Phase IV: Georgia Tech through Louisville

[robed deity]

Listening to David Glenn today, (don't particularly like him, but hey, sometimes I like sports radio) and he keeps basically saying Duke is an upset waiting to happen if the perimeter shooting stays as is. And if it improves, they are the team to beat. Seems overly simplistic to me, but sometimes I wonder if it really is that simple with this team.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Listening to David Glenn today, (don't particularly like him, but hey, sometimes I like sports radio) and he keeps basically saying Duke is an upset waiting to happen if the perimeter shooting stays as is. And if it improves, they are the team to beat. Seems overly simplistic to me, but sometimes I wonder if it really is that simple with this team.

That's basically true of every team, is it not? Shooting fails you, too. And there have been Final Four teams that have been bad at shooting the ball. I like that this Duke team does not have to rely on shooting to win the game. Teams have been using a zone to varying degrees of success, and yet Duke keeps winning by 20, 30 points a game.

[Kedsy]

I feel decent about Duke's chances in Cameron and less so in Chapel Hill.

It's worth noting that in the Duke/UNC rivalry, home advantage doesn't mean so much. In the last 20 years, for example, Duke is 13-7 against UNC in Cameron, and 11-9 in Chapel Hill.

In the same 20 year span, the higher ranked team has gone 15-5 at home and 14-6 on the road. Like I say, not much difference.

[Kedsy]

Listening to David Glenn today, (don't particularly like him, but hey, sometimes I like sports radio) and he keeps basically saying Duke is an upset waiting to happen if the perimeter shooting stays as is. And if it improves, they are the team to beat. Seems overly simplistic to me, but sometimes I wonder if it really is that simple with this team.

It's not.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

It's worth noting that in the Duke/UNC rivalry, home advantage doesn't mean so much. In the last 20 years, for example, Duke is 13-7 against UNC in Cameron, and 11-9 in Chapel Hill.

In the same 20 year span, the higher ranked team has gone 15-5 at home and 14-6 on the road. Like I say, not much difference.

yes, this is a rivalry where there is so much pressure to defend the home court, that the visitors do very well. I like the games in Chapel Hill more for that reason...a chance to steal one instead of feeling pressure to defend the home....

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Listening to David Glenn today, (don't particularly like him, but hey, sometimes I like sports radio) and he keeps basically saying Duke is an upset waiting to happen if the perimeter shooting stays as is. And if it improves, they are the team to beat. Seems overly simplistic to me, but sometimes I wonder if it really is that simple with this team.

Yeah, that's a shallow "no duh" analysis...Glenn has regressed mightily from his early days, when his show was far and away the best show for all things ACC and all things Carolina Hurricanes. Now he's into this ESPN emphasis on pro sports - lotta NBA - and he fills up his three hours by having about 30 minutes worth of comments that he repeats about 6 times. He's mailing it in - and his commentary is not nearly as sharp. 10-12 years ago he would have never had such a lazy take on one of the Big Four teams.

[superdave]

Was just checking out RJ's advanced stats on Basketball Reference - https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb...duke/2019.html

He has an eFG% of .501 and a usage rate of 33.1%. That seems to be abnormally low efg% and an abnormally high usage rate. Here's some past Duke guys to compare to -

Barrett .501 eFG% 33.1 USG%
Zion .704 28.1
Bagley .640 26.3
Tatum .507 26.2
Ingram .525 25.6
Grayson (soph) .554 26.8
Parker .511 32.7

Parker is the closest comp with over 30 usage. Parker played a much slower pace though, which probably makes his numbers and that team stand out as particularly stagnant.

On a podcast this week, Kevin O'Connor on the Ringer said Barrett has hurt his draft stock because he has blinders. Hard to disagree with that when RJ is dribbling into a crowd with his head down twice a game. Hopefully he can get his efficiency up or his assist rate up!

[Jeffrey]

On a podcast this week, Kevin O'Connor on the Ringer said Barrett has hurt his draft stock because he has blinders. Hard to disagree with that when RJ is dribbling into a crowd with his head down twice a game.

I'll disagree and still wager RJ is the 2nd (or 1st) pick. Interested?

[Troublemaker]

yes, this is a rivalry where there is so much pressure to defend the home court, that the visitors do very well. I like the games in Chapel Hill more for that reason...a chance to steal one instead of feeling pressure to defend the home...

A lot of it is just that the away team gets to sleep in its own bed and follow a familiar home gameday routine despite being "on the road" (a short bus ride away). With some anecdotal exceptions*, there is virtually no homecourt advantage when Duke plays UNC.

* I think maybe in '98, a shallow but great UNC team wilted in Cameron's heat at that time.

[CDu]

Was just checking out RJ's advanced stats on Basketball Reference - https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb...duke/2019.html

He has an eFG% of .501 and a usage rate of 33.1%. That seems to be abnormally low efg% and an abnormally high usage rate. Here's some past Duke guys to compare to -

Barrett .501 eFG% 33.1 USG%
Zion .704 28.1
Bagley .640 26.3
Tatum .507 26.2
Ingram .525 25.6
Grayson (soph) .554 26.8
Parker .511 32.7

Parker is the closest comp with over 30 usage. Parker played a much slower pace though, which probably makes his numbers and that team stand out as particularly stagnant.

On a podcast this week, Kevin O'Connor on the Ringer said Barrett has hurt his draft stock because he has blinders. Hard to disagree with that when RJ is dribbling into a crowd with his head down twice a game. Hopefully he can get his efficiency up or his assist rate up!

I don’t think Barrett is ever going to have a high eFG%. At least not while he is at Duke. He was just too poor a shooter coming in, and is basically replicating those percentages now. Unless he just completely stops shooting perimeter shots and focuses on better shooting decisions off the dribble, his eFG% just isn’t likely to improve in the span of 1-2 months. What concerns me more is his low TS% (which takes into account FT attempts). Where Barrett lived in high school was in transition and drawing fouls/finishing off drives to the basket. But at the ACC level, defenders are bigger and faster, defenses in general are way more prepared, and officiating is way better (scary thought, but true). So he isn’t finishing in traffic as well and he isn’t drawing as many fouls.

This unfortunately isn’t unusual. Harrison Barnes went through this even worse when he went to college (Barrett is a better ballhandler and way more aggressive, which helps lessen the effect).

It is worth noting that Barrett is a terrific rebounder, a willing though not superlative yet defender, and a solid passer. So he is still a REALLY good player. But it is hard to see him becoming a superstar at the next level with a jumper that bad, as his ballhandling and passing aren’t good enough to carry him at that level. That is probably where O’Connor was going with his analysis.

Barrett is still almost certainly a top-3 pick this year, and probably top-2. And he can still be a really good NBA player even if the jumper doesn’t materialize. A guy like Jimmy Butler comes to mind, who just worked and worked and worked his way to stardom. So it isn’t like he has torpedoed his stock completely. Little and Reddish have fallen off much more so than Barrett.

[Billy Dat]

($) http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...-+-other-items
One (ACC) assistant coach said. "We played the 2015 national champion Blue Devils twice that year with three one-and-dones. That team can't hold this team's jock in terms of ability. It's not even close."

[Jeffrey]

Barrett is still almost certainly a top-3 pick this year, and probably top-2. And he can still be a really good NBA player even if the jumper doesn’t materialize. A guy like Jimmy Butler comes to mind, who just worked and worked and worked his way to stardom. So it isn’t like he has torpedoed his stock completely. Little and Reddish have fallen off much more so than Barrett.

If Barrett goes 2nd, then how has he "torpedoed his stock" any? IMO, Zion is a generational talent and almost certainly the 1st pick.

Kevin O'Connor on the Ringer said Barrett has hurt his draft stock because he has blinders. Hard to disagree with that...

IMO, it's easy to disagree with that, if Barrett is still very likely to go 2nd. IMO, he recently looked solid against UVA in a very difficult role.

[CDu]

If Barrett goes 2nd, then how has he "torpedoed his stock" any? IMO, Zion is a generational talent and almost certainly the 1st pick.

Sorry, my wording was bad. I was more or less agreeing with what you've said here.

I do think Barrett's stock has fallen some, as I think it's now possible he could fall to #3 based on the concerns about his offense as it translates to the NBA. But it has not fallen substantially more than it would have if he'd been more efficient, because Zion would have overtaken him anyway.

[Troublemaker]

($) http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...-+-other-items
One (ACC) assistant coach said. "We played the 2015 national champion Blue Devils twice that year with three one-and-dones. That team can't hold this team's jock in terms of ability. It's not even close."

Disagree with that coach. It's close. I'm not even convinced this team is better than 2015 yet, and I need that Feb / March data to know. And I don't mean that this team needs to win the national championship to be better (single-elimination tournament, afterall), but many of Duke's toughest games are still to come. I kind of want to know how this team fares vs UNC x 2, @ UVA, @ Lville, etc

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Disagree with that coach. It's close. I'm not even convinced this team is better than 2015 yet, and I need that Feb / March data to know. And I don't mean that this team needs to win the national championship to be better (single-elimination tournament, afterall), but many of Duke's toughest games are still to come. I kind of want to know how this team fares vs UNC x 2, @ UVA, @ Lville, etc

Well, the caveat was "talent." I would agree that the talent on this squad is absurd and unparalleled by any Duke team in, oh, 40 years at least.

[Ian]

Disagree with that coach. It's close. I'm not even convinced this team is better than 2015 yet, and I need that Feb / March data to know. And I don't mean that this team needs to win the national championship to be better (single-elimination tournament, afterall), but many of Duke's toughest games are still to come. I kind of want to know how this team fares vs UNC x 2, @ UVA, @ Lville, etc

It maybe true in terms of athleticism and physical ability. It's certainly isn't true in terms of skills, particularly shooting skill. That team shot 38.7% from 3 and 39.9% in ACC play. On an average of 20 3PAT per game that team will score 6 more points on 3's alone.

[Kedsy]

Well, the caveat was "talent." I would agree that the talent on this squad is absurd and unparalleled by any Duke team in, oh, 40 years at least.

No Duke team has ever had three of the top 5 recruits in the country, plus a couple others ranked in the top 15. I'm not sure any team ever has had that.

[budwom]

Sorry, my wording was bad. I was more or less agreeing with what you've said here.

I do think Barrett's stock has fallen some, as I think it's now possible he could fall to #3 based on the concerns about his offense as it translates to the NBA. But it has not fallen substantially more than it would have if he'd been more efficient, because Zion would have overtaken him anyway.

yeah, Barrett does a lot of things well, can't see him falling much at all...he's all of 18 years old and is still a compelling force on the court, even if he has a few flaws.

[COYS]

Disagree with that coach. It's close. I'm not even convinced this team is better than 2015 yet, and I need that Feb / March data to know. And I don't mean that this team needs to win the national championship to be better (single-elimination tournament, afterall), but many of Duke's toughest games are still to come. I kind of want to know how this team fares vs UNC x 2, @ UVA, @ Lville, etc

I definitely agree that the whole story needs to be told for the 2019 team before we can say whether or not it was better than the 2015 team.

That being said, I don't think it is at all a stretch to say that the 2019 team has been better and much more consistent up to this point in the season. If you compare T-Rank's game scores (a 99 game score means that the team performed like a team from the 99th percentile) between 2015 and 2019, 2015 had a few more clunkers than 2019 has had. In fact, it's hard to say that 2019 has actually had a true clunker, yet (knock on wood). The two worst game scores for the 2019 team are the 79 they had against Army (the worst performance of the season by efficiency metrics) and the 80 against Syracuse when we were without Cam for the whole game and Tre for the vast majority. That's it. Even in the loss to Gonzaga, the team still put up a 94 game score.

The 2015 team, on the other hand, had a 78 early in the season also against Army (hmmm . . .), a pedestrian 82 in a win over Elon, a 75 in the January loss @NC State, a 48(!) in the infamous home loss to Miami, and an 84 in a home win over GaTech. All of those are lower than any thing the 2019 team has done save for the 79 in the Army game if we are willing to discount the Syracuse game due to the injury to Tre and Cam's illness.

The 2015 team went on to scrape out an overtime win @VaTech despite posting a poor (for a contender) 68 game score before losing to the Irish in the ACCT while posting a 64 game score.

So, I'd say that it is reasonable to argue that the 2019 is better and more consistent than the 2015 to this point in the season. And it's definitely ok for all of us fans to be really excited about how the team has performed, so far. They haven't accomplished anything as special as the 2015 team, yet, but I love the trajectory.

[CDu]

Disagree with that coach. It's close. I'm not even convinced this team is better than 2015 yet, and I need that Feb / March data to know. And I don't mean that this team needs to win the national championship to be better (single-elimination tournament, afterall), but many of Duke's toughest games are still to come. I kind of want to know how this team fares vs UNC x 2, @ UVA, @ Lville, etc

To be fair, the coach said "ability", not "performance." Though I'd note that, in terms of performance, this year's team has substantially outplayed the 2015 team. Just looking Torvik's game score season average, this year's team has been north of 95 since about game 5 of the season, and has just three games below a 94 all season (just one below 80 and none below 75). At the same point, the 2015 squad had 6 games below 90, with 3 of them below 80 and one of them below 50, and their average was at about 91.5.

And of course one of our two sub-94 games was with us missing two starters (Syracuse). So between the fact that this year's team has outplayed (in terms of game score) the 2015 team and that it was a subjective comment about the team's ability (which I read as "talent") from someone who faced both teams, I think it's a fair argument.