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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Phase III - the First Part of the ACC Season

    Phase III, after two weeks without hoops, takes on the first six games of the ACC season, beginning with Clemson at home on Saturday, January 5. We, Jason Evans and Sage, have about a dozen topics and questions on each topic. And we look forward to your views.

    Health. Duke runs an up-tempo offense, triggered by steals, blocks and rebounds from a very aggressive defense. Can we continue at such a pace and effort without injuries? Assemble your good luck charms – we are hoping to stay healthy. It is worth noting that Duke’s reliance on freshmen makes the health question particularly relevant. The volume of games and practices in college versus the high school level is a significant change for freshmen. In past seasons we have generally seen the “freshman fatigue” bug bite players as we enter the middle of the ACC season. We don’t expect this to be a major concern during this phase of the year, but it is something to keep an eye upon.

    The ACC Season Arrives. The schedule will send Duke to hostile arenas and welcome teams to Cameron that have played here before. In conference play it is said there is higher intensity and that teams are far more familiar with each other. Only partially true with Duke, as we turn our lineup over every year, by sending our best freshman to the NBA. Not funny, we know, but there’s something to it. Our first test, Clemson at Cameron, brings a Brad Brownell team that is surely eager for the challenge. Clemson came into the season with high hopes and the Tigers have been somewhat disappointing thus far. Obviously, a game with Duke presents a major chance for teams to make a name for themselves.

    Can this Duke team play well on the road? Our Phase III road tests are at Wake Forest, Florida State and Pitt. Again, we return to the freshman theme as we look at road games. Despite much experience playing in high school all-star games and for national teams, despite playing on national TV and in high-pressure games already this season, Duke’s freshmen have never seen anything like an ACC road game. Getting Wake and Pitt, who appear to be among the worst teams in the conference, as early road tests is a nice way to dip your toe into the ocean, but the game at FSU will be a different test. Ninth-ranked Florida State is always a tough test (we lost there in 2017). Playing one of the top teams in the country on the road in just our third ACC contest, we would not be at all surprised to see this Duke team suffer its second defeat of the season. And, it is worth noting that road games have been a problem for recent Duke teams who only have a 17-14 road record in the past three seasons. Ah, yes – the controversial AP voter Graham Couch! We’ll see if he has a point in penalizing teams who haven’t played true road games. If nothing else, Duke can look forward to finally appearing on Couch’s AP ballot after the game with Wake.

    The Lineup. Duke’s lineup appears set – R.J., Zion, Cam, and Tre – and now Javin DeLaurier with the starting position over Marques Bolden, who will still see substantial minutes. Super-sub Jack White has earned starter minutes with his strong play, and Alex O’Connell has played effectively in his regular appearances on the court. Jordan Goldwire has been a capable sub for Tre Jones and earned playing time that will help in the future. But, we all know that coach K loves to tighten his rotation as the season moves along. White will continue to get significant minutes. It seems highly likely that Bolden will play a rim-protecting role against opponents who are not going small, but one thing to watch during this phase of the season is how much O’Connell and Goldwire play. While we do not expect them to disappear from boxscores, O’Connell could post fewer than double-digit minutes in ACC games and for Goldwire may ride the bench in really competitive games.

    Duke Shooting. While our overall shooting percentage of 49 percent is in line with the past four years, three-point shooting (32 percent) is lagging and free-throw shooting (68 percent), while outstanding in the two most recent games, is below the marks of the last four years. Will Duke shooting improve? Much of the answer likely depends upon Cameron Reddish, who is the team’s volume three-point shooter. Sixty-three percent of his shots are from three-point range. He comes into this phase in a fairly significant slump, having hit just five of his past 27 threes. He came into Duke as a dynamic threat from long range, and the fact that he keeps on shooting (he has at least four 3FGA in every game) tells us that he knows he can hit that shot. He is currently shooting 35 percent from three, but he sure looks like someone who is a 40+ percent shooter from long range. Perhaps his tough stretch will precede a stretch of games where he is hitting everything. Then there’s the lesson of Luke Kennard’s freshman year, when he inexplicably hit just 32 percent of his threes and then shot a scorching 44 percent from three as a sophomore. While the next phase of the season does not appear to be super difficult, we will be keeping a close eye on Cam to see if his recent shooting woes disappear. Shooting issues, as the season progresses, will be tested by what will be changes to…

    Opponents’ Defenses. With limited outside shooting and very aggressive drives to the basket by R.J. and Zion (and Cam and others), we expect every ACC opponent to pack their defense inside – giving Duke the outside shots and looking to draw charging fouls on drives. Can Duke provide the effective outside shooting needed to punish the other teams for the zones and pack-line defense we will surely see? It will also be interesting to see how effective those zones and sagging man defenses can be against the Duke drivers. It is not like packing it in against this Duke team is some new defensive theory. Teams have been trying to stop us from getting to the rim since the trip to Canada. Thus far, no one has really been able to do it all that effectively except for maybe Texas Tech, a team widely considered to be among the top few defensive teams in the land. It is one thing to say “pack it in and we can stop RJ and Zion,” but it is a whole different thing to actually succeed at doing that. Oh, and part and parcel with the defensive strategy is the question of whether it leads to foul trouble for Duke. The Texas Tech game showed what can happen when you pick up too many offensive fouls. We would be perfectly happy if we never again have to test whether Duke can come from behind and win with Zion DQ’d by offensive fouls.

    Before turning to questions about each of our players, we offer the opinion that this Duke team may be as close to a “position-less team” as one is likely to see in college. All of our starters run the court really well, and all are quick defenders who seem to grasp the concept of team defense.

    R.J. Barrett is the number one high school player from 2018 and the MVP of the FIBA under-19 championships at the age of 17 years, one month. R.J. is clearly the leader of the team on the floor, but can he up his game to match the (unreasonable) expectations of many Duke fans? R.J. is averaging 23.8 PPG on shooting of 46 percent overall, with 32 percent from three and 65 percent on FT’s. We don’t know if R.J. is taking too many shots, but we will be happy if he makes a higher percentage. Of course, we recognize that one reason his percentage is low is because the team asks him to take the difficult shots. Duke’s strategy is often to put the ball in RJ’s hands and get out of the way.

    Zion Williamson? What can we say? Except to ask if he will continue as a one-of-a-kind player? In our humble (yeah, right!) opinion, no one like him has ever played the game. Will ACC opponents find some answers in controlling Zion?

    Cam Reddish. We have talked about his shooting, but he is an all-around player: long, quick and capable in defense. He also has the most potential for improved play among our “big four.” Will Cam show his true capabilities as the season progresses?

    Tre Jones is a revelation. We had high expectations, but he has generally exceeded them with his passing, driving ability and defense. Can his high level of play continue? And, then again, it’s a long season and he is playing a ton of minutes. It would be great to have other players, not just Jordan, share the burden of running the point, especially on a team that seems so versatile.

    Javin DeLaurier. Javin has been an effective defender and has scored well from close range. His fouling is a problem – one foul per six minutes of playing time – which is his main handicap. One certainly can’t argue with his shot selection, given that he is making 86 percent of his shots – except maybe that he needs to take more shots.

    Marques Bolden. Marques, while speedy for his size, is less well-suited to a switching defense, not having the mobility of the other key players. Moreover, his strength in blocking shots seem to affect his rebounding, which is very low for a player of his size and mobility. Marques is a mystery – will he show that he can play a key role on this exceptional Duke team?

    Jack White has been an outstanding player off the bench, earning starter’s minutes (25 MPG) and being effective in many phases of the game. To our mind, his nose for the ball is his most valuable contribution, with 6.8 rebounds per game, although we are also pleased with his shooting and defense. As with Zion and Tre, our question is – can he keep playing at such a high level?

    We can go on (and on and on), but we would like to hear from you.
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  2. #2
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    Will Duke shooting improve? Much of the answer likely depends upon Cameron Reddish, who is the team’s volume three-point shooter. Sixty-three percent of his shots are from three-point range. He comes into this phase in a fairly significant slump, having hit just five of his past 27 threes. He came into Duke as a dynamic threat from long range, and the fact that he keeps on shooting (he has at least four 3FGA in every game) tells us that he knows he can hit that shot. He is currently shooting 35 percent from three, but he sure looks like someone who is a 40+ percent shooter from long range. Perhaps his tough stretch will precede a stretch of games where he is hitting everything. Then there’s the lesson of Luke Kennard’s freshman year, when he inexplicably hit just 32 percent of his threes and then shot a scorching 44 percent from three as a sophomore.
    Nice job, guys. I just wanted to mention that before Cam's recent 5 for 27 slump from three, he hit 26 for his first 60 college three-pointers (43.3%). This sort of distinguishes him from Kennard, who went 11 for his first 44 college threes (25%) before bringing it up a little to finish with a still-dismal 32% three pct. I know some people out there don't believe in "streaky" shooters, but I do and it may be that Cam is one. Of course the danger of having your main shooter be streaky is that sometimes they go on, e.g., 5 for 27 cold streaks and you just have to hope it's not during the ACC and/or NCAA tournaments. For now, let's just hope he starts heating up again.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Richmond, VA

    Duke's Team defense

    I am less concerned about Duke's shooting and the opponent's defense since this Duke team's DNA appears to be good / great mtm defense and transition baskets.

    This is a welcome change at this point compared to the previous 4-5 teams. There have been times where Duke's defense has been suffocating and I would like that to continue. The best illustration of that commitment to defense is actually several plays that stick out from Cam. Despite not shooting well he has had several back court steals after Duke's offensive possessions that have lead to lay-ups. So despite not shooting well he (and the rest of the team) know that they can always play great D.

  4. #4
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    Feb 2007
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    Norfolk, VA
    Good job with the Phase post Sage/Jason!

    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post

    Tre Jones is a revelation. We had high expectations, but he has generally exceeded them with his passing, driving ability and defense. Can his high level of play continue? And, then again, it’s a long season and he is playing a ton of minutes. It would be great to have other players, not just Jordan, share the burden of running the point, especially on a team that seems so versatile.
    Tre Jones has been our Most Outstanding Player so far this season. Can he keep up his high performance level against ACC point guards? The question will be answered starting tonight against Clemson and their dynamic backcourt duo of Marcquise Reed and Shelton Mitchell.

    Jones key stats:

    Assists per Game: 5.6
    Steals per Game: 2.2
    Turnovers per Game: 1.1

    If Jones continues his high performance level as a lock down defender and ball distributor, Duke will win a lot of ACC games.
    Bob Green

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Great Phase Post, sage and Jason!

    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    Opponents’ Defenses. With limited outside shooting and very aggressive drives to the basket by R.J. and Zion (and Cam and others), we expect every ACC opponent to pack their defense inside – giving Duke the outside shots and looking to draw charging fouls on drives. Can Duke provide the effective outside shooting needed to punish the other teams for the zones and pack-line defense we will surely see? It will also be interesting to see how effective those zones and sagging man defenses can be against the Duke drivers. It is not like packing it in against this Duke team is some new defensive theory. Teams have been trying to stop us from getting to the rim since the trip to Canada. Thus far, no one has really been able to do it all that effectively except for maybe Texas Tech, a team widely considered to be among the top few defensive teams in the land. It is one thing to say “pack it in and we can stop RJ and Zion,” but it is a whole different thing to actually succeed at doing that. Oh, and part and parcel with the defensive strategy is the question of whether it leads to foul trouble for Duke. The Texas Tech game showed what can happen when you pick up too many offensive fouls. We would be perfectly happy if we never again have to test whether Duke can come from behind and win with Zion DQ’d by offensive fouls.
    Duke is largely to blame for allowing the packed-in or "gapping" defenses to succeed, and I'm not talking about poor shooting (although that of course contributes). We need to find a multiple-drive-and-kick rhythm where, instead of relying on our first penetration to score, we kick out, reverse the ball, what have-you, and rely on third and fourth penetrations to score. If this Duke team moves the ball side to side (thus moving the defense, leading to positional mistakes) and waits for a fourth penetration to attack, we will score or get fouled every time.

    To be fair, I think we've been mostly focusing on getting the defense to be top-notch, but I suspect the coaches have turned to fixing the offense over winter break.

    Finally, playing Jack at the 4 and Zion at the 5 will unzip any defense. We need to play the death lineup more often.

    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    We don’t know if R.J. is taking too many shots, but we will be happy if he makes a higher percentage.
    RJ definitely has been taking too many shots but it's in service of getting him reps to learn to become more efficient.

    There WILL be a moment in time this season (and maybe it comes as early as today) when Duke fans exclaim, "Ah ha! RJ gets it now and knows how to play at this level," and when he reaches this light-bulb moment, he'll play at an All-American level the rest of the season.

    The Duke coaches know what they're doing with RJ here.

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    Great Phase Post, sage and Jason!

    Finally, playing Jack at the 4 and Zion at the 5 will unzip any defense. We need to play the death lineup more often.

    RJ definitely has been taking too many shots but it's in service of getting him reps to learn to become more efficient.

    There WILL be a moment in time this season (and maybe it comes as early as today) when Duke fans exclaim, "Ah ha! RJ gets it now and knows how to play at this level," and when he reaches this light-bulb moment, he'll play at an All-American level the rest of the season.

    The Duke coaches know what they're doing with RJ here.
    Agree with the "death lineup" analysis...has several benefits, including maxing out the shot blocking of Zion while giving Jack more catch and shoot 3 looks. Jack can flat out shoot - just needs more game reps. Hit three big time 3's against TT (yes, one was called off due to foul on RJ, but when Jack shot it, he didn't know that so it was under game pressure, and it went in).

    As for your RJ comments: I agree, and I think this ties into running the offense thru Zion - because he so naturally attracts all the eyeballs. This will give RJ fewer shots but more great looks IMO...I think if Zion gets about 3-4-5more shots per game and RJ maybe 3-4-5 less, both will score more. I think it will open up opportunities for everybody.

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    Great Phase Post, sage and Jason!



    Duke is largely to blame for allowing the packed-in or "gapping" defenses to succeed, and I'm not talking about poor shooting (although that of course contributes). We need to find a multiple-drive-and-kick rhythm where, instead of relying on our first penetration to score, we kick out, reverse the ball, what have-you, and rely on third and fourth penetrations to score. If this Duke team moves the ball side to side (thus moving the defense, leading to positional mistakes) and waits for a fourth penetration to attack, we will score or get fouled every time.

    To be fair, I think we've been mostly focusing on getting the defense to be top-notch, but I suspect the coaches have turned to fixing the offense over winter break.

    Finally, playing Jack at the 4 and Zion at the 5 will unzip any defense. We need to play the death lineup more often.



    RJ definitely has been taking too many shots but it's in service of getting him reps to learn to become more efficient.

    There WILL be a moment in time this season (and maybe it comes as early as today) when Duke fans exclaim, "Ah ha! RJ gets it now and knows how to play at this level," and when he reaches this light-bulb moment, he'll play at an All-American level the rest of the season.

    The Duke coaches know what they're doing with RJ here.
    Drive and kick is key and a lot of this will be easier if Cam shoots more reliably. If Cam continues to struggle- Jack is next man up. RJ is a much better shooter when his feet are set so he is an option as well. I agree that this will be a process throughout the season and eventually it will click.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by HereBeforeCoachK View Post
    Agree with the "death lineup" analysis...has several benefits, including maxing out the shot blocking of Zion while giving Jack more catch and shoot 3 looks. Jack can flat out shoot - just needs more game reps. Hit three big time 3's against TT (yes, one was called off due to foul on RJ, but when Jack shot it, he didn't know that so it was under game pressure, and it went in).

    As for your RJ comments: I agree, and I think this ties into running the offense thru Zion - because he so naturally attracts all the eyeballs. This will give RJ fewer shots but more great looks IMO...I think if Zion gets about 3-4-5more shots per game and RJ maybe 3-4-5 less, both will score more. I think it will open up opportunities for everybody.
    i agree, if RJ shoots fewer overall shots, but more of those are better quality looks, he could very well score more. If he replaces the forced shots against multiple defenders with passes to open players for scores it may also get teams to give him more space to get better shots. I'm sure some of those passes would end up in Zion's hands too. Also, if he replaces some of those out of rhythm 3s/long jumpers with drives to kick out to shooters, he may end up getting better shots too, via Oboards or give-n-go type passes.
    Anyway, better ball movement and better shot selection could lead to more scoring, who knew?

  9. #9
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    Offense

    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    To be fair, I think we've been mostly focusing on getting the defense to be top-notch, but I suspect the coaches have turned to fixing the offense over winter break.

    Finally, playing Jack at the 4 and Zion at the 5 will unzip any defense. We need to play the death lineup more often.
    Tre said they had focused on half court offense over the break, as you suspected (and I think predicted in another thread).

  10. #10
    I believe three point shooters are born more than made. Certainly practice helps with results but bad form catches up with those who don't adjust or learn. As others have said, Jack has nice form when catching and shooting from the corner and we need to drive and dish to him more often. In my opinion, AOC also has good form but as yet in his career, he has often deferred to others and not taken the shot. Will that change? I doubt it, but maybe next year his confidence level will improve. In my opinion, Cam doesn't have the best form as he shoots from out front. His height still allows him to get the ball off, but we really haven't seen the kind of results a top three point shooter can deliver. As said in the entry, he has the most room for improvement of the big four freshmen.

    We get a lot of points off turnovers and the break. ACC guards may be more difficult to turnover and in the halfcourt, teams will pack it inside on defense as our outside shooting has been very marginal and we have tended to pick up charging fouls. I am not to concerned about Clemson at home and think our first big test with be Fla State on the road. Looking forward to this phase and will not be disappointed if we lose a couple along the way.

  11. #11
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    Excellent phase post

    Great job, Sage and Jason ("we").

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by HereBeforeCoachK View Post
    Agree with the "death lineup" analysis...has several benefits, including maxing out the shot blocking of Zion while giving Jack more catch and shoot 3 looks. Jack can flat out shoot - just needs more game reps. Hit three big time 3's against TT (yes, one was called off due to foul on RJ, but when Jack shot it, he didn't know that so it was under game pressure, and it went in).

    As for your RJ comments: I agree, and I think this ties into running the offense thru Zion - because he so naturally attracts all the eyeballs. This will give RJ fewer shots but more great looks IMO...I think if Zion gets about 3-4-5more shots per game and RJ maybe 3-4-5 less, both will score more. I think it will open up opportunities for everybody.
    I agree that Duke should find Jack for more catch and shoot threes and that Jack can hit those open shots but Jack does not shoot at all unless he’s left completely unguarded. He doesn’t shoot step back 3s, he doesn’t come off screens and he does shot fake, slide over then shoot. He’s even passed up open 3s on more than one occasion. So he’s a good option when he’s standing alone at the three point line and Duke can probably probably generate a couple more good looks per game for Jack but probably the best outcome is that the opponent will stop leaving him unguarded and open up the lane a little more for penetration. AOC is a more willing shooter and has a much quicker release but he doesn’t add the rebounding and defense that Jack brings.

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by lotusland View Post
    I agree that Duke should find Jack for more catch and shoot threes and that Jack can hit those open shots but Jack does not shoot at all unless he’s left completely unguarded. He doesn’t shoot step back 3s, he doesn’t come off screens and he does shot fake, slide over then shoot. He’s even passed up open 3s on more than one occasion. So he’s a good option when he’s standing alone at the three point line and Duke can probably probably generate a couple more good looks per game for Jack but probably the best outcome is that the opponent will stop leaving him unguarded and open up the lane a little more for penetration. AOC is a more willing shooter and has a much quicker release but he doesn’t add the rebounding and defense that Jack brings.
    I'm not convinced Duke has any players who can shoot the step back three reliably.With the other talents on this team, I don't think they need it...as long as they keep up the D, the slashing, and making a few extra passes so that most of their 3s can be the stand still variety. As for Jack's shot selection, he has passed up a few open looks...and then he's taken a few when there was a strong close out...almost as if the bench got on him for passing up the open looks...so I think his selection will continue to improve, and the percentage with it.

  14. #14
    I just want to point out that our "broken" offense thus far this season is ranked by Pomeroy as the #2 offense in the country.

  15. #15
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    Offense

    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    I just want to point out that our "broken" offense thus far this season is ranked by Pomeroy as the #2 offense in the country.
    To be fair, I think folks are questioning the half court offense, not the fast break offense.

  16. #16
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    There's an ESPN+ article up on how to stop Duke. A couple of the quotes at the end sum it up. Here's one: 'As one coach said: "They basically line up against you and say, 'We're better. We've got three of the top five picks and you don't.'"'
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    There's an ESPN+ article up on how to stop Duke. A couple of the quotes at the end sum it up. Here's one: 'As one coach said: "They basically line up against you and say, 'We're better. We've got three of the top five picks and you don't.'"'
    I don't have ESPN+ and have little motivation to get it...so if you wanted to cut and paste some of the good parts - I'd be in your debt....

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by HereBeforeCoachK View Post
    I don't have ESPN+ and have little motivation to get it...so if you wanted to cut and paste some of the good parts - I'd be in your debt...
    I draw your attention to the Decorum & Posting Guidelines:

    https://forums.dukebasketballreport...before-posting!)

    Copyright Infringement. It's illegal. In addition to the poster who posted the information, DBR might be held accountable for posts that violate copyrights. To avoid copyright infringement, summarize the main point of the article in a few sentences, perhaps add a short quote, and post a link to it. Note that “article” refers to any text, including (but not limited to) articles, books, blogs, and posts on other message boards.
    Bob Green

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    I draw your attention to the Decorum & Posting Guidelines:

    https://forums.dukebasketballreport...before-posting!)
    (in other words, helpful advice: ask via PM rather than in the thread)

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    RJ definitely has been taking too many shots but it's in service of getting him reps to learn to become more efficient.

    There WILL be a moment in time this season (and maybe it comes as early as today) when Duke fans exclaim, "Ah ha! RJ gets it now and knows how to play at this level," and when he reaches this light-bulb moment, he'll play at an All-American level the rest of the season.

    The Duke coaches know what they're doing with RJ here.
    See also: Tatum, Jayson.

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