Phase III - the First Part of the ACC Season
Phase III, after two weeks without hoops, takes on the first six games of the ACC season, beginning with Clemson at home on Saturday, January 5. We, Jason Evans and Sage, have about a dozen topics and questions on each topic. And we look forward to your views.
Health. Duke runs an up-tempo offense, triggered by steals, blocks and rebounds from a very aggressive defense. Can we continue at such a pace and effort without injuries? Assemble your good luck charms – we are hoping to stay healthy. It is worth noting that Duke’s reliance on freshmen makes the health question particularly relevant. The volume of games and practices in college versus the high school level is a significant change for freshmen. In past seasons we have generally seen the “freshman fatigue” bug bite players as we enter the middle of the ACC season. We don’t expect this to be a major concern during this phase of the year, but it is something to keep an eye upon.
The ACC Season Arrives. The schedule will send Duke to hostile arenas and welcome teams to Cameron that have played here before. In conference play it is said there is higher intensity and that teams are far more familiar with each other. Only partially true with Duke, as we turn our lineup over every year, by sending our best freshman to the NBA. Not funny, we know, but there’s something to it. Our first test, Clemson at Cameron, brings a Brad Brownell team that is surely eager for the challenge. Clemson came into the season with high hopes and the Tigers have been somewhat disappointing thus far. Obviously, a game with Duke presents a major chance for teams to make a name for themselves.
Can this Duke team play well on the road? Our Phase III road tests are at Wake Forest, Florida State and Pitt. Again, we return to the freshman theme as we look at road games. Despite much experience playing in high school all-star games and for national teams, despite playing on national TV and in high-pressure games already this season, Duke’s freshmen have never seen anything like an ACC road game. Getting Wake and Pitt, who appear to be among the worst teams in the conference, as early road tests is a nice way to dip your toe into the ocean, but the game at FSU will be a different test. Ninth-ranked Florida State is always a tough test (we lost there in 2017). Playing one of the top teams in the country on the road in just our third ACC contest, we would not be at all surprised to see this Duke team suffer its second defeat of the season. And, it is worth noting that road games have been a problem for recent Duke teams who only have a 17-14 road record in the past three seasons. Ah, yes – the controversial AP voter Graham Couch! We’ll see if he has a point in penalizing teams who haven’t played true road games. If nothing else, Duke can look forward to finally appearing on Couch’s AP ballot after the game with Wake.
The Lineup. Duke’s lineup appears set – R.J., Zion, Cam, and Tre – and now Javin DeLaurier with the starting position over Marques Bolden, who will still see substantial minutes. Super-sub Jack White has earned starter minutes with his strong play, and Alex O’Connell has played effectively in his regular appearances on the court. Jordan Goldwire has been a capable sub for Tre Jones and earned playing time that will help in the future. But, we all know that coach K loves to tighten his rotation as the season moves along. White will continue to get significant minutes. It seems highly likely that Bolden will play a rim-protecting role against opponents who are not going small, but one thing to watch during this phase of the season is how much O’Connell and Goldwire play. While we do not expect them to disappear from boxscores, O’Connell could post fewer than double-digit minutes in ACC games and for Goldwire may ride the bench in really competitive games.
Duke Shooting. While our overall shooting percentage of 49 percent is in line with the past four years, three-point shooting (32 percent) is lagging and free-throw shooting (68 percent), while outstanding in the two most recent games, is below the marks of the last four years. Will Duke shooting improve? Much of the answer likely depends upon Cameron Reddish, who is the team’s volume three-point shooter. Sixty-three percent of his shots are from three-point range. He comes into this phase in a fairly significant slump, having hit just five of his past 27 threes. He came into Duke as a dynamic threat from long range, and the fact that he keeps on shooting (he has at least four 3FGA in every game) tells us that he knows he can hit that shot. He is currently shooting 35 percent from three, but he sure looks like someone who is a 40+ percent shooter from long range. Perhaps his tough stretch will precede a stretch of games where he is hitting everything. Then there’s the lesson of Luke Kennard’s freshman year, when he inexplicably hit just 32 percent of his threes and then shot a scorching 44 percent from three as a sophomore. While the next phase of the season does not appear to be super difficult, we will be keeping a close eye on Cam to see if his recent shooting woes disappear. Shooting issues, as the season progresses, will be tested by what will be changes to…
Opponents’ Defenses. With limited outside shooting and very aggressive drives to the basket by R.J. and Zion (and Cam and others), we expect every ACC opponent to pack their defense inside – giving Duke the outside shots and looking to draw charging fouls on drives. Can Duke provide the effective outside shooting needed to punish the other teams for the zones and pack-line defense we will surely see? It will also be interesting to see how effective those zones and sagging man defenses can be against the Duke drivers. It is not like packing it in against this Duke team is some new defensive theory. Teams have been trying to stop us from getting to the rim since the trip to Canada. Thus far, no one has really been able to do it all that effectively except for maybe Texas Tech, a team widely considered to be among the top few defensive teams in the land. It is one thing to say “pack it in and we can stop RJ and Zion,” but it is a whole different thing to actually succeed at doing that. Oh, and part and parcel with the defensive strategy is the question of whether it leads to foul trouble for Duke. The Texas Tech game showed what can happen when you pick up too many offensive fouls. We would be perfectly happy if we never again have to test whether Duke can come from behind and win with Zion DQ’d by offensive fouls.
Before turning to questions about each of our players, we offer the opinion that this Duke team may be as close to a “position-less team” as one is likely to see in college. All of our starters run the court really well, and all are quick defenders who seem to grasp the concept of team defense.
R.J. Barrett is the number one high school player from 2018 and the MVP of the FIBA under-19 championships at the age of 17 years, one month. R.J. is clearly the leader of the team on the floor, but can he up his game to match the (unreasonable) expectations of many Duke fans? R.J. is averaging 23.8 PPG on shooting of 46 percent overall, with 32 percent from three and 65 percent on FT’s. We don’t know if R.J. is taking too many shots, but we will be happy if he makes a higher percentage. Of course, we recognize that one reason his percentage is low is because the team asks him to take the difficult shots. Duke’s strategy is often to put the ball in RJ’s hands and get out of the way.
Zion Williamson? What can we say? Except to ask if he will continue as a one-of-a-kind player? In our humble (yeah, right!) opinion, no one like him has ever played the game. Will ACC opponents find some answers in controlling Zion?
Cam Reddish. We have talked about his shooting, but he is an all-around player: long, quick and capable in defense. He also has the most potential for improved play among our “big four.” Will Cam show his true capabilities as the season progresses?
Tre Jones is a revelation. We had high expectations, but he has generally exceeded them with his passing, driving ability and defense. Can his high level of play continue? And, then again, it’s a long season and he is playing a ton of minutes. It would be great to have other players, not just Jordan, share the burden of running the point, especially on a team that seems so versatile.
Javin DeLaurier. Javin has been an effective defender and has scored well from close range. His fouling is a problem – one foul per six minutes of playing time – which is his main handicap. One certainly can’t argue with his shot selection, given that he is making 86 percent of his shots – except maybe that he needs to take more shots.
Marques Bolden. Marques, while speedy for his size, is less well-suited to a switching defense, not having the mobility of the other key players. Moreover, his strength in blocking shots seem to affect his rebounding, which is very low for a player of his size and mobility. Marques is a mystery – will he show that he can play a key role on this exceptional Duke team?
Jack White has been an outstanding player off the bench, earning starter’s minutes (25 MPG) and being effective in many phases of the game. To our mind, his nose for the ball is his most valuable contribution, with 6.8 rebounds per game, although we are also pleased with his shooting and defense. As with Zion and Tre, our question is – can he keep playing at such a high level?
We can go on (and on and on), but we would like to hear from you.
Sage Grouse
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'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013