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  1. #21
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    New Jersey
    Quote Originally Posted by BandAlum83 View Post
    Attachment 9004

    Their overall record and winning percentage is better.
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    overall record. ESPN doesn't implement the tie-breaks for each conference.
    Yeah, well, I'm not impressed!
    Rich
    "Failure is Not a Destination"
    Coach K on the Dan Patrick Show, December 22, 2016

  2. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    ...and Miami.

    Yeah, that is what the ACC is this year. There are very few easy games in the league with at least 8 tourney teams and a few more who are knocking on the door. That said, I still think Duke and UVA come through all this with no more than 3 losses each.
    If Duke wins in Charlottesville next weekend, I'm not so sure about that. We have a tough turnaround just 2 nights later @UNC, and a bevy of tough contests thereafter. I think UVA will drop more than 1 game post Duke-return-game.

  3. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by Wahoo2000 View Post
    If Duke wins in Charlottesville next weekend, I'm not so sure about that. We have a tough turnaround just 2 nights later @UNC, and a bevy of tough contests thereafter. I think UVA will drop more than 1 game post Duke-return-game.
    UVA. Please beat unc. No jinx

  4. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by Wahoo2000 View Post
    If Duke wins in Charlottesville next weekend, I'm not so sure about that. We have a tough turnaround just 2 nights later @UNC, and a bevy of tough contests thereafter. I think UVA will drop more than 1 game post Duke-return-game.
    I don't think UVa beats the cheats, as much as it pains me. They'll invest way too much into the Duke game build up, and the game itself, win or lose - to be able to recover in two days. Swofford scheduling strikes again...
    Don't waste your time on House of Cards S6!
    -We found out Frank was critical to making anyone else in the show interesting...not a surprise...

  5. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by HereBeforeCoachK View Post
    I don't think UVa beats the cheats, as much as it pains me. They'll invest way too much into the Duke game build up, and the game itself, win or lose - to be able to recover in two days. Swofford scheduling strikes again...
    I'm not going as far as to predict a loss, but I think on normal rest we'd be a legit 2-4pt favorite, even on the road. With the Duke game only 48 hours prior? Feels like a pick 'em, maybe UNC -1

  6. #26
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    New Orleans, Louisiana
    Today I discovered the existence of ACC Power Rankings from a pair of fansites. ACCSports.com posted theirs Monday, and Streaking the Lawn released theirs today.

    Both sites compile the opinions of multiple contributors and try to stay current from week to week. All admirable. But what I don't get is that each contributor's rankings are basically lifted from the win-loss standings; at most you'll see a mild variation, usually when a pair of teams are tied. What's the point of this exercise? If DBR were to assemble a weekly Power Rankings, I'd like to think that voters would take the unbalanced schedules into account. Almost all ACC teams have played 8 conference games so far, but those 8-game slates are far from equal. (I take some comfort in noticing that while UNC has only played two teams who currently have a winning conference record, and played them both at home, they still managed a 21-point win and a 21-point loss.)

    Which leads to my question: how do you take unbalanced schedules into account? Is there a statistical metric in existence that can adjust a team's conference record based on strength of schedule? Many of the stat sources that are cited here look at the season as a whole, and don't limit themselves to conference play.

    If done meaningfully, a weekly ACC Power Rankings thread might be a nice complement to pfrduke's This Week in the ACC posts.

  7. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by brevity View Post
    Which leads to my question: how do you take unbalanced schedules into account? Is there a statistical metric in existence that can adjust a team's conference record based on strength of schedule? Many of the stat sources that are cited here look at the season as a whole, and don't limit themselves to conference play.
    Torvik allows you a conference-games only view. I bet Pomeroy has something similar behind the paywall (though I'm not a subscriber, so I don't know for sure).

  8. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by brevity View Post
    Today I discovered the existence of ACC Power Rankings from a pair of fansites. ACCSports.com posted theirs Monday, and Streaking the Lawn released theirs today.

    Both sites compile the opinions of multiple contributors and try to stay current from week to week. All admirable. But what I don't get is that each contributor's rankings are basically lifted from the win-loss standings; at most you'll see a mild variation, usually when a pair of teams are tied. What's the point of this exercise? If DBR were to assemble a weekly Power Rankings, I'd like to think that voters would take the unbalanced schedules into account. Almost all ACC teams have played 8 conference games so far, but those 8-game slates are far from equal. (I take some comfort in noticing that while UNC has only played two teams who currently have a winning conference record, and played them both at home, they still managed a 21-point win and a 21-point loss.)

    Which leads to my question: how do you take unbalanced schedules into account? Is there a statistical metric in existence that can adjust a team's conference record based on strength of schedule? Many of the stat sources that are cited here look at the season as a whole, and don't limit themselves to conference play.

    If done meaningfully, a weekly ACC Power Rankings thread might be a nice complement to pfrduke's This Week in the ACC posts.
    Maybe such rankings are not meaningful on a weekly basis - too little additional data to support changes?

  9. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by Wahoo2000 View Post
    I'm not going as far as to predict a loss, but I think on normal rest we'd be a legit 2-4pt favorite, even on the road. With the Duke game only 48 hours prior? Feels like a pick 'em, maybe UNC -1
    You may be right...hope you are...but the issue here, IMO, is NOT rest. Not physical rest. It's far more emotional and mental rest that they will not get enough of. I would bet a pie, ten to one, that the energy and intensity exhibited by UVa in the Duke games is noticeably and palpably higher than in the UNC game...especially early. This will be just 48 hours after your home super bowl game, will it not?
    Don't waste your time on House of Cards S6!
    -We found out Frank was critical to making anyone else in the show interesting...not a surprise...

  10. #30
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Richmond, VA

    Simple analysis

    So here is a simple analysis that works for me...

    A team gets 1 point for a road win and -1 for a home loss.
    Now that we are 1/2 way through the season you can also see which teams are in the top half of the league (in contention) and who is in the bottom half. So another 1 point for a win against a top half of the league team. That takes care of the games already played.

    For the future games I look at potential points (count just away games and games against top teams). Any games home or away against the bottom half of the league should be wins so no potential points there.

    With that in mind here is the handicap for the top 8 teams in the league as of today

    Team Points earned Potential points
    UVA 7 10
    Duke 5 12
    Louis 5 11
    UNC 6 10
    VT 3 7
    Syracuse 3 11
    NCSU 1 9
    FSU 0 9

    So obviously there are games today that could really shake up the potential points

    VT @ NCSU is 2 potential points for VT. If they don't get them they are almost out of the running for 1st place. They would only be able to get to 8 points.
    UNC @ Louisville is 2 potential points for UNC. If they don't get them they still could end with 14 points.

  11. #31
    Quote Originally Posted by HereBeforeCoachK View Post
    You may be right...hope you are...but the issue here, IMO, is NOT rest. Not physical rest. It's far more emotional and mental rest that they will not get enough of. I would bet a pie, ten to one, that the energy and intensity exhibited by UVa in the Duke games is noticeably and palpably higher than in the UNC game...especially early. This will be just 48 hours after your home super bowl game, will it not?
    Except that I'd call @UNC our "road" super bowl game as well as they've been playing lately. Add in that we have a week with no games (today through Sat) to rest and prepare, and it helps with the "fatigue factor" somewhat. Obviously, the UNC game will be tougher from an energy/preparedness standpoint, but I *honestly* believe (though I doubt you agree) that Tony and the players want to win @UNC just as much as they want to beat Duke at home.

    Edited to add: Different story for the fans though - I bet 9/10 UVa fans would trade a loss at UNC for a home win vs Duke. Personally, I'm just hoping for at least a split - however it comes doesn't really matter much to me, though I will be distraught after a loss to either.

  12. #32
    Quote Originally Posted by Wahoo2000 View Post
    Except that I'd call @UNC our "road" super bowl game as well as they've been playing lately. Add in that we have a week with no games (today through Sat) to rest and prepare, and it helps with the "fatigue factor" somewhat. Obviously, the UNC game will be tougher from an energy/preparedness standpoint, but I *honestly* believe (though I doubt you agree) that Tony and the players want to win @UNC just as much as they want to beat Duke at home.
    This would not be consistent with what I've observed - most of the time - since 1991-92. And not just at UVa....pretty much everywhere.
    Don't waste your time on House of Cards S6!
    -We found out Frank was critical to making anyone else in the show interesting...not a surprise...

  13. #33
    Quote Originally Posted by HereBeforeCoachK View Post
    This would not be consistent with what I've observed - most of the time - since 1991-92. And not just at UVa...pretty much everywhere.
    I don't know, I think us going 28-2 in our last 30 ACC games means we pretty much "bring it" every night. Sometimes we shoot poorly, those are the ones we have a chance to lose. But I see A+++ effort pretty much every single time out.

  14. #34
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    DC and DE Beach

    Now what?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rich View Post
    I know in the grand scheme of things it doesn't matter, and perhaps it's a stupid question, but I'm curious: Why is UVA above us in that [ACC standings] table?

    The records and W/L percentage are identical, but...
    We beat them in the only face to face matchup
    The national ranking favors Duke
    The D (in Duke) precedes V in the alphabet
    The B (in Blue Devils) precedes C in the alphabet

    Why are they listed first and us second?
    I agreed earlier with the OPs who pointed out that Virginia was listed first because its overall record (only one loss) was better than Duke's (two losses)

    But now I have no logical explanation for why ESPN has bumped UNC ahead of Duke based on the games this afternoon. Duke seems to me to be tied or ahead of UNC based on all relevant criteria (and even alphabetically). Anyone???

  15. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by Wahoo2000 View Post
    I don't know, I think us going 28-2 in our last 30 ACC games means we pretty much "bring it" every night. Sometimes we shoot poorly, those are the ones we have a chance to lose. But I see A+++ effort pretty much every single time out.
    The Hoo players do bring it pretty much every night (UMBC being the fugly exception) - but I think the arena energy is more for Duke than anyone. I believe JPJ has been stormed twice, once for Zona real early in it's history and then once for Duke. I also think a storming was on the way in 2015 til Quin and Tyus combined for 9 rapid fire points late in the game.
    Don't waste your time on House of Cards S6!
    -We found out Frank was critical to making anyone else in the show interesting...not a surprise...

  16. #36
    Join Date
    Feb 2016
    Location
    Atlanta
    Quote Originally Posted by westwall View Post
    I agreed earlier with the OPs who pointed out that Virginia was listed first because its overall record (only one loss) was better than Duke's (two losses)

    But now I have no logical explanation for why ESPN has bumped UNC ahead of Duke based on the games this afternoon. Duke seems to me to be tied or ahead of UNC based on all relevant criteria (and even alphabetically). Anyone???
    That's not what I am seeing. Perhaps you saw it when it was in mid-update?

    espn standings.jpg

  17. #37
    Quote Originally Posted by HereBeforeCoachK View Post
    The Hoo players do bring it pretty much every night (UMBC being the fugly exception) - but I think the arena energy is more for Duke than anyone. I believe JPJ has been stormed twice, once for Zona real early in it's history and then once for Duke. I also think a storming was on the way in 2015 til Quin and Tyus combined for 9 rapid fire points late in the game.
    Yeah - like in my previous post, Duke is DEFINITELY the biggest deal for 90% (ok, maybe 99%) of the fanbase. But I do think Bennett does a good job of getting the team to keep things in perspective (big game, sure. but don't make it your super bowl).

    And if we somehow win next Saturday, and they storm the court, I'll be embarrassed. No top 5 team should ever storm the court, unless the opponent is undefeated in mid-late Feb, or MAYBE if there's some kind of insane miracle comeback, like a 20 point second half deficit where you win at the buzzer on a half court shot.

  18. #38
    Quote Originally Posted by HereBeforeCoachK View Post
    The Hoo players do bring it pretty much every night (UMBC being the fugly exception) - but I think the arena energy is more for Duke than anyone. I believe JPJ has been stormed twice, once for Zona real early in it's history and then once for Duke. I also think a storming was on the way in 2015 til Quin and Tyus combined for 9 rapid fire points late in the game.
    It would be odd if UVA didn't bring it in the one game they had to win in order to keep playing, especially after the great regular season they had.

    Ryan Odom just exploited the limitations in the UVA defense and it just so happens that UVA also plays the exact type of tempo an underdog would need to pull off an upset. UVA isn't used to playing catch-up so they were all thumbs when they needed to push the pace to increase their total number of possessions/chances to score.

  19. #39
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Earth
    Quote Originally Posted by BandAlum83 View Post
    That's not what I am seeing. Perhaps you saw it when it was in mid-update?
    It's there on ESPN.com now. The only logical explanation is the UNC-Louisville game was played later.

    I think the emotion of the Duke-UVA game and UNC's lack of preparation time for UVA cancel each other out at worst. We will see.

  20. #40
    Join Date
    Feb 2016
    Location
    Atlanta
    Quote Originally Posted by duke2x View Post
    It's there on ESPN.com now. The only logical explanation is the UNC-Louisville game was played later.

    I think the emotion of the Duke-UVA game and UNC's lack of preparation time for UVA cancel each other out at worst. We will see.
    I attached a screen shot from ESPN.com.

    Would love a link to what you are seeing.

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