Interesting info on Barrett

[COYS]

Two benefits of the pull-up mid range shot that wont show up in the shooting percentages are avoiding charge calls and decreasing defensive certainty/drawing the defense away from the rim which makes attacking the rim easier.

(I only remember 1 game where we racked up a ton of charge calls so this problem may be rare or already solved...)

These are good points. There is a perfect Nash-equilibrium out there in which RJ takes just enough 2 point jumpers to keep defenses honest enough that his drives to the basket have maximum efficiency.

There is also benefit to having a guy who can make tough shots. There’s a reason that many of the most efficient offensive players also tend to be lower-usage guys. RJ isn’t the most efficient scorer, but very few players can be as efficient as he is and use the same volume of possessions. Sometimes you need someone to score late in the shot clock if the offense has broken down or when the opposition is totally zeroed in on defense.

That said, I still want to see RJ take shots at the rim and beyond the arc, primarily.

[CDu]

Two benefits of the pull-up mid range shot that wont show up in the shooting percentages are avoiding charge calls and decreasing defensive certainty/drawing the defense away from the rim which makes attacking the rim easier.

(I only remember 1 game where we racked up a ton of charge calls so this problem may be rare or already solved...)

These are good points. There is a perfect Nash-equilibrium out there in which RJ takes just enough 2 point jumpers to keep defenses honest enough that his drives to the basket have maximum efficiency.

There is also benefit to having a guy who can make tough shots. There’s a reason that many of the most efficient offensive players also tend to be lower-usage guys. RJ isn’t the most efficient scorer, but very few players can be as efficient as he is and use the same volume of possessions. Sometimes you need someone to score late in the shot clock if the offense has broken down or when the opposition is totally zeroed in on defense.

That said, I still want to see RJ take shots at the rim and beyond the arc, primarily.

The problem with this theory is that Barrett isn’t shooting nearly a high enough percentage in the midrange to “keep teams honest.” He is shooting 35% on the season and 39% in ACC play. Those are abysmal numbers. Barrett shooting from the midrange is a win for the defense. They have no incentive to be concerned about him taking those shots.

[COYS]

The problem with this theory is that Barrett isn’t shooting nearly a high enough percentage in the midrange to “keep teams honest.” He is shooting 35% on the season and 39% in ACC play. Those are abysmal numbers. Barrett shooting from the midrange is a win for the defense. They have no incentive to be concerned about him taking those shots.

Hence my emphasis on there being an equilibrium out there at which the shot makes sense. We’re in agreement that 2-point jumpers are generally a suboptimal shot and he should probably reduce the number that he takes. However, he probably shouldn’t be taking zero, either, as pull-ups from 10-15 feet can be effective and the occasional late-in-the-shot-clock 2 is necessary.

Although I could be completely imagining this, the eye test also tells me that his 2pt jumper % is much higher when he is driving straight toward the basket either on the break when he has pulled up at 10-15 feet or on straight line drives to the basket. He is a lot less accurate on fade-aways and long-range floaters/layups that are classified as jump shots. Limiting his 2pt jumpers to higher-percentage chances would help him reduce the total number and increase his percentages, at the same time.

[Jeffrey]

For example, if Zion and I both played against 5-year-olds, I would be just as good a player as him. I might be better actually because he seems like a good guy that would take it easy on them and buy them ice cream or something. But once you get to just a middle school level, it probably becomes obvious that he's better than me.

You're giving yourself waaaaaaay too much credit!

[phaedrus]

The problem with this theory is that Barrett isn’t shooting nearly a high enough percentage in the midrange to “keep teams honest.” He is shooting 35% on the season and 39% in ACC play. Those are abysmal numbers. Barrett shooting from the midrange is a win for the defense. They have no incentive to be concerned about him taking those shots.

Those numbers aren't good, but they're not as bad as they look. J.J. Redick shoots around 41% from 10-16 feet (right around his career 3P%); Steph Curry around 45%; Demar DeRozan, known for his midrange game, around 42%. Those are tough and inefficient shots for literally everyone, which is why their frequency should be limited. But I think they're still important for the reasons mentioned - even if you're hitting in the mid-to-high 30s.

[CDu]

Those numbers aren't good, but they're not as bad as they look. J.J. Redick shoots around 41% from 10-16 feet (right around his career 3P%); Steph Curry around 45%; Demar DeRozan, known for his midrange game, around 42%. Those are tough and inefficient shots for literally everyone, which is why their frequency should be limited. But I think they're still important for the reasons mentioned - even if you're hitting in the mid-to-high 30s.

I wasn't saying Barrett is bad at them relative to other players. I was saying that they are woefully inefficient shots. And I don't think they provide any value. Defenses WANT you to shoot those shots. Aside from taking end of shot-clock shots (and in that case, I'd prefer to just chuck up a 3), there isn't a good reason in my opinion to be taking those shots. Unless the defense is really bad/dumb, they aren't going to be interested in protecting against that shot. And they especially aren't going to be so if they know the shooter is expected to hit less than 40% of them.

There is a reason that the NBA is becoming a "3 or dunk/layup" league. Those are the most efficient ways to score. Teams are trying to minimize the number of shots they take from 10-15 feet because they realize how inefficient it is.

Hence my statement that I'd rather see Barrett eliminate those midrange shots as much as possible and turn them into layup attempts or kickouts.

[MChambers]

These are good points. There is a perfect Nash-equilibrium out there in which RJ takes just enough 2 point jumpers to keep defenses honest enough that his drives to the basket have maximum efficiency.

There is also benefit to having a guy who can make tough shots. There’s a reason that many of the most efficient offensive players also tend to be lower-usage guys. RJ isn’t the most efficient scorer, but very few players can be as efficient as he is and use the same volume of possessions. Sometimes you need someone to score late in the shot clock if the offense has broken down or when the opposition is totally zeroed in on defense.

That said, I still want to see RJ take shots at the rim and beyond the arc, primarily.

John Nash or Steve Nash?

I really enjoyed my game theory class at Duke!

[phaedrus]

Aside from taking end of shot-clock shots (and in that case, I'd prefer to just chuck up a 3), there isn't a good reason in my opinion to be taking those shots. Unless the defense is really bad/dumb, they aren't going to be interested in protecting against that shot. And they especially aren't going to be so if they know the shooter is expected to hit less than 40% of them.

There is a reason that the NBA is becoming a "3 or dunk/layup" league. Those are the most efficient ways to score. Teams are trying to minimize the number of shots they take from 10-15 feet because they realize how inefficient it is.

This has become common knowledge. And yet Steph Curry shoots 25% of his shots between 10 feet and the three-point line, DeRozan (probably the high-water mark) over half. (James Harden, you probably won't be surprised to learn, shoots a mere 7.2% of his shots from that range.) So there are some really good, smart offensive players who still see value in these shots.

[CDu]

This has become common knowledge. And yet Steph Curry shoots 25% of his shots between 10 feet and the three-point line, DeRozan (probably the high-water mark) over half. (James Harden, you probably won't be surprised to learn, shoots a mere 7.2% of his shots from that range.) So there are some really good, smart offensive players who still see value in these shots.

Right, but (a) Curry shoots about 10% better on those shots and (b) NBA defenses are MUCH better than college defenses. The combination of those facts makes it understandable that a decent chunk of shots are midrange (for the record, I wouldn't call DeRozan an overly smart offensive player). I don't think those guys are a compelling argument for a much less efficient shooter to be shooting over 25% of his shots from that distance.

And, to be clear, that's not solely a criticism of Barrett. Tre Jones shoots 38% of his shots from midrange, and connects on just 39% of them. That number should probably go down too.

[Steven43]

There is a reason that the NBA is becoming a "3 or dunk/layup" league. Those are the most efficient ways to score. Teams are trying to minimize the number of shots they take from 10-15 feet because they realize how inefficient it is.

Oh my GOD, an entire league of James Harden playalikes would be utterly unwatchable.

[AZLA]

Oh my GOD, an entire league of James Harden playalikes would be utterly unwatchable.

Hah! Well stated and exactly my sentiments.

Someone earlier brought up something about RJ looking for the mid range pull up. It truly is way underutilized by RJ, although the last game, he was using it more and successful out at it. In fact, I think when Tre decides to score his move and pull up in the lane is highly effective and darn near impossible to defend. RJ tries to draw a lot of contact getting to the layup, however, against bigs the refs seem to be reluctant to call the extra contact -- mostly because RJ tends to jump into the defender. I think it should be called, every time -- a foul is a foul -- and it affects his shooting percentage -- so I think the mid range pull up should be used more. Also, it draws the defender away a little more and creates space for Zion to come in and clean up any misses.

This may be out of left field, but remember Roshown Mcleod? I felt he was one of the most effective mid-range/pull up in the paint shooters.