Tracking the ACC regular season race

[AustinDevil]

I admit that rigging the schedule is impossible with 15 teams and 18 games. The logistics to make it all work out preclude any weird stuff. However in terms of Big Monday that's a one-off (or 3) against UVA and a one-off for UNC

Rigging the schedule within a single season, perhaps.

Rigging drawing the long straw on more key schedule elements than not, over years, is not impossible.

I do not think the ACC is rigging anything, however.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Excepting maybe for a dude with a sore back having to sit up in a charter bus seat for 3+ hours. Coming off of 37 minutes chasing around Barrett, having a sore/stiff back, then sitting on a bus for hours, then having to chase around White/Williams/Johnson? Not feeling great about Jerome's prospects for a big game.

And the bus ride is only part of a perfect storm against Virginia in this case (in favor of the Cheats), which I think some people are missing here.
Consider:
6 hour turn around advantage (noon start versus 6 pm start on Saturday)
3 hour bus ride advantage (riding a bus is NOT restful)
That's 9 hours of improved rest and recovery out of only maybe 30 waking hours. That is significant even for college athletes.
Plus the emotional toll of a Duke game, which is much more than the emotional toll of a Miami game.

I don't think the Hoos win Monnday...hope to be wrong, but I just don't see it, especially with Diakite and Jerome.

As for rigging, I don't know that I really think it's going on, but over the years the Heels seem to get a few of these....and it doesn't require rigging 15 teams....only a few. It would not be hard at all to do, and it would not be hard to deny either.

[gofurman]

Excepting maybe for a dude with a sore back having to sit up in a charter bus seat for 3+ hours. Coming off of 37 minutes chasing around Barrett, having a sore/stiff back, then sitting on a bus for hours, then having to chase around White/Williams/Johnson? Not feeling great about Jerome's prospects for a big game.

So Jerome has a sore back?

Is there something with another player too? Diakate?

[devildeac]

So Jerome has a sore back?

Is there something with another player too? Diakate?

Diakite bumped heads with a teammate on the perimeter about 10-15 minutes into the game and was on the floor for several minutes. I don't think he re-entered the game.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Diakite bumped heads with a teammate on the perimeter about 10-15 minutes into the game and was on the floor for several minutes. I don't think he re-entered the game.

He did not re enter the game, and Bennett was kind of skirting around the issue in post game, not wanting to use the "C" word.

[uh_no]

the biggest implication of tonights game is that we likely now own the tiebreaker over UNC and UVA.

UVA by virtue of our h2h
UNC (assuming we at least split) by virtue of their loss to uva (assuming UVA finishes third in the conference)

UNC now no longer controls their own destiny for a 1 seed, losing the tiebreaker to UVA.

[uh_no]

no big changes after the full slate of weekday games. clemson and NCSU are technically still alive, everyone below them is eliminated from even a share of the regular season.

Things get dicey this weekend, as clemson and NCSU losses would eliminate them from 1 seed contention, and assuming UNC beats WF, the minimum best record would move to 12-6, eliminating them from a share of the regular season.

[uh_no]

there are some status changes after yesterday's slate of games:

- with Duke and UNC's wins, the minimum record to win the ACC has moved to 12-6 which means
- NCSU and Clemson would have been eliminated from winning outright, or 1 seed contention anyway, but given their losses, they are eliminated from everything

This leaves 7 teams still alive, and still only duke controlling it's own destiny. Realistically, though, only 3 teams are alive.

[JasonEvans]

Syracuse is about to enter the really tough stretch of their schedule. Though the Orange stand at 8-4 and seem to be in the race for a top 4 seed, the reality is that they will likely be favored in no more than 1 or 2 of their remaining games and, if I had to guess, I would expect them to finish 9-9 or 10-8.

Syracuse, UNC, and Va Tech have the three more difficult remaining schedules in the ACC. Meanwhile, NC State and FSU have relatively easy slates left. State should be favored in all their remaining games except the game at FSU and the Seminoles only remaining really tough test is at UNC. I won't be entirely shocked if FSU manages to pass Carolina for the #3 seed in the conference.

-Jason "if FSU manages to beat Carolina in Chapel Hill, I think the Noles will get the #3 seed" Evans

[uh_no]

Duke still fortunately controls their own destiny to the 1 seed, however they can only guarantee a split of the regular season with UVA.

The tiebreaker scenarios are as follows:

duke + uva = Duke
unc + uva = duke
Duke + UNC = UNC if UNC wins the other game, duke with a split
UNC + UVA + Duke = Duke with a split, UNC if UNC sweeps

If UVA wins at UL on saturday, it's highly likely they'll finish 16-2, making any tiebreaker scenario where UNC sweeps duke (requiring UNC to lose some other game) extremely likely, as Duke and UNC would be 15-3 in that case. What that means is that IF duke is in a tiebreaker scenario for the 1 seed, they will almost assuredly win it.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Duke still fortunately controls their own destiny to the 1 seed, however they can only guarantee a split of the regular season with UVA.

The tiebreaker scenarios are as follows:

duke + uva = Duke
unc + uva = duke
Duke + UNC = UNC if UNC wins the other game, duke with a split
UNC + UVA + Duke = Duke with a split, UNC if UNC sweeps

If UVA wins at UL on saturday, it's highly likely they'll finish 16-2, making any tiebreaker scenario where UNC sweeps duke (requiring UNC to lose some other game) extremely likely, as Duke and UNC would be 15-3 in that case. What that means is that IF duke is in a tiebreaker scenario for the 1 seed, they will almost assuredly win it.

So, if I am reading your chart right, if UNC and UVA tie at the top, the top seed goes to Duke?

Curious

[uh_no]

So, if I am reading your chart right, if UNC and UVA tie at the top, the top seed goes to Duke?

Curious

oh crap. lol.

No UVa wins in that case

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

oh crap. lol.

No UVa wins in that case

I figured. Just good natured fun.

[uh_no]

with their loss, UL is eliminated from 1 seed contention. They can still tie for the regular season, but lose all tiebreakers.If UNC and Duke win tonight, they are completely eliminated. VT is in the same boat.

[duke2x]

The ACC regular season race is basically going to come down to the Duke @ UNC game. UVA @ Syracuse, UNC-Syracuse, UNC @ Clemson, and Duke @VT are possible upsets, but I think the underdogs do lose those. Duke is the only team that controls its own destiny for the #1 overall seed.

I think Duke has the #6 seed overall guaranteed. I think a win over VT guarantees the double bye.

[uh_no]

with Duke and UNC winning, the minimum record to win the regular season is now 13-5. This means Louisville is eliminated from contention, and the top 3 are the only ones who can yet win the ACC outright.

In terms of the 1 seed, obviously the top 3 are in the mix.

VT is ALSO still in the mix. They need to win out, hope duke's lone remaining win comes across UNC, and hope that UVA loses out. VT at that point would split the title with Duke, and would hold the tiebreaker, getting the 1 seed.

FSU is NOT in the mix for the 1 seed as they lose the tiebreaker to all the top teams and cannot be in a tiebreaker scenario with VT as well as those teams.

Syracuse IS in the mix. Were they to win out, they would be 13-5. If UNC were to beat duke, they would have the tiebreaker over UNC. If Duke were to beat UNC, then it would go to record over the second place teams, which Syracuse would win as they'd have an undefeated record against UVA and UNC. There are some nutso scenarios where someone ELSE is in the mix for second place, but i won't enumerate them here.

So:
control destiny for 1 seed: Duke
Control destiny for regular season: Duke, UVA, UNC
In contention to win outright: duke, UVA, UNc
control destiny to win outright: no-one
Still can grasp a share for reglar season: Duke, UVA, UNC, VT, Syracuse, FSU
Still can get the 1 seed: Duke, UVA, UNC, VT, Syracuse

Despite popular belief, duke is STILL not guaranteed a double Bye.

Consider:
syracuse wins out: 13-5
VT wins out: 13-5
uva wins 1 more game against anyone: 13+
UNC beats duke: 13+
(Note: FSU could win out instead of VT and the result is the same)

Duke needs 1 more win to clinch the double bye. By the same logic, NOBODY has yet clinched a double bye as there are still 6 teams in contention to reach 13 wins, and only a strong guarantee that one of them will (duke or UNC)

[jv001]

with Duke and UNC winning, the minimum record to win the regular season is now 13-5. This means Louisville is eliminated from contention, and the top 3 are the only ones who can yet win the ACC outright.

In terms of the 1 seed, obviously the top 3 are in the mix.

VT is ALSO still in the mix. They need to win out, hope duke's lone remaining win comes across UNC, and hope that UVA loses out. VT at that point would split the title with Duke, and would hold the tiebreaker, getting the 1 seed.

FSU is NOT in the mix for the 1 seed as they lose the tiebreaker to all the top teams and cannot be in a tiebreaker scenario with VT as well as those teams.

Syracuse IS in the mix. Were they to win out, they would be 13-5. If UNC were to beat duke, they would have the tiebreaker over UNC. If Duke were to beat UNC, then it would go to record over the second place teams, which Syracuse would win as they'd have an undefeated record against UVA and UNC. There are some nutso scenarios where someone ELSE is in the mix for second place, but i won't enumerate them here.

So:
control destiny for 1 seed: Duke
Control destiny for regular season: Duke, UVA, UNC
In contention to win outright: duke, UVA, UNc
control destiny to win outright: no-one
Still can grasp a share for reglar season: Duke, UVA, UNC, VT, Syracuse, FSU
Still can get the 1 seed: Duke, UVA, UNC, VT, Syracuse

Despite popular belief, duke is STILL not guaranteed a double Bye.

Consider:
syracuse wins out: 13-5
VT wins out: 13-5
uva wins 1 more game against anyone: 13+
UNC beats duke: 13+
(Note: FSU could win out instead of VT and the result is the same)

Duke needs 1 more win to clinch the double bye. By the same logic, NOBODY has yet clinched a double bye as there are still 6 teams in contention to reach 13 wins, and only a strong guarantee that one of them will (duke or UNC)

I will say this and not worry about a jinx. We will beat Wake. Whoa, I just remember we seem to shoot better on the road. Well, I still say we beat Wake for the double bye, if we need the win. GoDuke!

[uh_no]

only relevant imoact from THIS game is FSU is eliminated from regular season contention with a loss.

[uh_no]

only relevant imoact from THIS game is FSU is eliminated from regular season contention with a loss.

FSU is still alive, until likely the end of the week.

As a diversion, assuming duke unc, and UVA are the top 3 seeds (in some order):

the current minimum record for the last bye is 11-7. This means that everyone through NCSU is technically still alive. For NCSU to snag the 4 seed the following needs to happen:

NCSU wins out, putting them at 11-7

UL finishes < 1-2
cuse finishes < 2-2 (NCSU has the tiebreaker)
FSU beats VT and then loses to wake. This gives NCSU the tiebreaker over them (they do not have it over VT)
VT loses out

FWIW FSU is in the driver's seat for the last double-bye, with wins over UL and Syracuse, and games yet against state and VT.

VT has lost to UL
cuse hase lost to VT and FSU, so is almost assuredly out of it...plus they have a rough schedule to bring it home
UL has lost to cuse and FSU

So FSU beating VT ALMOST locks it up as they'll have all the tie breaks.

If VT beats them, it's a BIT more interesting If FSU, VT, and UL all get there, UL gets it due to their win over UNC.

One of the interesting ones is a tiebreaker between Syracuse, UL, and VT. They. Cuse is 1-1 vs Duke, and everyone else is 0-1. So if Duke finishes ahead of UNC, cuse wins the tiebreak. if UNC finishes ahead of duke, UL wins it. If UNC and Duke are tied in the standings, then VT is eliminated (assuming duke wins this week) since they are the only ones without a win against either of those teams. Then cuse wins it head to head over UL.

In such a scenario, if VT were to beat duke, then VT has the tiebreaker if duke is ahead. UL has the tiebreaker if UNC is ahead, and if they are tied, we go to the record against the SEVENTH place team (the next best record after the three tied teams). this could be a lot of different teams.

[uh_no]

obviously a not-so-happy update after tonight

-with their loss, duke no longer controls their own destiny. Only UVA does, and at that, only to a share of the title
-syracuse is eliminated from contention for the regular season and a 1 seed
-VT is eliminated from contention for the 1 seed. UNC wins any tiebreaker involving VT

With syracuse' loss, duke has STILL not clinched the double bye. the scenarios that can see duke being the 5 seed are bolded. I believe this is an exhaustive list of all 3+ team combinations involving duke. Aside from this, there is also the obvious case where FSU wins out, and the hokies finish at 12-6 with duke.

3 team Combinations with Duke and VT
-Duke, VT, FSU
-- if VT beats FSU, VT is 2-0 in the round robin in this case, gets the 3 seed. Duke is 1-1 and gets the 4 seed
-- if FSU beats VT, they're each 1-1 in the round robin. Duke gets the 3 seed, and FSU gets the 4

-duke VT syracuse - duke is 1-2, VT is 2-0, cuse is 1-2 VT gets the 3, duke gets the 4 over syracuse due to their record against UVA

-duke VT UL - duke is 1-1, VT is 1-1, UL is 1-1. If UVA finishes outright leaders, Duke gets the 3 and UL gets the 4. If UNC finishes outright leaders, UL gets the 3, VT gets the 4, if UNC and UVA are tied in record, the Duke gets the 3 and UL gets the 4

3 team combinations with duke and FSU, not including VT
-Duke FSU syracuse - duke is 2-1, FSU is 1-1, Syracuse is 1-2. Duke gets the 3, FSU gets the 4

-duke fsu UL - duke is 2-0, FSU is 1-1, UL is 02. Duke gets the 3, FSU gets the 4

3 team combinatinos with duke and UL, not including VT and FSU
-duke UL Syracuse - duke is 2-1, UL is 0-2, syracuse is 2-1. UL Duke gets the 3 due to their record against UVA

4 team combinations
-duke VT fsu syracuse -
-- if FSU beats VT duke is 2-2, VT is 2-1, fsu is 2-1, syracuse is 1-3, FSU gets the 3, VT gets the 4. Duke gets the 5
-- if VT beats FSU, duke is 2-2, VT is 3-0, FSU is 1-2, syracuse is 1-3. VT gets the 4, duke gets the 4.

-duke vt fsu UL
--if FSU beats VT - duke is 2-1, VT is 1-2, FSU is 2-1, UL is 1-2. Duke gets the 3, fsu gets the 4
--if VT beats FSU - duke is 2-1, VT is 2-1, FSU is 1-2, UL is 1-2. VT gets the 3, duke gets the 4

-duke vt syracuse UL - duke is 2-2, vt is 2-1, UL is 1-2, cuse is 2-2. VT gets the 3 seed, duke gets the 4

-duke fsu syracuse UL - duke is 3-1, fsu is 2-1, cuse is 2-2, UL is 0-3. Duke getes the 3 seed, fsu gets the 4

5 team combinations
-duke vt fsu syracuse ul
--if FSU beats VT - duke is 3-2, vt is 2-2, fsu is 3-1, cuse is 2-3, UL is 1-3. FSU gets the 3 seed. duke gets the 4
--if VT beats FSU duke is 3-2, vt is 3-1, fsu is 2-2, cuse is 2-3, UL is 1-3. VT gets the 3 seed, duke gets the 4



So it would be HARD for duke to miss out on the double bye, as it also involves them losing out.

Please feel free to correct if you find an error. that's a lot of scenarios.