I think this is a game where we will need to rely on the bench/role players more. Regardless of Zion's status we will need more than 6 points and better rebounding from this group. None of these guys played more than 25 minutes at FSU.
The illegal* turnaround between games, a physical and emotional FSU game, and possibly Zion's injury make this game defense first. If we can get the TO/fast break machine rolling, we should win this one by double digits. We can't rely on shooting +13% shooting from 3 for the next 2 games.
*ESPN has the gold so it makes the rules. Duke-Syracuse has to be its #2 cash cow behind Duke-UNC.
Duke’s lowest point total this year is 69 (against Texas Tech). Can Cuse score 70?
"Amazing what a minute can do."
Duke scored 34.5% of its points against EMU via the fast break. Against their zone in the half court, our points per possession was a pedestrian 1.0 or so. I suspect the key to success against Syracuse will also be to take advantage of the fast break.
Other than Jack White, none of those guys have played more than 25 minutes in any game this season (except Javin who exceeded 25 minutes once, with 27 minutes against Texas Tech). And even Jack White averages almost exactly 25 mpg. I'm not sure what you expected against FSU and (especially if Zion plays) I can't imagine why you think the Syracuse game would require us to rely on our bench and role players more than any other game.
The key is who controls the pace, something Duke has been very good at this season. Below is a table showing all of our opponents (including this coming week's opponents Syracuse and Virginia) and each opponent's adjusted possessions per game (from KenPom, for the season, including their game against Duke, which means their pace against everyone else was even slower), along with the number of possessions in the game against Duke.
As you can see, we've played a lot of slow teams this season (including our next two games, eight of our 17 opponents have been #230 or slower nationally in adjusted tempo; only four of our opponents have been in the top 100, tempo-wise). But, fast or slow, every team we've played has had a faster game against us than their average. And not just a little faster. All but three have been at least five possessions faster. Perhaps not coincidentally, those three games were the only games Duke has played with a single-digit final point margin.
This is going to be a big deal against Syracuse and Virginia (the third-slowest and slowest teams Duke will have played this season to date). If Duke wins the battle to control the pace, that gives us a huge advantage and a much better chance to win the game. If we're playing at their slow pace, it means fewer Duke fast break opportunities and more Duke offensive halfcourt sets, something that isn't our biggest strength.Code:Opponent Opp adj pace Poss Diff Margin Virginia 60.9 ??? ??? ?? EMU 63.8 72.5 8.7 38 Syracuse 67.1 ??? ??? ?? SD State 67.4 72.5 5.1 26 Hartford 67.6 72.7 5.1 30 Tex Tech 68.0 81.5 13.5 11 Clemson 68.2 77.3 9.1 19 Princeton 68.2 74.9 6.7 51 UK 68.7 82.4 13.7 34 Indiana 68.8 78.8 10.0 21 WF 69.3 74.5 5.2 22 Auburn 69.6 70.7 1.1 6 Stetson 69.9 81.9 12.0 64 FSU 70.9 72.3 1.4 2 Yale 72.0 83.0 11.0 33 Gonzaga 72.0 72.2 0.2 -2 Army 72.4 78.3 5.9 22
Which I suppose is a long-winded way of saying you're not asking exactly the right question. If Duke controls the tempo and we have, e.g., a 72 to 75 possession game, Syracuse scoring 70 points probably won't cut it. If Syracuse controls the tempo and scores 70+ in a 65 to 67 possession game, it could be a tight one.
Tre played 40 minutes Saturday so I predict JGold subs in at the 8:30 point in the first half and plays roughly 1minute while Tre gets a breather. RJ has to be the man in the middle against the zone. He’s the only guy who can drive or shoot the 15 footer. With Zion you know he’s going to drive. I’d drop the ball in to RJ with Cam/Jack and Tre on the wing, Bolden /Javin on the baseline and Zion trailing toward the opposite baseline for a lob. RJ has to make the right pass if he’s doubled.
No way. I would much rather play Cuse on Tuesday (tomorrow) than today. I'll give back a day of prep for UVA to give Zion another day to heal, to give our entire team more ice baths or what-have-you after a physical game against FSU, and most importantly, to give our coaches another day to prep the freshmen on the Syracuse zone.
Why needlessly risk the Cuse game to get more prep time for UVA? Both games count the same. Also, I'm 90% sure (and 100% sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong) that since Syracuse joined the ACC, they have a better record against Duke than UVA. I can remember two losses in the Carrier Dome and one loss in Cameron (more on that in a second). For UVA, I can only remember the loss in the ACC Championship game and last year's loss in Cameron.
You may think because UVA has all these regular season titles that they must've beaten Duke a lot. But nope. We have a really nice record against them, and our head-to-head against UVA has never cost us a regular season title. It's really the non-UVA games (like playing Syracuse at home) that we should win but end up losing that cost us regular season titles.
As promised up-post, let's talk about that loss to Syracuse in Cameron. It was the only other time that we've played Syracuse on a Monday after a game on Saturday. Here's the box score. Duke was horrible offensively that game, and Duke fans complained about how Duke didn't seemingly have a plan to attack the zone except for chucking up threes. Well, we probably could've used more than one day of preparation for that unique, aggressive zone. (The one thing about chucking up threes is that you at least avoid turnovers.) Even the zones that our freshmen saw in high school won't prepare them for Cuse's zone. It's almost anti-knowledge to have because Cuse's zone is so much more aggressive going after turnovers and they bring those wings up so high.
To exacerbate things further, this Duke team has probably practiced zone less than any recent Duke team since we're so good in m2m. We're also coming off an emotional buzzer-beater win against FSU (do you think our guys slept well Saturday night, or were they reliving that awesome win in their minds?) in a game that was very physical. This is just a horrible spot in our schedule. I'm not really complaining -- every team has good spots and bad spots in their schedule. I'm just saying that we should recognize this for what it is.
I'm completely serious here. If we escape tonight with even a 1-pt win to get to 4-0 in the ACC, I'll be thrilled.
For what it's worth, Vegas has Duke -17 in most spots I'm seeing right now. (I think this means Vegas thinks Zion is playing). Although, Duke was a 7.5 point favorite Saturday at FSU and won by 2. With a healthy Zion tonight, I could see Duke covering the spread and winning something like 82-64.
Let's Go Duke!
Last edited by CameronDuke; 01-14-2019 at 08:57 AM.
Duke now -17.5 on Vegas Insider. Which to me points to Zion cleared to play. I hope !
The Syracuse and UVA games may both "count the same," but I don't see how anyone can argue that Syracuse merits as much concern as UVA. Yeah, we may be a bit mentally tired, but Syracuse also played Saturday, plus they
have to play on the road.
The only quibble I have about your Tre comment is that I think JGold will sub in for zero minutes.
As for the RJ comment, I actually am hoping Zion actually plays and that he is the man in the middle on offense because he's got the size to make a big target to receive the ball, I like his ability to get to the rim from that spot with his elusive body control, and I like him passing out of that spot. Of course, if it's RJ, I am sure he'll do a fine job, too.
More than anything, this is a bit of a "let's see if you guys are made of stern stuff" challenge. So far, what seems to mark this team as "special", aside from its Rolls Royce talent, is its grit, toughness and bravery. They seem immune to "trap games", and this game would seem to offer the perfect excuse to lose for all the reasons mentioned in this thread. If they can go out and play hard, smart and focused...they should win, and they'll earn more "special" points.
I've seen one Syracuse game this season, it was when Old Dominion went to the Carrier Dome in December to play. They really stifled ODU in the first half with zone. However in the second half ODU came out and erased a double digit deficit and ended up winning the game. Big win for mid-major ODU at the time as Syracuse was ranked either 24 or 25..
Now based on seeing that one game, Duke should easily handle Syracuse. The game is in Cameron and Duke has players that are way more superior to the ones ODU trotted out there. Even if Zion doesn't play, Cam and RJ should be able to camp out at the foul line in the middle of that zone and make them pay on the way to a 15 pt victory tonight.
Maybe this could be a trap game.... But I just don't see it.
Syracuse has the same short turnaround we do and they have to travel from NY. Their game on Saturday I guess was not as physical as ours, but our biggest bruiser "rested" for half of that game. Physically we should be fine - from an emotional standpoint we'll have to move on from the FSU ending but that would be true whenever we played next.
It definitely is a trap game but unless we lay an egg we should win relatively comfortably.
I'm really hoping that Zion plays in this game. I don't want to see him miss a game and half before playing Virginia. That's too long for the rust to wear off and I don't want to see us get in a big hole and have to dig out of it. Especially against the Cavaliers. But first let's beat the Syracuse Orange. GoDuke!