Tracking the ACC regular season race

[Frybay]

from the top:

uva/unc/duke are locked into the top 3 seeds.

UVA win = 1 seed for them, with the winner of duke/carolina getting the 2
UVA loss = 2 seed, with the winner/loser of duke/unc getting the 1 and 3, respectively.

FSU is locked into the 4 seed.

VT/cuse/UL are locked into the 5/6/7 with the following caveats:
VT gets the 5 with a win. The tiebreakers are as follows:
UL over Cuse
Cuse over VT
VT over UL

In the case of a 3 way tie, it's UL > Cuse > VT regardless of the standings at the top. UL will have the tiebreak due to their wins over UNC and UVA.

NCSU and Clemson are locked into the 8 and 9, and will play each other on day 2 regardless of what happens

For the 10 seed, the following tiebreakers apply (any team finishing at 6-12)
GT>BC
UM>GT
BC>UM

Should they all end up tied, BC gets the 10 seed by virtue of their win over FSU, followed by UM and GT

For the teams that finish 5-13:
BC>UM
BC>wake
wake>UM (they would have to beat FSU to get to 5-13, and this would give them the tiebreak)

In the case where all 3 are tied, BC > wake > UM

ND and Pitt are locked into the 14 and 15 spots, with their game on saturday deciding their relative seeding.



So what does it mean for duke? It is a very slim chance we get the 1 seed. like <5%. So we almost assuredly won't see NCSU or clemson. We also almost assuredly won't see VT, who has a 90% chance of being the 5 seed.

So our single bye matchup will pretty much 50/50 be cuse or UL, becuase we're 50/50 2 or 3 seed. UL has like 75% chance of getting the 6 seed over syracuse due to their tiebreaker.

if we're the 2 seed, the likely first round game is very likely to be GT vs a toss up at 14/15.
if we're the 3 seed, the likely first round game is very likely to be BC vs a toss up at 14/15

So the most likely scenario right now is UL ends up with BC, the loser of duke/unc, and the winner of pitt/ND, and Syracuse ends up with GT, the winner of duke/unc, and the loser of pitt/ND

Of those choices, I'd much rather end up with syracuse and GT...or ultimately, in this case, I do not advocate throwing the game against UNC in order to get a better matchup

So no matter what UNCheats will get a new banner in Smith Center – 3rd place or 2nd place ACC Regular Season Champion!

[83bluedevil]

from the top:

uva/unc/duke are locked into the top 3 seeds.

UVA win = 1 seed for them, with the winner of duke/carolina getting the 2
UVA loss = 2 seed, with the winner/loser of duke/unc getting the 1 and 3, respectively.

FSU is locked into the 4 seed.

VT/cuse/UL are locked into the 5/6/7 with the following caveats:
VT gets the 5 with a win. The tiebreakers are as follows:
UL over Cuse
Cuse over VT
VT over UL

In the case of a 3 way tie, it's UL > Cuse > VT regardless of the standings at the top. UL will have the tiebreak due to their wins over UNC and UVA.

NCSU and Clemson are locked into the 8 and 9, and will play each other on day 2 regardless of what happens

For the 10 seed, the following tiebreakers apply (any team finishing at 6-12)
GT>BC
UM>GT
BC>UM

Should they all end up tied, BC gets the 10 seed by virtue of their win over FSU, followed by UM and GT

For the teams that finish 5-13:
BC>UM
BC>wake
wake>UM (they would have to beat FSU to get to 5-13, and this would give them the tiebreak)

In the case where all 3 are tied, BC > wake > UM

ND and Pitt are locked into the 14 and 15 spots, with their game on saturday deciding their relative seeding.



So what does it mean for duke? It is a very slim chance we get the 1 seed. like <5%. So we almost assuredly won't see NCSU or clemson. We also almost assuredly won't see VT, who has a 90% chance of being the 5 seed.

So our single bye matchup will pretty much 50/50 be cuse or UL, becuase we're 50/50 2 or 3 seed. UL has like 75% chance of getting the 6 seed over syracuse due to their tiebreaker.

if we're the 2 seed, the likely first round game is very likely to be GT vs a toss up at 14/15.
if we're the 3 seed, the likely first round game is very likely to be BC vs a toss up at 14/15

So the most likely scenario right now is UL ends up with BC, the loser of duke/unc, and the winner of pitt/ND, and Syracuse ends up with GT, the winner of duke/unc, and the loser of pitt/ND

Of those choices, I'd much rather end up with syracuse and GT...or ultimately, in this case, I do not advocate throwing the game against UNC in order to get a better matchup

But UL didn't beat UVA

[BandAlum83]

But UL didn't beat UVA

Under the scenario of tying, it would mean they won their game. So, UL will have won under the scenario given.

[uh_no]

Under the scenario of tying, it would mean they won their game. So, UL will have won under the scenario given.

bingo. I almost missed that when i first did it, and remembered it when i double checked everything...it SIGNIFICANTLY simplified that tiebreak scenario, which had all sorts of cases depending on what the top 3 did.

[BandAlum83]

bingo. I almost missed that when i first did it, and remembered it when i double checked everything...it SIGNIFICANTLY simplified that tiebreak scenario, which had all sorts of cases depending on what the top 3 did.

It's not often one has the opportunity to use the future perfect tense in normal daily discourse.

"UL will have won their game with UVA under that scenario."

[uh_no]

It's not often one has the opportunity to use the future perfect tense in normal daily discourse.

"UL will have won their game with UVA under that scenario."

ah yes, it is you who are correct.

[uh_no]

from the top:

uva/unc/duke are locked into the top 3 seeds.

UVA win = 1 seed for them, with the winner of duke/carolina getting the 2
UVA loss = 2 seed, with the winner/loser of duke/unc getting the 1 and 3, respectively.

FSU is locked into the 4 seed.

VT is locked into the 5 seed.

Cuse and UL are playing for the 6 and 7 seeds, with the tie breaker going to UL.

NCSU and Clemson are locked into the 8 and 9, and will play each other on day 2 regardless of what happens

For the 10 seed, the following tiebreakers apply (any team finishing at 6-12)
GT>BC
UM>GT
BC>UM

Should they all end up tied, BC gets the 10 seed by virtue of their win over FSU, followed by UM and GT

For the teams that finish 5-13:
BC>UM
BC>wake
wake>UM (they would have to beat FSU to get to 5-13, and this would give them the tiebreak)

In the case where all 3 are tied, BC > wake > UM

ND and Pitt are locked into the 14 and 15 spots, with their game on saturday deciding their relative seeding.

updated

[uh_no]

updated

UVA 1

duke/UNC 2/3

FSU 4

VT 5

UL 6

Cuse 7

NCSU 8

Clsmson 9

GT 10

BC 11

UM 12

WF 13

Pitt 14

ND 15

so with a win, we get cuse/GT/ND, and with a loss, we get UL/BC/Pitt...pretty much what we thought.

[flyingdutchdevil]

If it’s not Duke, I’d hope it’s UVa.

[fuse]

I’m kinda stunned to see Notre Dame at 15.
Says a lot if you are having a rougher season than Miami with 7 scholarship players, Pitt, and Wake Forest.