Phase IV: Georgia Tech through Louisville

[Kedsy]

Bolden has definitely made some strides as a rebounder in recent games.

I agree Marques has made strides as a defensive rebounder, but he still has a ways to go. His current season DR% is 12.2%, meaning he has moved from 2nd-worst defensive rebounding Duke center in history (last 33 years, anyway) to 3rd-worst. His conference DR% (meaning his last six games) is 14.3% which would still be bottom 10 in Duke center history. But I guess any progress is moving forward.

[Wander]

Regarding the necessity of shooting to winning championships, going back 25 years, there were more national champions who shot under 35% from three (2013 Louisville (33.3% from three); 2011 UConn (32.9%); 2003 Syracuse (34.4%); 1999 UConn (34.4%); and 1995 UCLA (34.1%)) than there were champions who shot over 40% from three (2018 Villanova (40.1%); 2007 Florida (40.9%); 2005 UNC (40.3%); and 2004 UConn (40.2%)).

Putting aside the fact that we only have 25 datapoints, what's the difference between 35% and the way Duke shoots? Duke currently takes an average of 24.8 three-pointers per game. At that quantity, the difference between shooting Duke's current 31.2% and 35% is just one (1) made three per game. I'm not sneering at 3 points -- in a close game against a strong opponent, three points can be a huge difference -- but to make up the difference you'd only have to make two more two-point baskets than normal (taking free throws out of the equation for the moment). This year's team is currently Duke's best two-point shooting team in history (or at least since the three-point shot began in 1987), at 58.8%. We shoot 42.2 twos per game, and at that quantity we'd make three more twos than, for example, the 2017 UNC team (that shot 35.5% from three), more than wiping out the three point advantage they had on made threes.

Also, it's worth noting that since they invented the three-point shot in 1987, six of the worst ten Duke teams in three-point shooting pct have made the Elite Eight or better.

(It may also be worth noting that none of them have been as bad as this year's team -- the worst three-point shooting team in Duke history shot 34.9% in 2009 -- but again, the difference between this year's team and, for example, the 2004 Final Four team that shot 36.4% from three is 1.2 made threes a game and this year's team's two-point percentage advantage gives them an additional 2.7 made twos per game, more than making up the difference.) <-- all these calculations are assuming Duke's current pace, so while the numbers may change slightly, the analysis should be pace-independent

You're twisting yourself into knots trying to convince yourself that our poor shooting isn't an important weakness. I agree, our offense is still excellent, and on average our two point shooting strength overcomes our three point shooting weakness. I don't think many people are trying to say that our offense is bad overall, though. The weakness is that we may have a specific match-up against a very good defensive team that is better at defending twos than threes (like Michigan State) and not be able to take full advantage of it. Or that we're in a specific game-time situation that calls for a three point shot (or good free throw shooting).

That said, I am hopeful that we will shore up this weakness as Cam gets better throughout the rest of the season. And we don't have anyone who is as much of a weak link as Duval was last year. And even without improving the weakness, I still think we are the favorite to win the title. But the shooting woes keep us from being the overwhelming favorite that we would be otherwise (first world problem, I know).

[Saratoga2]

[QUOTE=CDu;1119997]


The juniors, part D(eLaurier): The other half of our two-headed center monster isn’t faring as well of late. Now, it is surely tough to be effective in a very limited role, but it would be really nice if we didn’t have games like DeLaurier’s UVa game (5 fouls, one rebound credited to Reddish, and nothing else in 7 minutes) popping up from time to time. He’s really struggling at the moment, averaging 1.3 points, 1 rebound, 0.8 blocks and 3.3 fouls in 11 minutes per game over his last four games. We thankfully haven’t needed much more from him in those. But it would be nice if we could trust him for a solid 15-20 minutes per game as needed, because there are likely to be games in which Bolden can’t go 30 minutes due to fouls or ineffectiveness. DeLaurier’s biggest issue is that he’s just too foul-prone. He’s still averaging over 7 fouls per 40 minutes. That inability to avoid contact is really limiting what he can do. To be clear: DeLaurier is elite at blocking shots and rebounding, and very very good at getting steals. But that does little good if he can’t stay on the floor. Here’s hoping he can cut down his foul rate a bit in this phase and provide solid backup center minutes. He was looking really promising back in December and early January, but has regressed a bit. Let's hope he can bounce back, because if he does he gives us the flexibility (with Bolden) to handle any type of center a team can throw at us. I am wondering what has caused Javin to regress as I think we all have noticed. He always had foul issues but they seem more pronounced of late. Are his recent issues due to the recent games have been against solid ACC teams with larger, stronger and more athletic front courts? Alternatively, has his issues coincided more with the temporary loss of Tre Jones? I believe it is more the former and that Javin, while being quick and athletic is not that strong and has troubles against the better teams.

Ohhhh-Connell: The ups and downs of Alex O’Connell have been evident as well. Kid can shoot, and is capable of highlight-reel drives to the basket as well. But his court awareness and perhaps his bball IQ leave a little to be desired. Especially on defense, but even at times on offense (see the shot clock violation against UVa). That being said, O’Connell is the one guy who I can confidently say is a shooter on this team (White is a close second there, but there are doubts). His ability to spread the floor could come in handy if he can avoid those WTF moments and not be a liability on defense. Unfortunately, that hasn’t quite happened for him yet. Will this phase be an opportunity for him to settle in and gain confidence? Or will he remain a shaky player not suited for more than a handful of minutes in close games? Now, don’t get me wrong: he’s not going to suddenly become a major part of the rotation. But if he can establish himself as a guy Coach K can trust as the 8th man for more than spot minutes (say, a more consistent 10-15 mpg role), that would give us a lot more breathing room with regards to foul trouble as the opponents get better. Here’s hoping the lightbulb goes off for him somewhat during this phase. I have long thought that AOC has the height, athleticism and quickness to give the team more than he has over the recent past. He has nice shooting form and a good handle to get him into a position to put pressure on the opponents defense. Perhaps its lack of game awareness has limited his effectiveness or perhaps his personality is deferential and he has trouble making aggressive plays. Whatever the reasons, he certainly hasn't become a reliable player and that doesn't even speak to his defense. He may well have the most potential as a 3 point shooter, but I doubt we will see him find himself this season.

[Nugget]

[QUOTE=CDu;1119997] The fourth freshman: It has been an odd season for Cam Reddish. Coming in, he had a reputation as being a highly-skilled player who didn’t always make the most of said skills. And, to be honest, that’s kind of what we’ve seen from him. There have been definite glimpses of his talent, and he certainly looks the part physically. But the overall impact on the offensive end has come and gone from time to time despite being one of the highest-usage players around (using nearly 1/3 of the possessions when he is in there). The team is elite as is, but the team will become a supernova if Reddish can tap into his potential more consistently. Right now, he’s really struggling off the dribble, which makes him primarily a 3pt shooter. And he isn’t good enough a shooter to be solely a 3pt threat. To find that next gear, he needs to figure out how to get it going off the dribble. If he does, that will take pressure off of Williamson and Barrett and make us that much more dynamic on the floor. That said, his defense has been terrific, which is fantastic considering that it would be easy to let his struggles on offense affect the rest of his game. Kudos to him for not letting that happen. Here’s hoping he finds his rhythm offensively in the near future.

I'd be concerned that Cam may not be able to "figure out how to get it going off the dribble," as the last two games following his "breakout" at FSU have been replete with the same off-the-dribble problems he was having before -- e.g., 1 or 2 careless unforced TOs per game, regular shove-offs trying to beat smaller players off the dribble, 1 or 2 charges per game due to the kind of head-down/lack of vision drives that someone had linked to examples of earlier in the season (which I think reasonably suggested some of Cam's off-the-dribble problems are not entirely "lack of focus" or "lack of confidence" as often surmised here, but more mechanics driven -- stuff he may have been able to get away with in HS but can't now that everyone's quicker on D), inability to use a jump stop to avoid charges, and his general problems finishing due to lack of strength.

It might be better for the team going forward for RJ, Zion (and Tre, when he's back) to be the ones "getting it going off the dribble," and have Cam focus more on spot-up shooting/receiving kickouts from those other three -- if his role on this team is as a super-deluxe 3 & D guy, that would be fantastic for the team.

[CDu]

I'd be concerned that Cam may not be able to "figure out how to get it going off the dribble," as the last two games following his "breakout" at FSU have been replete with the same off-the-dribble problems he was having before -- e.g., 1 or 2 careless unforced TOs per game, regular shove-offs trying to beat smaller players off the dribble, 1 or 2 charges per game due to the kind of head-down/lack of vision drives that someone had linked to examples of earlier in the season (which I think reasonably suggested some of Cam's off-the-dribble problems are not entirely "lack of focus" or "lack of confidence" as often surmised here, but more mechanics driven -- stuff he may have been able to get away with in HS but can't now that everyone's quicker on D), inability to use a jump stop to avoid charges, and his general problems finishing due to lack of strength.

It might be better for the team going forward for RJ, Zion (and Tre, when he's back) to be the ones "getting it going off the dribble," and have Cam focus more on spot-up shooting/receiving kickouts from those other three -- if his role on this team is as a super-deluxe 3 & D guy, that would be fantastic for the team.

This is a completely reasonable concern. Reddish does seem to have a high and loose dribble. That combined with not being acclimated to the college game speed, organization, and physicality is I think the cause of what we are seeing. So, the question becomes does he figure out the speed/physicality of the game? Or, does he tighten up the dribble? If the answer to both is no, then I would agree that having him be a spot-up shooter and guy who attacks closeouts is best.

[Kedsy]

You're twisting yourself into knots trying to convince yourself that our poor shooting isn't an important weakness.

Perhaps more accurately, I've been attempting to convince others that it isn't a fatal weakness. Clearly, it's the biggest weakness we have (with defensive rebounding being our 2nd biggest weakness). The question is with everything else we do well, how much does that matter?

[CDu]

Perhaps more accurately, I've been attempting to convince others that it isn't a fatal weakness. Clearly, it's the biggest weakness we have (with defensive rebounding being our 2nd biggest weakness). The question is with everything else we do well, how much does that matter?

Right. I don’t think anyone can seriously say that shooting isn’t a concern. It is all a matter of how grave that concern is. Like you, I think it bears monitoring. But given that we are so dominantly in virtually every other facet of the game, I am not sure how nervous I should feel about the fact that we stink at shooting.

I feel like too many people are making the mistake of viewing this team through the prism of past Duke teams. Well, quite simply, this team isn’t anything like our other Duke teams this decade. Frankly, it is a better team at this point in the season than any Duke team I can remember since probably 2006, and maybe since 2002. And that is incredible given how inexperienced this group is.

But more to the point, focusing on how poor a shooting team we are is ignoring how much better this team is at other aspects of the game than we are used to: 2pt shots, shot blocking, forcing turnovers, forcing missed shots, offensive rebounding. It is just so much better an all-around team at this stage than we have had in a long time - certainly so in the one-and-done era. So to panic about 3pt shooting when we are so amazing at nearly everything else seems misplaced to me.

[azzefkram]

Are you just basing this on your own eye test? Obviously Javin is no Tre Jones, but he's still pretty quick for a 6'10" guy. Against Virginia, when Javin was in the game, we were able to play a switching man to man defense pretty effectively, but had to resort to zone once he fouled out. Luckily, UVA missed some open shots and we were able to get enough stops with the zone, but I personally think Javin is mobile enough to defend on the perimeter. He just needs to stop fouling.

Mostly eye test since solid defensive metrics aren't readily available to the general public. Against Virginia, Javin couldn't even stay on the floor. I don't think you can consider someone to be an effective defender if they foul out in 7 minutes. For what it's worth, the plus-minus thread had both Marques and Javin at +1. While Javin's per minute number was better, he also didn't have any AOC time which dinged Marques.

[MartinNessley]

I think you're putting too much stock in the Virginia win, and that these wins are fool's gold to an extent.

Agree to disagree. I hope I'm wrong. But I doubt it.

Anyone who plays the pessimist with THIS team really should just leave sports to those of us that enjoy it.

[Nugget]

Right. I donÂ’t think anyone can seriously say that shooting isnÂ’t a concern. It is all a matter of how grave that concern is. Like you, I think it bears monitoring. But given that we are so dominantly in virtually every other facet of the game, I am not sure how nervous I should feel about the fact that we stink at shooting.

I feel like too many people are making the mistake of viewing this team through the prism of past Duke teams. Well, quite simply, this team isnÂ’t anything like our other Duke teams this decade. Frankly, it is a better team at this point in the season than any Duke team I can remember since probably 2006, and maybe since 2002. And that is incredible given how inexperienced this group is.

But more to the point, focusing on how poor a shooting team we are is ignoring how much better this team is at other aspects of the game than we are used to: 2pt shots, shot blocking, forcing turnovers, forcing missed shots, offensive rebounding. It is just so much better an all-around team at this stage than we have had in a long time - certainly so in the one-and-done era. So to panic about 3pt shooting when we are so amazing at nearly everything else seems misplaced to me.

I agree completely. Personally, I think it's just that we're a bit spoiled by the memory of what happened when everything (including the 3pt shooting) came together against Kentucky. We just need to be reconciled to that kind of shooting night being the aberration and re-center on all the other things you note that make this team extraordinary in every other facet except outside shooting.

[gofurman]

I agree completely. Personally, I think it's just that we're a bit spoiled by the memory of what happened when everything (including the 3pt shooting) came together against Kentucky. We just need to be reconciled to that kind of shooting night being the aberration and re-center on all the other things you note that make this team extraordinary in every other facet except outside shooting.

No no jinx.

I don't think it is negative to point out its outside shooting and FT shooting. We are great, but those are relative weaknesses - get healthy Tre !!!

[jv001]

Mostly eye test since solid defensive metrics aren't readily available to the general public. Against Virginia, Javin couldn't even stay on the floor. I don't think you can consider someone to be an effective defender if they foul out in 7 minutes. For what it's worth, the plus-minus thread had both Marques and Javin at +1. While Javin's per minute number was better, he also didn't have any AOC time which dinged Marques.

Neals latest +/- for the Pitt game certainly proved my eye test to be correct. Marques was the leader in +/- with Javin and Alex the worst in that category. I know the +/- angle is not the say all but to me it was in this game. I have not seen anything in Javin's game over the 2+ years that say he is a better than average college player. But I do think that the light might go off in his head any game that proves me wrong. He needs to improve his strength in body and with his hands. He has too much wasted motion and it could come from over thinking instead of reacting. He's a junior for crying out loud. I hate to sound negative about any Duke player and like I said he may prove me wrong, but I'll believe it when I see it. However I will be rooting for Javin to prove me wrong. Lance Thomas sure proved me wrong. GoDuke!

[FerryFor50]

I agree Marques has made strides as a defensive rebounder, but he still has a ways to go. His current season DR% is 12.2%, meaning he has moved from 2nd-worst defensive rebounding Duke center in history (last 33 years, anyway) to 3rd-worst. His conference DR% (meaning his last six games) is 14.3% which would still be bottom 10 in Duke center history. But I guess any progress is moving forward.

I also think it's tough to put a ton of stock into Marques' rebounding against a vastly undersized Pitt team that rolls out a 4 guard starting lineup. Those are rebounds he *should* have gotten.

[kAzE]

I also think it's tough to put a ton of stock into Marques' rebounding against a vastly undersized Pitt team that rolls out a 4 guard starting lineup. Those are rebounds he *should* have gotten.

Good point, I wasn't trying to put out some sort of definitive analysis. I just wanted to call attention to how he's actually pursuing out of area rebounds lately, which hasn't been a strength of his to this point. Overall as a rebounder, he's still not where he SHOULD be as a 7 footer with the longest wingspan in Duke history. But I think he's improving.

Right. I don’t think anyone can seriously say that shooting isn’t a concern. It is all a matter of how grave that concern is. Like you, I think it bears monitoring. But given that we are so dominantly in virtually every other facet of the game, I am not sure how nervous I should feel about the fact that we stink at shooting.

I feel like too many people are making the mistake of viewing this team through the prism of past Duke teams. Well, quite simply, this team isn’t anything like our other Duke teams this decade. Frankly, it is a better team at this point in the season than any Duke team I can remember since probably 2006, and maybe since 2002. And that is incredible given how inexperienced this group is.

But more to the point, focusing on how poor a shooting team we are is ignoring how much better this team is at other aspects of the game than we are used to: 2pt shots, shot blocking, forcing turnovers, forcing missed shots, offensive rebounding. It is just so much better an all-around team at this stage than we have had in a long time - certainly so in the one-and-done era. So to panic about 3pt shooting when we are so amazing at nearly everything else seems misplaced to me.

You're right on all counts, but I'm actually not convinced this is our baseline in terms of shooting. IMO, this is about as bad as it's going to get. Jack and Cam are still both having brutal slumps. I KNOW they can shoot better than this. Especially Cam, who often decides to take off-balance shots for no reason when he's wide open. He just needs to take his time and go straight up with it. If they can both heat up at the same time, this team could be unbeatable. We just need them to get hot for 6 games in March . . .

[CDu]

You're right on all counts, but I'm actually not convinced this is our baseline in terms of shooting. IMO, this is about as bad as it's going to get. Jack and Cam are still both having brutal slumps. I KNOW they can shoot better than this. Especially Cam, who often decides to take off-balance shots for no reason when he's wide open. He just needs to take his time and go straight up with it. If they can both heat up at the same time, this team could be unbeatable. We just need them to get hot for 6 games in March . . .

It's certainly plausible that we can improve. I'm not sure what to expect from Reddish at this point. Same for White. It's not like we have any sort of track record for White as a shooter. I mean, they certainly may improve. But if they are a 35% shooter in reality? That's not really notably different than what they are currently providing. They'd need to be closer to 40% to really move the needle for the team overall in terms of our shooting quality.

But, I agree, we're probably not likely to shoot much - if at all - worse than this.

As for the need for "hot" shooting, I'd say we don't "need" anything. But if anything, I'd say we'd need them to be hot for at most the last 2-3 games in March/April. We certainly shouldn't need hot shooting to get to the Sweet-16, and I don't know that we'd need every game thereafter to have a hot shooting night for us to advance. I realize though that this is nitpicky as I suspect you were just tossing that last sentence out as a loose concept rather than a firm assessment of need. Just wanted to clarify that though: this team has a floor that should be enough to get them into the second weekend of the season if healthy. From there, it's a matter of matchups and focus and avoiding foul trouble, even without 3pt shooting. But if we have the 3pt shooting in any of those games, we border on unbeatable.

[FerryFor50]

Good point, I wasn't trying to put out some sort of definitive analysis. I just wanted to call attention to how he's actually pursuing out of area rebounds lately, which hasn't been a strength of his to this point. Overall as a rebounder, he's still not where he SHOULD be as a 7 footer with the longest wingspan in Duke history. But I think he's improving.



You're right on all counts, but I'm actually not convinced this is our baseline in terms of shooting. IMO, this is about as bad as it's going to get. Jack and Cam are still both having brutal slumps. I KNOW they can shoot better than this. Especially Cam, who often decides to take off-balance shots for no reason when he's wide open. He just needs to take his time and go straight up with it. If they can both heat up at the same time, this team could be unbeatable. We just need them to get hot for 6 games in March . . .

What's stood out to me beyond the stats is Bolden's overall energy level and effort. Earlier in the season, we'd see spurts of hustle (like the Auburn game) sprinkled in between lethargic showings. In the last two games, his activity level has been great - he's even diving after loose balls (though I'd prefer a 7 foot, 250lb big not do that).

That kind of effort usually translates into good things when you're that big. Unless you're wildly flailing like Javin does on occasion. Then it turns into fouls.

[kAzE]

It's certainly plausible that we can improve. I'm not sure what to expect from Reddish at this point. Same for White. It's not like we have any sort of track record for White as a shooter. I mean, they certainly may improve. But if they are a 35% shooter in reality? That's not really notably different than what they are currently providing. They'd need to be closer to 40% to really move the needle for the team overall in terms of our shooting quality.

But, I agree, we're probably not likely to shoot much - if at all - worse than this.

As for the need for "hot" shooting, I'd say we don't "need" anything. But if anything, I'd say we'd need them to be hot for at most the last 2-3 games in March/April. We certainly shouldn't need hot shooting to get to the Sweet-16, and I don't know that we'd need every game thereafter to have a hot shooting night for us to advance. I realize though that this is nitpicky as I suspect you were just tossing that last sentence out as a loose concept rather than a firm assessment of need. Just wanted to clarify that though: this team has a floor that should be enough to get them into the second weekend of the season if healthy. From there, it's a matter of matchups and focus and avoiding foul trouble, even without 3pt shooting. But if we have the 3pt shooting in any of those games, we border on unbeatable.

This is not true . . . I think they definitely will improve. Jack has been 1 for 18 over the last 5 games. That's 5.5%. Cam has been 16/62 over the last 9 games he's played (25.8%).

All I'm asking for is 35%. If those 2 guys average 35% or better, this is far and away the best team in the country.

[Neals384]

What's stood out to me beyond the stats is Bolden's overall energy level and effort. Earlier in the season, we'd see spurts of hustle (like the Auburn game) sprinkled in between lethargic showings. In the last two games, his activity level has been great - he's even diving after loose balls (though I'd prefer a 7 foot, 250lb big not do that).

That kind of effort usually translates into good things when you're that big. Unless you're wildly flailing like Javin does on occasion. Then it turns into fouls.

Can't spork you but agree Bolden is now showing an aggressive nose for the ball that wasn't always there before.

[BandAlum83]

This is not true . . . I think they definitely will improve. Jack has been 1 for 18 over the last 5 games. That's 5.5%. Cam has been 16/62 over the last 9 games he's played (25.8%).

All I'm asking for is 35%. If those 2 guys average 35% or better, this is far and away the best team in the country.

Cam Reddish currently stands at 34.4% on the season.

Jack White currently stands at 31.9% on the season.

So the OP is correct when stating “that’s not notably different then what they are currently providing.”

[kAzE]

Cam Reddish currently stands at 34.4% on the season.

Jack White currently stands at 31.9% on the season.

So the OP is correct when stating “that’s not notably different then what they are currently providing.”

He said currently, not 1 month ago. Not over the entire season. Maybe CDu meant "on the season", but currently (at present time), they both are struggling.