Phase IV: Georgia Tech through Louisville

[Saratoga2]

We're at the halfway point of this phase, so I wanted to do a quick progress report on how things have gone.

Health: we got Tre Jones back to begin the phase. That has been glorious. So far, so good in terms of everyone else's health. As of now, we've passed this one with flying colors. Let's hope that continues.

More Zion please! This is one area that is a work in progress. In the first game (Ga Tech), Barrett led all players in usage. But he was having a very efficient game himself, so no big deal. In the next two games, Barrett wasn't terribly efficient but still took as many possessions as Williamson (when you account for both FGA and FTA). So I'd like to see Williamson getting even more involved. Now, he's already involved a LOT, but I feel like we should be going through our best player at least a bit more than our second best player.

Barrett's efficiency: It was great against Ga Tech, scoring 24 points on just 16 FGA. It was poor against Notre Dame and St John's, scoring just 1 point per FGA in each game, and needing 8 FT attempts (going 3 of 8) to get there against St. John's. And he's had 8 assists to 12 turnovers over those 3 games. Now, Barrett is still contributing to be sure. He's averaged 11.3 rebounds per game and led or tied for the team lead in rebounds each game. So he's obviously a critical component of the team's success. But I think we are nearing a "he is what he is" point in terms of his efficiency. Let's hope things perk up for him in the second half of this phase and the second half of the season.

The fourth freshman: Reddish has continued to confound. He couldn't hit shots at all against Ga Tech or Notre Dame, going a combined 4-24 from the field for just 20 total points. Then he was pretty solid against St. John's, going 4-10 (all 3s) and scoring 16 points. He has, however, shown better playmaking skills overall, with 12 assists to just 5 turnovers in this 3-game stretch. And he's been a defensive menace, picking up 8 steals. So he's starting to contribute in other ways on offense, but he's still an enigma as a scorer. Hopefully he can get things to click soon.

The juniors, part A(ussie): Well, so far it has been a rough phase for White. He is 0-4 from the field (0-3 on 3s) with 0 assists and 2 turnovers. He's still rebounding and making hustle plays (13 rebounds, 2 blocks, 2 steals in 35 total minutes), but his offensive game has cratered. This was on the heels of going 4-22 from the field (1-18 from 3) over his previous 5 games means that in his last 8 games he's 4-26 from the field (1-21 from 3). I'm not sure what is going on, but clearly he is out of sorts. And as a result, he's averaging just 11.7 mpg in this phase so far. Now, he's not a dynamic offensive player, and he's pretty much a catch-and-shoot player on wide-open 3s only. But he's fallen to 7th/8th in the rotation in this phase. Let's hope he can bounce back.

The juniors, part B(olden): Bolden suffered a toe injury fairly early in the Ga Tech game, though he was having a quiet day to that point. But he bounced back in a big way against Notre Dame and St John's, averaging 9 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks per 23 mpg in those two games. He's become a very steady presence in the middle on both ends. It's a pleasure to see what appears to be the game finally slowing down for him as a junior.

The juniors, part D(eLaurier): DeLaurier barely saw the floor against Ga Tech, as he was passed over for Vrankovic in that one. In the subsequent two games, he's given 7 points, 8 rebounds and just 4 fouls over 24 total minutes. Nothing world-altering, but he's been a functional backup for Bolden these past two games. It seemed early in the season like the light was coming on. At this point, I'll be pleased if he can continue his 10-15 mpg of functional backup big performances.

Ohhhhh-Connell: He was active and looked the part against Ga Tech in 19 minutes. Then he knocked down his 2 shots from 3 against Notre Dame. Then he had a quiet game against a physical St. John's team. So, still kind of kicking the can down the curb here. But I think the Ga Tech game was a good sign from him. Even though he didn't hit 3s, he played well in the flow of the game.

Establishing our place in the ACC: We have gone 2-0 in conference with two comfortable wins over bottom-feeders. That's the goal. Hopefully we can continue that trend tomorrow. Then the fun begins: at UVa and at Louisville. Those two will be a great litmus test of the team's progress. Win those and we move into the catbird's seat for the ACC regular season title.

With your point by point rundown of those playing, you seemed to neglect mentioning Tre's contribution. He, along with Zion and RJ have been our three most important players. Tre's defensive contributions are well knnown and have continued where he left off before the injury but I have also noticed a subtle shift where he is also contributing points with his mid range game and an occasional three. Thats a good thing for us now as AOC, Jack and Delaurier as showing little while Cam is enigmatic as a scorer. Would that our scoring would become a little more consistent and broad based.

[kAzE]

With your point by point rundown of those playing, you seemed to neglect mentioning Tre's contribution. He, along with Zion and RJ have been our three most important players. Tre's defensive contributions are well knnown and have continued where he left off before the injury but I have also noticed a subtle shift where he is also contributing points with his mid range game and an occasional three. Thats a good thing for us now as AOC, Jack and Delaurier as showing little while Cam is enigmatic as a scorer. Would that our scoring would become a little more consistent and broad based.

I believe CDu did not talk about Tre (though he was mentioned in the health section), because there's nothing wrong with the way we are using Tre. There's no way to improve upon what he's doing, because he's already doing exactly what he should be doing. I honestly don't think there's much more we can ask from the guy. (Whereas Zion could probably do even more, and RJ should probably be doing a little bit less)

Tre's met every expectation and exceeded most of them. Would be nice if he could continue to improve that 3 point percentage, and obviously stay healthy, but otherwise, he's playing his role perfectly.

I think the goal of the phase post is to track the team's progress, and Tre has been on cruise control since day 1. Nothing really to report, other than the fact that he's back from his injury.

[CDu]

With your point by point rundown of those playing, you seemed to neglect mentioning Tre's contribution. He, along with Zion and RJ have been our three most important players. Tre's defensive contributions are well knnown and have continued where he left off before the injury but I have also noticed a subtle shift where he is also contributing points with his mid range game and an occasional three. Thats a good thing for us now as AOC, Jack and Delaurier as showing little while Cam is enigmatic as a scorer. Would that our scoring would become a little more consistent and broad based.

I believe CDu did not talk about Tre (though he was mentioned in the health section), because there's nothing wrong with the way we are using Tre. There's no way to improve upon what he's doing, because he's already doing exactly what he should be doing. I honestly don't think there's much more we can ask from the guy. (Whereas Zion could probably do even more, and RJ should probably be doing a little bit less)

Tre's met every expectation and exceeded most of them. Would be nice if he could continue to improve that 3 point percentage, and obviously stay healthy, but otherwise, he's playing his role perfectly.

I think the goal of the phase post is to track the team's progress, and Tre has been on cruise control since day 1. Nothing really to report, other than the fact that he's back from his injury.

Yes, what kAzE said is a big part, along with the fact that this was a “midterm” report on the Phase post questions. The Phase post only asked “when will Jones be back?” So, all there was to report at this point was that he was back which is great.

If I had known Jones would have returned immediately in this Phase, I would have probably added questions about the development of his shooting or something like that. But when I posted originally his return was still unknown. So all of his play in this Phase is essentially gravy with respect to the Phase post.

And honestly, what he is giving is pretty close to perfection for this team. So it is not a sexy topic in a Phase post.

[-jk]

Yes, what kAzE said is a big part, along with the fact that this was a “midterm” report on the Phase post questions. The Phase post only asked “when will Jones be back?” So, all there was to report at this point was that he was back which is great.

If I had known Jones would have returned immediately in this Phase, I would have probably added questions about the development of his shooting or something like that. But when I posted originally his return was still unknown. So all of his play in this Phase is essentially gravy with respect to the Phase post.

And honestly, what he is giving is pretty close to perfection for this team. So it is not a sexy topic in a Phase post.

I consider having Tre back a yuge win this phase!

(Regardless of anything he may need to work on...)

-jk

[Tappan Zee Devil]

You must spread some Comments around before commenting on CDu again.

[CDu]

I consider having Tre back a yuge win this phase!

(Regardless of anything he may need to work on...)

-jk

Yessir!

[Nugget]

Forget which thread it was that had the discussion of predictions of the likelihood we come through the tough 6 game stretch after BC with multiple losses, but ESPN has a piece this morning noting that it is the toughest regular season stretch for any team this year:

"To call it tough would be underselling the six-game stretch that awaits the Blue Devils at the end of this week. Toughest is better, because that's what it literally is. The toughest scheduled six-game stretch. For any team. At any point this season. ... Duke has just a 7 percent chance of coming out of the stretch unscathed, according to BPI, and a 64 percent chance of picking up multiple losses."

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...6-game-stretch

[kAzE]

Forget which thread it was that had the discussion of predictions of the likelihood we come through the tough 6 game stretch after BC with multiple losses, but ESPN has a piece this morning noting that it is the toughest regular season stretch for any team this year:

"To call it tough would be underselling the six-game stretch that awaits the Blue Devils at the end of this week. Toughest is better, because that's what it literally is. The toughest scheduled six-game stretch. For any team. At any point this season. ... Duke has just a 7 percent chance of coming out of the stretch unscathed, according to BPI, and a 64 percent chance of picking up multiple losses."

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...6-game-stretch

never-tell-me-the-odds.jpg

[BandAlum83]

Forget which thread it was that had the discussion of predictions of the likelihood we come through the tough 6 game stretch after BC with multiple losses, but ESPN has a piece this morning noting that it is the toughest regular season stretch for any team this year:

"To call it tough would be underselling the six-game stretch that awaits the Blue Devils at the end of this week. Toughest is better, because that's what it literally is. The toughest scheduled six-game stretch. For any team. At any point this season. ... Duke has just a 7 percent chance of coming out of the stretch unscathed, according to BPI, and a 64 percent chance of picking up multiple losses."

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...6-game-stretch

I was about to post a rant about typos and editing and proofreading of news articles, when I stopped to just verify what I thought, when lo and behold, I learned something today at age 57.

The gantlet is coming for Duke.

To call it tough would be underselling the six-game stretch that awaits the Blue Devils at the end of this week. Toughest is better, because that's what it literally is. The toughest scheduled six-game stretch. For any team. At any point this season. Past or present.

In the words of Spock:

"Fascinating!"

Gantlet, Gauntlet

These two words, despite their similarity, come from different roots. The distinction should be preserved.

The expression run the gantlet means "to undergo criticism or harassment from several sources in a concentrated period of time." It is often written run the gauntlet, which makes language nitpickers cry foul.

To throw down the gauntlet is to aggressively challenge someone. To take up the gauntlet is to accept such a challenge.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Didn't exactly know where to put this, so here goes.

Duke faces its toughest stretch of the season starting this Saturday with a trip up to Virginia for the rematch against the Cavaliers. That begins a tough slate of games that will determine the course of the regular season for this squad.

@ Virginia
@ Louisville
vs. NC State
vs. UNC
@ Syracuse
@ Virginia Tech

Gulp. I saw an interesting twitter thread from David Hess, who helps run TeamRankings.com. Based on the TR predictive model, Hess gave the odds for Duke over this stretch of games:

6-0: 13%
5-1: 35%
4-2: 34%
3-3: 15%
2-4: 4%
1-5: <1%
0-6: 0%

Hess also provided the odds based on the kenpom rankings, where Virginia is #1 and Duke #2 (Duke is #1 in the TeamRankings model):

6-0: 9%
5-1: 31%
4-2: 36%
3-3: 19%
2-4: 5%
1-5: <1%
0-6: 0%

This helps validate my expectations for this stretch of the season. I was thinking the game at Virginia and the game at VA Tech will be toughest. If Duke wins the other 4 games (no small task), that still includes some impressive wins and keeps the team in contention for a #1 Seed in the NCAA Tournament. If Duke goes 5-1 or 6-0, then we can pretty much guarantee a #1 Seed and probably the top seed in the ACC Tournament (Virginia will still have to play at UNC, after all).

[Billy Dat]

Duke faces its toughest stretch of the season starting this Saturday with a trip up to Virginia for the rematch against the Cavaliers. That begins a tough slate of games that will determine the course of the regular season for this squad.

I saw an ESPN+ piece that identified this as the toughest stretch of the season any D1 team will play this year. Bring the noise!

[DavidBenAkiva]

I saw an ESPN+ piece that identified this as the toughest stretch of the season any D1 team will play this year. Bring the noise!

I believe it! Tennessee has a tough stretch of games ahead, but hard to say it is as difficult as this one for Duke.

2/16 @ Kentucky
2/19 vs. Vanderbilt (non-tournament team)
2/23 @ LSU
2/27 @ Ole Miss
3/2 vs. Kentucky
3/5 vs. Mississippi State
3/9 @ Auburn

6 of those 7 games are Quadrant 1 games with the lone game against Vanderbilt being a "breather" before finishing the season with those 5 games. It would not surprise me if Tennessee, who hasn't played anyone in almost 2 months appears to stumble to the end of the regular season, especially if they lose both games to Kentucky. In reality, it may be that Tennessee was just not tested for a long time.

[robed deity]

I believe it! Tennessee has a tough stretch of games ahead, but hard to say it is as difficult as this one for Duke.

2/16 @ Kentucky
2/19 vs. Vanderbilt (non-tournament team)
2/23 @ LSU
2/27 @ Ole Miss
3/2 vs. Kentucky
3/5 vs. Mississippi State
3/9 @ Auburn

6 of those 7 games are Quadrant 1 games with the lone game against Vanderbilt being a "breather" before finishing the season with those 5 games. It would not surprise me if Tennessee, who hasn't played anyone in almost 2 months appears to stumble to the end of the regular season, especially if they lose both games to Kentucky. In reality, it may be that Tennessee was just not tested for a long time.

That's a rough stretch. They'll at least split with Kentucky, and then probably drop 2 more. I wouldn't be surprised to see Kentucky make a play for a number one seed, especially now that Michigan St is floundering.

[kmspeaks]

Didn't exactly know where to put this, so here goes.

Duke faces its toughest stretch of the season starting this Saturday with a trip up to Virginia for the rematch against the Cavaliers. That begins a tough slate of games that will determine the course of the regular season for this squad.

@ Virginia
@ Louisville
vs. NC State
vs. UNC
@ Syracuse
@ Virginia Tech

Gulp. I saw an interesting twitter thread from David Hess, who helps run TeamRankings.com. Based on the TR predictive model, Hess gave the odds for Duke over this stretch of games:

6-0: 13%
5-1: 35%
4-2: 34%
3-3: 15%
2-4: 4%
1-5: <1%
0-6: 0%

Hess also provided the odds based on the kenpom rankings, where Virginia is #1 and Duke #2 (Duke is #1 in the TeamRankings model):

6-0: 9%
5-1: 31%
4-2: 36%
3-3: 19%
2-4: 5%
1-5: <1%
0-6: 0%

This helps validate my expectations for this stretch of the season. I was thinking the game at Virginia and the game at VA Tech will be toughest. If Duke wins the other 4 games (no small task), that still includes some impressive wins and keeps the team in contention for a #1 Seed in the NCAA Tournament. If Duke goes 5-1 or 6-0, then we can pretty much guarantee a #1 Seed and probably the top seed in the ACC Tournament (Virginia will still have to play at UNC, after all).

I think I can live with 4-2 as long as one of those 2 doesn't come on Feb 20th.

[CDu]

Worth noting how much of the toughness of the upcoming schedule lies in the first game. If we win that one, the outlook changes dramatically. We have a 65% chance of beating Louisville, a 94% chance of beating State, an 81% chance of beating UNC, an 80% chance of beating Syracuse, and a 61% chance of beating Va Tech. We'd then have a 24% chance of getting through the 6-game stretch unscathed, and probably a 50+% chance of getting through it 5-1 or better.

Winning Saturday is a huge opportunity on many levels, including maintaining control of our own destiny in the ACC regular season race.

[BandAlum83]

UNC is starting to worry me. They seem to be putting the pieces together and are rounding into a strong team. I don't know if the Louisville embarrassment was an anomaly or a wake up call, but either way they seem to be rolling since.

UGH!

[CDu]

UNC is starting to worry me. They seem to be putting the pieces together and are rounding into a strong team. I don't know if the Louisville embarrassment was an anomaly or a wake up call, but either way they seem to be rolling since.

UGH!

I am not too worried about them beating us. I don’t think they have the athleticism or ball handling to match up with us. We exploit what they do poorly really well. Could they win? Yes, especially if they get hot from 3. But I feel like the probability is pretty low. And probably lower even than what models based on efficiency margin would suggest.

I think UNC is more of a threat to UVa than to us.

[DavidBenAkiva]

UNC is starting to worry me. They seem to be putting the pieces together and are rounding into a strong team. I don't know if the Louisville embarrassment was an anomaly or a wake up call, but either way they seem to be rolling since.

UGH!

I don't know, they got blown out by Michigan, too. But they always play Duke tough. I feel decent about Duke's chances in Cameron and less so in Chapel Hill.

They have such a cupcake schedule this year in the ACC. Only play UVA once at the Dean Dome, Virginia Tech once at home, once at home against Florida State. Just pathetically soft.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I don't know, they got blown out by Michigan, too. But they always play Duke tough. I feel decent about Duke's chances in Cameron and less so in Chapel Hill.

They have such a cupcake schedule this year in the ACC. Only play UVA once at the Dean Dome, Virginia Tech once at home, once at home against Florida State. Just pathetically soft.

THE CURSE OF THE SWOFF! Merely coincidence I know...

[bullettoothtony]

UNC is starting to worry me. They seem to be putting the pieces together and are rounding into a strong team. I don't know if the Louisville embarrassment was an anomaly or a wake up call, but either way they seem to be rolling since.

UGH!

No question about it. They're playing like a machine offensively. Defensively not so much, but that's not unusual for them.

R.J. and Zion should be matchup nightmares for them, but they are elite at scoring.

I get no joy out of saying this, but if we don't keep them off the boards, the best we'll do is split with them.

Their league road schedule is much more favorable and that's a significant advantage for them. Plus they get Virginia in Chapel Hill right after Virginia's Super Bowl--us (and I think the same thing happened in '15 and '17).