MBB: Duke vs. unc (2/20, 9 p.m., ESPN) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[DavidBenAkiva]

Round 1 of at least 2 in the most famous rivalry in college basketball tips off on Wednesday night at 9:00 p.m. All eyes in the world of basketball will be focused on Cameron Indoor Stadium. There will be no NBA games that night. There will be no other Top 10 matchups in college ball. This is the game, possibly the biggest of the year.

Duke will find itself an almost unanimous #1 team in the nation in the polls while UNC has done about as expected as a Top 10 team featuring a mix of seniors, freshmen, and relatively unremarkable sophomores and juniors. North Carolina, as has been the case under Roy Williams in his tenure in Chapel Hill, loves to play an up-tempo game and has his players crash the glass. The Tar Heels are playing the 4th fastest tempo among college teams so far this year. UNC is good, although not historically so, on the offensive glass. They are a better defensive rebounding team this year.

Unlike UNC teams of recent vintage, this roster does not feature much in the way of an interior presence. Luke Maye and Garrison Brooks start the game in the frontcourt. Maye is particularly gifted as a defensive rebounder while Brooks is better on the offensive glass. Neither offer much in the way of rim protection, an area where UNC struggles overall this season.

Where UNC excels this year is on the 3-point line, where the team can space the floor with as many as 4 shooters at a time. Maye, Cam Johnson, Coby White, and Kenny Williams all can and do take a number of 3's. Johnson, in particular, has been scorching the nets this year to the tune of 47.9% shooting from behind the arc. Maye and Williams are capable shooters, although they have regressed relative to last season. White has been a pleasant surprise at point guard for the Tar Heels. He came out of high school as the all-time leading scorer in North Carolina history and has picked that up in college after a few slow games.

Off the bench are juniors Brandon Robinson, a 6'4" shooting guard that can score from deep, Seventh Woods, a 6'2" point guard that has had a disappointing college career, freshman 6'6" Nassir Little and 6'7" Leaky Black. The latter has been pretty good in limited minutes. The former has had a bit of rough go of it for a player that many projected to be the best on the team before the season started. Little sprained his ankle against Virginia on Monday but played 11 minutes against Wake Forest on Saturday. He looks like he will be playing on Wednesday against Duke, although it is not clear that he is 100% healthy at the moment.

This UNC team is prone to turnovers and mistakes at times. Although they are also prone to shooting lights out at times, too. It's a bit of a hit-and-miss squad. The matchups in this game are going to be very interesting. Duke has superior athleticism at almost every position. And the Blue Devils are killers in transition. Playing a fast-tempo game would seem to favor the home team. Does Roy have a wrinkle to his normal defense up his sleeve for this game against Duke?

Looking at the matchups, Duke will be favored when R.J. and Zion are going to the rim. If they can force Coby White into making a few too many mistakes, too, they will have a further advantage. Duke will have a big advantage at the rim on defense, where they can bring multiple defenders to block shots. UNC, on the other hand, has a clear advantage on the offensive glass and from behind the arc. If Duke can negate one of those two advantages, I think the home team takes the game. Duke is a very good defensive three-point shooting team, after all. This should be an incredibly hyped and fun game to watch. GTHC and Let's Go Duke!

[chris13]

Leaky Black has been out since January 29 when he suffered a high ankle sprain against GaTech. I would be surprised if he plays Wednesday. The one player on UNC's roster who can provide some rim protection, Sterling Manley, is also likely to be out. Finally Nassir Little missed most of the UVA game with a sprained ankle and the 2nd half against Wake although that seemed to be a precaution.

Agree that Coby White has been a pleasant surprise, and that along with Cam Johnson's shooting have really made the difference for UNC. Hard to imagine them beating Duke in Cameron. I can't imagine Roy is going to try and slow tempo.

[dukelifer]

Round 1 of at least 2 in the most famous rivalry in college basketball tips off on Wednesday night at 9:00 p.m. All eyes in the world of basketball will be focused on Cameron Indoor Stadium. There will be no NBA games that night. There will be no other Top 10 matchups in college ball. This is the game, possibly the biggest of the year.

Duke will find itself an almost unanimous #1 team in the nation in the polls while UNC has done about as expected as a Top 10 team featuring a mix of seniors, freshmen, and relatively unremarkable sophomores and juniors. North Carolina, as has been the case under Roy Williams in his tenure in Chapel Hill, loves to play an up-tempo game and has his players crash the glass. The Tar Heels are playing the 4th fastest tempo among college teams so far this year. UNC is good, although not historically so, on the offensive glass. They are a better defensive rebounding team this year.

Unlike UNC teams of recent vintage, this roster does not feature much in the way of an interior presence. Luke Maye and Garrison Brooks start the game in the frontcourt. Maye is particularly gifted as a defensive rebounder while Brooks is better on the offensive glass. Neither offer much in the way of rim protection, an area where UNC struggles overall this season.

Where UNC excels this year is on the 3-point line, where the team can space the floor with as many as 4 shooters at a time. Maye, Cam Johnson, Coby White, and Kenny Williams all can and do take a number of 3's. Johnson, in particular, has been scorching the nets this year to the tune of 47.9% shooting from behind the arc. Maye and Williams are capable shooters, although they have regressed relative to last season. White has been a pleasant surprise at point guard for the Tar Heels. He came out of high school as the all-time leading scorer in North Carolina history and has picked that up in college after a few slow games.

Off the bench are juniors Brandon Robinson, a 6'4" shooting guard that can score from deep, Seventh Woods, a 6'2" point guard that has had a disappointing college career, freshman 6'6" Nassir Little and 6'7" Leaky Black. The latter has been pretty good in limited minutes. The former has had a bit of rough go of it for a player that many projected to be the best on the team before the season started. Little sprained his ankle against Virginia on Monday but played 11 minutes against Wake Forest on Saturday. He looks like he will be playing on Wednesday against Duke, although it is not clear that he is 100% healthy at the moment.

This UNC team is prone to turnovers and mistakes at times. Although they are also prone to shooting lights out at times, too. It's a bit of a hit-and-miss squad. The matchups in this game are going to be very interesting. Duke has superior athleticism at almost every position. And the Blue Devils are killers in transition. Playing a fast-tempo game would seem to favor the home team. Does Roy have a wrinkle to his normal defense up his sleeve for this game against Duke?

Looking at the matchups, Duke will be favored when R.J. and Zion are going to the rim. If they can force Coby White into making a few too many mistakes, too, they will have a further advantage. Duke will have a big advantage at the rim on defense, where they can bring multiple defenders to block shots. UNC, on the other hand, has a clear advantage on the offensive glass and from behind the arc. If Duke can negate one of those two advantages, I think the home team takes the game. Duke is a very good defensive three-point shooting team, after all. This should be an incredibly hyped and fun game to watch. GTHC and Let's Go Duke!

This will be an interesting game for sure. UNC can shoot the ball- no question. They have a bunch of guys that can hit from deep with ease. White is a handful and will challenge the D and Jones. Duke wins this game if they can turn UNC over a lot and get out in transition for easy buckets. UNC will go fast and push the pace and test the transition D which has been just average for Duke. If Duke takes away the three as they did against State- UNC is pretty adept at getting the ball to cutters. So it will be a chess match. I think UNC is a tough matchup for Duke but they have shown themselves vulnerable to athletic teams. Duke will need to be intense and focused on D and attack on O. Duke will need Reddish to have one of his better games- particularly on D. Emotional rivalry games are always hard to predict - but this will be a close game decided at the end. I will be happy if Duke wins easily but I am not expecting it. I worry about foul trouble on Duke. UNC is deeper and has fairly interchangeable bench players. Any kind of win is welcome. The Duke team is hitting a bit of a wall so regardless of the outcome on Wed- the next two games will not be easy.

[NYBri]

This belongs in the status check, but...

9F!!!!!!!!

[roywhite]

Cam vs Cam?

Cameron Johnson has some excellent shooting numbers -- 51.7% FG, 47.9% 3-pt, and 78.9% FT
He's been a difficult matchup for many teams, but our Cam has the length and defensive ability to neutralize Johnson IMO

Tre vs Coby White is another interesting matchup
Like most teams, the Heels will struggle to defend Zion, and that should be the difference in this game

Devils by 8 to 10 points

[mapei]

I think we're going to have to really step up our game - something we generally do in key contests - to win this one. I know that's an odd thing to say given our record and that the game is in Cameron, but I don't think we've played all that well lately, except for the closing 9 minutes against Louisville. We'll have to avoid foul trouble, defend the 3 well, and shoot the 3 much better than we did last night. UNC seems to be playing very well lately, notwithstanding their loss to Virginia.

[MChambers]

This belongs in the status check, but...

9F!!!!!!!!

Belongs in every thread!

[MChambers]

Cam vs Cam?

Cameron Johnson has some excellent shooting numbers -- 51.7% FG, 47.9% 3-pt, and 78.9% FT
He's been a difficult matchup for many teams, but our Cam has the length and defensive ability to neutralize Johnson IMO

Tre vs Coby White is another interesting matchup
Like most teams, the Heels will struggle to defend Zion, and that should be the difference in this game

Devils by 8 to 10 points

UVa put Hunter on White in the second half and the length bothered White. I wouldn’t be surprised if Cam ended up on White.

[AGDukesky]

UNC seems to be playing very well lately, notwithstanding their loss to Virginia.

And needed a late 3 to send the game to OT at home against Miami the game before. For some reason people always seem to give UNC a pass. In its last 3 games, UNC was lucky to win at home against a middling Miami team in OT, lost at home to a UVA team coming off a loss to Duke at home by 10 two days before and down a starter, and clobbered the worst team in the conference with a dead man walking coach. How is UNC looking any better than Duke?!

[Devilwin]

The way I see it, if the defense shows up, we hit some threes, we win. If not, it could be close and ugly. We need not just Cam but everyone to stand tall for this one.

[robed deity]

This kinda reminds me of a few years ago, only reversed. Duke has the better team, but if UNC shoots it and Duke doesn't, they could steal one.

But if Tre is able to harass White into some turnovers, that could really make it tough on them.

[CDu]

First of the two UNC games. Win this one and we are in the driver’s seat for the ACC title. Glad it is at home, I think.

UNC does a lot of the things that Roy Williams teams do well: namely, run the floor and rebound on both ends. They play the 4th fastest tempo in D1, and are a top-25 rebounding team on both the offensive and defensive glass. That second stat is really impressive as they are not a big team. On offense, they are a fantastic 3pt shooting team, but they turn it over a fair amount and they don’t draw fouls. It is a bit abnormal for a UNC team to shoot so many threes and to not draw fouls, but that is kind of the team they have. On defense, they congest the lane and rebound well, but that is about it.

Centers: The nominal center is Garrison Brooks (6’9”, 230lb sophomore). Brooks is an athletic, energy player who does the little things. He is good in the pick-and-roll game and can finish at the rim. He can also knock down the occasional 15-footer. But he can’t dribble and is mainly a tertiary offensive option. Still, he plays with high energy and effort and has a knack for the annoyingly successful play despite limited skill. In theory, Brooks is backed up by Sterling Manley (6’11”, 235lb sophomore). But Manley has missed over a month with a knee injury. UNC doesn’t give info on return timetables, so no idea if he will play. But when he has played he has been ineffective. Well, maybe that isn’t fair. He has blocked shots and has rebounded at an elite rate. But his offensive contributions have been awful. Brandon Huffman (6’10”, 250lb sophomore) is the emergency big. But if Manley doesn’t go, the Heels will typically just go smaller when Brooks is out.

Forwards: Luke Maye (6’8”, 240lb senior) is the starter at forward. Maye is the kind of story one would love if he wasn’t a Heel. A lightly-recruited, undersized and under athletic big, he has put in a ton of work to maximize his play at the college level. He is a strong kid, an elite defensive rebounder. He is also a terrific shooter, though he has struggled a bit this year. He can’t dribble at all, though, and on a team light on playmakers his offensive limitations have been somewhat exposed. He is sort of like a bigger, less bouncy Jack White. Maye will be overmatched if asked to defend anyone but Bolden/White/DeLaurier. I would expect us to try to get him iso’d on a freshman when possible. Behind, and sometimes alongside Maye is Nassir Little (6’6”, 220lb freshman). Little was a top-5 recruit who has elite physical tools and plays a high-energy style. And he has been really productive for UNC... when Roy has let him play. He averages 20.9 points and 9.4 rebounds per 40 minutes, but gets just 18.5 mpg because he doesn’t fit Roy’s system on the wing and Roy doesn’t like to play a small ball PF much (Little would be a nightmare as a college 4). He doesn’t handle the ball well and doesn’t shoot well, but he is ferocious on straight-line drives and finishing at the rim. Little sprained his ankle against UVa and played sparingly against Wake, so it remains to be seen how effective he will be on Wednesday. He isn’t the most polished player, but he might be the only Heel capable of contending with Zion. So let’s hope Roy continues to misuse his star prospect.

Wings: Cam Johnson (6’9”, 210lb senior grad transfer from Pitt) is the star on the wing. Johnson is the rare grad transfer who (a) did so with TWO years of eligibility left and (b) got to do so within conference. So, kudos to UNC for pulling that off. Johnson’s game is the 3-ball. He is an ELITE perimeter shooter. Like the others mentioned, Johnson doesn’t dribble. So he relies on others to create looks for him. But when he gets a lot, it frequently goes in. On defense, though, Johnson can be a liability at times. The other starter on the wing is Kenny Williams (6’4”, 185lb senior). Williams is another lower-tier recruit turned good for UNC. He is a good athlete and willing defender, and a better shooter than his numbers would indicate. He also has a knack for hitting loooong, contested 3s late in the shot clock. Williams gets a fair amount of “pass it on the perimeter” assists as well. Once again, though, the limitation for him is that he doesn’t handle the ball well. The third man on the wings is technically Little, but Little plays more of a forward role. So the next up is Brandon Robinson (6’4”, 170lb junior). Robinson is a string bean with decent athleticism but whose primary value is, you guessed it, his outside shot. And, you probably also guessed, he can’t handle the ball. The other option will be either Rechon “Leaky” Black (6’7”, 185lb freshman) or Andrew Platek (6’3”, 200lb sophomore). Black has missed several games with an ankle injury, and there has been no update on his availability. So who knows? If he plays, Black is a long, athletic shooting wing who can harass the passing lanes. Sort of a very poor man’s Reddish, if you will. If Black sits, Platek might fill in sparingly. And that would be a big edge to Duke, because Platek is not skilled or athletic enough to play at the ACC level.

Guards: Coby White (6’5”, 185lb freshman) is the guy that carries this UNC team. He is one of only two capable ballhandlers, and is also their best scorer. White isn’t really a PG, but can do it in a pinch. He is a terrific shooter and crafty ballhandler/driver. He is a threat to score from anywhere, and will need to be the focal point of our game plan. Make him struggle and force it into the hands of others, and good things can happen for us. The less White has the ball, the better. The only other guy who can dribble for UNC is Seventh Woods (6’2”, 185lb junior). Woods was an elite prospect as a freshman in high school, leading to an early UNC commit. But his game plateaued young, and he just has never put it together in college. Woods is a terrific athlete who just doesn’t have the b-ball IQ to make it work at his size. He can handle the ball okay, and can deliver highlight-reel dunks. But he is a turnover machine and a minimal offensive weapon. He does generate assists, but he feels kind of like an empty calorie guy out there. Still, White serves his role as the backup point whenever White needs a break.

We are way more athletic than UNC at nearly every spot. But UNC is more experienced and a far better shooting team. If they dominate the glass (which they can do) and/or hit their 3s, we can be in trouble. If we can limit their transition buckets, force guys other than White to make plays, and keep them from killing us on the boards, we should fare well. But it won’t be easy.

[DukieInKansas]

Hopefully, all of the former players that made it to the game yesterday were able to share valuable insight about the rivalry. The Brotherhood must stand strong.

[CarmenWallaceWade]

I seem to remember last year in one of these matchups (I believe the acc tourney) where unc stacked the lane to stop Bagley, Carter and co. It forced us to shoot threes which we did not do well and ultimately lost. Given how poor our 3 pt shooting is this year I would not be surprised to see a similar game plan from them.

[Kedsy]

UNC, on the other hand, has a clear advantage on the offensive glass and from behind the arc.

For what it's worth, UNC is #26 in the country in offensive rebounding percentage. Duke is #6.

UNC will go fast and push the pace and test the transition D which has been just average for Duke.

Duke has allowed two (2) or fewer fast break points (not baskets, points) in three of our last four games.

[SavDukeGrad]

Great scouting report as always, CDu! The potential Zion vs Little matchup should be really interesting!

I have ventured over to IC several times this season. Although I find almost all of their comments completely delusional, I was curious about 2 things: how they viewed Roy’ s usage of Little and how incensed they were about the Duke/Zion hype this year.

At the very beginning of the season, before they realized the full “Zion effect” on college b-ball this year, they were adamant that Little was a better player and would own Zion head to head. Their reasoning was that Little had always outplayed him in the past, especially in the McDonalds AA game. They dismissed Roy’s usage of Little - Little came to Carolina because he wanted to be a part of some thing bigger than himself, he was a team player and didn’t mind coming off the bench, he was there to learn under Roy not audition for the NBA, he wasn’t selfish, the Carolina way... (pardon me if I go throw up now)

Now that the season has unfolded, I don’t want to even repeat most of their delusional comments. But there are 2 major themes: Roy has whiffed on all of these top recruits because he refuses to pay them, and they are so happy that that their school is morally superior to all others, especially Duke. Which I find really fascinatingly delusional, since Little was the one player that was mentioned in the FBI report, and likely only fell in their lap because of it.

All of this is to say: I hope more than ever we really take it to them Wednesday night. And Zion dominates Little and their entire team. And all of our guys have great games and there is no doubt who is the better team. Go Duke!

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Great scouting report as always, CDu! The potential Zion vs Little matchup should be really interesting!

I have ventured over to IC several times this season. Although I find almost all of their comments completely delusional, I was curious about 2 things: how they viewed Roy’ s usage of Little and how incensed they were about the Duke/Zion hype this year.

At the very beginning of the season, before they realized the full “Zion effect” on college b-ball this year, they were adamant that Little was a better player and would own Zion head to head. Their reasoning was that Little had always outplayed him in the past, especially in the McDonalds AA game. They dismissed Roy’s usage of Little - Little came to Carolina because he wanted to be a part of some thing bigger than himself, he was a team player and didn’t mind coming off the bench, he was there to learn under Roy not audition for the NBA, he wasn’t selfish, the Carolina way... (pardon me if I go throw up now)

Now that the season has unfolded, I don’t want to even repeat most of their delusional comments. But there are 2 major themes: Roy has whiffed on all of these top recruits because he refuses to pay them, and they are so happy that that their school is morally superior to all others, especially Duke. Which I find really fascinatingly delusional, since Little was the one player that was mentioned in the FBI report, and likely only fell in their lap because of it.

All of this is to say: I hope more than ever we really take it to them Wednesday night. And Zion dominates Little and their entire team. And all of our guys have great games and there is no doubt who is the better team. Go Duke!

Thanks for the update...couple questions:

Are they still on the "Duke paid Zion" business?
Do any of them think Little is better than Zion?

[Kedsy]

I think we're going to have to really step up our game - something we generally do in key contests - to win this one. I know that's an odd thing to say given our record and that the game is in Cameron, but I don't think we've played all that well lately, except for the closing 9 minutes against Louisville. We'll have to avoid foul trouble, defend the 3 well, and shoot the 3 much better than we did last night. UNC seems to be playing very well lately, notwithstanding their loss to Virginia.

I know someone else already addressed this, but here are each team's last three games (what constitutes "lately" is perhaps subjective, but three games seems about right to me; rankings are from KenPom):

Duke:
10-point road win over #2 Virginia;
2-point road win over #14 Louisville;
16-point home win over #35 NC State.

UNC:
OT home win over #71 Miami;
8-point home loss to #2 Virginia;
38-point road win over #187 Wake Forest.

Impossible for me to look at the above and not say Duke is playing way better than UNC lately.

[SavDukeGrad]

Thanks for the update...couple questions:

Are they still on the "Duke paid Zion" business?
Do any of them think Little is better than Zion?

As of my last visit:

1. Yes, more than ever. There seems to be a direct correlation - the better he plays, the more convinced they are that this definitely happened.

2. That narrative has now changed, since Little needs at least one more year at Carolina before he will be ready for the NBA. One of their posters hilariously (and truthfully) said something like “now is the time of year we start throwing all of our own players under the bus, hoping they will come back for another year”! You just can’t make this stuff up!

[HereBeforeCoachK]

As of my last visit:

1. Yes, more than ever. There seems to be a direct correlation - the better he plays, the more convinced they are that this definitely happened.

2. That narrative has now changed, since Little needs at least one more year at Carolina before he will be ready for the NBA. One of their posters hilariously (and truthfully) said something like “now is the time of year we start throwing all of our own players under the bus, hoping they will come back for another year”! You just can’t make this stuff up!

Amazing. I've always loathed Carolina fan nation much more than the players/coaches over there...by far. This is why. Only idiotic fans can be obsessed over item #1. I assure you Roy nor any of the players have given that stupid notion a second thought.

As a note, my dad was a physician, a devout Christian, a UNC Med School grad, and a man of honor....unless the Cheats were on TV. Then he lost it all for two hours. Astounding what being a Cheats fan does to a person.