad time to be seeing the defense trend the way it is. Zion or no Zion, it could be awhile until this team gets back its late December/ early January mojo (pre Tyus Jones injury). I'm hoping this occurs by ACCT or NCAA time. But I don't expect it to happen this weekend or next week with Wake.

Just as much as I'd like to see the return of Zion, I'd like to see the return of Tre Jones as well.

I recall Phil Jackson once saying don't get too high on the highs or too low on the lows. Probably applicable here. Miami is 70 in Kenpom well below St. John's and N.C. State.

[AZLA]

Obviously. The counter to that is that Duke had no business beating UVa without Jones, and probably shouldn't have won by 10 at UVa. Almost any team can be beaten, especially if they aren't at full strength like we are. That doesn't change that this "should" be a win. Could it be a loss? Sure. Will it likely be competitive for at least some stretch of the game? Very possibly. Is it a game that we "should" win and win comfortably? Yes.

Also, worth noting that your examples here aren't great. We beat Ga Tech by 13. We beat BC by 25. Neither of those are wildly off the expected margin of victory.

Well "should" and "comfortably" do not give much comfort considering Miami had the win against UNC at the Smith Center, if not for a late 3 to throw it into overtime. Agreed Duke should win, but, it's uncanny how Miami seems to relish playing in Cameron, not fear it.

[gofurman]

Zion or no Zion, this will be a blow-out.

As a UM alum, I've suffered through most of their games this season. This is Larranaga's worst team since he took over, and they will absolutely not compete with Duke. Their game against Carolina was only close because Chris Lykes, a 5-foot-2 87 pound point-guard, turned momentarily into Steph Curry.

They're 0-8 on the road. Their best win of the season, by a long-shot, is by 1-point at home over Clemson. They're bad on offense (67th) and worse on defense (96th). If this isn't a 20-point game by halftime, we've got big problems.

I saw Miami beat Clemson. That’s a decent win. And a Lykes you always have a shot - he can play

[Mak P]

IN before Tre 40 mins

[gofurman]

I saw Miami beat Clemson. That’s a decent win. And a Lykes you always have a shot - he can play

Miami Shoulda beat UNC. If we are without Zion anything is possible - never say we should be up 20 at half

[Saratoga2]

After a tough loss against a good Va Tech team, the Devils look to bounce back against the 'Canes of Miami. To be kind, this is not Jim Larranaga's best team. They've lost a lot of players to early entry in the NBA, and he hasn't been able to restock with as much talent recently. No doubt the Adidas scandal hasn't helped, nor have injuries helped. But the result has been a pretty down year for Miami. They are 4-11 in conference, with their best results being a 1-point win at home over bubblicious Clemson and a near-victory-but-ultimately-overtime-loss against UNC in Chapel Hill.

The 'Canes are a mediocre-to-decent offensive team and a mediocre defensive team. On offense, they protect the ball well and hit the rare free throws they get, are an awful rebounding team and don't draw fouls, and are pretty mediocre to bad at everything else. They will take a lot of 3s, which along with the low turnover rate keeps their offense in the "okay" range. Defensively, the only thing they do well is avoid committing fouls. They are, in fact, spectacular at keeping opponents off the free throw line. But they rebound poorly, don't force turnovers, and don't block shots. And they don't prevent baskets terribly well.

It's not a deep squad, which doesn't help.

Centers: Ebuka Izundu (6'10", 230lb senior) is the man in the middle for Miami. He's an athletic and long player who isn't the most built of players, though he's worked hard to address that over his time. He's a very capable rebounder at both ends, a decent shotblocker, and a terrific finisher inside. He's improved as a free throw shooter, though he doesn't get there too often. He's perhaps the only guy who gets in foul trouble for the 'Canes, but that's a problem as hey don't really have another strong option behind him. Izundu is a big step down in skill from Blackshear, which will be a nice change of pace. Sam Waardenburg (6'10", 215lb sophomore from New Zealand) has been thrust into a more prominent role than expected or desired due to injuries (more on that later) and the ineligibility of Dewan Hernandez. Waardenburg is a good 3pt shooter, kind of a very poor man's Ryan Kelly. He doesn't rebound a ton and he doesn't have much strength. But he can space the floor. He plays essentially starter's minutes and often shares the floor with Izundu.

Forwards: Anthony Lawrence II (6'7" 210lb senior) is the only healthy forward. Lawrence is a slightly-undersized stretch 4 who can be a really dangerous shooter at times. He's also a decent passer, but limited as a ballhandler. Lawrence collects a decent percentage of defensive rebounds but is very limited in terms of offensive rebounding. The Canes don't really have another forward on the active roster. The only other guy with any size they had was Deng Gak (6'10", 210lb redshirt freshman from Australia). Gak was a highly-recruited player who redshirted last year. But he's out for the season after an early-season knee injury.

Wings: Dejan Vasilevic (6'3", 185lb junior from Australia) is the starter on the wing. Vasiljevic is a fire hydrant of a SG who can really stroke it from 3. That's more or less all he does. If he gets to the line (which is rare), he makes them at a 93% rate. Vasiljevic is physically strong but not quick and not a ballhandler or passer. He won't be able to contest Reddish's shot, but he could get Reddish to commit turnovers with physical play. The important thing is to not lose track of him on defense, because he is capable of shooting the lights out. The other key contributor on the wing is Zach Johnson (6'2", 190lb grad transfer from Florida Gulf Coast). Johnson is well built, and much more athletic than Vasiljevic. He was a star at FGCU last year, and is capable of hitting 3s and can be effective as a driver. He's sort of like an undersized RJ Barrett in that he's more of a scorer than a shooter. He's quicker than Barrett, but clearly not as good as Barrett. Just stylistically there are some similarities. Johnson also serves as their backup PG, though he's not a natural facilitator. The only other wing on the team is Anthony Mack (6'6", 215lb freshman). Mack came to Miami with a reputation as a good shooter but limited athlete. He's struggled in limited time to even provide the good shooting. Still, he's capable if left open. But he'll be physically overmatched if he is forced to guard Barrett at any point, let alone if Zion plays. Mack will play sparingly subbing in for Lawrence or one of the wings only as needed.

Guards: The 'Canes have only one guy at guard in Chris Lykes (5'7", 160lb sophomore). Lykes is electric. He is super quick and fearless with the ball in his hands. He also has some Barrett-like characteristics in that he's not a great 3pt shooter but is more than capable of getting hot from deep at any time. Staying in front of Lykes is a challenge, as he just constantly is moving and attacking, and is very clever in creating space for himself. He's also stronger than he looks. He might be even shorter than 5'7", though, and as such can be a defensive liability. He doesn't rebound at all, and doesn't force a ton of turnovers despite his quickness. Consistency is always a challenge for him, but he's capable of taking over a game and carrying the 'Canes. The one limitation is that he can get tunnel vision and isn't a natural distributor. But containing Lykes is probably the key to the game. If we can keep him from getting that irrational confidence going, the 'Canes are just really limited offensively elsewhere.

As you can see, Miami has basically no depth, and very few guys who are matchup problems. They are undersized across the board, and only have a few guys who are athletic concerns. Johnson and Lykes are the engines, with Lawrence, Vasiljevic, and Waardenburg providing some floor spacing, and Izundu capable of finishing at the rim. This is a much better matchup for us everywhere but at PG, where I think Lykes could be a tough assignment for Jones. But it's at home, and the talent disparity is huge. So let's hope this is a comfortable win.

Thanks for the analysis. I wonder what one covering Duke would look like, but then, we all have put in our 2 cents worth on that.

[Pghdukie]

I believe this game is scheduled for a 4 P.M. tipoff.

It is being televised by CBS. Hopefully we dont get Clark Kellogg as the color man. He is an absolute Duke hater. IMO !

[uh_no]

It is being televised by CBS. Hopefully we dont get Clark Kellogg as the color man. He is an absolute Duke hater. IMO !

He is also the most moronic of all the commentators. The ESPN guys may have their schtick, but generally they are at least OFTEN knowledgeable, if even they are terrible at conveying it and sometimes wildly off.

Kelloggs best analysis is coming up with a list of the most clicheed one liners he can and rules about when to say them, then just repeating them when the time is right. The average quality of his contribution is (and he actually said this):

(with UL down against UK in the final four):

They're going to have to outscore Kentucky the rest of the way to win this

Really Clark? Ya think? It's like he took the crap he had to record for the NBA 2Kxx games and thought that was how you actually did commentary. He's like Madden, but without any actual knowledge of the game. Mercifully, CBS realized he provides no actual analysis and relegated him to the studio during march madness a few years ago.