Results 1 to 19 of 19
  1. #1
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!

    2019 (and 2020) Baseball Hall of Fame

    So, I am sure most of you are aware of the HOF tracking website that tracks the votes of folks who make their ballots public. It is a pretty good way of knowing how the vote is going to come out each year. With about a week to go until the 2019 class is announced, almost half of all ballots have been made public and it looks like we are going to get a 4-man class in 2019.



    But, the really interesting thing is the guys who appear they are going to come close this year. Look at the first few names who seem like they are going to come up just short of the 75% needed to get into the Hall.

    Schilling, Clemens, and Bonds.

    Curt is controversial due to his political views, but getting into the Hall for him is not that big a deal... but Bonds and Clemens are the PED poster children, both arguably among the top players of all time who's careers have been badly tainted by rampant steroid use in their later years. In 2020, there is only one new candidate who will get a lot of votes, Derek Jeter, who will appear on 95%+ of ballots. The other new guys on the ballot are folks like Alphonso Soriano and Jeremy Giambi, who just aren't going to get many votes. So, for those HOF voters who like to put 5 or 7 or 10 guys on the ballot, suddenly Bonds and Clemens look a lot more viable.

    I really never thought it would happen, but it looks like we are likely to see two of the legendary cheaters in the game enter the Hall of Fame next year... wow!

    -Jason "personally, I think they belong in the Hall, but I think their plaques should be very clear about the allegations against them and how tainted they were when they retired" Evans
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Great symmetry with Curt. His failed 38 Studios venture ended up costing Rhode Island taxpayers, yes, $38 million (net after recoveries ). They probably got seventy five cents for the bloody sock.

  3. #3
    4 man class actually looks borderline. In each of the past few years, Mussina (like many other guys) has gotten about 6% - 7% more support on the public, pre-announcement ballots than he's gotten overall. So if that pattern holds, he'll be just out, or maybe just in. But he'll surely be in next year if he falls short this year. Clemens and Bonds also look to be close next year, but not necessarily in. If the pattern of public, pre-announcement ballots vs. total ballots holds, they'll both be in the mid 60's overall this year, probably about 5% more than they were last year. It might take more than one more year for them to get to 75%.

    Larry Walker is another big story - he's making a massive jump (< 40% last year), and with one year left, he needs that.
    Demented and sad, but social, right?

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    St. Louis
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    Great symmetry with Curt. His failed 38 Studios venture ended up costing Rhode Island taxpayers, yes, $38 million (net after recoveries ). They probably got seventy five cents for the bloody sock.
    Ketchup.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by rasputin View Post
    Ketchup.
    you're probably right on that.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Location
    Colorado
    Quote Originally Posted by Blue in the Face View Post
    4 man class actually looks borderline. In each of the past few years, Mussina (like many other guys) has gotten about 6% - 7% more support on the public, pre-announcement ballots than he's gotten overall. So if that pattern holds, he'll be just out, or maybe just in. But he'll surely be in next year if he falls short this year. Clemens and Bonds also look to be close next year, but not necessarily in. If the pattern of public, pre-announcement ballots vs. total ballots holds, they'll both be in the mid 60's overall this year, probably about 5% more than they were last year. It might take more than one more year for them to get to 75%.

    Larry Walker is another big story - he's making a massive jump (< 40% last year), and with one year left, he needs that.
    I saw Larry Walker play a lot at Coors Field. I'm torn about the rise in his votes. When healthy, at least at Coors Field, he was the most exciting player I have ever seen. He was a really good right fielder who was great at faking the catch of a ball going over his head to hold the base runner. He had a great arm and, boy, he could hit at Coors Field. Like most of the Rockies his batting numbers away from Coors Field were not nearly as good.

    He missed a lot of games though, for seemingly minor injuries. He shut it down early a couple of seasons when he had some injury and the Rockies, as usual, were out of contention. I could be wrong, these injuries could have been more significant that I thought they were. The general consensus in Denver was that he didn't play through injuries.

    I still like the old notion that a corner player should have 3,000 hits or 400 homers to be a lock for the Hall of Fame. Lots of exceptions but there seems to be an erosion of the old, unwritten standards for HOF entry.

    Todd Helton has somewhat similar stats to Larry Walker. Todd was an excellent fielding first baseman and no one ever questioned his heart or ability to play through injuries.

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by MartyClark View Post
    ... great at faking the catch of a ball going over his head to hold the base runner ...
    Please elaborate or post video. Don't believe I've ever seen this.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Location
    Colorado
    Quote Originally Posted by Reilly View Post
    Please elaborate or post video. Don't believe I've ever seen this.
    Probably a video somewhere. The Coors Field right field fence is fairly high. He's back up toward the fence as if he was going to catch the ball to hold the runner, then spin and catch it on the rebound off the wall and rifle a throw to the appropriate base.

    Had to look it up but the right field wall, which has the scoreboard for other teams, is 16 feet, 6 inches tall. Walker couldn't reach balls hit toward the top of that wall (he's not Zion) and would use the fake catch and spin on balls hit toward the top of the wall.
    Last edited by MartyClark; 01-20-2019 at 05:46 PM. Reason: further research

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by MartyClark View Post
    I still like the old notion that a corner player should have 3,000 hits or 400 homers to be a lock for the Hall of Fame. Lots of exceptions but there seems to be an erosion of the old, unwritten standards for HOF entry.
    We are in the era of the participation trophy.


    I should know I've still got them in an old box. And I absolutely stunk at baseball...

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    6 miles from Heaven, 10 miles from Hell
    Quote Originally Posted by MartyClark View Post

    I still like the old notion that a corner player should have 3,000 hits or 400 homers to be a lock for the Hall of Fame. Lots of exceptions but there seems to be an erosion of the old, unwritten standards for HOF entry.
    Those didn't used to be the "standards", but 3000 and 500 were considered automatic induction (likewise 300 wins.) Things got morphed for a while as the writers and especially the veterans committee were more stingy with induction votes.

    Tim Raines and Bert Blyleven are examples of advanced metrics helping with voting.

    (You did say "corner", which I would agree that RF, LF and 1B would tend to require higher numbers; perhaps that perception is one reason there's fewer 3Bs in the HoF than other positions.)

  11. #11
    I was wrong about Moose, and wrong about Mo. Moose gets in (barely), Mo gets 100%. Edgar and Halladay join them. Schilling, Clemens Bond all around 60%, Walker at 54% (not looking good for him).
    Demented and sad, but social, right?

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Seattle, WA
    Quote Originally Posted by DU82 View Post
    Those didn't used to be the "standards", but 3000 and 500 were considered automatic induction (likewise 300 wins.) Things got morphed for a while as the writers and especially the veterans committee were more stingy with induction votes.

    Tim Raines and Bert Blyleven are examples of advanced metrics helping with voting.

    (You did say "corner", which I would agree that RF, LF and 1B would tend to require higher numbers; perhaps that perception is one reason there's fewer 3Bs in the HoF than other positions.)
    I heard that the Harold Baines veterans committee (or whatever itís called now) induction was motivated in part by the belief that but for the 1981 and 1994-95 strikes, Baines would have had 3000 hits. I think thatís a little bit of a reach (he was 134 hits short), but itís the closest thing to a semi rational explanation Iíve heard for inducting him.

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Orlando, FL
    Quote Originally Posted by pfrduke View Post
    I heard that the Harold Baines veterans committee (or whatever itís called now) induction was motivated in part by the belief that but for the 1981 and 1994-95 strikes, Baines would have had 3000 hits. I think thatís a little bit of a reach (he was 134 hits short), but itís the closest thing to a semi rational explanation Iíve heard for inducting him.
    Yeah that math doesn't add up. Teams missed about 45 games in 1981 and 40 in 1994. That's 85 games total. If we assume about 4 AB per game Baines would have to hit almost .400 (134/340=.394) to get 134 hits in the missed games

    Not likely for a lifetime .289 hitter whose highest hit total was in 1985 when had 198 hits in 160 games and hit .309.
    Coach K on Kyle Singler - "What position does he play? ... He plays winner."

    "Duke is never the underdog" - Quinn Cook

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!

    Unanimous

    I've seen folks wondering how Mo got 100% of the vote while many other recent greats did not. I mean, presumably the same fools who did not vote for Chipper, Junior, Randy Johnson, and Maddux the past 4 years are still voting this year. Is there really a case that Rivera's career was better than those other players who came close to 100%?

    I think the argument for Rivera over all the others may be that he is the unquestioned best ever at his position. For every other position there is a debate... but not at closer/reliever. There is Mo and then there is everyone else. That said, the relative value of a reliever as compared to a starting pitcher or an everyday position player would seem to mute some of this argument.

    Anyway, I suppose we will never know why 3 voters chose to not vote for Griffey but did vote for Mo. Oh well. However, I have a suggestion to consider as the hall moves forward. I think there should be a rule that if you donít vote for someone who gets 97% or more of the vote, you forfeit your voting rights. Anyone that out of touch with reality should not get a vote in the future. The fact that some of these players missed out on unanimous inclusion is sorta silly and shows some voters don't deserve the honor of voting.

    -Jason "Barry and Roger each moved up about 2 percentage points from last year...but at 59%, they are still a good ways from getting in" Evans
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    North of Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    I've seen folks wondering how Mo got 100% of the vote while many other recent greats did not. I mean, presumably the same fools who did not vote for Chipper, Junior, Randy Johnson, and Maddux the past 4 years are still voting this year. Is there really a case that Rivera's career was better than those other players who came close to 100%?

    I think the argument for Rivera over all the others may be that he is the unquestioned best ever at his position. For every other position there is a debate... but not at closer/reliever. There is Mo and then there is everyone else. That said, the relative value of a reliever as compared to a starting pitcher or an everyday position player would seem to mute some of this argument.

    Anyway, I suppose we will never know why 3 voters chose to not vote for Griffey but did vote for Mo. Oh well. However, I have a suggestion to consider as the hall moves forward. I think there should be a rule that if you donít vote for someone who gets 97% or more of the vote, you forfeit your voting rights. Anyone that out of touch with reality should not get a vote in the future. The fact that some of these players missed out on unanimous inclusion is sorta silly and shows some voters don't deserve the honor of voting.

    -Jason "Barry and Roger each moved up about 2 percentage points from last year...but at 59%, they are still a good ways from getting in" Evans
    The thing that amazes me about certain players not getting votes is that voting for the Hall of Fame is a binary action - you are either voting for someone or you are not. So they are very consciously excluding people. It would be different if one could say "I vote 100% Mariano, I vote 98% Griffey, I vote 46% Larry Walker." The same logic applies for people who vote for some of the players who only get a few % of the vote - I often have trouble believing that some of these guys even get 10% of the vote.

    As a lifelong Yankees fan, I am very excited that Mo got the unanimous ballot, and I am also happy to see Mussina go in. Mo was truly the best ever at his position, showed dominance most of the time, and performed in the post-season (let's not discuss 2001).

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    A couple other random notes...

    In his first year of eligibility, Andruw Jones only got 7.1% and came dangerously close to being dropped from future ballots. While I don't think Jones is a super likely HOFer, I think his case is not trivial. One of the finest defensive CFers in the history of the game (10 time gold glover) and a guy who had a lot of power (434 career homeruns). He played most of his career for a Braves team that was always in the playoffs, but rarely did much once getting there. Still, they were one of the top teams in baseball for a long time by having great pitchers and defense and Jones was a huge part of that.

    Anyway, he's never making the Hall because defense just isn't valued all that much, though I sorta wonder how his case is any worse than Ozzie Smith's case for being in the Hall. I suppose SS is a more important defensive position than CF, but not by huge, huge amounts.

    Also wanted to note that Kerry Wood showed up on the ballot this year. He got 2 HOF votes and will never show up again. There was a time when I would have put large sums of money on him being a HOF member someday. I would have lost that bet.

    -Jason "this page has all the vote totals... some interesting names on there" Evans
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    St. Louis
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    A couple other random notes...

    In his first year of eligibility, Andruw Jones only got 7.1% and came dangerously close to being dropped from future ballots. While I don't think Jones is a super likely HOFer, I think his case is not trivial. One of the finest defensive CFers in the history of the game (10 time gold glover) and a guy who had a lot of power (434 career homeruns). He played most of his career for a Braves team that was always in the playoffs, but rarely did much once getting there. Still, they were one of the top teams in baseball for a long time by having great pitchers and defense and Jones was a huge part of that.

    Anyway, he's never making the Hall because defense just isn't valued all that much, though I sorta wonder how his case is any worse than Ozzie Smith's case for being in the Hall. I suppose SS is a more important defensive position than CF, but not by huge, huge amounts.

    Also wanted to note that Kerry Wood showed up on the ballot this year. He got 2 HOF votes and will never show up again. There was a time when I would have put large sums of money on him being a HOF member someday. I would have lost that bet.

    -Jason "this page has all the vote totals... some interesting names on there" Evans
    Andruw Jones's career began when he was very young, but his decline was very quick. After the 2006 season, he sort of went off a cliff. He did have some later utility as a part-time player for the Yankees.

    Three other players I would once have put large sums on to make the HOF (and who didn't make it for non-steroid reasons):

    Dwight Gooden
    Darryl Strawberry
    Dale Murphy

    Murphy is another whose decline phase was steep. Gooden and Strawberry, of course, had other issues. I first saw Strawberry in 1981, playing for Lynchburg against the Durham Bulls, and he looked plenty special even when striking out.

    In looking this up (the Lynchburg team), I noted that Strawberry had three teammates that year who went on to have significant post-playing careers in MLB: Billy Beane, Lloyd McClendon, and Jose Oquendo.

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    New York City
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    A couple other random notes...

    In his first year of eligibility, Andruw Jones only got 7.1% and came dangerously close to being dropped from future ballots. While I don't think Jones is a super likely HOFer, I think his case is not trivial. One of the finest defensive CFers in the history of the game (10 time gold glover) and a guy who had a lot of power (434 career homeruns). He played most of his career for a Braves team that was always in the playoffs, but rarely did much once getting there. Still, they were one of the top teams in baseball for a long time by having great pitchers and defense and Jones was a huge part of that.

    Anyway, he's never making the Hall because defense just isn't valued all that much, though I sorta wonder how his case is any worse than Ozzie Smith's case for being in the Hall. I suppose SS is a more important defensive position than CF, but not by huge, huge amounts.

    Also wanted to note that Kerry Wood showed up on the ballot this year. He got 2 HOF votes and will never show up again. There was a time when I would have put large sums of money on him being a HOF member someday. I would have lost that bet.

    -Jason "this page has all the vote totals... some interesting names on there" Evans
    I think you mixed up the lists from last year and this year - or the links. Jones was eligible last year and got 7.1. This year he got 7.5.

    As far as guys on this list who could move up - I would keep an eye on Pettitte. Mussina helps Pettitte, as does Pettitte's playoff performances. One guy who is confusing is Gary Sheffield. Sheffield hit .292, with over 500 home runs and almost 1700 RBI. His career OPS was .902 and his OPS+ is 140. His career OBP was .393. Those are HOF caliber stats. But he's been on the ballot for 5 years with little movement, which his not a good sign. He would definitely be in the Hall of Very Good. Just not sure people think he was ever one of the greats.
    Singler is IRON

    I STILL GOT IT! -- Ryan Kelly, March 2, 2013

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by mr. synellinden View Post
    As far as guys on this list who could move up - I would keep an eye on Pettitte. Mussina helps Pettitte, as does Pettitte's playoff performances.
    Guys who start with 10% don't go on to make it in on the writers' ballot.
    Demented and sad, but social, right?

Similar Threads

  1. Baseball Hall of Fame - 2017
    By JasonEvans in forum Off Topic
    Replies: 62
    Last Post: 01-22-2017, 10:21 AM
  2. Baseball Hall of Fame, 2014
    By JasonEvans in forum Off Topic
    Replies: 88
    Last Post: 01-25-2014, 03:51 AM
  3. Presumed steroid users and the baseball Hall of Fame
    By JasonEvans in forum Off Topic
    Replies: 31
    Last Post: 07-06-2012, 10:36 AM
  4. Baseball Hall of Fame
    By JasonEvans in forum Off Topic
    Replies: 33
    Last Post: 01-13-2010, 10:01 AM
  5. Baseball Hall of Fame discussion
    By Angel in forum Off Topic
    Replies: 84
    Last Post: 08-25-2009, 12:54 PM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •