Originally Posted by
burnspbesq
In 2018, Duke came awfully close to picking up its fourth NCAA championship of the decade. Yale had other ideas, however, and the class of 2018 became the first class since 2009 to leave without rings.
Expectations for the 2019 season are sky-high, despite some obvious holes that may or may not have been successfully filled. Nearly every pre-season poll that matters has the Blue Devils at number two, behind only the defending champions (Quint sees them as third). Nothing is assured, obviously, but Duke certainly looks like it could be headed for Memorial Day again.
Who’s Gone
Duke loses only six players from last year’s regular rotation, but each leaves big shoes to fill.
First and foremost is 115-point scorer Justin Guterding. Gut was the heart and soul of last year’s squad, for reasons that went far beyond goals and assists. He was ferocious on the ride, never hesitated to stick his nose into a ground-ball scrum, led by example, and made every big play that needed to be made. No one is irreplaceable, but Gut comes close.
Also vacating the scene are four key members of the Blue Devils’ top-five defensive unit: goaltender Danny Fowler, defenseman Kevin McDonough, alpha LSM Greg Pelton, and valuable SSDM Sean Cerrone. Peter Conley split time between midfield and attack, contributing 28 goals.
Who’s Back
Duke is likely to feature a midfield-oriented offense in 2019, and the reason is clear: the Blue Devils return six of their top seven offensive mids, a group that combined for 94 goals last year. Brad Smith, a pre-season All-American whose 65-point season in 2018 tied for third best in school history, will lead the charge. Four other double-figure scorers return. On attack, Joe Robertson burst on the scene with a 48-goal freshman campaign, and he will be joined by junior Joey Manown.
At the back, the Blue Devils are led by two pre-season All-Americans at close defense, senior Cade van Raaphorst and junior J.T. Giles-Harris. The pair combined for 45 caused turnovers in 2018. Redshirt senior Peter Welch, an elite faceoff wing who scored three points and hoovered up 45 ground balls in 2018, returns at LSM, alongside SSDMs John Prendergast, Terry Lindsey, and Blake Leischow. Turner Uppgren, a capable backup for the last two seasons, returns in goal. Junior Brian Smyth and sophomore Joe Stein combined to win over 53 percent of faceoffs last season.
Who’s New
The Blue Devils welcome a freshman class ranked sixth by Inside Lacrosse, and welcome back two highly regarded 2017 recruits who were medical redshirts last season.
The newcomers are led by Wilson Stephenson, a rangy, physical defender from the Brunswick School in Connecticut, ranked number eight in the 2018 class by IL. He has a chance to start immediately. Midfielder Garrett Leadmon broke most of Paul Rabil’s DeMatha school records, while fellow freshman mid Owen Caputo (son of Duke assistant Ron Caputo) boasts an off-the-charts lacrosse IQ and a deep arsenal of offensive skills. Stephenson’s high school teammate Jordan Ginder gives the Blue Devils a third top-quality FOGO. Goaltenders Andrew Bonafede from Chaminade on Long Island and Garrett Smith from Mountain Lakes in New Jersey (both siblings of current Duke players) will push Uppgren for the starting Job. Redshirt freshman Cam Badour, a big Canadian lefty with Ontario Junior A box experience, will play somewhere, while fellow redshirt Raines Shamburger has a chance to step in either on close defense or at LSM.
What to Expect
Duke finished 2018 ranked fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency, and it’s likely that suffocating defense will be the team’s calling card in 2019. With two All-Americans at the back and one of the nation’s best d-mid groups, Duke will be hard to break down, especially with the shot clock as the group’s new best friend. On the other side of the ball, Duke has the depth to run three midfield units, and the athletes to force tempo. Without a dominant attackman to occupy the ball it’s likely that Duke will look to mids like Smith, Nakeie Montgomery, and Kevin Quigley to win their matchups and move the ball faster than opposing defenses can recover. If opposing defenses choose to slide inside-out, Robertson and Manown are likely to see a steady diet of point-blank opportunities. It’s likely to be FOGO-by-committee, and with elite wings Welch and Prendergast, Duke should have a possession advantage in most games.
The Annual Futile Attempt to Predict the Rotation
Goal: Uppgren has the inside track, but any of the three could end up winning the job
Close defense: Van Raaphorst and Giles-Harris are likely to be joined by Stephenson. Seniors Jack Fowler and Connor Alexander and freshman Frank Marinello will provide depth and may play on man-down.
LSM: Welch and Shamburger are likely to be the regular LSMs.
SSDM: Prendergast, Lindsey, and Leischow are likely to be joined by Leadmon, redshirt senior Jake Seau, or both (this assumes that the coaches’ response to the shot clock isn’t to run four groups of two-way midfielders, a la Albany).
Offensive mids: There has been talk in the media about Smith moving to attack, but I think he’s too valuable initiating from the top. Smith and Montgomery are likely to play on the same unit—they create extremely difficult matchup problems for opposing defenses running together—but beyond that, it’s anyone’s guess. Caputo will play right away.
Attack: I expect Badour to start alongside Robertson and Manown. To me, his floor looks like Jack Bruckner, and his ceiling looks like Zack Greer.
The Blue Devils open on February 2 at Furman, the first of three consecutive games against SoCon opposition, before the non-conference schedule gets dramatically more difficult, with Denver, Penn, Richmond, and Loyola over a four-week period. Utah and Towson come to town before ACC play starts on March 24 at the Dome. A trip to Chapel Hill follows, before home games against ND and UVa. A neutral-site game against Marquette precedes the expanded ACC tournament (all five teams get to compete for the championship, and the final is pushed back a week). The traditional Selection Sunday meeting with Boston University is no more.