This Week in the ACC: 2/11-2/17

[Truth&Justise]

Why is the color commentator screaming "You can't be serious with that shot?" It was a wide open 3 in transition.

I know the clock was running down and they maybe should have tried to run clock, but wasn't that a high percentage shot?

It was because he shot so early in the shot clock. Northern Iowa had led the overall #1 seed basically the entire game, but it had gotten tight in the closing moments and UNI was showing perhaps signs of cracking under pressure and blowing their lead. They had the opportunity to run the shot clock down to ~7 seconds, still with a lead.
But instead, Farokhmanesh went for the dagger, and, well, here we are talking about it almost 9 years(?!?!) later.

To illustrate the point further, you're right that an open 3 in transition is a "high percentage shot," but it's not as good as getting two free throws.

Let's say an open transition three is a good look because you hit it about 40% of the time. That would mean you have an expected return of 1.2 points. That's good!

But in that situation, Kansas had to foul.* The expected value of two free throws for Farokhmanesh, an 81% free throw shooter, is 1.62 points.

So holding the ball, wasting any amount of time, and then shooting free throws is generally the better strategy. What Farokhmanesh did was way riskier, but much more fun. And a hell of a way to cap off an upset over the overall #1 team!


*It's possible Kansas would have opted not to foul, but then it would have, at best, regained the ball with about seven second left, down 1. If I'm coaching a team, I'd much prefer to foul and have the ball with 30+ seconds while down by 2 or 3.

[PackMan97]

To illustrate the point further, you're right that an open 3 in transition is a "high percentage shot," but it's not as good as getting two free throws.

Let's say an open transition three is a good look because you hit it about 40% of the time. That would mean you have an expected return of 1.2 points. That's good!

But in that situation, Kansas had to foul.* The expected value of two free throws for Farokhmanesh, an 81% free throw shooter, is 1.62 points.

So holding the ball, wasting any amount of time, and then shooting free throws is generally the better strategy. What Farokhmanesh did was way riskier, but much more fun. And a hell of a way to cap off an upset over the overall #1 team!


*It's possible Kansas would have opted not to foul, but then it would have, at best, regained the ball with about seven second left, down 1. If I'm coaching a team, I'd much prefer to foul and have the ball with 30+ seconds while down by 2 or 3.

You neglect to include the chances of Northern Iowa choking up a turnover or giving the refs a chance to blow a whistle in favor of Kansas.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Mid majors play with no fear and often do the unexpected or "best" play. It's why March MAdness is so great, babyyyyyyyyyyy!

True, but I remember watching that game and thinking WTF ARE YOU DOING when he launched it. Classic case of no no no - yes yes yes...and that game was almost as much fun as Georgetown-Florida Gulf Coast...

[Truth&Justise]

True, but I remember watching that game and thinking WTF ARE YOU DOING when he launched it. Classic case of no no no - yes yes yes...and that game was almost as much fun as Georgetown-Florida Gulf Coast...

My second favorite "no no no no...YES!" shot that didn't involve Duke:



(Sorry for the video quality. I think one of the pixels in there somewhere is Jim Boeheim)

[BandAlum83]

My second favorite "no no no no...YES!" shot that didn't involve Duke:



(Sorry for the video quality. I think one of the pixels in there somewhere is Jim Boeheim)

Mid majors play with no fear!

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

My second favorite "no no no no...YES!" shot that didn't involve Duke:



(Sorry for the video quality. I think one of the pixels in there somewhere is Jim Boeheim)

That video just reminds me of how UNCA got hosed at the end of a round of 64 game against Syracuse. Several very questionable calls. Grrrrr...

[Bob Green]

Wednesday

[73]Miami (2-9) (+2) hosts [31]Clemson (5-5) (7:00, ESPN2)
[22]Florida State (6-4) (-18) hosts [176]Wake Forest (7:00, ACCNE)
[10]Virginia Tech (7-4) (-15) hosts [102]Georgia Tech (3-8) (8:00, ACCNE)
[39]NC State (5-6) (-4) hosts [42]Syracuse (8-3) (8:00, ACCNE)

Tonight's action includes several match ups which interest me.

First, Clemson seeking its five straight victory travels to Miami. The Canes are coming off an overtime loss at Chapel Hill. Clemson is back in the NCAAT discussion so they need to take care of business in Coral Gables. I'll be rooting for the Tigers as I believe Brad Brownell is doing a good job and I'd like to see him have the opportunity to keep building a program at Clemson. Plus, Miami is one of those teams it is almost always fun to see lose.

Next, Virginia Tech attempts to halt their losing streak at two games. The Hokies are extremely shorthanded without point guard Justin Robinson. Can they gut out win over heavy underdog Georgia Tech? With upcoming games against UVa, Duke and FSU, Virginia Tech cannot afford to lose to Georgia Tech. Go Yellow Jackets!

Finally, N.C. State attempts to even their ACC record at 6-6 against Syracuse (8-3). State will have to find a way to make some shots against the Orange zone or it will be a long night. Syracuse is still in the running for a double bye in the ACCT so they should be plenty motivated to knock off the Wolfpack. I fully expect Syracuse to win but, out of respect for the "old ACC", I will hold my nose and root for State.

[CDu]

Tonight's action includes several match ups which interest me.

First, Clemson seeking its five straight victory travels to Miami. The Canes are coming off an overtime loss at Chapel Hill. Clemson is back in the NCAAT discussion so they need to take care of business in Coral Gables. I'll be rooting for the Tigers as I believe Brad Brownell is doing a good job and I'd like to see him have the opportunity to keep building a program at Clemson. Plus, Miami is one of those teams it is almost always fun to see lose.

Next, Virginia Tech attempts to halt their losing streak at two games. The Hokies are extremely shorthanded without point guard Justin Robinson. Can they gut out win over heavy underdog Georgia Tech? With upcoming games against UVa, Duke and FSU, Virginia Tech cannot afford to lose to Georgia Tech. Go Yellow Jackets!

Finally, N.C. State attempts to even their ACC record at 6-6 against Syracuse (8-3). State will have to find a way to make some shots against the Orange zone or it will be a long night. Syracuse is still in the running for a double bye in the ACCT so they should be plenty motivated to knock off the Wolfpack. I fully expect Syracuse to win but, out of respect for the "old ACC", I will hold my nose and root for State.

If State wins tonight (and they are favored as (a) the slightly better team and (b) at home), they will be in a really good position to make the NCAA tourney again. They have four games left against Wake, Ga Tech, and BC. Win those and they will be at 10-8 with wins over other bubblicious teams Clemson, Auburn, and Syracuse. They came up just short against Wisconsin and UVa in games that would have made them more secure. But the back end of their schedule is really nice.

[dukelifer]

If State wins tonight (and they are favored as (a) the slightly better team and (b) at home), they will be in a really good position to make the NCAA tourney again. They have four games left against Wake, Ga Tech, and BC. Win those and they will be at 10-8 with wins over other bubblicious teams Clemson, Auburn, and Syracuse. They came up just short against Wisconsin and UVa in games that would have made them more secure. But the back end of their schedule is really nice.

They killed Cuse so it looks like they have a good shot. Hopefully a hangover for Sat.

[CDu]

Big win for the Wuffies. Now hopefully they have it out of their system in time for our game Saturday.

[Bob Green]

Saturday

[13]Louisville (8-3) (-7) hosts [31]Clemson (5-5) (12:00, ESPN)
[176]Wake Forest (2-8) (+17) hosts [8]North Carolina (9-1) (12:00, ACCNE)
[2]Virginia (8-2) (-19) hosts [89]Notre Dame (3-8) (2:00, ACCNE)
[102]Georgia Tech (3-8) (+5) hosts [22]Florida State (6-4) (2:00, ACCNE)
[77]Pittsburgh (2-9) (+6) hosts [10]Virginia Tech (7-4) (4:30, ACCNE)
[1]Duke (9-1) (-19) hosts [39]NC State (5-6) (6:00, ESPN)

It's Saturday so a bump back to the top is in order to facilitate discussing today's full slate of action. Bubble teams Clemson and N.C. State (they are bubble teams in my opinion) both face tough tests on the road. Clemson's situation is more perilous than State so the Tigers need a win big time. The big unknown is how Louisville reacts to their collapse on Tuesday. Do they come out fired up seeking redemption? Or, do they play like a team whose soul has been crushed? Even with a loss, State most likely stays on the right side of the bubble for now.

The teams vying for ACCT double bye seeding (Duke/UVa/UNC/VT/Louisville) all have match ups they should win which means at least one team will probably lose. That's why they play the games.

[BandAlum83]

It's Saturday so a bump back to the top is in order to facilitate discussing today's full slate of action. Bubble teams Clemson and N.C. State (they are bubble teams in my opinion) both face tough tests on the road. Clemson's situation is more perilous than State so the Tigers need a win big time. The big unknown is how Louisville reacts to their collapse on Tuesday. Do they come out fired up seeking redemption? Or, do they play like a team whose soul has been crushed? Even with a loss, State most likely stays on the right side of the bubble for now.

The teams vying for ACCT double bye seeding (Duke/UVa/UNC/VT/Louisville) all have match ups they should win which means at least one team will probably lose. That's why they play the games.

Clemson really needs this win badly. Maybe they will smell some residual blood in the water and go for a quick knockout punch on Louisville. I think they will wilt under pressure and L'ville will right the ship. Clemson will do well to go 4-3 over their remaining 7 games. 3-4 seems more likely, but this game may set the tome for their stretch run.

With the returning core from last year's sweet 16 team, Clemson should not be in this position (on the bubble).

Today is a big game, with Fl State looming next.

I have my fake bets on Louisville, but am rooting for Clemson (and the over 131.5)

[arnie]

I know the buyout is huge, but surely Wake has a wealthy supporter that’s fed up. Wake down at HOME to Cheats 32-7 with seven to go in 1st half. Crowd is very quiet and probably more cheat fans there.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I know the buyout is huge, but surely Wake has a wealthy supporter that’s fed up. Wake down at HOME to Cheats 32-7 with seven to go in 1st half. Crowd is very quiet and probably more cheat fans there.

HAH, I just posted on the degenerate thread that maybe Wake will pull a Carl Franks and fire Danny at half...(mostly kidding...)

The good news, the cheats are 7-9 from three....hope they get that out of their system....

[arnie]

HAH, I just posted on the degenerate thread that maybe Wake will pull a Carl Franks and fire Danny at half...(mostly kidding...)

The good news, the cheats are 7-9 from three...hope they get that out of their system...

We could not blame them if they showed him the door in a few moments. Fortunately for us, don’t think Franks had a big buyout provision.😀

[HereBeforeCoachK]

We could not blame them if they showed him the door in a few moments. Fortunately for us, don’t think Franks had a big buyout provision.😀

Wake is a low revenue athletic department for Power 5....their athletic department may have to declare chapter 11 bankruptcy (re-organization) or live with Manning...(again only part kidding).

[dukelifer]

HAH, I just posted on the degenerate thread that maybe Wake will pull a Carl Franks and fire Danny at half...(mostly kidding...)

The good news, the cheats are 7-9 from three...hope they get that out of their system...

UNC shooting 75% overall. They are crazy dangerous when hot.

[richardjackson199]

UNC shooting 75% overall. They are crazy dangerous when hot.

UNC shooting 75% overall from 3. 9/12 from 3 at halftime. Not scared. Duke can play a little D and Cameron will be rocking a bit more than Joel. Just win tonight and stay healthy.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

UNC shooting 75% overall. They are crazy dangerous when hot.

True, but they're not likely to have this kind of shooting two games in a row...and of course WF is sleep walking on defense...

And on that 9-12...I wonder if that includes that 80 foot heave at the buzzer....

[richardjackson199]

Wake only down 37 in 2nd half. Time for Wake to start their epic comeback...

(Johnson now 6-6 from 3)