MBB: Duke v. Syracuse (Mon, Jan 14, 7 pm ET, ESPN) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Duke now -17.5 on Vegas Insider. Which to me points to Zion cleared to play. I hope !

I read somewhere (don't recall where) that Duke said that if there is no formal announcement, Zion is playing. Obviously, that formal announcement could happen at 6:59 pm after he warms up and doesn't feel good, but in general, I am assuming that no news is good news.

I am also nervous about minimal time to prepare for Syracuse's unique defense, particularly with Zion at least somewhat focused on healing (pardon my pun). But the combination of having a number of guys who can hit the mid-range jumper from the foul line that often helps in breaking the zone, combined with Tre being a remarkably smart point guard, I am hoping for the best. All things being equal, having the game Tuesday would have made life a lot easier, but that's life. I'm sure one of the assistants spent plenty of time scouting this one and it is just a matter of providing the information to the team and implementing the plan.

[SavDukeGrad]

A couple of thoughts. A poster up thread mentioned that Tre played 40 minutes on Saturday. RJ also played 40 minutes. It was such a physical game - I hope those guys have had time to recover.

And I think Zion will play. While I’m not an ophthalmologist, I did have a corneal abrasion a few years ago. I was amazed how fast it healed. I know it all depends on the severity of the injury, and mine was not severe, but I was fine after 24 hours with a bandage contact. FWIW

[CDu]

So, I think most are familiar with what Syracuse wants to do. They play the 2-3 zone as well as just about anyone besides last year's Duke team. They are long, athletic, and really aggressive in the zone. Offensively, they aren't as skilled, as Boeheim has generally preferred to take guys who fit his defensive philosophy over offensive players. Not that they don't have weapons, just that it's a defense-first philosophy there.

The Orange play a very slow tempo (#277 nationally in pace). Defensively, there are really only two things that they don't do at an elite level (rebound and foul). They force a lot of turnovers, block a lot of shots, and force a lot of difficult/contested shots. Teams shoot poorly from 3, poorly from 2, and (perhaps coincidentally) poorly from the FT line as well. They are a terrific defensive team. Offensively, they are kind of the inverse: the only things they do well are offensive rebound and draw fouls. They are an especially poor 3pt shooting team. When they play well, it's a pretty ugly game.

Centers: Paschal Chukwu (7'2", 228lb fifth-year senior) is the team's first option at center, although the Orange have recently gone small to start games. Chukwu is a strong offensive rebounder and shotblocker as you might expect from his size. He's a decent defensive rebounder as well, and even picks up some steals. He's fairly raw offensively, though he isn't awful from the line. He draws a lot of fouls around the rim, primarily off of lobs and offensive rebounds. He's definitely a secondary offensive player, not unlike Christ Koumadje from FSU. But like Koumadje, if you lose track of him, he will dunk on you. Also like Koumadje, Chukwu is pretty foul prone, averaging 3.1 fouls per 18 mpg. Behind Chukwu is Bourama Sidibe (6'10", 205lb sophomore). Sidibe is basically a lesser version of Chukwu across the board. As noted, the team has started the last 3 games going small. This is perhaps in part because their two bigs average 5.6 fouls in just under 30 mpg combined. But the duo does provide 8.5 rebounds and 2.5 blocks in that time, which is pretty impressive given the pace Syracuse plays.

Forwards: The forwards and wings have almost always been a strength of Syracuse teams. This is no exception. Oshae Brissett (6'8", 210lb sophomore from Canada) is the headliner. Brissett is a very strong rebounder but a streaky offensive player. He is capable of having a big night, but also capable of a real stinker. So far this season, it has been more of the latter than the former as he's shot poorly from both 3pt range and 2pt range. Still, given Syracuse's limitations offensively as a team, he'll get plenty of looks. Terrific athlete and certainly not lacking for confidence. Though if Williamson plays, we'll have the athletes to hopefully control him. Alongside Brissett as a co-headliner is (and sometimes a starter in a 3-forward lineup) is Elijah Hughes (6'6", 215lb junior transfer from ECU). Hughes has really stepped up in his first season playing with the Orange. He's a much-improved outside shooter and a terrific athlete. He is fairly raw though from a skills perspective, and doesn't necessarily get quite as much out of his physical tools as he should. He's a former football player, so he's extremely strong to go along with good quickness and hops. The third man in the forward rotation (and recently reinserted into the starting lineup) Marek Dolezaj (6'10", 180lb sophomore from Slovakia). Dolezaj is still a work in progress, but provides great length for them along the baseline. He's super skinny, and isn't a great rebounder or shotblocker. But he does get a fair amount of steals, and has pretty good shooting range. He's mostly a catch-and-shoot guy at this stage.

Wings: Tyus Battle (6'6", 205lb junior) is the team's biggest star. He's a super athlete with pretty good ballhandling skills and is not at all shy about taking the big shots. Battle has gotten a bit more efficient even as his 3pt shooting has continued to regress. He's learned to take it to the basket more and settle for 3s less often. That said, despite being a low-percentage shooter, he is a bit like RJ Barrett in that he can get hot and explode for big games from 3. He's the most dangerous player on the Orange, and will likely be playing in the NBA next year. Jalen Carey (6'3", 170lb freshman) is a backup combo guard for the Orange. He's an upper-tier recruit with terrific ballhandling skills and athleticism, but a very poor jumpshot. Carey can get to the rim and finish there though, but he's a liability from 3. Carey will share ballhandling duties with Battle when the Orange's PG is off the floor. Last and least is Buddy Boeheim (6'5", 190lb freshman). Boeheim is a decent outside shooter if left open. But he mainly plays a a depth fill-in for the Orange and really isn't ready to compete at the ACC level. And yes, he's the coach's son.

Guards: Frank Howard (6'5", 205lb senior) is the PG. Howard is a big strong kid and a decent passer at PG. But he's always struggled to shoot well. Last year he took a ton of shots mainly because the team couldn't shoot, and averaged over 14ppg as a result. But he's struggled this year, shooting just 26% from 3 and taking most of his shots from deep as well. As you might expect from his shooting profile, he also doesn't draw fouls, as in the halfcourt he mainly defers to Battle, Brissett, and Carey. His most value is on the defensive end, where his length is a challenge.

Basically, aside from Carey, everyone on the Orange is 6'5" or taller and with long arms. It's a team ideally suited to play zone, and they play it well. I really hope Williamson is able to play, because his ability to catch at the FT line and attack quickly from there will likely give Syracuse some fits. But it is likely going to be a frustrating game offensively. The plus side is that hopefully it will be a frustrating game for them offensively as well, and we can emerge with a victory. But playing against the zone with no prep time is not an optimal situation at all.

[fuse]

I hope I am wrong, 17 sounds way high.

I’d be happy with any W, and expecting maybe a 5 point margin.

[Troublemaker]

For what it's worth, Vegas has Duke -17 in most spots I'm seeing right now. (I think this means Vegas thinks Zion is playing). Although, Duke was a 7.5 point favorite Saturday at FSU and won by 2. With a healthy Zion tonight, I could see Duke covering the spread and winning something like 82-64.
Let's Go Duke!

As the winner of back to back Majors on the Degenerates Tour, I would advise against that prediction.

I do think Duke will ultimately eke out a win, but I'd (obviously) be surprised if we covered. I would also not take any comfort in the point spread. When we previously lost to Syracuse in Cameron in the same situation, we were 11.5-pt favorites.

The Syracuse and UVA games may both "count the same," but I don't see how anyone can argue that Syracuse merits as much concern as UVA. Yeah, we may be a bit mentally tired, but Syracuse also played Saturday, plus they
have to play on the road.

There are some people on here (not me) who believe that what we post on DBR affects game outcomes. Again, I am not one of those folks, but it is interesting to note that according to their religion, you basically just doomed Duke tonight. You had a chance to repent for looking ahead to UVA, but instead you double-downed. Were I one of those religious fanatics, I would totally blame you for a loss tonight.

Tre played 40 minutes Saturday so I predict JGold subs in at the 8:30 point in the first half and plays roughly 1minute while Tre gets a breather. RJ has to be the man in the middle against the zone. He’s the only guy who can drive or shoot the 15 footer. With Zion you know he’s going to drive. I’d drop the ball in to RJ with Cam/Jack and Tre on the wing, Bolden /Javin on the baseline and Zion trailing toward the opposite baseline for a lob. RJ has to make the right pass if he’s doubled.

Yuck. I hope we pass up on shooting 15-footers tonight. That's what Syracuse wants (as opposed to Zion and RJ attacking off the dribble after catching at the FT line). Even if RJ is good at shooting the 15-footer (which I'm not sure he is), what do you think his percentage would be? 45%? Which produces an offensive efficiency of 90. Yuck. Incidentally, according to hoop-math, RJ is so far at 35.6% on 2-pt jumpers this season: https://hoop-math.com/Duke2019.php

[budwom]

I'm happy to take the blame for the loss should there be one.
I definitely take no team for granted, clearly we could lose...it's just that an emotional, physical contest at FSU has seeming become (for some) tantamount to landing on Iwo Jima.

Should we aspire to advancing in March (and beyond), two day turnarounds against tough teams will be required. Tonight seems like an opportunity to experience that.
(I've heard Coach K state that "young kids don't get tired." I don't really believe that, I doubt he does either, but the point is you regroup and play again.)

In short, I'd rather play Syracuse on two days rest than UVA.

[jipops]

Basically, aside from Carey, everyone on the Orange is 6'5" or taller and with long arms. It's a team ideally suited to play zone, and they play it well. I really hope Williamson is able to play, because his ability to catch at the FT line and attack quickly from there will likely give Syracuse some fits. But it is likely going to be a frustrating game offensively. The plus side is that hopefully it will be a frustrating game for them offensively as well, and we can emerge with a victory. But playing against the zone with no prep time is not an optimal situation at all.

I also believe this will be a very ugly game to watch. Combine a zone from a desperate team with mental fatigue coming out of a hard fought win on the road just 2 days before... this one could very easily be an upset. I'm just as concerned about our defense tonight. I know Syracuse has struggled on offense, but if there is a game to get it going for them this is the one. And we've been giving up a lot of offensive boards in the last couple games.

[COYS]

Yuck. I hope we pass up on shooting 15-footers tonight. That's what Syracuse wants (as opposed to Zion and RJ attacking off the dribble after catching at the FT line). Even if RJ is good at shooting the 15-footer (which I'm not sure he is), what do you think his percentage would be? 45%? Which produces an offensive efficiency of 90. Yuck. Incidentally, according to hoop-math, RJ is so far at 35.6% on 2-pt jumpers this season: https://hoop-math.com/Duke2019.php

I agree with this. If Syracuse plays the zone correctly, it will bait us into taking those mid-range twos. If indeed RJ is the man in the middle of the zone for Duke, I hope he attacks from the key, draws a defender or two (or three), and dishes to Zion, Marques, or Javin, who are lurking on the baseline, ready to throw down some powerful dunks.

Even though we are not a consistent team from three point range, I think we are built to beat the 'Cuse zone. We have players who can attack the zone and draw defenders, and we have players who can finish at the rim. We just need to make smart decisions against a unique defense, which will be the biggest challenge.

I'm actually hopeful that we can find a way to free up Tre to get into the paint off the dribble with some clever screens on the perimeter. I trust Tre's decision-making and I like the idea of overloading the zone with Tre in the paint, Zion on the baseline on the strong side, Cam/RJ in the corner and RJ/Cam popping to the wing. Tre can either take it himself, hit Cam in the corner, dish to RJ, lob to Zion or lob to Javin/Marques on the weakside if the defenders overplay too much.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I also believe this will be a very ugly game to watch. Combine a zone from a desperate team with mental fatigue coming out of a hard fought win on the road just 2 days before... this one could very easily be an upset. I'm just as concerned about our defense tonight. I know Syracuse has struggled on offense, but if there is a game to get it going for them this is the one. And we've been giving up a lot of offensive boards in the last couple games.

Not totally different than last season NCAAT game V Cuse...ugly, uncomfortable, the mental situation of having to beat a team you've already beaten to stay alive...

[Truth&Justise]

Not totally different than last season NCAAT game V Cuse...ugly, uncomfortable, the mental situation of having to beat a team you've already beaten to stay alive...

For what it's worth, the regular season matchup against Syracuse was even uglier.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

For what it's worth, the regular season matchup against Syracuse was even uglier.

Yes indeed....that was the ugliest game of the year, but it wasn't very close, and it wasn't "win or go home" pressure. That NCAAT pressure uglifies everything...

[Old Dukie]

Well lots of reasons to be concerned about this one. First- we don’t know about Zion. His presence is key for the zone. Second- this is a very fast turnaround - Cam was cramping yesterday and is likely sore today- I expect others as well- so rest is key. Third, the Orange zone is not easy to navigate the first time you see it. This is an experienced Orange team. Four - Cam has been inconsistent so expecting back to back great games in uncertain. Five, RJ loves to drive and the Orange will take that away. Finally, foul trouble is possible if Zion does not play. So I am glad this is at home as the crowd will provide energy- but this will be a tough game for at least a half.

If Zion doesn't play, it's a must that DeLaurier, Bolden, and White step up....they looked weak as fill-ins when Zion went out against FSU. Perhaps time to insert David's kid in place of DeLaurier???

[Kedsy]

Perhaps time to insert David's kid in place of DeLaurier???

Seriously?

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Seriously?

I'm not suggesting by any means what the other poster is saying...to start Rob in front of Javin. What I would like to know is what are his weaknesses? He's very tall. He can jump. He can hit a 3. Clearly there's a reason he doesn't play much...but that reason isn't as obvious to me as it is with others who don't play much. I'm merely asking to be educated here.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

Combine a zone from a desperate team with mental fatigue coming out of a hard fought win on the road just 2 days before...

The team won't be mentally fatigued after winning the game. Had we lost, maybe, but we won. They're still excited and happy, and that's the antidote for mental fatigue!

If any coach knows how to coach a team against the Syracuse zone, it's K. After all, JimBo taught it to K! That's what friends are for...

[AZLA]

I'm happy to take the blame for the loss should there be one.
I definitely take no team for granted, clearly we could lose...it's just that an emotional, physical contest at FSU has seeming become (for some) tantamount to landing on Iwo Jima.

Should we aspire to advancing in March (and beyond), two day turnarounds against tough teams will be required. Tonight seems like an opportunity to experience that.
(I've heard Coach K state that "young kids don't get tired." I don't really believe that, I doubt he does either, but the point is you regroup and play again.)

In short, I'd rather play Syracuse on two days rest than UVA.

I take the blame for the Gonzaga loss. Our section was yelling so incredibility loud at the refs and cheering so hard for Duke to complete the comeback that during the last commercial time out -- we shouted down the PA screaming "Let's go Duke!" -- that they couldn't do the little fun time shootout game. I'm pretty sure that's why the refs swallowed their whistle the rest of the game . Our bad, sorry.

[Kedsy]

I'm not suggesting by any means what the other poster is saying...to start Rob in front of Javin. What I would like to know is what are his weaknesses? He's very tall. He can jump. He can hit a 3. Clearly there's a reason he doesn't play much...but that reason isn't as obvious to me as it is with others who don't play much. I'm merely asking to be educated here.

I often think Justin could be a starter on some of the low-major teams we play in November/December, maybe even a star -- a 6'9" guy who can dunk, block shots, and hit the three.

But at the ACC level, he's not capable of hunting his own offense, doesn't shoot well enough to be a three-point specialist, and most importantly is neither big, strong, or athletic enough to effectively guard high-major interior players nor quick enough to effectively guard high-major perimeter players. Put another way, the occasional offense he brings is not nearly enough to overcome his defensive deficiencies at this level.

[AZLA]

If Zion doesn't play, it's a must that DeLaurier, Bolden, and White step up...they looked weak as fill-ins when Zion went out against FSU. Perhaps time to insert David's kid in place of DeLaurier???

I think Zion, if he plays, should take it easy. I wouldn't be surprised if his mins limited. Maybe Alex and Jack a few more minutes, shooting more from outside, along with Tre, RJ and Cam. DeLaurier and Bolden need to get more physical inside on the boards.

[Matches]

I think Zion, if he plays, should take it easy. I wouldn't be surprised if his mins limited.

Why would he need to take it easy after an eye injury? If he can't see, he shouldn't play at all. If he can see, why would we need to limit his minutes?

[Kedsy]

I think Zion, if he plays, should take it easy. I wouldn't be surprised if his mins limited.

Why? Either he's still in pain or still seeing double, in which case he shouldn't play at all. Or he's fine except for a bloodshot eye. It's not like playing can exacerbate the injury (unless he gets poked in the eye again; and if he's worried about that, I'm sure the training staff can find some goggles for him).


EDIT: Matches beat me to it.