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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!

    Tracking the ACC regular season race

    Just wanted to have a collector thread for conversation about the race to win the ACC regular season title (I know, I know, meaningless due to imbalanced schedule but we all still care about it and the NCAA committee seems to think it is significant).

    Current standings:


    So, 5 games in and we have a 6-way tie for first. Which of these teams are pretenders who will fall back in a big way? I'm tempted to say Louisville is a big pretender, but there is a decent chance they will get to 7-1 as their next 3 are NCSt at home, Pitt at home, and then at Wake. Of course, they better pile up wins while they can as the back half of their schedule has a ton of tough games.

    What are the big surprises so far? FSU at 1-4 (they just lost to BC) looks like they are teetering. The crushing loss to Duke seems to have broken them as they have dropped games to Pitt and BC since then.

    -Jason "how many games will Pitt win? I see 7 or 8 more games they have a decent chance at winning, they won't win all of them but if they get to 6 or more total ACC wins, I think Capel is a COY candidate" Evans
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  2. #2
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Just wanted to have a collector thread for conversation about the race to win the ACC regular season title (I know, I know, meaningless due to imbalanced schedule but we all still care about it and the NCAA committee seems to think it is significant).

    Current standings:


    So, 5 games in and we have a 6-way tie for first. Which of these teams are pretenders who will fall back in a big way? I'm tempted to say Louisville is a big pretender, but there is a decent chance they will get to 7-1 as their next 3 are NCSt at home, Pitt at home, and then at Wake. Of course, they better pile up wins while they can as the back half of their schedule has a ton of tough games.

    What are the big surprises so far? FSU at 1-4 (they just lost to BC) looks like they are teetering. The crushing loss to Duke seems to have broken them as they have dropped games to Pitt and BC since then.

    -Jason "how many games will Pitt win? I see 7 or 8 more games they have a decent chance at winning, they won't win all of them but if they get to 6 or more total ACC wins, I think Capel is a COY candidate" Evans
    These standings don’t reflect BC’s win earlier today. Interesting that we have a 6-way tie for 1st and 6 teams only have one win. The middle of the standings only include 3 teams. If we can beat UVA a 2nd time, I think we’re in great shape for the reg season.

  3. #3
    Gotta like our chances at leading the ACC at 8-1 when we go to Virginia in a few weeks... we avoid the other 4-1 teams until then, while they all play each other (except for UVA, but they have a tough road game at NC State).

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Up to date standings... as we enter the new week.



    -Jason "if the ACC is going to get 8 or 9 teams into the dance, and we should, then a few of those clubs at the bottom need to fix things... quick" Evans
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Atlanta 'burbs
    Here’s hoping that Va Tech is in sole possession of first place after tonight ... because cheaters.

    And then tied for first place after tomorrow night ... because Duke.

  6. #6
    My take

    UNC Is improving .. kills me but they look like they are. Cody White impresses me

    FSU Is way too talented (as we saw) to be that low. They need to get their stuff together.

    All ACC teams have some talent but Pitt and Wake have the least right now imo. I agree that Capel is doing great if he goes even near 5/6 ACC wins as everyone left the program. He is starting from scratch. And he may exceed Wake Forest who has some upperclassmen. Pitt's top two scorers are freshman. Pitt could be pretty good in a year or two - the whole team returns for the next two years or so (basically one senior contributes now).. it's almost all freshman and a sophomore or two. I would have never thought they could start out beating FSU and Louisville. I have to think Wake will let Danny Manning go.. it's been too long with no success

    Clemson needs to win some soon. They are a decent team that lost one contributor from last year - a big one in Gabe DeVoe.. but still they have 4 of 5 guys back from a sweet sixteen team that made a strong run. Their schedule was hard to start playing at Duke... at Syracuse.. home UVA. So they started 0-3 which is understandable playing two top 5 teams. And they beat Georgia Tech at Clemson. Now they have a slightly easier run coming. Maybe they get to ACC 10-8, 20-11 overall - would that make the tourney?

    I would think Georgia Tech would slide to the bottom as Okogie is in the NBA and Lammers is gone too. Not sure what talent they have

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    duke/unc/uva/UL still control their own destinies, of course.

    Syracuse ALSO does as it still has games remaining against all the 1 loss teams. VT does not, as they don't play UNC again.

    The 1-7 teams are all eliminated, as with the interplay between those top 4 teams, at best, they all get exactly 2 wins, finishing 9-7...and in such a scenario, I can't imagine one of those teams would win a tiebreak, given the games they've already lost to those guys at the top. It's also likely if all those teams finished 9-7, someone who has 2 losses would rise above the pack...though I can't prove that necessarily happens. This will all be moot in a week's time when their elimination numbers hit 0.

    (Note: ACC does not tiebreak for regular season title...they do, however, for the 1 seed...so i suppose those 1-7 teams are still kind of technically alive...)


    "If you don't address the things you're not doing well when you're winning the winning will eventually stop."

    -David Cutcliffe

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Thanks for the reminder uh_no, here are the full standings as most teams finish the first half of their ACC schedule this weekend:

    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    If the season were to end today, we'd be the top seed in the ACC tourney. Let's keep it that way. Though I guess this weekend could see that change (if Louisville wins, they'll assume the top spot; if UNC wins, we'll stay atop).

  10. #10
    Syracuse has to be the biggest surprise. Very interested to see how the second half of their season shapes up.

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Boston, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    Syracuse has to be the biggest surprise. Very interested to see how the second half of their season shapes up.
    I think Louisville has been a bigger revelation, especially considering this is Mack's first year. Louisville has an insanely difficult road ahead, but they aren't losing to bad teams (except Pitt) and they murdered a really good UNC team at UNC.
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    greater New Orleans area
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    Syracuse has to be the biggest surprise. Very interested to see how the second half of their season shapes up.
    Think they go about 3-7 down the stretch though. probably finish a couple of spots lower than they are.

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by Kfanarmy View Post
    Think they go about 3-7 down the stretch though. probably finish a couple of spots lower than they are.
    Yeah, I mentioned in another thread that Lousiville has had the easiest schedule in the conference so far and has the hardest schedule the rest of the way (they will end with the 8th toughest schedule, which seems pretty fair). This weekend they begin a 7 game stretch in which they will probably only be a favorite twice (home to UNC and home to Clemson). They have both Duke and Virginia at home, great opportunities for important resume-making wins... but not easy games to win.

    That said, I'm more optimistic on them than you are. I expect them to be 5-5 down the stretch which would put them at 12-6 in the conference and make them a very strong contender for 3rd in the league.

    -Jason "I'm guessing that Duke and UVA lose no more than 3 games each" Evans
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    Syracuse has to be the biggest surprise. Very interested to see how the second half of their season shapes up.
    They may be a surprise given their lackluster play in Nov and Dec, but don't forget that this year's Syracuse squad is not all that difference from the team that made the Sweet 16 last year and most folks had them pegged as a preseason top 15 team. If you has asked me in September or October who would be the top teams in the ACC this year, I would certainly have put Syracuse in the mix.

    -Jason "the Orange also have a tough finishing stretch-- I think they've got 4 or 5 more losses coming" Evans
    Last edited by JasonEvans; 02-01-2019 at 10:47 AM.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Cary, NC
    I expected Syracuse to be good - they were a sweet 16 team last year and brought back Battle. Thought that Louisville would struggle more but I also thought their recruiting would take more of a hit after all the scandals. Chris Mack has done a great job with them. If State had managed to pull out that win over UVA, I would have felt much better about our chances of winning the regular season. Instead it feels like UVA got their bad game out of their system and still won.

    Our schedule is about to get brutal. After BC we basically play a top-40 team every game the rest of the way except for Wake.

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    Our schedule is about to get brutal. After BC we basically play a top-40 team every game the rest of the way except for Wake.
    ...and Miami.

    Yeah, that is what the ACC is this year. There are very few easy games in the league with at least 8 tourney teams and a few more who are knocking on the door. That said, I still think Duke and UVA come through all this with no more than 3 losses each.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Feb 2016
    Location
    Atlanta
    I'm curious, how many teams in the ACC are using their bye week to play a non-conference game like Duke is?

    I suppose I could go through each team's schedule to see, but maybe someone here already knows the answer.

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    New Jersey
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Thanks for the reminder uh_no, here are the full standings as most teams finish the first half of their ACC schedule this weekend:

    I know in the grand scheme of things it doesn't matter, and perhaps it's a stupid question, but I'm curious: Why is UVA above us in that table?

    The records and W/L percentage are identical, but...
    We beat them in the only face to face matchup
    The national ranking favors Duke
    The D (in Duke) precedes V in the alphabet
    The B (in Blue Devils) precedes C in the alphabet

    Why are they listed first and us second?
    Rich
    "Failure is Not a Destination"
    Coach K on the Dan Patrick Show, December 22, 2016

  19. #19
    Join Date
    Feb 2016
    Location
    Atlanta
    Quote Originally Posted by Rich View Post
    I know in the grand scheme of things it doesn't matter, and perhaps it's a stupid question, but I'm curious: Why is UVA above us in that table?

    The records and W/L percentage are identical, but...
    We beat them in the only face to face matchup
    The national ranking favors Duke
    The D (in Duke) precedes V in the alphabet
    The B (in Blue Devils) precedes C in the alphabet

    Why are they listed first and us second?

    acc standings.JPG

    Their overall record and winning percentage is better.

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Rich View Post
    I know in the grand scheme of things it doesn't matter, and perhaps it's a stupid question, but I'm curious: Why is UVA above us in that table?

    The records and W/L percentage are identical, but...
    We beat them in the only face to face matchup
    The national ranking favors Duke
    The D (in Duke) precedes V in the alphabet
    The B (in Blue Devils) precedes C in the alphabet

    Why are they listed first and us second?
    overall record. ESPN doesn't implement the tie-breaks for each conference.


    "If you don't address the things you're not doing well when you're winning the winning will eventually stop."

    -David Cutcliffe

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