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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Feb 2007

    MBB: Duke at uNC (Sat 3/9, 6:00 pm ET, ESPN) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

    Put your thoughts about this game in here.

    To start off with, a couple from me:
    (1) If Zion is out, I highly recommend making the two primary creators RJ and Tre, not RJ and Cam.
    (2) Jack's rebounding would seem to be huge in this game. We need him to shoot well so he can stay on the court. I like Jack over Alex in this one.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    If Zion is out, a reminder of when an undermanned, highly-doubted, essentially 5-man team (after Matt Jones got injured) went into Chapel Hill recently and won:


  3. #3
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Princeton, NJ
    I like that people are doubting us. It's not often that we get to be an underdog. Even without Zion, I like our chances. Team will be ready to go with a good gameplan. All the pressure will be on UNC if Zion doesn't play. If he does play, then we are the better team IMO.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Cary, NC
    In the first game we did a great job of taking away their threes, and that will have to be a priority again. If they get going from three, we're just not going to score enough to keep up. The question then becomes how do we do that without also giving up so many easy layups inside, if we don't have Zion to patrol the lane? I thought against Wake we did a better job of having our bigs recover after they hedged up top. Typically it is so easy to force us into switches, but we seemed focused on getting our bigs back onto their original man, so that was good. Against the CHeats we're really going to have to clean up the switching and recovering because that was the biggest failure in the first game that led to their layup line. We also need to do a better job of recognizing who their scorers are and not helping off of them.

    If Zion doesn't play then we're going to need a hot shooting night and a gimmicky defense. Maybe some full court pressure and throw in some zone (but don't overpursue and leave the corner threes wide open). It will be a tough task.

    On the Zion front, I really think he's going to play and that K's comment about being unsure of his status is just gamesmanship. How could you be 100% positive he will be ready in 10 days, but doubtful that he will play in four days? I could be wrong though.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC

    Scouting Report

    Content mostly copy/pasted over from the first matchup. Let's go Duke!

    UNC does a lot of the things that Roy Williams teams do well: namely, run the floor and rebound on both ends. They play the 4th fastest tempo in D1, and are a top-25 rebounding team on both the offensive and defensive glass. That second stat is really impressive as they are not a big team. On offense, they are a fantastic 3pt shooting team, but they turn it over a fair amount and they don’t draw fouls. It is a bit abnormal for a UNC team to shoot so many threes and to not draw fouls, but that is kind of the team they have. On defense, they congest the lane and rebound extremely well, can occasionally force turnovers, but that is about it.

    Centers: The nominal center is Garrison Brooks (6’9”, 230lb sophomore). Brooks is an athletic, energy player who does the little things. He is good in the pick-and-roll game and can finish at the rim. He can also knock down the occasional 15-footer. But he can’t dribble and is mainly a tertiary offensive option. Still, he plays with high energy and effort and has a knack for the annoyingly successful play despite limited skill. In theory, Brooks is backed up by Sterling Manley (6’11”, 235lb sophomore). But Manley missed over a month with a knee injury and has played very sparingly the last two games. When he has played this year, he has generally been ineffective. Well, maybe that isn’t fair. He has blocked shots and has rebounded at an elite rate. But his offensive contributions have been awful. Brandon Huffman (6’10”, 250lb sophomore) is the emergency big. But the Heels will often just go smaller when Brooks is out.

    Forwards: Luke Maye (6’8”, 240lb senior) is the starter at forward. Maye is the kind of story one would love if he wasn’t a Heel. A lightly-recruited, undersized and under athletic big, he has put in a ton of work to maximize his play at the college level. He is a strong kid, an elite defensive rebounder. He is also a terrific shooter, though he has struggled a bit this year. He can’t dribble at all, though, and on a team light on playmakers his offensive limitations have been somewhat exposed. He is sort of like a bigger, less bouncy Jack White. Maye will be overmatched if asked to defend anyone but Bolden/White/DeLaurier. I would expect us to try to get him iso’d on a freshman when possible. Behind, and sometimes alongside Maye is Nassir Little (6’6”, 220lb freshman). Little was a top-5 recruit who has elite physical tools and plays a high-energy style. And he has been really productive for UNC... when Roy has let him play. He averages 20.8 points and 9.9 rebounds per 40 minutes, but gets just 18.3 mpg because he doesn’t fit Roy’s system on the wing and Roy doesn’t like to play a small ball PF much (Little would be a nightmare as a college 4). He doesn’t handle the ball well and doesn’t shoot well, but he is ferocious on straight-line drives and finishing at the rim.

    Wings: Cam Johnson (6’9”, 210lb senior grad transfer from Pitt) is the star on the wing. Johnson is the rare grad transfer who (a) did so with TWO years of eligibility left and (b) got to do so within conference. So, kudos to UNC for pulling that off. Johnson’s game is the 3-ball. He is an ELITE perimeter shooter. Like the others mentioned, Johnson doesn’t dribble. So he relies on others to create looks for him. But when he gets a lot, it frequently goes in. On defense, though, Johnson can be a liability at times. The other starter on the wing is Kenny Williams (6’4”, 185lb senior). Williams is another lower-tier recruit turned good for UNC. He is a good athlete and willing defender, and a better shooter than his numbers would indicate. He also has a knack for hitting loooong, contested 3s late in the shot clock. Williams gets a fair amount of “pass it on the perimeter” assists as well. Once again, though, the limitation for him is that he doesn’t handle the ball well. The third man on the wings is technically Little, but Little plays more of a forward role. So the next up is Brandon Robinson (6’4”, 170lb junior). Robinson is a string bean with decent athleticism but whose primary value is, you guessed it, his outside shot. And, you probably also guessed, he can’t handle the ball. The other option will be either Rechon “Leaky” Black (6’7”, 185lb freshman) or Andrew Platek (6’3”, 200lb sophomore). Black has missed several games with an ankle injury, and there has been no update on his availability. So who knows? If he plays, Black is a long, athletic shooting wing who can harass the passing lanes. Sort of a very poor man’s Reddish, if you will. If Black sits, Platek might fill in sparingly. And that would be a big edge to Duke, because Platek is not skilled or athletic enough to play at the ACC level.

    Guards: Coby White (6’5”, 185lb freshman) is the guy that carries this UNC team. He is one of only two capable ballhandlers, and is also their best scorer. White isn’t really a PG, but can do it in a pinch. He is a terrific shooter and crafty ballhandler/driver. He is a threat to score from anywhere, and will need to be the focal point of our game plan. Make him struggle and force it into the hands of others, and good things can happen for us. The less White has the ball, the better. The only other guy who can dribble for UNC is Seventh Woods (6’2”, 185lb junior). Woods was an elite prospect as a freshman in high school, leading to an early UNC commit. But his game plateaued young, and he just has never put it together in college. Woods is a terrific athlete who just doesn’t have the b-ball IQ to make it work at his size. He can handle the ball okay, and can deliver highlight-reel dunks. But he is a turnover machine and a minimal offensive weapon. He does generate assists, but he feels kind of like an empty calorie guy out there. Still, White serves his role as the backup point whenever White needs a break.

    UNC is more experienced and a far better shooting team. If they dominate the glass (which they can do) and/or hit their 3s, we will be in trouble. If we can limit their transition buckets, force guys other than White to make plays, and keep them from killing us on the boards, we have a chance. But it won’t be easy.

    Obviously, the chances of victory go up dramatically with a healthy Zion playing.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by freshmanjs View Post
    I like that people are doubting us. It's not often that we get to be an underdog. Even without Zion, I like our chances. Team will be ready to go with a good gameplan. All the pressure will be on UNC if Zion doesn't play. If he does play, then we are the better team IMO.
    I agree. I kind of like that we're coming off a 1-pt win vs Wake Forest heading into this game. It'll hopefully put us into the right frame of mind and hopefully put UNC into the wrong frame of mind. There's a reason why across all sports, coaches and players like to play up "Nobody believes in us!"

    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    On the Zion front, I really think he's going to play and that K's comment about being unsure of his status is just gamesmanship. How could you be 100% positive he will be ready in 10 days, but doubtful that he will play in four days? I could be wrong though.
    I think part of the consideration is whether Coach K wants the UNC game to be Zion's first game back.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    One additional factor that would (in theory, at least; it hasn't typically worked out that way historically) play to our advantage won't likely be a factor this year: starting the walk-on seniors. This year, UNC doesn't appear to have any senior walk-ons. The only seniors they have are already starters (Maye, Johnson, Williams). So we unfortunately likely won't get the opportunity for Tre Jones to repeatedly pick the pocket of a poor walk-on in the opening minutes.

    That said, we haven't exactly managed to torch UNC consistently during those opening minutes over the years. But it would have been nice to have had the opportunity.

  8. #8
    Anything can happen on a given night. A good majority of those 3s UVa hit the other night were long, contested shots that were just what Syracuse wanted but they were swishes. If unc goes off like that, tip of the hat (after first putting the hat in the toilet) to them and it's happened with Duke as well. These next 3.5 days are going to be interesting.

  9. #9
    If Zion truly isn't playing, and that's the biggest IF of the season, then K is going to have to conjure some special special magic for this one. It's just hard for me to see a path to victory without our big guy. He brings SO much to the table, and maybe most importantly on the defensive end. Luke Maye will play just like he played in Cameron. He may not get all the way to 30 points, but his game doesn't change. He's consistent. Athleticism negates what he does (which he is very good at), and without Z we don't have the athletes to guard him. He absolutely abused Jack White in Durham. It was painful to watch. Delaurier wasn't any better. Bolden either. If Maye is torching you, and you still have to contend with the scoring abilities of White and Johnson, that's a long night. Especially if you can't shoot. I'm trying to think of something positive to say... maybe lower expectations will be less of a letdown?? Maybe they'll go ice cold shooting?? IDK. I will not go into this game expecting a W.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    One additional factor that would (in theory, at least; it hasn't typically worked out that way historically) play to our advantage won't likely be a factor this year: starting the walk-on seniors. This year, UNC doesn't appear to have any senior walk-ons. The only seniors they have are already starters (Maye, Johnson, Williams). So we unfortunately likely won't get the opportunity for Tre Jones to repeatedly pick the pocket of a poor walk-on in the opening minutes.

    That said, we haven't exactly managed to torch UNC consistently during those opening minutes over the years. But it would have been nice to have had the opportunity.
    Except for a few occasions, I feel this has worked against Duke. As you said, Duke hasn't exploited it, and because of that, I feel like UNC gains an emotional boost. Impossible to measure though, and in theory, it's obviously better to play against significantly worse players for 10 percent of the game than not.
       

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    I think part of the consideration is whether Coach K wants the UNC game to be Zion's first game back.
    One thing to keep in mind. I'm not saying this is necessarily rational, but in Zion's two most recent plays trying to take a UNC player off the dribble, Zion has seriously injured himself. Now, we all remember THE most recent play in which Zion laid down the most explosive left foot plant in human history and destroyed a shoe, which caused him to sprain his right MCL.

    But prior to that, in the McDonald's All-American Game, Zion tried to take Nassir Little off the dribble and Zion ended up falling and bending his thumb backwards in a very nasty looking injury when he braced the fall. (Here's a high-resolution GIF for anyone morbidly curious.) The thumb injury ended his high school all-star game season, but thankfully, it wasn't serious enough for him to miss Duke's Canada tour.

    If Zion plays, I'd want him to almost be a decoy at the beginning of the game. Ease into the game; modulate his emotions and energy instead of getting too amped up; don't try to win the game and get payback with one play. I love that he loves Duke and cares about the rivalry, though (if that's playing a role in his misfortune and not just dumb, random luck).

  12. #12
    This will be a With Zion or Without Zion game, depending on the next 3 days of practice. Regardless, we need to do three things well:

    • Keep track of Luke Maye. He positions well. Reminds me (for the old timers) of Bailey Howell of the Celtics in the 1960s (an All-Star with no particular skills, other than positioning to get the opportunistic play).
    • Defend Cam Johnson and Coby White
    • Take care of the ball (not just passing, but not rushing shots).

    Focus for the whole game

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Lar77 View Post
    This will be a With Zion or Without Zion game, depending on the next 3 days of practice. Regardless, we need to do three things well:

    • Keep track of Luke Maye. He positions well. Reminds me (for the old timers) of Bailey Howell of the Celtics in the 1960s (an All-Star with no particular skills, other than positioning to get the opportunistic play).
    • Defend Cam Johnson and Coby White
    • Take care of the ball (not just passing, but not rushing shots).

    Focus for the whole game
    So much of beating UNC depends on the following:
    1. Don't let them get transition baskets (i.e., get your [tail] back defensively)
    2. Minimize their damage on the glass
    3. Pay attention to their off-ball screen action, which is the way they generate easy baskets at the rim aside from offensive rebounds
    4. Contain the playmaker (in this case, Coby White)

    If you can do those four things, you can beat UNC. We didn't do 3 of those 4 things well last time out (we did a great job on White). We need to be better, obviously. With or without Zion. With Zion would make it much easier to do those things, of course.

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    So much of beating UNC depends on the following:
    1. Don't let them get transition baskets (i.e., get your [tail] back defensively)
    2. Minimize their damage on the glass
    3. Pay attention to their off-ball screen action, which is the way they generate easy baskets at the rim aside from offensive rebounds
    4. Contain the playmaker (in this case, Coby White)

    If you can do those four things, you can beat UNC. We didn't do 3 of those 4 things well last time out (we did a great job on White). We need to be better, obviously. With or without Zion. With Zion would make it much easier to do those things, of course.
    How in the bejeezus does UNC always dominate the glass? It seems regardless of personnel or opponent, they almost always have an advantage there.

    I'm sure Tar Heel fans would say the same about our 3 point shooting until, well, this year.
    Let's go Duke!

  15. #15
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    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    How in the bejeezus does UNC always dominate the glass? It seems regardless of personnel or opponent, they almost always have an advantage there.

    I'm sure Tar Heel fans would say the same about our 3 point shooting until, well, this year.
    It's one of the things that Williams coaches really well. Along with tempo. His teams always play fast, and always are great on the glass. One of the benefits of being a system coach is that, if you are good at it, you can make sure your team is great at certain things. UNC's system is built around finding ways to feed the post, dominating the boards, and pushing tempo at every opportunity. Everything revolves around that.

    There are things that they are consistently bad at, too, like 3pt shooting defense. By comparison, Coach K teams have generally been decent to great at defending/preventing 3s but bad to awful at defensive rebounding. Just a different philosophy.

  16. #16
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    Dec 2008
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    I know not what course others may take; but as for me, give me liberty, or give me death!
    If they win by being hot from 3, so be it, but Duke needs to do all they can to stop the layup line. Make it so they get one shot per possesion.

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Feb 2016
    Location
    Atlanta
    Quote Originally Posted by Lar77 View Post
    This will be a With Zion or Without Zion game, depending on the next 3 days of practice. Regardless, we need to do three things well:

    • Keep track of Luke Maye. He positions well. Reminds me (for the old timers) of Bailey Howell of the Celtics in the 1960s (an All-Star with no particular skills, other than positioning to get the opportunistic play).
    • Defend Cam Johnson and Coby White
    • Take care of the ball (not just passing, but not rushing shots).

    Focus for the whole game
    Whew....I have no idea who that is. I guess I'm not an old time (yet!)

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by Reddevil View Post
    If they win by being hot from 3, so be it, but Duke needs to do all they can to stop the layup line. Make it so they get one shot per possesion.
    I think this is wrong. It looked bad because of the uncontested layups, but by shutting down UNC’s three-point game we held them to a 0.85 adjusted dRating, which is really good. We allowed them 14 fast break points, which isn’t great but is certainly adequate in an 87 possession game, and we garnered 74% of available defensive rebounds, essentially meaning their offensive rebounding prowess was a non-factor.

    Where we lost the last game was on offense, not defense. We shot poorly, turned the ball over way too much, didn’t get to the line, and were almost as ineffective on the offensive boards as they were.

    Bottom line, if our D is the same as it was last game, and our offense looks like it did against Wake, we’ll probably lose. If our D is exactly the same as last game and our offense looks like it did against Miami or Syracuse, or even VaTech, we’ll probably win.
       

  19. #19
    I'm not saying Duke will win without Zion, but I know I wouldn't feel comfortable betting against an underdog RJ Barrett. He will definitely need some help though.
       

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Greensboro, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by BandAlum83 View Post
    Whew...I have no idea who that is. I guess I'm not an old time (yet!)
    Bailey Howell made his mark manufacturing motion-picture cameras before segueing into the NBA. You may be too old for that joke, too.
    Man, if your Mom made you wear that color when you were a baby, and you're still wearing it, it's time to grow up!

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