So here's who each of the teams were (I know many of you probably sussed it out on your own):
A=Duke
B=Kentucky
C=Virginia
D=Michigan State
E=Gonzaga
F=Michigan
G=Tennessee
As far as the No. 1 overall seed, a vast majority of people picked us... with MSU in second, Virginia in third, and one vote for Michigan (which wasn't me surprisingly, haha).
When it came to who the No. 1 seeds were, almost everyone who participated said Duke, Virginia and Tennessee would be on the top line (which corresponds with the general consensus from Bracketologists, it seems, so nice job!). The fourth No. 1 seed was a bit more of a debate, with Michigan and Michigan State being the most picked teams (some people actually had both of those as No. 1 seeds instead of Tennessee, which is an interesting scenario).
For those who might be interested, when I was looking through things (trying my best to keep things "blind", but I was also looking at the Team Sheets) I thought Duke, Tennessee, Michigan, and Virginia should be the top seeds (in that order), with MSU the next closest. How did I come to this decision? Well:
- Kentucky was the first eliminated. While they have the potential to jump up to the 1 line with the way they're playing and two matchups against Tennessee left to go, obviously they aren't there yet. I included them just to show that they've quickly turned their season around to even put themselves back in the running for a top seed. I would suspect that at most one SEC team will get a No. 1 seed, and it could very well come down to the UK-Tennessee matchups.
- Gonzaga is also eliminated because they just don't have enough top-tier victories. A one-loss Gonzaga team might be in the running, but two losses with only 5 total Q1/Q2 wins is pretty tough to overcome. Gonzaga only has a shot at a No. 1 seed at this point, in my analysis, if a lot of top teams falter considerably.
- Among the remaining 5 teams, Duke clearly differentiates itself based on overall SOS, Q1 victories, and the relative quality of those Q1 victories. Duke wins in Q1 resume both in quality and quantity, which overcomes the extra loss.
- Among the four remaining teams, MSU has the most Q1 wins. However, I eliminated MSU based on two factors: first, the relative quality of those Q1 wins (their most impressive win came at home, and all of their away/neutral court wins were amounted to "lower tier" Q1 wins), and the fact that you can't discount two additional losses. I recognize that this is not the prevailing opinion on this board or amongst "bracketologists", but I think that losses have to count for something. IMHO for a team with two more losses than another team from a power conference to overtake them on the seeding line, their resume would have to be clearly superior. While you can argue that MSU has the best resume based on Q1 wins, I don't think that resume is clearly superior to any of the 1 loss teams. The closest team is probably Michigan, but considering they're in the same conference, with the same record, and Michigan had a superior NC resume, I don't see how you choose MSU over Michigan.
All that said, a lot of this will sort itself out, particularly Michigan vs. MSU and Kentucky vs. Kansas. I think there's a scenario in which the SEC cannibalizes itself (i.e. Kentucky sweeps Tennessee and shows up for those big games, but also drops a couple more bad upsets as they're prone to do) and leaves the 1 line open just for the ACC and B1G. But for me, the most interesting part of this exercise was how much people liked MSU's resume despite having the most losses on the board... I found it very surprising that not only were they consistently chosen as a No. 1 seed, but that many thought they deserved the OVERALL No. 1 seed despite 3 losses. Again, I may be in the minority but I think losses have to count for something. It'll be interesting to see which way the committee goes come Selection Sunday if a choice like this presents itself!