Tracking the ACC regular season race

[AustinDevil]

I admit that rigging the schedule is impossible with 15 teams and 18 games. The logistics to make it all work out preclude any weird stuff. However in terms of Big Monday that's a one-off (or 3) against UVA and a one-off for UNC

Rigging the schedule within a single season, perhaps.

Rigging drawing the long straw on more key schedule elements than not, over years, is not impossible.

I do not think the ACC is rigging anything, however.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Excepting maybe for a dude with a sore back having to sit up in a charter bus seat for 3+ hours. Coming off of 37 minutes chasing around Barrett, having a sore/stiff back, then sitting on a bus for hours, then having to chase around White/Williams/Johnson? Not feeling great about Jerome's prospects for a big game.

And the bus ride is only part of a perfect storm against Virginia in this case (in favor of the Cheats), which I think some people are missing here.
Consider:
6 hour turn around advantage (noon start versus 6 pm start on Saturday)
3 hour bus ride advantage (riding a bus is NOT restful)
That's 9 hours of improved rest and recovery out of only maybe 30 waking hours. That is significant even for college athletes.
Plus the emotional toll of a Duke game, which is much more than the emotional toll of a Miami game.

I don't think the Hoos win Monnday...hope to be wrong, but I just don't see it, especially with Diakite and Jerome.

As for rigging, I don't know that I really think it's going on, but over the years the Heels seem to get a few of these....and it doesn't require rigging 15 teams....only a few. It would not be hard at all to do, and it would not be hard to deny either.

[gofurman]

Excepting maybe for a dude with a sore back having to sit up in a charter bus seat for 3+ hours. Coming off of 37 minutes chasing around Barrett, having a sore/stiff back, then sitting on a bus for hours, then having to chase around White/Williams/Johnson? Not feeling great about Jerome's prospects for a big game.

So Jerome has a sore back?

Is there something with another player too? Diakate?

[devildeac]

So Jerome has a sore back?

Is there something with another player too? Diakate?

Diakite bumped heads with a teammate on the perimeter about 10-15 minutes into the game and was on the floor for several minutes. I don't think he re-entered the game.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Diakite bumped heads with a teammate on the perimeter about 10-15 minutes into the game and was on the floor for several minutes. I don't think he re-entered the game.

He did not re enter the game, and Bennett was kind of skirting around the issue in post game, not wanting to use the "C" word.

[uh_no]

the biggest implication of tonights game is that we likely now own the tiebreaker over UNC and UVA.

UVA by virtue of our h2h
UNC (assuming we at least split) by virtue of their loss to uva (assuming UVA finishes third in the conference)

UNC now no longer controls their own destiny for a 1 seed, losing the tiebreaker to UVA.

[uh_no]

no big changes after the full slate of weekday games. clemson and NCSU are technically still alive, everyone below them is eliminated from even a share of the regular season.

Things get dicey this weekend, as clemson and NCSU losses would eliminate them from 1 seed contention, and assuming UNC beats WF, the minimum best record would move to 12-6, eliminating them from a share of the regular season.

[uh_no]

there are some status changes after yesterday's slate of games:

- with Duke and UNC's wins, the minimum record to win the ACC has moved to 12-6 which means
- NCSU and Clemson would have been eliminated from winning outright, or 1 seed contention anyway, but given their losses, they are eliminated from everything

This leaves 7 teams still alive, and still only duke controlling it's own destiny. Realistically, though, only 3 teams are alive.

[JasonEvans]

Syracuse is about to enter the really tough stretch of their schedule. Though the Orange stand at 8-4 and seem to be in the race for a top 4 seed, the reality is that they will likely be favored in no more than 1 or 2 of their remaining games and, if I had to guess, I would expect them to finish 9-9 or 10-8.

Syracuse, UNC, and Va Tech have the three more difficult remaining schedules in the ACC. Meanwhile, NC State and FSU have relatively easy slates left. State should be favored in all their remaining games except the game at FSU and the Seminoles only remaining really tough test is at UNC. I won't be entirely shocked if FSU manages to pass Carolina for the #3 seed in the conference.

-Jason "if FSU manages to beat Carolina in Chapel Hill, I think the Noles will get the #3 seed" Evans