MBB: Duke at Syracuse (Sat, 2/23, 6pm ET, ESPN) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[CDu]

I totally get your point, but I think we as a fan base are losing confidence that Jack and Alex, for the most part, are currently capable of your bolded comments above. Yes, at one point they were both capable, but right now we haven't seen much out of either of them and can't count on them for anything other than perhaps a few rebounds or putbacks. The Jack White you mention above has completely disappeared and I'm not sure we've seen that Alex since last season.

O'Connell was capable of it just a few weeks ago (Notre Dame) and a week prior to that (Syracuse). White's most recent occurrence was against Clemson. They didn't suddenly lose the ability to do it in the span of a few weeks.

And again, they don't need to do it regularly. They just MIGHT (and might not) need to do it once.

[Rich]

O'Connell was capable of it just a few weeks ago (Notre Dame) and a week prior to that (Syracuse). White's most recent occurrence was against Clemson. They didn't suddenly lose the ability to do it in the span of a few weeks.

And again, they don't need to do it regularly. They just MIGHT (and might not) need to do it once.

I guess it only feels that way.

By the way, I always enjoy reading your posts and Kedsy's posts, especially in the same thread when you react to each other with additional data points. The advanced metrics are really fascinating and it's amazing how "gut feelings" aren't necessarily supported by the data.

For instance, as much as I feel we are going to have a tough time winning a national championship with our current inability to consistently shoot the three, you two have pretty much debunked that with eFG% data. It makes me feel better (for a few hours), and then I go back to being pessimistic.

[CDu]

I guess it only feels that way.

To be fair, I should probably have said "I think it's highly unlikely that they suddenly lost the ability." I just feel like all it will take is for one shot to go down and they'll return to their normal psyche.

Now, I don't think either is going to be a double-double machine or high-volume shooter with any regularity this season. But I think they very much still have it in them for it to happen in a one-off scenario.

But, it's all speculation at this point.

By the way, I always enjoy reading your posts and Kedsy's posts, especially in the same thread when you react to each other with additional data points. The advanced metrics are really fascinating and it's amazing how "gut feelings" aren't necessarily supported by the data.

For instance, as much as I feel we are going to have a tough time winning a national championship with our current inability to consistently shoot the three, you two have pretty much debunked that with eFG% data. It makes me feel better (for a few hours), and then I go back to being pessimistic.

Thanks for the kind words. Yeah, I totally understand the gut feelings. I work in an analytical field, so my nature is to always take a look at the numbers to cross-check what I feel. And often times there is a divergence. Plus, I just really like math. But I think it's helpful to camp all gut feelings with some sort of evidence beyond the anecdotal, because anecdotal evidence tends to be skewed by small sample sizes and recall bias (both positive and negative).

[HereBeforeCoachK]

O'Connell was capable of it just a few weeks ago (Notre Dame) and a week prior to that (Syracuse). White's most recent occurrence was against Clemson. They didn't suddenly lose the ability to do it in the span of a few weeks.

And again, they don't need to do it regularly. They just MIGHT (and might not) need to do it once.

IIRC, Jack was far and away the team winner shooting 3 pointers in practice, and IIRC it was a high volume of shots. Practice isn't a game, and I get that, but at its core, the ability to shoot is the ability to shoot. Jack gets game opportunities that are wide open, much like practice. He has hit at least two of these in big time game pressure situations (Texas Tech I think - one was waived off on a BS charging call on the passer, but Jack didn't know that when he nailed the shot under pressure. The other counted and I think maybe our first lead in a while).

So we know Jack can...and that he has...and at least a few in big moments. We need that possibility to rear its head again.

[duke79]

Just got a push from CBS Sports that Zion has been declared out for tomorrow's game at Syracuse. Certainly not unexpected. I'm sure the GOAT and staff have come up with an effective strategy for us to win this game. And please, dear God, let us shoot well! LGD GTHc! 9F!

My memory may be faulty but I think this is one of the WORST outside shooting teams in the K era. Admittedly, Cam Reddish does seem to be shooting better lately, when he squares up and has a clean shot but the rest of the team has, for the most part, been horrendous. I've seen high school teams that shoot the ball better. No doubt it hurt us in the Carolina game and a few other games this year. I'm just not sure we can go all the way unless the shooting DOES improve!

[Kedsy]

My memory may be faulty but I think this is one of the WORST outside shooting teams in the K era. Admittedly, Cam Reddish does seem to be shooting better lately, when he squares up and has a clean shot but the rest of the team has, for the most part, been horrendous. I've seen high school teams that shoot the ball better. No doubt it hurt us in the Carolina game and a few other games this year. I'm just not sure we can go all the way unless the shooting DOES improve!

This team has the worst three-point shooting percentage in Duke history. But as long as our two-point shooting percentage remains the best in Duke history (or at least since the three-point shot was invented), I don't agree with your final sentence.

[fathippo]

IIRC, Jack was far and away the team winner shooting 3 pointers in practice, and IIRC it was a high volume of shots. Practice isn't a game, and I get that, but at its core, the ability to shoot is the ability to shoot. Jack gets game opportunities that are wide open, much like practice. He has hit at least two of these in big time game pressure situations (Texas Tech I think - one was waived off on a BS charging call on the passer, but Jack didn't know that when he nailed the shot under pressure. The other counted and I think maybe our first lead in a while).

So we know Jack can...and that he has...and at least a few in big moments. We need that possibility to rear its head again.

It is uncanny watching Jack shoot in shootaround and then watch him shoot the same open shot in games now. He rarely misses a three in practice. Practice doesn't always translate to games, but in this case he was a 41% 3-pt shooter (21-51) in the first 13 games and is 1 of 24 in the last 13 games. It really is unbelievable how a good shooter (IMO) could be on such a cold streak. I still have faith in him; dude just needs to keep shooting. There will be some situation in the tournament when we will need a major contribution from Jack, AOC, or Marquese to survive; it is the case every year.

[Duke79UNLV77]

I think White and AOC could regain their confidence and their shots at any time. As another option, what about J Rob? He’s got good length and athleticism and can hit a standstill 3. He has other limitations, but we don’t need him to do a lot.

[uh_no]

I don't agree with your final sentence.

you don't agree that duke79 is not sure that duke can go all the way? I on the other hand feel I am in no position to say what duke79 is or is not sure about.

[Kedsy]

you don't agree that duke79 is not sure that duke can go all the way? I on the other hand feel I am in no position to say what duke79 is or is not sure about.

Touche'.

[duke79]

This team has the worst three-point shooting percentage in Duke history. But as long as our two-point shooting percentage remains the best in Duke history (or at least since the three-point shot was invented), I don't agree with your final sentence.

Yea, I hope I'm wrong and no doubt Duke has been dominant inside in most games this season (or at least Zion has been dominant) but as you go farther in the tournament and play better and better teams, you have to assume that the coaching staffs will TRY to figure out a way to shut Duke down inside. If you have to rely on outside shooting and you're only making a small percentage of those outside shots, that is usually not a good strategy to win. (and never mind the poor free throw shooting).

[Kedsy]

Yea, I hope I'm wrong and no doubt Duke has been dominant inside in most games this season (or at least Zion has been dominant) but as you go farther in the tournament and play better and better teams, you have to assume that the coaching staffs will TRY to figure out a way to shut Duke down inside. If you have to rely on outside shooting and you're only making a small percentage of those outside shots, that is usually not a good strategy to win. (and never mind the poor free throw shooting).

Yeah, we'll see. I still remember the "good old days" when DBR posters spent incessant angst worrying about us taking so many three-point shots because we would "live or die by the three."

[Rich]

Yea, I hope I'm wrong and no doubt Duke has been dominant inside in most games this season (or at least Zion has been dominant) but as you go farther in the tournament and play better and better teams, you have to assume that the coaching staffs will TRY to figure out a way to shut Duke down inside. If you have to rely on outside shooting and you're only making a small percentage of those outside shots, that is usually not a good strategy to win. (and never mind the poor free throw shooting).

We've recently played Louisville and Virginia twice and both have defenses that are geared precisely to take away the inside game so the fact that Zion has still been dominant says something. We'll see teams as we go (hopefully far) through the tournament that are better and better, but most will not be better than Louisville and certainly not UVA.

And, as I mentioned earlier in this thread or some other thread this afternoon, as much as many of us feel we need to be better at three point shooting, the advanced metrics (eFG%) don't support that because our 2 point shooting has been so good, even against defenses designed to take away the 2 point shot.

[Troublemaker]

Whoa, Duke is opening as 4.5 / 5-pt favorites: http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-...dds/las-vegas/

I'm optimistic that this team is still really good without Zion, but that's higher than I expected.

[CDu]

Whoa, Duke is opening as 4.5 / 5-pt favorites: http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-...dds/las-vegas/

I'm optimistic that this team is still really good without Zion, but that's higher than I expected.

Torvik views this game as a 7.4 point Duke favorite. That is based on Zion’s contributions to date. So, I would concur that a 4.5 line seems optimistic.

That being said, we do still have the two most talented players, the of the four most talented, and four of the six/seven most talented players in this game, even without Zion.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Whoa, Duke is opening as 4.5 / 5-pt favorites: http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-...dds/las-vegas/

I'm optimistic that this team is still really good without Zion, but that's higher than I expected.

There's so much emotion swirling around this one....Zion and Boeheim's tragedy...I've no idea what will happen.

[NSDukeFan]

Yeah, we'll see. I still remember the "good old days" when DBR posters spent incessant angst worrying about us taking so many three-point shots because we would "live or die by the three."

I think the problem is that you likely helped show too many people how efficient 3-point shooting can be, over many years of the incessant angst. Now you’re trying to tell everyone there’s more than one way to skin a cat and we can now win without the 3? That could take a few more years of angst.😀

[Fish80]

Who starts? The three super frosh. Bolden. One of AOC, White, or DeLaurier. I’m thinking DeLaurier. Just a hunch.

[uh_no]

Who starts? The three super frosh. Bolden. One of AOC, White, or DeLaurier. I’m thinking DeLaurier. Just a hunch.

joey baker!!!!


(/s)

IN all seriousness, I bet it'll be white. It's a bit of a downer, but we have to pick and choose our times to use delaurier, so it could be worthwhile to see how the team is playing/game is going before putting him in in the situations/lineups where he'll be most effective.

I also think jack is just that little bit stronger than delaurier and without zion, any little bit helps (though it's the difference between a toddler an and infant trying to emulate arnold schwarzenegger...)

[CajunDevil]

Do we go to a zone tomorrow to provide more consistent paint protection than we had in UNC game and save some energy while Zion is out?