Tracking the ACC regular season race

[CDu]

To distill it down to simple terms:
- Win 1 game and we're assured of the double bye
- Win 2 games and we're assured of at least the 3 seed
- Win 3 games and we're assured of at least the 2 seed

[dukelifer]

To distill it down to simple terms:
- Win 1 game and we're assured of the double bye
- Win 2 games and we're assured of at least the 3 seed
- Win 3 games and we're assured of at least the 2 seed

Maybe better as a 4 than a three. Duke seems to match up better with UVA. But looks like another showdown with UNC should UVa win out.

[wgl1228]

So our only shot at winning regular season is if we win out and UVA loses a game correct? UVA will beat GT and Pitt at home this week, but maybe Cuse or Louisville can beat them next week.

[CDu]

So our only shot at winning regular season is if we win out and UVA loses a game correct? UVA will beat GT and Pitt at home this week, but maybe Cuse or Louisville can beat them next week.

More or less correct. If we win out, we'll need UVa to lose once more. That would give us a share (at least a 3-way, if not 2-way) of the ACC regular season and the #1 seed.

There are scenarios in which we could lose once and still win the ACC regular season, but they are fairly unlikely. Basically, the most realistic scenario would be us winning 2 of 3, including a win at UNC. Then we'd need UVa to lose to both Louisville and Syracuse, and we'd need UNC to lose @Clemson.

[ndkjr70]

To distill it down to simple terms:
- Win 1 game and we're assured of the double bye
- Win 2 games and we're assured of at least the 3 seed
- Win 3 games and we're assured of at least the 2 seed

UVA plays two cupcakes, and then has a game @ Syracuse and home against Louisville.

The fact that they avoided playing @FSU and @UNC really stinks for us. I wonder if a team has ever won the ACC outright even though they got swept by another conference opponent.

Unbalanced schedules are the dumbest thing in the world.

There's very little difference, for me, between the 2 and the 3 seed; though I would prefer to not play a 6-or-7 seed Louisville with revenge on their mind.

[DarkstarWahoo]

UVA plays two cupcakes, and then has a game @ Syracuse and home against Louisville.

The fact that they avoided playing @FSU and @UNC really stinks for us. I wonder if a team has ever won the ACC outright even though they got swept by another conference opponent.

Unbalanced schedules are the dumbest thing in the world.

There's very little difference, for me, between the 2 and the 3 seed; though I would prefer to not play a 6-or-7 seed Louisville with revenge on their mind.

Hoos won at UNC. We didn't get them at home.

[CDu]

UVA plays two cupcakes, and then has a game @ Syracuse and home against Louisville.

The fact that they avoided playing @FSU and @UNC really stinks for us. I wonder if a team has ever won the ACC outright even though they got swept by another conference opponent.

Unbalanced schedules are the dumbest thing in the world.

There's very little difference, for me, between the 2 and the 3 seed; though I would prefer to not play a 6-or-7 seed Louisville with revenge on their mind.

UVa actually DID play at UNC. They didn't get to play UNC at home.

[jv001]

UVA plays two cupcakes, and then has a game @ Syracuse and home against Louisville.

The fact that they avoided playing @FSU and @UNC really stinks for us. I wonder if a team has ever won the ACC outright even though they got swept by another conference opponent.

Unbalanced schedules are the dumbest thing in the world.

There's very little difference, for me, between the 2 and the 3 seed; though I would prefer to not play a 6-or-7 seed Louisville with revenge on their mind.

For some reason, I thought the Hoos had to play at the cheats on short rest. There was some arguing about whether the travel to Chapel Hell was tough on them. GoDuke!


CDu was once again too quick with his fingers.

[CDu]

For some reason, I thought the Hoos had to play at the cheats on short rest. There was some arguing about whether the travel to Chapel Hell was tough on them. GoDuke!

Yes. The Hoos played at Chapel Hill less than two days after playing at home against us, with both Jerome and Diakite being limited by injury. They managed to overcome those injuries and the "grueling" 3-hour bus trip to get the win on the road.

[ndkjr70]

Hoos won at UNC. We didn't get them at home.

Ah, I knew that. Still, my point was they only played UNC once and only played FSU at home. That stinks for Duke. And I think it's ridiculous that the ACC still can't figure out how to have a balanced conference schedule.

[CDu]

And I think it's ridiculous that the ACC still can't figure out how to have a balanced conference schedule.

Well, the only way for that to happen is to have a 28-game ACC regular season. Which would mean virtually no out of conference games, as the NCAA has a limit on games played in a season. And even still I'd imagine folks would complain about when the games against certain teams were scheduled. With an 18-game conference schedule limit, there's virtually no way to account for all possible permutations of unbalance.

[akg4y]

Ah, I knew that. Still, my point was they only played UNC once and only played FSU at home. That stinks for Duke. And I think it's ridiculous that the ACC still can't figure out how to have a balanced conference schedule.

We also had to play a full strength Duke twice, the team that just beat you twice, the team that was leading by 25 against you twice, and the other team that just beat you on the road two nights after playing you. We don't get two games against Wake Forest. Tell me again about the unbalanced schedule?

The unbalanced schedule talk is just excuses by whichever team ends up second or third. If anything UNC had the easiest schedule of anyone... But just win the games you're supposed to and it doesn't matter.

[DarkstarWahoo]

Ah, I knew that. Still, my point was they only played UNC once and only played FSU at home. That stinks for Duke. And I think it's ridiculous that the ACC still can't figure out how to have a balanced conference schedule.

FSU was home-only, yes, but literally every other decent-to-good ACC team - Chapel Hill, Syracuse, NC State, Clemson - was road-only for UVA if they didn’t play them twice (Duke, VT, Louisville). They’ve got three Saturday-Monday turnarounds with all three Monday games on the road. It’s a tough schedule no matter how you slice it. The only way to remedy the minor imbalance you describe is to have Duke not play UNC twice (LOL) or have UVA play them twice every year (which I’d love to see).

I’ve posted this elsewhere here, but based on the future ACC schedules that have been released, out of the five schools that appear most likely to sustain success moving forward - UVA, Duke, UNC, Syracuse and Louisville - only Cuse doesn’t have one of the other five as a permanent partner. That’s the imbalance to watch moving forward.

[ndkjr70]

We also had to play a full strength Duke twice, the team that just beat you twice, the team that was leading by 25 against you twice, and the other team that just beat you on the road two nights after playing you. We don't get two games against Wake Forest. Tell me again about the unbalanced schedule?

The unbalanced schedule talk is just excuses by whichever team ends up second or third. If anything UNC had the easiest schedule of anyone... But just win the games you're supposed to and it doesn't matter.

I agree that UNC had the easiest schedule. I think UVA is a fantastic basketball team. I'm disappointed because UNC/UVA played eachother once. Had they played eachother twice, Duke would likely control it's destiny for the ACC Regular Season title (assuming a split). At the very least, it would've handed UNC another loss and cemented them behind Duke in the battle for a 1-seed in the NCAAs.

Duke has been on the good-side of this coin a few times (last year, I think was one of those times). It's just frustrating. And I'm airing those frustrations on a Duke Basketball Message Board.

[Stray Gator]

We also had to play a full strength Duke twice . . . .

Actually, I'm pretty sure that when Virginia played at Duke, the Blue Devils were not at full strength.

[akg4y]

I agree that UNC had the easiest schedule. I think UVA is a fantastic basketball team. I'm disappointed because UNC/UVA played eachother once. Had they played eachother twice, Duke would likely control it's destiny for the ACC Regular Season title (assuming a split). At the very least, it would've handed UNC another loss and cemented them behind Duke in the battle for a 1-seed in the NCAAs.

Duke has been on the good-side of this coin a few times (last year, I think was one of those times). It's just frustrating. And I'm airing those frustrations on a Duke Basketball Message Board.

But that's the thing you're only looking at what would help Duke but not at what *did* help Duke, which is the two cupcake games against Wake. At full strength most people here would agree I think that the order of the top 5 ACC teams is Duke, UVA, UNC, VT, Louisville.

Duke had/has to play 2 & 3 twice, 4 & 5 on the road. That's six games and the seventh was an extra game against Wake, one of the 2 worst teams in the ACC.

UVA had/has to play 1, 4, & 5 twice and 3 on the road for their 7 games.

Those are hardly different, if anything one could argue that UVAs was harder even with only one game against UNC. Difference is just that as of now we have only lost to the one team above us.

More important than the schedule differences is just that you've had injuries. I have no doubt you beat both UNC and VT if Zion was playing.

[CDu]

More important than the schedule differences is just that you've had injuries. I have no doubt you beat both UUNC and VT if Zion was playing.

Agree with your take on the schedules. I'd also note that we'd have no doubt beaten Syracuse if Reddish and Jones had played. I feel even more strongly about that than about beating UNC if Zion had played, actually.

[jv001]

Agree with your take on the schedules. I'd also note that we'd have no doubt beaten Syracuse if Reddish and Jones had played. I feel even more strongly about that than about beating UNC if Zion had played, actually.

I think the cheat game at Chapel Hell is going to be hard for Duke to win even if Zion plays. I think he'll have to get rid of the rust from not playing. There's practice and then there's game speed. That's one reason, I think our bench doesn't contribute many points when called upon. But I have little doubt that we beat Cuse with Cam and Tre. GoDuke!

[CDu]

I think the cheat game at Chapel Hell is going to be hard for Duke to win even if Zion plays. I think he'll have to get rid of the rust from not playing. There's practice and then there's game speed. That's one reason, I think our bench doesn't contribute many points when called upon. But I have little doubt that we beat Cuse with Cam and Tre. GoDuke!

I think it is too bad that Zion didn't get to play more in the UNC game. One of UNC's advantages is that they play a style that is not replicated by anyone else we face. I think that - along with the Zion injury - made for a tougher game, as our guys weren't ready for the UNC approach. At least everyone else will be ready. But Zion won't have had that game's worth of experience at that pace and with their relentless effort on the glass.

I'm hopeful that Zion will play either Saturday or against Wake before the UNC game, though. That would help shake off the rust. But he'll still be dealing with the "first time he's faced UNC" issue.

[UrinalCake]

I posted this in another thread, but feel like it bears repeating. The conference matchups, with teams shown from top to bottom of the ACC standings:

           CHeats  UVA   Duke
CHeats:      -      R     x2
UVA:         H      -     x2
Duke:        x2     x2    -
VT:          H      x2    R
FSU:         H      H     R
Cuse:        H      R     x2
Lville:      x2     x2    R
NCSU:        x2     R     H
Clemson:     R      R     H
BC:          R      R     H
Miami:       x2     H     H
GT:          R      H     H
Wake:        R      H     x2
ND:          H      x2    R
Pitt:        R      H     R

Of the top six teams other than us, the CHeats play each of them once and at home. Meanwhile, all of our home-only matchups are against the bottom of the conference.

I haven't given up hope of us winning the regular season. Win out and hope UVA takes a loss. Their game at Syracuse will be a borefest in the 40's and the outcome could totally swing off of a single made three. Louisville has the talent to beat them as well. It really helps that we hold the tie breaker over UVA (which means we indirectly have it over UNC as well, because if we tie with them then it comes down to each team's record against UVA).