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  1. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Block rate is the percentage of field goal attempts resulting in a block. For the NBA at least, they calculate it based only on 2pt attempts. I assume they do the same in college. So it is not possession-based.
    Wait, so Zion's ridiculous block in the UVA game didn't count towards block percentage? This is a shame.

  2. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Block rate is the percentage of field goal attempts resulting in a block. For the NBA at least, they calculate it based only on 2pt attempts. I assume they do the same in college. So it is not possession-based.
    Huh. What about 3-point shot attempts?


  3. #23
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by robed deity View Post
    Wait, so Zion's ridiculous block in the UVA game didn't count towards block percentage? This is a shame.
    No, it still contributes. The actual calculation takes into account total blocks, irrespective of where the shot came from. But at least in the NBA, it doesn't penalize for facing 3pt attempts, which are harder to block. The denominator is 2pt FGA. So in the NBA at least, it's possible to have an infinite block rate (if you face a 3pt attempt and block it). I assume the same is true in college.

    The calculation is 100 * (BLK * (Tm MP / 5)) / (MP * (Opp FGA - Opp 3PA)). For a team, the "MP" stuff just cancels out and it is blocks/(Opp FGA - Opp 3PA).

  4. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    No, it still contributes. The actual calculation takes into account total blocks, irrespective of where the shot came from. But at least in the NBA, it doesn't penalize for facing 3pt attempts, which are harder to block. The denominator is 2pt FGA. So in the NBA at least, it's possible to have an infinite block rate (if you face a 3pt attempt and block it). I assume the same is true in college.

    The calculation is 100 * (BLK * (Tm MP / 5)) / (MP * (Opp FGA - Opp 3PA)). For a team, the "MP" stuff just cancels out and it is blocks/(Opp FGA - Opp 3PA).
    Ah, gotcha. Yes, "harder to block" for non-superheroes.

  5. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Percent chance of Duke winning each remaining game, according to T-rank:
    UNC - 81% (4-to-1)
    @Syr - 81% (4-to-1)
    @VT - 67% (2-to-1)
    Miami - 96% (19-out-of-20)
    Wake - 99% (99-out-of-100)
    @UNC - 54% (50-50)
    Wait . . Duke is given an 81% chance of winning tonight against UNC?

    That's much higher than I expected, even at home. Maybe I'm not understanding the factors that lead to that percentage.

  6. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by duke4ever19 View Post
    Wait . . Duke is given an 81% chance of winning tonight against UNC?

    That's much higher than I expected, even at home. Maybe I'm not understanding the factors that lead to that percentage.
    ...but only 2/3 chance at VT...seems like these odds think home/away is the main consideration.

  7. #27
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    New York, NY
    Quote Originally Posted by House G View Post
    One of my pet peeves in the OAD era has been the lack of fundamentals with regard to defensive rebounding...
    Rashomon

    There are many ways to look at defensive rebounding.

    Told from the perspective of the shooting team, a defensive rebound is a guilt-laden tragedy both in regards to the missed shot and the lost opportunity for Redemption.

    Told from the perspective of a defensive traditionalist, few things are as romantic to Witness as a solid block out between Gladiators.

    From a different perspective, a large number of defensive rebounds might mean that our big guys have simply planted themselves near the basket and aren't actively switching, chasing, and creating the sort of defensive mayhem that has made them Notorious.

    Told from the perspective of our freshmen, a defensive rebound is delightful--the defensive rebound (or steal, or blocked shot) can instantly transform into to an individual coast to coast sprint of Speed, or maybe a Vertigo-inducing game of keepaway (between 2 of The Usual Suspects, or maybe with the Third Man), or a 30 foot pass to one of our team's many great finishers--which, in turn, can lead to an efficient 2 points, a demoralizing turnaround, and a Sportcenter Memento for one of our Natural Born Killers.

  8. #28
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh
    Quote Originally Posted by HereBeforeCoachK View Post
    ...but only 2/3 chance at VT...seems like these odds think home/away is the main consideration.
    That's because we'll be playing 5 vs 9 in HokieTown when you include swofford's finest AND the Buzz, all of whom will be on the court for VT at the same time.
    [redacted] them and the horses they rode in on.

  9. #29
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by duke4ever19 View Post
    Wait . . Duke is given an 81% chance of winning tonight against UNC?

    That's much higher than I expected, even at home. Maybe I'm not understanding the factors that lead to that percentage.
    Yes, we've been expected to win by 80+% chance for a while now, and the 81% is actually down a bit from almost 85% recently (thanks to our slight underperformances in wins against Louisville and NC State and UNC's obliterating Wake).

    Quote Originally Posted by HereBeforeCoachK View Post
    ...but only 2/3 chance at VT...seems like these odds think home/away is the main consideration.
    More or less, yes. Torvik has an 11-point expected spread tonight and a 4.6 point spread expected for the Va Tech game. If you think of home vs neutral as a 5 point edge and road vs neutral as a 5 pt disadvantage, you'll see that Duke would be slightly more favored against Va Tech than against UNC on a neutral site. Which makes sense, since Torvik has UNC as the #8 team nationally and Va Tech as the # 15 team nationally. As we can see, Torvik thinks we are a 1.2 point favorite to win at UNC (54% chance).

  10. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by devildeac View Post
    That's because we'll be playing 5 vs 9 in HokieTown when you include swofford's finest AND the Buzz, all of whom will be on the court for VT at the same time.
    Ah, yes, and only VT will have night vision goggles, necessary for that arena....

  11. #31
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Mechanicsburg, PA
    It seems like everyone keeps forgetting that Reddish missed the Syracuse game. In the CBS game preview it only mentions Duke being without Tre. ugh

  12. #32
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    San Francisco
    Quote Originally Posted by johnb View Post
    Rashomon

    There are many ways to look at defensive rebounding.

    Told from the perspective of the shooting team, a defensive rebound is a guilt-laden tragedy both in regards to the missed shot and the lost opportunity for Redemption.

    Told from the perspective of a defensive traditionalist, few things are as romantic to Witness as a solid block out between Gladiators.

    From a different perspective, a large number of defensive rebounds might mean that our big guys have simply planted themselves near the basket and aren't actively switching, chasing, and creating the sort of defensive mayhem that has made them Notorious.

    Told from the perspective of our freshmen, a defensive rebound is delightful--the defensive rebound (or steal, or blocked shot) can instantly transform into to an individual coast to coast sprint of Speed, or maybe a Vertigo-inducing game of keepaway (between 2 of The Usual Suspects, or maybe with the Third Man), or a 30 foot pass to one of our team's many great finishers--which, in turn, can lead to an efficient 2 points, a demoralizing turnaround, and a Sportcenter Memento for one of our Natural Born Killers.
    Definitely the post of this thread. Can’t spork but I wanted to give credit where credit is due.

  13. #33
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by COYS View Post
    Definitely the post of this thread. Can’t spork but I wanted to give credit where credit is due.
    Yeah, I too am unable to spork JohnB, I implore someone else to pick up the slack.
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  14. #34
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh
    Quote Originally Posted by COYS View Post
    Definitely the post of this thread. Can’t spork but I wanted to give credit where credit is due.
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Yeah, I too am unable to spork JohnB, I implore someone else to pick up the slack.
    I am here to serve, whether it be beer or sporks. Done.
    [redacted] them and the horses they rode in on.

  15. #35
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Yeah, I too am unable to spork JohnB, I implore someone else to pick up the slack.
    yes, poetic post of the day, may it lead to a glorious and memorable evening.

  16. #36
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Athens, GA
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    ... I'm not sure how different it is. For example, last season we played 13 ACC regular season games with margins under 20 points. In those games our player with the 8th-most minutes (in that game; not always the same player) averaged 4.5 mpg and the 9th averaged 2.3 mpg. This season, we've played 9 ACC games with margins under 20 points. In those games our player with the 8th-most minutes averaged 6.0 mpg and the 9th averaged 2.7 mpg. And those numbers are skewed by the Clemson game which was a major rout that ended at 19 points because the bench guys were severely outplayed. Not counting that game, our 8th-most-minutes guy has averaged 4.9 mpg and our 9th-most-minutes guy has averaged 2.1 mpg. Basically the same as last year. I don't feel like doing this analysis for any previous seasons, but my guess is this season is not "pretty different" (or really different at all) in this regard.
    I think the implication was that it might be different going forward, not over the season up to this point - the 8th and 9th minutes-played are 12/6 and 4/4 over the last two games. We'll have to see.



    Quote Originally Posted by superdave View Post
    ... Coach Scheyer famously said in the wake of the win at UVA that this club is a really good shooting team in practice. We certainly hope his expectations of stronger outside shooting come to pass. We get giddy thinking about what the rest of the season would be like if Duke is really a 35% 3-point shooting team and spend the next 2 months bringing their average up to where it belongs.
    Nice thought, but we can't expect them to shoot at a higher rate than their "true" average just to bring the season average up to the true rate. If they can avoid 9 for 43 games, I'll be happy.

  17. #37
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    New York, NY
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    yes, poetic post of the day, may it lead to a glorious and memorable evening.
    Thanks!

    There's no greater sound of music than the silence of the lambs!

  18. #38
    Quote Originally Posted by dukelifer View Post
    ...foul trouble remains a huge concern.
    I understand that anybody can get into foul trouble in any particular game, but I hope you're not saying Duke is prone to foul trouble? We are the 5th best team in the country at keeping our opponents off the free throw line.

    Quote Originally Posted by House G View Post
    One of my pet peeves in the OAD era has been the lack of fundamentals with regard to defensive rebounding.
    Duke under Coach K has always been a poor defensive rebounding team. Even in the 80s and 90s when we didn't have any OADs.

    Quote Originally Posted by crimsondevil View Post
    I think the implication was that it might be different going forward, not over the season up to this point - the 8th and 9th minutes-played are 12/6 and 4/4 over the last two games. We'll have to see.
    Yes, we'll have to see. Personally, I'm not a big believer in two game samples.

  19. #39
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    No, it still contributes. The actual calculation takes into account total blocks, irrespective of where the shot came from. But at least in the NBA, it doesn't penalize for facing 3pt attempts, which are harder to block. The denominator is 2pt FGA. So in the NBA at least, it's possible to have an infinite block rate (if you face a 3pt attempt and block it). I assume the same is true in college.

    The calculation is 100 * (BLK * (Tm MP / 5)) / (MP * (Opp FGA - Opp 3PA)). For a team, the "MP" stuff just cancels out and it is blocks/(Opp FGA - Opp 3PA).
    This is exactly how they calculate it in college. Blocks/2-pt FGA. Which means that in a way Zion's block of Hunter actually unjustly enriched our block percentage, since it counts in the numerator but not the denominator.

  20. #40
    Quote Originally Posted by duke2x View Post
    It's approaching the most wonderful time of the year again. I offer the only website I can find that will let you figure out conference tournament seeds:

    http://bball.notnothing.net/acc.php?sport=mbb

    Of interest--Duke seems to have locked up a 8 seed at least. There is one bracket possibility where #1 Duke gets UNC as a #9 and UVA as a #5.
    Nice! Someone share this with Lunardi next time he discusses a "lock."


    Sporks for you, friend!

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