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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington DC

    Phase V - 2018-2019 - UNC#1 through UNC#2

    A Star Is Born - aka Introduction to Phase V
    Duke has won nine straight since the loss to Cuse. Phase V is the stretch run to earn a double bye in the ACC Tournament and not only a 1-seed in the NCAA’s but the overall 1-seed with a claim to the East Regional (Columbia SC first weekend, Washington DC second).

    Since Jason Evans is a movie fanatic, we’re aiming for an Oscar themed Phase writeup. If you don’t like it, well, that’s just, like, your opinion, man.

    The Fault In Our Stars – aka Please let our players stay Healthy
    This section does not need to be long. Duke is simply not a deep enough team to absorb an injury and not take a step back. We saw in the first Syracuse game how losing Tre left the team somewhat flummoxed on offense against that zone. The truly unique nature of our four freshmen make them irreplaceable. Cross your fingers, toes, and any other appendage you can cross that we don't have to deal with any injuries any more this season.

    To The Gauntlet and Beyond – aka The Schedule
    ESPN's BPI says that Duke's 6 game stretch from @Virginia through @Va Tech is the toughest six game stretch of any team in the country. Wrap your head around that for a second. 6 straight games against tournament teams, 4 of which are on the road. Bart Torvik's T-rank page has the odds of winning every individual game on his site and if you multiply it out, T-rank says Duke has just a 7.4% chance of making it through the 6 game stretch unbeaten. It is a gauntlet and then some...

    ...And halfway through it Duke is 3-0 with arguably the two toughest games (@UVa and @Lou) in the rear-view mirror. Now, T-rank still only gives Duke a 43.9% chance of finishing out the Gauntlet unblemished, but this team sure looks like it is capable of remarkable stuff.

    Once the Gauntlet is over, things ease up... a lot. We get a pair of home games with Miami and Wake, two teams who are going nowhere. The team has been prone to lack of focus at times this season, though they usually are able to turn it on in the second half and find victory (often by crazy margins). Could a let up following the Gauntlet lead to a head scratching loss to Wake or (more likely) Miami?

    Then the regular season (and this phase) concludes with the Carolina rematch. No worries about a lack of focus there.

    No Country For Old Men – aka As the Rotation Tightens
    Tre Jones went the full 40 in each of our last three games. Alex O’Connell had a DNP then 6 then 4 minutes. It’s that time of year, DBR! Bolden and DeLaurier still seem to be in a semi-platoon situation depending on matchups.

    The one surprise is Jack White’s minutes have declined. He has not topped 20 minutes since the January 22nd game vs. Pitt. (More on Jack in the shooting section).

    And then there is Jordan Goldwire, who was so key in the defensive pressure that allowed Duke to beat Louisville. Jordan only played 4 minutes against NC State, but he was out there in a somewhat competitive game, which has not been the case for most of the ACC season. If Jordan is even getting 3-5 minutes per game against significant opponents, then it means K is actually playing 9 different guys somewhat regularly (even if "regularly" means less than 7 minutes per game). That would be pretty different from most past seasons.

    The other thing to monitor is Zion’s foul trouble. That can open up minutes (not in a good way!). Zion fouled out vs Texas Tech and Virginia and sat for stretches vs NCSU and Louisville. Opponents seem to be sitting on his spin move on drives and moving their feet to draw the charge or catch him losing his handle. Bears watching.

    Lastly, we should all be on the lookout to see whether the "freshman wall" impacts the team. There isn't a single player on the roster, even the upperclassmen who get time, who has played anywhere close to these kind of minutes in a season. Typically, freshmen (or upperclassmen taking on a larger role) suffer a slump around the middle of January as they figure out how to get their second wind. Strangely, this Duke team actually seems to be playing better and better as the season moves along. Here's hoping we are now past the point where cumulative season fatigue is an issue for this club.

    You Cant Handle The Truth – aka 3-Point Shooting
    Since going 4-6 vs Clemson, Jack White is 1-24 from the bonusphere. Cam had a 4 game stretch where he hit at least 4 three’s. Then he followed that up going 1-7 vs. State.

    The team is shooting .313 on the season which ranks #316 in the country. We have no idea if this is sustainable or not. Duke won the title in 2010 with extended slumps from Singler and Scheyer. But that team still hit .385 for the season, so it wasn’t all that bad.

    Coach Scheyer famously said in the wake of the win at UVA that this club is a really good shooting team in practice. We certainly hope his expectations of stronger outside shooting come to pass. We get giddy thinking about what the rest of the season would be like if Duke is really a 35% 3-point shooting team and spend the next 2 months bringing their average up to where it belongs.

    Highway to the Danger Zone – aka Halfcourt Offense/Offense vs. Zone D
    A lot of opponents are throwing zone at Duke to prevent drives and dare them to chuck 3’s. They are also working pretty hard to keep Zion and RJ out of the high post in those sets.

    In the Louisville game, the guys were clanking shots off the rim for a solid 30 minutes. It was painful, especially with those loud, hard rims at Yum! But then the offense started feeding off the defense, the game sped up, and Duke scored 35 in the final ten minutes.

    The 3-ball is a major limiting factor for this year’s team. It can really bog down the offense vs. mature defensive opponents. But our defense is so good that we can score before the halfcourt D gets set. So our best counter to the zone has been to speed the game, attack the primary ballhandler, attack the passing lanes and get transition buckets.

    The game during this phase that will really test Duke's patience is at Syracuse. The Orange are famous for that zone that keeps you away from the lane. Last time, minus Tre, Duke chucked up 43 3-point attempts as we sorta gave up trying to get to the hoop.
    There are certainly some efficiencies to be found on offense, but is it more important for this team to play loose and get into a groove than anything?

    Mad Max: Fury Road – aka Transition D/Defensive Pressure
    Holy moly – the Louisville ending was like pitching a perfect game for a solid ten minutes of game action. We’ve seen this team play downhill many times already. Everyone plays D, everyone has length, quickness, and can overwhelm.

    We are #4 in Adjusted D on KenPom. The last four games, we’ve allowed 2 or fewer fast break points in three of the last four games (h/t Kedsy). Our defensive rebounding % has been 85.7%, 73.7%, 54.8% (UVA), 82.9% and 73.3% the last five games (Kedsy again). Except for the UVA clunker (still won by 10) that is phenomenal!

    Our opponents Assist:Turnover ratio is 0.78. The guys are #1 in the country at 14.1% steal percentage. They are #2 in block percentage at 17.3%. Combined, that is 31.4%. Put another way, one out of every three defensive possessions end with Duke racing the other way from a steal or a blocked shot. We don’t even know how to wrap our heads around this information. We are gambling a lot on D and coming up with the ball. This section read like a senior superlative section of the valedictorian.

    Almost Famous – aka The hype around this team is insane
    We have a lot of years of watching Duke basketball and it is hard to recall a team surrounded by this much hype. The 1992 defending national champs probably come the closest, but that was before the internet and social media changed communications and was before the "DaNaNa, DaNaNa" of Sportscenter became a cultural icon. I mean, we are legitimately tracking how many times a Duke play shows up among the ten biggest plays of the day on the top sports broadcast in the world and it is not at all uncommon for 2 or 3 Duke plays to make the cut!

    Duke games have become must see, and must attend, events. NBA stars are flying in to watch. President Obama is coming to a game! A friend emailed Jason to ask if Oprah would be next.

    It is partially because this feels like the best Duke team in a while, and Duke is the biggest name in college basketball, but the real reason is four letters from Spartanburg, Z-I-O-N.

    It is remarkable that these guys have remained so humble thus far. They say all the right things in interviews and genuinely seem to like each other and enjoy playing together. At this point, it is hard to imagine anything changes in that regard, but hype, fame, and jealousy have been known to poison many a relationship. Here's hoping we don't end up like the Beatles.

    Go Duke!
    Last edited by JasonEvans; 02-20-2019 at 06:39 AM.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    In case it was not clear, Super and I wrote this together. I did all the good stuff and whatever parts you think are lame are by him
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Greenville, SC
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    In case it was not clear, Super and I wrote this together. I did all the good stuff and whatever parts you think are lame are by him
    Nice writeup. I love whimsy.


    Camion (My ability is exceeded only by my modesty. )

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Atlanta 'burbs
    I object to the title of this thread! The only time unc and # 1 could be used together is in a thread one about cheating.

    Other than that, thanks.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington DC
    Quote Originally Posted by TruBlu View Post
    I object to the title of this thread! The only time unc and # 1 could be used together is in a thread one about cheating.

    Other than that, thanks.
    #1 in fake classes!

    I object to having Unc twice within 2.5 weeks and State only once. Anyone have Swofford's email?

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh
    Quote Originally Posted by superdave View Post
    #1 in fake classes!

    I object to having Unc twice within 2.5 weeks and State only once. Anyone have Swofford's email?
    iknewtoo@acc/cheats.org

    (not a real link)
    [redacted] them and the horses they rode in on.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Baltimore
    Quote Originally Posted by superdave View Post
    A Star Is Born - aka Introduction to Phase V
    Duke has won nine straight since the loss to Cuse. Phase V is the stretch run to earn a double bye in the ACC Tournament and not only a 1-seed in the NCAA’s but the overall 1-seed with a claim to the East Regional (Columbia SC first weekend, Washington DC second).

    Since Jason Evans is a movie fanatic, we’re aiming for an Oscar themed Phase writeup. If you don’t like it, well, that’s just, like, your opinion, man.

    The Fault In Our Stars – aka Please let our players stay Healthy
    This section does not need to be long. Duke is simply not a deep enough team to absorb an injury and not take a step back. We saw in the first Syracuse game how losing Tre left the team somewhat flummoxed on offense against that zone. The truly unique nature of our four freshmen make them irreplaceable. Cross your fingers, toes, and any other appendage you can cross that we don't have to deal with any injuries any more this season.

    To The Gauntlet and Beyond – aka The Schedule
    ESPN's BPI says that Duke's 6 game stretch from @Virginia through @Va Tech is the toughest six game stretch of any team in the country. Wrap your head around that for a second. 6 straight games against tournament teams, 4 of which are on the road. Bart Torvik's T-rank page has the odds of winning every individual game on his site and if you multiply it out, T-rank says Duke has just a 7.4% chance of making it through the 6 game stretch unbeaten. It is a gauntlet and then some...

    ...And halfway through it Duke is 3-0 with arguably the two toughest games (@UVa and @Lou) in the rear-view mirror. Now, T-rank still only gives Duke a 43.9% chance of finishing out the Gauntlet unblemished, but this team sure looks like it is capable of remarkable stuff.

    Once the Gauntlet is over, things ease up... a lot. We get a pair of home games with Miami and Wake, two teams who are going nowhere. The team has been prone to lack of focus at times this season, though they usually are able to turn it on in the second half and find victory (often by crazy margins). Could a let up following the Gauntlet lead to a head scratching loss to Wake or (more likely) Miami?

    Then the regular season (and this phase) concludes with the Carolina rematch. No worries about a lack of focus there.

    No Country For Old Men – aka As the Rotation Tightens
    Tre Jones went the full 40 in each of our last three games. Alex O’Connell had a DNP then 6 then 4 minutes. It’s that time of year, DBR! Bolden and DeLaurier still seem to be in a semi-platoon situation depending on matchups.

    The one surprise is Jack White’s minutes have declined. He has not topped 20 minutes since the January 22nd game vs. Pitt. (More on Jack in the shooting section).

    And then there is Jordan Goldwire, who was so key in the defensive pressure that allowed Duke to beat Louisville. Jordan only played 4 minutes against NC State, but he was out there in a somewhat competitive game, which has not been the case for most of the ACC season. If Jordan is even getting 3-5 minutes per game against significant opponents, then it means K is actually playing 9 different guys somewhat regularly (even if "regularly" means less than 7 minutes per game). That would be pretty different from most past seasons.

    The other thing to monitor is Zion’s foul trouble. That can open up minutes (not in a good way!). Zion fouled out vs Texas Tech and Virginia and sat for stretches vs NCSU and Louisville. Opponents seem to be sitting on his spin move on drives and moving their feet to draw the charge or catch him losing his handle. Bears watching.

    Lastly, we should all be on the lookout to see whether the "freshman wall" impacts the team. There isn't a single player on the roster, even the upperclassmen who get time, who has played anywhere close to these kind of minutes in a season. Typically, freshmen (or upperclassmen taking on a larger role) suffer a slump around the middle of January as they figure out how to get their second wind. Strangely, this Duke team actually seems to be playing better and better as the season moves along. Here's hoping we are now past the point where cumulative season fatigue is an issue for this club.

    You Cant Handle The Truth – aka 3-Point Shooting
    Since going 4-6 vs Clemson, Jack White is 1-24 from the bonusphere. Cam had a 4 game stretch where he hit at least 4 three’s. Then he followed that up going 1-7 vs. State.

    The team is shooting .313 on the season which ranks #316 in the country. We have no idea if this is sustainable or not. Duke won the title in 2010 with extended slumps from Singler and Scheyer. But that team still hit .385 for the season, so it wasn’t all that bad.

    Coach Scheyer famously said in the wake of the win at UVA that this club is a really good shooting team in practice. We certainly hope his expectations of stronger outside shooting come to pass. We get giddy thinking about what the rest of the season would be like if Duke is really a 35% 3-point shooting team and spend the next 2 months bringing their average up to where it belongs.

    Highway to the Danger Zone – aka Halfcourt Offense/Offense vs. Zone D
    A lot of opponents are throwing zone at Duke to prevent drives and dare them to chuck 3’s. They are also working pretty hard to keep Zion and RJ out of the high post in those sets.

    In the Louisville game, the guys were clanking shots off the rim for a solid 30 minutes. It was painful, especially with those loud, hard rims at Yum! But then the offense started feeding off the defense, the game sped up, and Duke scored 35 in the final ten minutes.

    The 3-ball is a major limiting factor for this year’s team. It can really bog down the offense vs. mature defensive opponents. But our defense is so good that we can score before the halfcourt D gets set. So our best counter to the zone has been to speed the game, attack the primary ballhandler, attack the passing lanes and get transition buckets.

    The game during this phase that will really test Duke's patience is at Syracuse. The Orange are famous for that zone that keeps you away from the lane. Last time, minus Tre, Duke chucked up 43 3-point attempts as we sorta gave up trying to get to the hoop.
    There are certainly some efficiencies to be found on offense, but is it more important for this team to play loose and get into a groove than anything?

    Mad Max: Fury Road – aka Transition D/Defensive Pressure
    Holy moly – the Louisville ending was like pitching a perfect game for a solid ten minutes of game action. We’ve seen this team play downhill many times already. Everyone plays D, everyone has length, quickness, and can overwhelm.

    We are #4 in Adjusted D on KenPom. The last four games, we’ve allowed 2 or fewer fast break points in three of the last four games (h/t Kedsy). Our defensive rebounding % has been 85.7%, 73.7%, 54.8% (UVA), 82.9% and 73.3% the last five games (Kedsy again). Except for the UVA clunker (still won by 10) that is phenomenal!

    Our opponents Assist:Turnover ratio is 0.78. The guys are #1 in the country at 14.1% steal percentage. They are #2 in block percentage at 17.3%. Combined, that is 31.4%. Put another way, one out of every three defensive possessions end with Duke racing the other way from a steal or a blocked shot. We don’t even know how to wrap our heads around this information. We are gambling a lot on D and coming up with the ball. This section read like a senior superlative section of the valedictorian.

    Almost Famous – aka The hype around this team is insane
    We have a lot of years of watching Duke basketball and it is hard to recall a team surrounded by this much hype. The 1992 defending national champs probably come the closest, but that was before the internet and social media changed communications and was before the "DaNaNa, DaNaNa" of Sportscenter became a cultural icon. I mean, we are legitimately tracking how many times a Duke play shows up among the ten biggest plays of the day on the top sports broadcast in the world and it is not at all uncommon for 2 or 3 Duke plays to make the cut!

    Duke games have become must see, and must attend, events. NBA stars are flying in to watch. President Obama is coming to a game! A friend emailed Jason to ask if Oprah would be next.

    It is partially because this feels like the best Duke team in a while, and Duke is the biggest name in college basketball, but the real reason is four letters from Spartanburg, Z-I-O-N.

    It is remarkable that these guys have remained so humble thus far. They say all the right things in interviews and genuinely seem to like each other and enjoy playing together. At this point, it is hard to imagine anything changes in that regard, but hype, fame, and jealousy have been known to poison many a relationship. Here's hoping we don't end up like the Beatles.

    Go Duke!
    Great writeup! Don't forget we were also missing Cam in the Syracuse game.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    New Orleans, Louisiana
    Quote Originally Posted by TruBlu View Post
    I object to the title of this thread! The only time unc and # 1 could be used together is in a thread one about cheating.
    I’m okay with it. I read “UNC#1” and “UNC#2” as potty options.

    Still, in the phase reports of the past, we used Roman numerals, which also works with the movie theme.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by superdave View Post
    The one surprise is Jack White’s minutes have declined. He has not topped 20 minutes since the January 22nd game vs. Pitt.
    Given Jack's play, since January 22nd, is that truly surprising? History repeats and the rotation was going to tighten.

    Where's kAzE and Troublemaker? I doubt they approve of less minutes.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Nashville
    The rotation has thinned a little, but in comparison to other seasons, I don't think the staff wants it to stay this way. I think they would love it if Jack got back into his early-season form and could spend a few more minutes on the court. That goes for Jav, too, who is also working his way out of a funk. Both of those guys have A LOT to offer a championship squad. We're going to need them.
    Who needs a moral victory when you can have a real one?

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    In case it was not clear, Super and I wrote this together. I did all the good stuff and whatever parts you think are lame are by him
    Credit where credit is due... the "No Country for Old Men" title on the rotation section was Super's idea... and it is a brilliant one!
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  12. #12
    Good job, guys. I like the movie titles.

    Quote Originally Posted by superdave View Post
    And then there is Jordan Goldwire, who was so key in the defensive pressure that allowed Duke to beat Louisville. Jordan only played 4 minutes against NC State, but he was out there in a somewhat competitive game, which has not been the case for most of the ACC season. If Jordan is even getting 3-5 minutes per game against significant opponents, then it means K is actually playing 9 different guys somewhat regularly (even if "regularly" means less than 7 minutes per game). That would be pretty different from most past seasons.
    I'm not sure how different it is. For example, last season we played 13 ACC regular season games with margins under 20 points. In those games our player with the 8th-most minutes (in that game; not always the same player) averaged 4.5 mpg and the 9th averaged 2.3 mpg. This season, we've played 9 ACC games with margins under 20 points. In those games our player with the 8th-most minutes averaged 6.0 mpg and the 9th averaged 2.7 mpg. And those numbers are skewed by the Clemson game which was a major rout that ended at 19 points because the bench guys were severely outplayed. Not counting that game, our 8th-most-minutes guy has averaged 4.9 mpg and our 9th-most-minutes guy has averaged 2.1 mpg. Basically the same as last year. I don't feel like doing this analysis for any previous seasons, but my guess is this season is not "pretty different" (or really different at all) in this regard.

    But I agree with most everything else you said.

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Earth
    It's approaching the most wonderful time of the year again. I offer the only website I can find that will let you figure out conference tournament seeds:

    http://bball.notnothing.net/acc.php?sport=mbb

    Of interest--Duke seems to have locked up a 8 seed at least. There is one bracket possibility where #1 Duke gets UNC as a #9 and UVA as a #5.

  14. #14
    I have enjoyed watching this team grow- but this is a very tough stretch of games moving forward. Duke has shown its weaknesses all season and at some point it might bite them. But the other thing this team has shown time and time again is fight- particularly second half fight. They do not like to lose and will fight to the end. Great teams and players have this characteristic. I have no idea how this will play out in March but it is good sign. Zion is an other-worldly talent and sometimes that can be enough to win it all but the three point shooting and foul trouble remains a huge concern. The season may hinge on consecutive good games from Cam Reddish come tourney time. He seems to play better with pressure. Tonight is a big test- but by no means the season. A lot of difficult games including 1 or 2 more against UNC or another against UVA. The next two away games will be very challenging. Will Duke be charging into the post season? We shall see.
    dukelifer

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by dukelifer View Post
    I have enjoyed watching this team grow- but this is a very tough stretch of games moving forward. Duke has shown its weaknesses all season and at some point it might bite them. But the other thing this team has shown time and time again is fight- particularly second half fight. They do not like to lose and will fight to the end. Great teams and players have this characteristic. I have no idea how this will play out in March but it is good sign. Zion is an other-worldly talent and sometimes that can be enough to win it all but the three point shooting and foul trouble remains a huge concern. The season may hinge on consecutive good games from Cam Reddish come tourney time. He seems to play better with pressure. Tonight is a big test- but by no means the season. A lot of difficult games including 1 or 2 more against UNC or another against UVA. The next two away games will be very challenging. Will Duke be charging into the post season? We shall see.
    Actually, we're hitting the easier part of the schedule. We just got through the tougher part (at UVa and at Louisville). The next several games are ones we are comfortably favored before wrapping up the regular season in a 50/50ish game against UNC.

    Now, obviously we could lose any of the next 3 games. But it would be a fairly surprising outcome, as I'd venture we should be at least 2 to 1 favorites in all 3 games (and more like 3 to 1 tonight and at Syracuse).

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by superdave View Post
    The guys are #1 in the country at 14.1% steal percentage. They are #2 in block percentage at 17.3%. Combined, that is 31.4%. Put another way, one out of every three defensive possessions end with Duke racing the other way from a steal or a blocked shot. We don’t even know how to wrap our heads around this information. We are gambling a lot on D and coming up with the ball. This section read like a senior superlative section of the valedictorian.

    Go Duke!
    First of all, just fantastic stuff. Encore! Encore! Great job to SuperDave and Jason Evans on this one.

    Second, I want to ask a question about the stats above. Is block rate only recorded when a team ends a possession in a block? Because a block does not always result in the end of the possession for the offensive team. The ball may fly out into stands and result in one more chance at a shot. That being the case, it seems more likely that Duke is ending closer to 30% or 25% of its defensive possessions with a block or steak, which is still really, really, ridiculously impressive.

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Actually, we're hitting the easier part of the schedule. We just got through the tougher part (at UVa and at Louisville). The next several games are ones we are comfortably favored before wrapping up the regular season in a 50/50ish game against UNC.

    Now, obviously we could lose any of the next 3 games. But it would be a fairly surprising outcome, as I'd venture we should be at least 2 to 1 favorites in all 3 games (and more like 3 to 1 tonight and at Syracuse).
    Percent chance of Duke winning each remaining game, according to T-rank:
    UNC - 81% (4-to-1)
    @Syr - 81% (4-to-1)
    @VT - 67% (2-to-1)
    Miami - 96% (19-out-of-20)
    Wake - 99% (99-out-of-100)
    @UNC - 54% (50-50)
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  18. #18
    One of my pet peeves in the OAD era has been the lack of fundamentals with regard to defensive rebounding. Mr. Sumner’s article on the home page today quotes Coach K as saying that there’s no secret recipe to rebounding and that there’s no set strategy—the ball’s up there, go and get it. I always thought there was more to it, like positioning and boxing out. As good a rebounding team as we are, our freshmen have a ways to go. White is the best on the team, DeLaurier and Bolden and Reddish are pretty good, but Barrett and Zion rarely box out. Obviously, Zion’s athleticism overcomes a lot of this. Virginia has always done a great job with this. Perhaps it’s just something I’ll have to learn to live with. After all, does anyone box out in the NBA?

  19. #19
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    Second, I want to ask a question about the stats above. Is block rate only recorded when a team ends a possession in a block? Because a block does not always result in the end of the possession for the offensive team. The ball may fly out into stands and result in one more chance at a shot. That being the case, it seems more likely that Duke is ending closer to 30% or 25% of its defensive possessions with a block or steak, which is still really, really, ridiculously impressive.
    You are correct. Block percentage is just how often you block a shot. A fair percentage of blocks go out of bounds or are rebounded by the offensive team, so it is not necessarily the end of a possession. I was using a bit of shorthand in that line and may have over-inflated how often we end a possession with a block.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    First of all, just fantastic stuff. Encore! Encore! Great job to SuperDave and Jason Evans on this one.

    Second, I want to ask a question about the stats above. Is block rate only recorded when a team ends a possession in a block? Because a block does not always result in the end of the possession for the offensive team. The ball may fly out into stands and result in one more chance at a shot. That being the case, it seems more likely that Duke is ending closer to 30% or 25% of its defensive possessions with a block or steak, which is still really, really, ridiculously impressive.
    Block rate is the percentage of field goal attempts resulting in a block. For the NBA at least, they calculate it based only on 2pt attempts. I assume they do the same in college. So it is not possession-based.

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