View Poll Results: Who amongst these "blind resume" teams would you pick as the No. 1 overall seed?

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  • A

    27 72.97%
  • B

    0 0%
  • C

    3 8.11%
  • D

    6 16.22%
  • E

    0 0%
  • F

    1 2.70%
  • G

    0 0%
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  1. #1
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    NET News (January 28): Who would the No. 1 seeds be based on blind resumes?

    There hasn't been too much to shake up the NET rankings this week beyond two major results: Kentucky's win over Kansas and Michigan State's upset loss to Purdue (I told you all it was coming, haha). Thus, instead of doing the NET breakdown like I've been doing over the past few weeks I figured it might be a good time to do a "blind resume" exercise to see if how we perceive the strength of the top teams corresponds with the data provided on the NCAA Team Sheets, which are primarily driven by the NET rankings instead of the RPI now.

    Below, I've made a table with the resumes of the seven teams that I think the consensus is are reasonably in the running for No. 1 seeds (note that I'm moving to seven teams despite talking about a "top-6" recently... you may have an inkling as to why, but I won't spoil that to maintain the anonymity of the exercise!). All of the data is taken directly via the NET Rankings and the Team Sheets through games played on January 27, meaning that if the season ended today, these would be the primary data points provided to the committee. When I list wins/losses, I'll again keep things anonymous by listing them as something like "H19", which would be a home win (or loss) against the team ranked 19 in the NET. Obviously you may be able to suss out who is who, but try not to spoil it for everyone, haha.

    Based off of this, I'm curious to see what people think about not only who the 4 No. 1 seeds should be, but also who the No. 1 overall seed should be. I'll put the later question as a "poll" (since there are 35 possible outcomes of 7 choose 4 for those mathematically inclined out there, haha), so keep your responses about the 4 No. 1 seeds to replies. Sometime later today I'll try to compile everyone's thoughts and reveal who is who and see if anything interesting has come about from looking at team resume's not through the lens of the big names, but instead through the NET data. Enjoy!

    Team A B C D E F G
    Record 17-2 16-3 18-1 18-3 19-2 19-1 17-1
    NET Rank 3 8 1 6 2 4 5
    KPI Rank 2 10 1 3 4 5 6
    "Q1" Record 6-1 5-2 4-1 8-3 3-2 5-1 4-1
    "Q2" Record 3-1 2-1 6-0 4-0 2-0 5-0 4-0
    Q1 Wins H1, N8, N18, A33, N26, A63 N9, A12, A26, H16, H27 H10, N13, A22, A59 H11, A25, A30, A36, A37, H22, H30, N43 N3, A47, A58 H9, H11, A21, A41, A56 N2, N12, N16, A36, A54
    Losses N2, H48 N3, A44, N64 A3 A11, A12, N16 N5, A9 A13 N16
    Non-Conference SOS 8 38 222 113 67 153 30
    Overall SOS 6 33 67 24 58 64 39
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  2. #2
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    A c d g
    1200. DDMF.

  3. #3
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    A good example of why the blind resume should not always be the best way to go. A clear case may be made for D, with A as #2. The "D" losses coming on the road to 2 top 12 teams, and neutral to another top 20, doesn't look so bad against all of the quality wins. The out of conference SOS is pathetic, but overall 24 mitigates that some.

    Not sure why you added the #10 Net team. You thought we could guess, but I for one can't guess why, other than it's a team we would NEVER think belongs that high,

  4. #4
    scottdude8's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BandAlum83 View Post
    A good example of why the blind resume should not always be the best way to go. A clear case may be made for D, with A as #2. The "D" losses coming on the road to 2 top 12 teams, and neutral to another top 20, doesn't look so bad against all of the quality wins. The out of conference SOS is pathetic, but overall 24 mitigates that some.

    Not sure why you added the #10 Net team. You thought we could guess, but I for one can't guess why, other than it's a team we would NEVER think belongs that high,
    I think you got the NET and KPI mixed up, because the team I "added" is No. 8 in the NET and No. 10 in the KPI.

    Also, I'm tempted to post who I'd choose, but that might make it a little more obvious who is who in the anonymous table. So I'll save that (with an explanation, of course, haha) for later
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  5. #5
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    Is anyone else only seeing four teams listed in the table?

  6. #6
    scottdude8's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JohnJ View Post
    Is anyone else only seeing four teams listed in the table?
    Screen Shot 2019-01-28 at 1.39.10 PM.jpg

    This is what I see... I hope I didn't make a mistake in creating the table! Are you perhaps viewing via the mobile browser?
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  7. #7
    For me it's A C D F

  8. #8
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    For what it's worth, if I ran the numbers again in three hours I would probably come up with entirely different results.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ian View Post
    For me it's A C D F
    the NCSOS turned me off from F. Not that either the arguments or meta-arguments matter here, but I'd rather reward someone with 1 fewer top win but who actually scheduled people when they didn't have to.

    december basketball makes me vomit.
    1200. DDMF.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    the NCSOS turned me off from F. Not that either the arguments or meta-arguments matter here, but I'd rather reward someone with 1 fewer top win but who actually scheduled people when they didn't have to.

    december basketball makes me vomit.
    See, I'm the opposite. Well, I mean I much prefer teams play better teams so that we have better games, I agree with you about December basketball. I don't really like making that part of seeding criteria though. To me, overall SOS is best used as a tiebreaker after considering quality of wins vs. quality of losses.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    the NCSOS turned me off from F. Not that either the arguments or meta-arguments matter here, but I'd rather reward someone with 1 fewer top win but who actually scheduled people when they didn't have to.

    december basketball makes me vomit.
    The discussion of SOS is interesting, and brings up one of the things that I'm sure will be hotly debated when it comes to seeding: with regards to non-conference scheduling what matters more, the overall SOS or the "top-tier" SOS (and corresponding ability to get top-tier victories)? One of the biggest flaws in the RPI was that your RPI could be artificially inflated if you chose to play a bunch of middling RPI teams that you were still definitely going to beat in your non-conference schedule while never playing any marquee, lose-able games... in contrast, a team could play a handful of solid opponents from power conferences, but have their RPI weighed down by a couple of games against teams with sub-300 RPIs. To me the NET has done a better job of correcting for this (it isn't by any means perfect, but it's an improvement) in its overall rankings, but the question itself still poses itself on the team sheet with how different committee members will weigh the overall NC SOS vs specific NC wins or losses.

    Also, as a more specific sidebar... if the SOS turned you off from F, why wouldn't it also turn you off from C, which has a significantly worse NC SOS (in fact, it's the worst amongst the 7 teams listed here) as well as a slightly worse overall SOS? Just curious.
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  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
    The discussion of SOS is interesting, and brings up one of the things that I'm sure will be hotly debated when it comes to seeding: with regards to non-conference scheduling what matters more, the overall SOS or the "top-tier" SOS (and corresponding ability to get top-tier victories)? One of the biggest flaws in the RPI was that your RPI could be artificially inflated if you chose to play a bunch of middling RPI teams that you were still definitely going to beat in your non-conference schedule while never playing any marquee, lose-able games... in contrast, a team could play a handful of solid opponents from power conferences, but have their RPI weighed down by a couple of games against teams with sub-300 RPIs. To me the NET has done a better job of correcting for this (it isn't by any means perfect, but it's an improvement) in its overall rankings, but the question itself still poses itself on the team sheet with how different committee members will weigh the overall NC SOS vs specific NC wins or losses.
    I don't think historically that non-conference SOS (or SOS at all for that matter) has historically been a significant factor in seeding of the teams at the top of the bracket, other than the oddities of a Gonzaga or Nevada or Wichita St. outlier from a conference that doesn't provide opportunities against top teams.

    When comparing, for instance, a 28-3 Virginia against a 27-4 Tennessee and a 26-5 Kansas, I don't recall their respective non-con SOSs weighing into the discussion much. I think the number of Q1/Q2 wins and the number of "bad" losses (plus conference championships) has really driven the decisions at the top of the bracket

    Non-con SOS has typically been much more of a discussion point for the debate between the last few bubble teams -- and the Committee has often cited that as a factor for why a team gets left out. But, I'm hard put to recall any example of the Committee citing non-con SOS as a factor in choosing between major conference teams for #1 seeds.

  13. #13
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    ACGD, in that order

    Fun exercise. For me, ACGD in that order.

    One thing that the committee is allowed to take into account (that is not on the table) is injuries, which I'm pretty sure played a role in Team A's most troublesome loss! Honestly, without knowing about that injury impact (or the head-to-head matchup, including injury), I'd probably make C the top seed, by a smidge.

    To me, G and D raise the interesting comparative issue of relying too much on the tier-ing without looking at the quality of wins/loses within the tier. Of course, team D's eight Tier 1 wins seems really impressive at first until I notice that their best win was #11 and their second best win was #22. Whereas Team G has only four Tier 1 wins, but that includes wins against #2, #12, and #16. And in terms of the scheduling they can control, Team D played the 30th most difficult non-conference schedule.

    I guess that if I could add any data category (other than injuries to significant players during games lost), some kind of mean victory margin against Tier 1 (or something like that) could be important for differentiation as well? Thanks for doing this!
    159!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (hexi-decimally, that is)

    Go Duke!!!!!! Go Blue Devils!!!!!!!!!!!! GTHCGTH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  14. #14
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    I think team G is missing a win...

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by FerryFor50 View Post
    I think team G is missing a win...
    Darn, I knew there would end up being a mistake there somewhere... and I can’t edit the original post anymore

  16. #16
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    The big reveal!

    So here's who each of the teams were (I know many of you probably sussed it out on your own):
    A=Duke
    B=Kentucky
    C=Virginia
    D=Michigan State
    E=Gonzaga
    F=Michigan
    G=Tennessee

    As far as the No. 1 overall seed, a vast majority of people picked us... with MSU in second, Virginia in third, and one vote for Michigan (which wasn't me surprisingly, haha).

    When it came to who the No. 1 seeds were, almost everyone who participated said Duke, Virginia and Tennessee would be on the top line (which corresponds with the general consensus from Bracketologists, it seems, so nice job!). The fourth No. 1 seed was a bit more of a debate, with Michigan and Michigan State being the most picked teams (some people actually had both of those as No. 1 seeds instead of Tennessee, which is an interesting scenario).

    For those who might be interested, when I was looking through things (trying my best to keep things "blind", but I was also looking at the Team Sheets) I thought Duke, Tennessee, Michigan, and Virginia should be the top seeds (in that order), with MSU the next closest. How did I come to this decision? Well:
    • Kentucky was the first eliminated. While they have the potential to jump up to the 1 line with the way they're playing and two matchups against Tennessee left to go, obviously they aren't there yet. I included them just to show that they've quickly turned their season around to even put themselves back in the running for a top seed. I would suspect that at most one SEC team will get a No. 1 seed, and it could very well come down to the UK-Tennessee matchups.
    • Gonzaga is also eliminated because they just don't have enough top-tier victories. A one-loss Gonzaga team might be in the running, but two losses with only 5 total Q1/Q2 wins is pretty tough to overcome. Gonzaga only has a shot at a No. 1 seed at this point, in my analysis, if a lot of top teams falter considerably.
    • Among the remaining 5 teams, Duke clearly differentiates itself based on overall SOS, Q1 victories, and the relative quality of those Q1 victories. Duke wins in Q1 resume both in quality and quantity, which overcomes the extra loss.
    • Among the four remaining teams, MSU has the most Q1 wins. However, I eliminated MSU based on two factors: first, the relative quality of those Q1 wins (their most impressive win came at home, and all of their away/neutral court wins were amounted to "lower tier" Q1 wins), and the fact that you can't discount two additional losses. I recognize that this is not the prevailing opinion on this board or amongst "bracketologists", but I think that losses have to count for something. IMHO for a team with two more losses than another team from a power conference to overtake them on the seeding line, their resume would have to be clearly superior. While you can argue that MSU has the best resume based on Q1 wins, I don't think that resume is clearly superior to any of the 1 loss teams. The closest team is probably Michigan, but considering they're in the same conference, with the same record, and Michigan had a superior NC resume, I don't see how you choose MSU over Michigan.

    All that said, a lot of this will sort itself out, particularly Michigan vs. MSU and Kentucky vs. Kansas. I think there's a scenario in which the SEC cannibalizes itself (i.e. Kentucky sweeps Tennessee and shows up for those big games, but also drops a couple more bad upsets as they're prone to do) and leaves the 1 line open just for the ACC and B1G. But for me, the most interesting part of this exercise was how much people liked MSU's resume despite having the most losses on the board... I found it very surprising that not only were they consistently chosen as a No. 1 seed, but that many thought they deserved the OVERALL No. 1 seed despite 3 losses. Again, I may be in the minority but I think losses have to count for something. It'll be interesting to see which way the committee goes come Selection Sunday if a choice like this presents itself!
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  17. #17
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    Thanks for taking the time to put this thread/chart together. I didn't know Virginia's SOS was that bad with 222 out of conference rating. The conference schedule helped get them into the 60s. It will be good to see how this shapes up in the 2nd half schedules. As some have said, TN and the Mildcats can separate themselves with a sweep. The same can be said of Duke-VA. If the Hoos win in Charlottesville, it could come down to the ACCT. No matter what happens, I love this Duke team. GoDuke!

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by jv001 View Post
    Thanks for taking the time to put this thread/chart together. I didn't know Virginia's SOS was that bad with 222 out of conference rating. The conference schedule helped get them into the 60s. It will be good to see how this shapes up in the 2nd half schedules. As some have said, TN and the Mildcats can separate themselves with a sweep. The same can be said of Duke-VA. If the Hoos win in Charlottesville, it could come down to the ACCT. No matter what happens, I love this Duke team. GoDuke!
    Appreciate it! Putting that chart together took more time than I'd like to admit, haha, but I think it was a very interesting exercise. Maybe I'll have to do it again in a month or so when things start to shake themselves out!
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  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
    When it came to who the No. 1 seeds were, almost everyone who participated said Duke, Virginia and Tennessee would be on the top line (which corresponds with the general consensus from Bracketologists, it seems, so nice job!). The fourth No. 1 seed was a bit more of a debate, with Michigan and Michigan State being the most picked teams (some people actually had both of those as No. 1 seeds instead of Tennessee, which is an interesting scenario).
    Interestingly, I had Michigan and Michigan State in over Virginia rather than Tennessee. It is hard for me to remember exactly why, and I'm not sure I agree with myself.

    I originally had Duke(A), Michigan State (D), Tennessee (G), Michigan (F) in that order.

    In hindsight, it should be Duke (A), Michigan State (D), Tennessee (G), Virginia (C). Michigan's SOS takes them just barely out, and I'm not sure why I edged them over UVA (although I noted in my originally post that C was very close to F, so I was undecided when I made the decision as well). I think I might have drifted columns and attributed Kentucky's losses to UVA when doing my analysis on the C team.

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Acymetric View Post
    Interestingly, I had Michigan and Michigan State in over Virginia rather than Tennessee. It is hard for me to remember exactly why, and I'm not sure I agree with myself.

    I originally had Duke(A), Michigan State (D), Tennessee (G), Michigan (F) in that order.

    In hindsight, it should be Duke (A), Michigan State (D), Tennessee (G), Virginia (C). Michigan's SOS takes them just barely out, and I'm not sure why I edged them over UVA (although I noted in my originally post that C was very close to F, so I was undecided when I made the decision as well). I think I might have drifted columns and attributed Kentucky's losses to UVA when doing my analysis on the C team.
    I think what you just outlined is a very interesting example of how blind vs. non-blind can influence things. I would argue (and I think the numbers back me up) that Michigan has a superior resume over Virginia in every aspect except the actual NET and KPI rankings, and perhaps maybe the "eye test". As much as Michigan's SOS might hurt them, Virginia's is significantly worse, especially in the non-conference. Michigan also has two "marquee" NC victories (at Villanova and home against UNC) while UVA's best NC win was against Wisconsin on a neutral site. But UVA plays in the ACC and has been talked up in the media as a contender a lot more than Michigan. So I think the fact that you didn't have Virginia as a 1-seed when things were blind (even though it was close) but afterwards you do is a very interesting development... and again, something interesting to consider when we think about whether or not this will impact the committee.
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