This Week in the ACC: 1/28-2/3

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

My post was only made because as a State fan I swore a blood oath to *@#$% about the refs after any loss (and half our wins) regardless of whether it was warranted or not. You may notice, not a single thing I said was actually a valid criticism.

You must spread some Comments around before commenting on PackMan97 again

I like the cut of your jib. Good attitude.

I was also very impressed that the Wolfpack fought back so gamely.

[CameronDuke]

Fair point, and welcome to the board.


I guess I was trying to give UVA the benefit of the doubt by blaming talent for the tournament lapses.

If it's not talent then what is it? Can't be coaching, Tony Bennet apparently invented defense if you listen to some pundits and admirers on DBR. 😂


It has just been too many years in a row of "this is virgina's year", or "this team is better than last year's" with the same post-season results. Call me a scorned lover, I've just been burned too many times on my bracket. When I started betting against UVA in the tournament, I started having more success. And pie. (Thanks Richard Jackson!)


UVA just reminds me of that kid that everyone had on their team growing up. He wasn't the most athletic, or physically dominating, but he was good enough to get playing time. Worked hard, knew the offense, could hit a shot if open, fundamentaly sound, etc. etc.

Then, that kid has to go up against a team of D1 prospects in the post-season and gets exposed. That's what it feels like happens to UVA in the tournament.


Just saying if it's not talent (anymore), and it's not coaching, then what is it? Bad luck? Bad bracket(s)?

Virginia was missing likely NBA lottery pick DeAndre Hunter when they lost to UMBC last year so maybe injuries could be an answer?

I'd offer style of play too. If they get down big in an elimination game, it's hard for their deliberate style of play to get them back in the game (see 20 point blowout to UMBC last year). Further, they (like anyone really) are very uncomfortable when taken out of their system or when a team gets hot (see Cuse game in 2016 elite eight when Virginia was up 15 with 9 minutes left and lost with a trip to the final four on the line).

If a team gets hot from 3, anyone can be beaten including Virginia.

Time will tell if Virginia can get to a final four or further this year. The NCAAT is simply a different animal. Their success in the toughest league in the nation (24-2 in last 26 ACC regular season games plus won the 2018 ACC Tournament title) tells me they are legitimate. Only a matter of time until it clicks in the NCAAT in my opinion.

[ChillinDuke]

Disagree. A State team when down by 14 to the best defensive program in the country would have collapsed and lost by 25. Not comeback and pushed it to overtime.

State still has issues, but having an abundance of NC State *@$#% is no longer one of them.

My guess is Beverly was hoping to draw a foul, but didn't. Either way, we had a shot to tie it and send it to a second OT...and then the FT's to tie it again. We had our chances.

Maybe. I obviously don't follow them as closely as you do. My sense is that when State gets into a close one, they can't handle the moment and just start jacking. Maybe that wasn't the case the entire game but it certainly was toward the middle of overtime when they took at least two threes that made no sense whatsoever in a one possession game. And it was certainly my perception of what they did in the UNC game down the stretch.

And there was no way I had confidence that Johnson would go 3-3 from the line either. Against Duke? For sure! He'd probably go 5-3 from the line somehow. But not against VA (and not against UNC).

That is my historical perception of the bar that NC State has struggled to clear to elevate back into the upper echelon of college hoops. And it's my perception to this day - although, objectively, Keatts is having a nice start. Didn't Gottfried have a nice start though, too?

- Chillin

[OldPhiKap]

Long-time lurker, first time poster with great respect for the site. Just quickly noting this take isn't really true as UVA's talent is higher than it used to be. Of the 8 players UVA used vs NCSU, 6 were ESPN top 100 recruits (Salt and Clark the outliers) and 4 of the 6 were top 50 (Guy, Jerome, Diakite, and Key though he was Braxton Blackwell when he committed to Alabama).

The underperformance in March is certainly fair, but blaming it on a lack of talent hasn't really been accurate in a while.

Great post and fully agree. Hope you post more often if the urge hits.

I would expect to be a slight underdog at UVA and rightly so.

[JasonEvans]

Just so we are clear, Tony Bennett is a 9-minute-meltdown/15-point-blown-lead away from having a Final Four under his belt and not having to answer these "why do you always flop in March?" questions. There is a degree of randomness to the Tourney that can lay bare the best laid plans. I am not going to bet against Virginia making a deep run this season.

[Troublemaker]

It has just been too many years in a row of "this is virgina's year", or "this team is better than last year's" with the same post-season results. Call me a scorned lover, I've just been burned too many times on my bracket. When I started betting against UVA in the tournament, I started having more success. And pie. (Thanks Richard Jackson!)

I believe Richard offered the same bet again this season with no takers, so when he gets around to reading your new offer, he'll be excited to go "double or nothing" with you.

Just saying if it's not talent (anymore), and it's not coaching, then what is it? Bad luck? Bad bracket(s)?

Bad luck in a small sample, I would say. I think 10 years from now, we won't be talking about UVA's struggles in the NCAA tournament.

[Matches]

Virginia was missing likely NBA lottery pick DeAndre Hunter when they lost to UMBC last year so maybe injuries could be an answer?

I'd offer style of play too. If they get down big in an elimination game, it's hard for their deliberate style of play to get them back in the game (see 20 point blowout to UMBC last year). Further, they (like anyone really) are very uncomfortable when taken out of their system or when a team gets hot (see Cuse game in 2016 elite eight when Virginia was up 15 with 9 minutes left and lost with a trip to the final four on the line).

If a team gets hot from 3, anyone can be beaten including Virginia.

Time will tell if Virginia can get to a final four or further this year. The NCAAT is simply a different animal. Their success in the toughest league in the nation (24-2 in last 26 ACC regular season games plus won the 2018 ACC Tournament title) tells me they are legitimate. Only a matter of time until it clicks in the NCAAT in my opinion.

The knock on UVa's system, aside from being boring, is that it disguises a lack of talent. Thus, the theory goes, they will struggle against top teams in the NCAAT because they get out-talented. That's well and good and, I think, somewhat valid - but it doesn't explain UMBC. Even without Hunter, UVa had FAR superior talent. They just pooped the bed. No excuse for losing that game, and IMO they can't be taken seriously unless and until they get to a Final 4.

The thing that bugs me is that UVa doesn't really have a talent gap anymore. They've got several future NBA players on that roster - but they're still playing the same boring system. It feels like four corners to me all over again - yea they're not breaking any rules, yea it works pretty well for them - but gross, who wants to watch that?

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

The knock on UVa's system, aside from being boring, is that it disguises a lack of talent. Thus, the theory goes, they will struggle against top teams in the NCAAT because they get out-talented. That's well and good and, I think, somewhat valid - but it doesn't explain UMBC. Even without Hunter, UVa had FAR superior talent. They just pooped the bed. No excuse for losing that game, and IMO they can't be taken seriously unless and until they get to a Final 4.

The thing that bugs me is that UVa doesn't really have a talent gap anymore. They've got several future NBA players on that roster - but they're still playing the same boring system. It feels like four corners to me all over again - yea they're not breaking any rules, yea it works pretty well for them - but gross, who wants to watch that?

I love watching UVa. Until this year, I was wildly jealous of their ability to field a defense. But, I also enjoy a good 10-7 football game.

If Bennett's style masks a talent gap, why on earth would he not continue to use the same system when his talent catches up to top tier programs?

[left_hook_lacey]

I love watching UVa. Until this year, I was wildly jealous of their ability to field a defense. But, I also enjoy a good 10-7 football game.

If Bennett's style masks a talent gap, why on earth would he not continue to use the same system when his talent catches up to top tier programs?

I think that is a catch-22. How high is the ceiling regarding talent that he can pull in with the system he uses? It's not a great selling point to young recruits in the Steph Curry and KD era.

But say that it is. Say Bennett lands a top 3 recruiting class in the coming years. He has a 5-star PG, SG, SF on the roster that were scoring machines in high school. How long before people get restless and start complaining that UVA isn't playing an uptempo, high possession, entertaining game like RJ and Zion?

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I think that is a catch-22. How high is the ceiling regarding talent that he can pull in with the system he uses? It's not a great selling point to young recruits in the Steph Curry and KD era.

But say that it is. Say Bennett lands a top 3 recruiting class in the coming years. He has a 5-star PG, SG, SF on the roster that were scoring machines in high school. How long before people get restless and start complaining that UVA isn't playing an uptempo, high possession, entertaining game like RJ and Zion?

If they are reaching Final Fours, winning ACC banners, and posting great records? Who cares?

I mean, did people kvetch about the Baltimore Ravens Super Bowl team powered by defense? Or the Pistons of the Bad Boy era?

(admittedly those are stretches, but you get the point... Winning staunches whining)

[robed deity]

My only question is, if you have great talent, wouldn't you want to maximize possessions?

[Matches]

If they are reaching Final Fours, winning ACC banners, and posting great records? Who cares?

I mean, did people kvetch about the Baltimore Ravens Super Bowl team powered by defense? Or the Pistons of the Bad Boy era?

(admittedly those are stretches, but you get the point... Winning staunches whining)

I hated the Pistons.

UNC did all three of those things with Four Corners, too, but it drained the fun from the game to such an extent that they actually changed the rules to get rid of it. Fun is in the eye of the beholder, of course - if you like watching UVa that's entirely your prerogative. I think it's dull, though, and given that UVa now has enough talent to compete straight-up with pretty much anyone, I wish they would.

[left_hook_lacey]

If they are reaching Final Fours, winning ACC banners, and posting great records? Who cares?

I mean, did people kvetch about the Baltimore Ravens Super Bowl team powered by defense? Or the Pistons of the Bad Boy era?

(admittedly those are stretches, but you get the point... Winning staunches whining)

True. I would assume the UVA purists wouldn't care how they get there, so long as they do.

I guess the point I'm trying to make is it would be a hard sell to get, and keep, 5 star talent with that system.

He's almost better off not getting top level talent. He gets away with tournament disappointment for now because of regular season success. If he lands top tier talent, and still continues to whiff in the tournament, the villagers will be at the gate a lot quicker.

[PackMan97]

Maybe. I obviously don't follow them as closely as you do. My sense is that when State gets into a close one, they can't handle the moment and just start jacking.

...

That is my historical perception of the bar that NC State has struggled to clear to elevate back into the upper echelon of college hoops. And it's my perception to this day - although, objectively, Keatts is having a nice start. Didn't Gottfried have a nice start though, too?

I think it's your sample size. State doesn't have that "killer instinct" by any means...and a lot of the games you mentioned are ones where we had to come from behind against experienced teams and didn't quite get over the hump.

Gottfried.../sigh. Please don't mention his name.

[CameronBlue]

If it's not talent then what is it? Can't be coaching, Tony Bennet apparently invented defense if you listen to some pundits and admirers on DBR. 😂

I won't negative sporkz you for the shot but I may send my grandkids over to egg your house.
(Assuming my actress daughter gives up on her career, gets married and has kids.) I just need the address thanks.

[W&LHoo]

True. I would assume the UVA purists wouldn't care how they get there, so long as they do.

I guess the point I'm trying to make is it would be a hard sell to get, and keep, 5 star talent with that system.

He's almost better off not getting top level talent. He gets away with tournament disappointment for now because of regular season success. If he lands top tier talent, and still continues to whiff in the tournament, the villagers will be at the gate a lot quicker.

I hear the criticism, but honestly, the system HAS changed on both ends of the floor. On defense the team is much more active and with the addition of Clark, we even put pressure on the ball across the entire floor. The team is also changing when and how we switch, double, and help. It looks similar because they're still packing the paint and hedging hard, but even there this is a (somewhat) different defensive look than we've had in years past. Might be the kinds of differences only a homer would notice, but I'm absolutely a UVA diehard, so I'll split hairs all day.

Additionally, some of the offensive criticism strikes me as hangover gripes about prior years' teams. UVA has been scoring in the 70s and 80s this year - we struggled against a good NCSt team in their gym and against Duke in Cameron, but we've mostly been blowing teams out: scoring at a good clip, and doing so right up until Bennett clears the bench. The team is scoring fast and at all levels, with exciting dunks and alley-oops, (generally) hot three point shooting, and all three upperclassmen guards driving the lane and scoring or making a pass for an assist.

As for post-season success, the ACCT is also a single elimination tournament and we've been doing very well. The NCAAs are a high variability environment and we're working from a small sample size. If UVA keeps knocking on the door, it'll open.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

True. I would assume the UVA purists wouldn't care how they get there, so long as they do.

I guess the point I'm trying to make is it would be a hard sell to get, and keep, 5 star talent with that system.

He's almost better off not getting top level talent. He gets away with tournament disappointment for now because of regular season success. If he lands top tier talent, and still continues to whiff in the tournament, the villagers will be at the gate a lot quicker.

Well, we are "getting" 5 star talent, but we sure aren't "keeping" it.

Having said all that, I'm willing to bet that regardless of the records between now and March, 95% of basketball fans would rather watch Duke and Zion play than UVA.

Certainly "appeal" plays a role. I suspect apropos of no data that this Duke team is the most fun to watch for non-Duke fans since... 1999? 1992?

[MChambers]

I hear the criticism, but honestly, the system HAS changed on both ends of the floor. On defense the team is much more active and with the addition of Clark, we even put pressure on the ball across the entire floor. The team is also changing when and how we switch, double, and help. It looks similar because they're still packing the paint and hedging hard, but even there this is a (somewhat) different defensive look than we've had in years past. Might be the kinds of differences only a homer would notice, but I'm absolutely a UVA diehard, so I'll split hairs all day.

Additionally, some of the offensive criticism strikes me as hangover gripes about prior years' teams. UVA has been scoring in the 70s and 80s this year - we struggled against a good NCSt team in their gym and against Duke in Cameron, but we've mostly been blowing teams out: scoring at a good clip, and doing so right up until Bennett clears the bench. The team is scoring fast and at all levels, with exciting dunks and alley-oops, (generally) hot three point shooting, and all three upperclassmen guards driving the lane and scoring or making a pass for an assist.

As for post-season success, the ACCT is also a single elimination tournament and we've been doing very well. The NCAAs are a high variability environment and we're working from a small sample size. If UVA keeps knocking on the door, it'll open.

I’ll give you the defensive changes or tweaks, but UVa is still last in the entire nation in tempo, so the offense isn’t going all that quickly.

[royalblue]

I still don't believe in VA. I made a pie bet last year that they wouldn't make it to the elite eight and I'm willing to make it again if anyone is interested.

Virginia is good, don't get me wrong. But they are a gimmick, smoke and mirrors team. They are the epitome of a coach using a system to get the absolute most out of his team and players. But when the bright lights come on, talent wins out eventually.

After more thought I’m absolutely willing to take the bet that UVA makes it to at least the elite eight

[CameronDuke]

The knock on UVa's system, aside from being boring, is that it disguises a lack of talent. Thus, the theory goes, they will struggle against top teams in the NCAAT because they get out-talented. That's well and good and, I think, somewhat valid - but it doesn't explain UMBC. Even without Hunter, UVa had FAR superior talent. They just pooped the bed. No excuse for losing that game, and IMO they can't be taken seriously unless and until they get to a Final 4.

The thing that bugs me is that UVa doesn't really have a talent gap anymore. They've got several future NBA players on that roster - but they're still playing the same boring system. It feels like four corners to me all over again - yea they're not breaking any rules, yea it works pretty well for them - but gross, who wants to watch that?

I don't buy the theory that they get out talented. Ty Jerome and DeAndre Hunter both will likely get drafted this June if they enter the NBA Draft. Kyle Guy is a poor man's JJ Redick. He can flat out rip it from deep. Jay Huff is a blossoming stud and NBA prospect. The ACC has some of the most talented teams in the country and Virginia is 24-2 in their last 26 games in the conference with an ACC Tournament title to show. They've flat out dominated, I mean absolutely owned the ACC the last two years. It's fair to criticize Bennett's lack of NCAA success. But when he finally gets to a final four, which he will eventually, and wins it all, it won't be that instantaeous moment that I call Virginia a legitimate program or have respect for their abilities. That is a program they have there.

Like, Shaka Smart and Loyola-Chicago's coach have made the final four. Are they better coaches than Tony Bennett? Heck no.