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  1. #41

    Greatest comeback in last 10 minutes

    The ACC network game on free TV tonight. Announcers said our win last night represented the largest comeback to win in last 10 minutes in NCAA history. Had not heard that before.

  2. #42
    Quote Originally Posted by arnie View Post
    The ACC network game on free TV tonight. Announcers said our win last night represented the largest comeback to win in last 10 minutes in NCAA history. Had not heard that before.
    This article has some cool stats.

    https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball...ver-louisville

  3. #43
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Honolulu
    Quote Originally Posted by mr. synellinden View Post
    Also worth noting that we were down 19 (62-43) about 6:30 left. I wonder if we were a longer shot to win at that point or when it was 59-36.
    There's been a lot of win probability discussion already, but here's a visual of what it looked like according to ESPN's WP tracking doodle:
    59-36.JPG 62-43.JPG
    Who knew math could be so beautiful?

  4. #44
    Quote Originally Posted by JetpackJesus View Post
    There's been a lot of win probability discussion already, but here's a visual of what it looked like according to ESPN's WP tracking doodle:
    59-36.JPG 62-43.JPG
    Who knew math could be so beautiful?
    At first glance, it looks like we were bottomed out at 9:58 and still bottomed out at 6:30....

  5. #45
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Santa Clara, CA
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post

    Bobby Jones had a game-winner in the first 1974 game.
    Ugh. I forgot about that. It was before my time, but I do remember hearing about it now.

    9F
    9F
    9F
    I will never talk about That Game. GTHC.

  6. #46
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Honolulu
    Quote Originally Posted by HereBeforeCoachK View Post
    At first glance, it looks like we were bottomed out at 9:58 and still bottomed out at 6:30...
    Pretty much. I went back and looked at it again. L'ville's win probability was at least 99.0% in the second half from the 11:27 mark to the 6:22 mark, and 99.0 doesn't look too different from 99.9. Their win probability didn't fall below 90% until the ~4:13 mark. The last time the graph shows L'ville with a >50% win probability was at 1:10 mark (51.9%). At 0:45 mark, Duke had a 53.5% win probability. That was the first time Duke had a >50% win probability since 3:10 mark of the first half when it was 28-26 L'ville.

  7. #47
    Not saying it's #1 (or 2 or 3), but the 2003 ACC Championship against NC State we were down by 15 with about 10 minutes left before it turned into the JJ Redick show... it's in my top 10

    The 2011 Seth / Nolan Smith comeback against UNC was (at the time) the biggest halftime deficit we'd erased in a half-century... probably deservedly eclipsed by the Austin Rivers game the next year but it was special in and of itself.

  8. #48
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    New Orleans, Louisiana
    All of you are completely wrong. Coach K's best comeback was "F--- you, Dean!"

    (I assume we are including verbal comebacks.)

    (I think that was the 1989 ACC Tournament final. Please correct me if it was not.)

  9. #49
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Honolulu
    Quote Originally Posted by brevity View Post
    All of you are completely wrong. Coach K's best comeback was "F--- you, Dean!"

    (I assume we are including verbal comebacks.)

    (I think that was the 1989 ACC Tournament final. Please correct me if it was not.)
    If you're wrong, I don't want you to be right.

  10. #50
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by House P View Post
    Here is what KenPom says about calculating in-game win probabilities. I assume that Bart Torvik and ESPN use a similar approach.

    https://kenpom.com/blog/ingame-win-probabilities/

    In short, the calculation is based on score, time remaining, which team has possession, and the relative strength of each team (adjusted for home court advantage). The relative strength of each team is important in explaining why Bart Torvik still gave Duke an 85.9% chance of beating BC despite the fact that Duke trailed by 2 at halftime.

    http://www.barttorvik.com/box.php?mu...e2-5&year=2019

    As others have pointed out, the “Bill James method” isn’t trying to predict the chance each team has of winning at a given point, but is trying to establish a rule-of-thumb for determining the point at which the trailing team has no chance of winning. In other words, the lead is either safe (100% chance of winning) or it isn’t safe (less than 100% chance of winning).
    Has the Bill James method ever been wrong? I'm guessing no. Has it ever been close to wrong (a game that was calculated 100% safe that came within 3 points or something similar)?

  11. #51
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Acymetric View Post
    Has the Bill James method ever been wrong? I'm guessing no. Has it ever been close to wrong (a game that was calculated 100% safe that came within 3 points or something similar)?
    several times. I did some scoping out of biggest comebacks ever to try to come up with some sort of regression a while back, and here were the ones I found that failed his test:

    http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-bas...xc13im/slide/3
    down 5, safe lead = 4.6

    http://www.slate.com/articles/sports...d_is_safe.html
    down 8 safe lead = 7

    http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-bas...xc13im/slide/5
    down 10 safe lead 8.5

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comeback_(sports)#NCAA
    norther iowa over tx a&m
    down 12 safe lead 9

    http://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-...xc13im/slide/2
    down 13 safe lead 10

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comeback_(sports)#NCAA
    new mexico nevada
    down 14 safe lead 11

    http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...meId=400919906
    down 17 safe lead 15
    down 19 safe lead 18

    Those are all the ones i could find.
    1200. DDMF.

  12. #52
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Santa Clara, CA
    Quote Originally Posted by brevity View Post
    All of you are completely wrong. Coach K's best comeback was "F--- you, Dean!"

    (I assume we are including verbal comebacks.)

    (I think that was the 1989 ACC Tournament final. Please correct me if it was not.)
    Winner! Winner! Chicken dinner!

    9F
    I will never talk about That Game. GTHC.

  13. #53
    Quote Originally Posted by brevity View Post
    All of you are completely wrong. Coach K's best comeback was "F--- you, Dean!"

    (I assume we are including verbal comebacks.)

    (I think that was the 1989 ACC Tournament final. Please correct me if it was not.)
    I don’t recall when that occurred, but K’s “double standard” quote and Deano pounding the scorers table buzzer was much earlier, 1984 I think.

  14. #54
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh
    Quote Originally Posted by Acymetric View Post
    Has the Bill James method ever been wrong? I'm guessing no. Has it ever been close to wrong (a game that was calculated 100% safe that came within 3 points or something similar)?
    I would guess it has been wrong rarely. I don't think he claimed it's infallible. He does claim in The Slate article that however that he believes once it's "safe," (or >100% "certain"), it is indeed "safe," even if the "safe" team only wins by a few points. (Yes, I do scratch my chin about that just a bit.)
    [redacted] them and the horses they rode in on.

  15. #55
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Winston Salem, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    There was no game-winning buzzer-beater in the 1968 game. By anyone.

    Bobby Jones had a game-winner in the first 1974 game.

    Guess we're not counting that.

    Robby West won the 1972 game late. But there were a few seconds left. Carolina even got off a desperation shot at the buzzer.
    Was Jones game-winner off his steal and layup to beat the Good Guys? Strictly relying on my old-old memory. Jones was one of the few tarheels that I liked. Well up until that play. GoDuke!

  16. #56
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh
    Quote Originally Posted by arnie View Post
    I don’t recall when that occurred, but K’s “double standard” quote and Deano pounding the scorers table buzzer was much earlier, 1984 I think.
    I believe you and brev are both correct. I'm pretty sure the table-pounding incident also occurred at CIS and added 20 points to the cheats score, even before they really started cheating.
    [redacted] them and the horses they rode in on.

  17. #57
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by devildeac View Post
    ...even before they really started cheating.
    I don't think you can say definitively that they had not "really started" at that point. A program willing to cheat so brazenly for decades probably started cheating much earlier on a smaller scale.

  18. #58
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh
    Quote Originally Posted by gus View Post
    I don't think you can say definitively that they had not "really started" at that point. A program willing to cheat so brazenly for decades probably started cheating much earlier on a smaller scale.
    I could also subscribe to that belief. If dean's myth invented peach baskets, f**r corners, pointing, sliding under shooters, they could have easily invented combined athletic and academic cheating.
    [redacted] them and the horses they rode in on.

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