This Week in the ACC - 1/10-1/16

[pfrduke]

We’re at the quarter pole (roughly speaking) and the Miami Hurricanes are in sole possession of first place as the only remaining undefeated team in conference play. A number of 1-loss teams are nipping at their heels, while the winless Techs are bringing up the rear.

Monday is dark

Tuesday
[71]Syracuse (1-3) (-11) hosts [171]Pittsburgh (1-3) (7:00, ESPNU)
[46]Florida State (2-2) (-6) hosts [82]Miami (5-0) (8:00, ACCN)

Wednesday
[53]Wake Forest (3-2) (+5) hosts [13]Duke (2-1) (7:00, ACCN)
[57]Notre Dame (3-1) (-1) hosts [39]Clemson (2-2) (7:00, ACCNX)
[61]Louisville (4-1) (-7) hosts [117]NC State (1-4) (9:00, ACCN)
[63]Virginia (3-2) (+1) hosts [31]Virginia Tech (0-3) (9:00, ESPN2)
[144]Boston College (1-2) (-1) hosts [118]Georgia Tech (0-4) (9:00, ACCNX)

Thursday and Friday are dark

Saturday
[13]Duke (2-1) (-16) hosts [117]NC State (1-4) (2:00, ESPN3)
[71]Syracuse (1-3) (-1) hosts [46]Florida State (2-2) (3:00, ESPN)
[171]Pittsburgh (1-3) (+5) hosts [61]Louisville (4-1) (4:00, ACCN)
[63]Virginia (3-2) (-3) hosts [53]Wake Forest (3-2) (4:30, ACCNX)
[31]Virginia Tech (0-3) (-7) hosts [57]Notre Dame (3-1) (6:00, ACCN)
[39]Clemson (2-2) (-11) hosts [144]Boston College (1-2) (6:30, ACCNX)
[29]North Carolina (3-1) (-12) hosts [118]Georgia Tech (0-4) (8:00, ACCN)

Sunday is dark

ACC Conference-Only Efficiency Margin
North Carolina - +19.9
Duke - +10.3
Wake Forest - +9.1
Miami - +6.8
Clemson - +2.7
Louisville - +1.8
Pittsburgh - -1.2
Syracuse - -2.1
Notre Dame - -2.2
NC State - -4.4
Florida State - -4.9
Virginia - -5.7
Boston College - -6.0
Georgia Tech - -13.1
Virginia Tech - -19.0

ACC Non-Conference: 105-53
ACC v. Power 6: 18-30

[CDu]

Very minor quibble, but we are only 2-1 in ACC play right now.

[CameronDuke]

Duke -5 at Wake Forest Wednesday. Should be another close one for Duke like the GT and Miami, FL games.

UVa +1 and home dogs vs. winless ACC rival (0-3) Virginia Tech? I don’t see it that way …

[CDu]

Duke -5 at Wake Forest Wednesday. Should be another close one for Duke like the GT and Miami, FL games.

UVa +1 and home dogs vs. winless ACC rival (0-3) Virginia Tech? I don’t see it that way …

Of course you don't .

KenPom probably sees it as a tossup, as they have Va Tech (#31) rated notably above UVa (#63). Torvik thinks the line is spot-on, as they have VT at #31 and UVa at #91.

Tech has been an interesting story. They were a preseason darling for some, and started the season off by destroying mediocre-to-bad teams. The metrics say they are better than their record, but that hasn't materialized in wins yet. Their best wins are a road win over Maryland and two blowout wins over Navy (#109) and St Bonaventure (#113). They also have a neutral-site loss to Xavier by just 1. But other than that, it's just blowouts of awful teams and losses. I don't think they are as bad as their 0-3 ACC record suggests. But they probably aren't as good as their #31 rating suggests, either.

UVa has been a bit more all-or-nothing. They played well against Clemson, Syracuse, and Providence (all game scores above 90 out of 100). But they were horrifically bad in losses to Navy, Houston, James Madison, Clemson, and UNC (all game scores below 40 out of 100), and fairly bad in splitting homes games vs Iowa and Pitt (game scores in the 50s). The defense has been mediocre (outside the top 50 in both KenPom and Torvik), and the offense has been very bad (outside the top 80). Their big wins came when the opponent shot otherworldly poorly (Providence) or when they shot extremely well (Clemson and Syracuse).

The line seems reasonable, but there is a HUGE margin for error. Each team is capable of throwing up some absolute stinkers. UVa has done so 5 times, VT has done so 3 times. I can't begin to guess which version of each team will show up, but it has the potential to be a relative blowout in either direction. UVa does struggle against the 3, which is a potential problem vs VT (who shoots the 3 extremely well). But if Tech is missing their 3s, they look quite bad. The barometer is likely to be Tech's 3pt %: if they shoot over 40%, they win; if they shoot under 35%, they probably lose. Tech is 7-0 when they've shot 40+% from 3, and they are 1-6 when they've shot below 35% (with the one win over St Francis (PA).

[CameronDuke]

Of course you don't .

KenPom probably sees it as a tossup, as they have Va Tech (#31) rated notably above UVa (#63). Torvik thinks the line is spot-on, as they have VT at #31 and UVa at #91.

Tech has been an interesting story. They were a preseason darling for some, and started the season off by destroying mediocre-to-bad teams. The metrics say they are better than their record, but that hasn't materialized in wins yet. Their best wins are a road win over Maryland and two blowout wins over Navy (#109) and St Bonaventure (#113). They also have a neutral-site loss to Xavier by just 1. But other than that, it's just blowouts of awful teams and losses. I don't think they are as bad as their 0-3 ACC record suggests. But they probably aren't as good as their #31 rating suggests, either.

UVa has been a bit more all-or-nothing. They played well against Clemson, Syracuse, and Providence (all game scores above 90 out of 100). But they were horrifically bad in losses to Navy, Houston, James Madison, Clemson, and UNC (all game scores below 40 out of 100), and fairly bad in splitting homes games vs Iowa and Pitt (game scores in the 50s). The defense has been mediocre (outside the top 50 in both KenPom and Torvik), and the offense has been very bad (outside the top 80). Their big wins came when the opponent shot otherworldly poorly (Providence) or when they shot extremely well (Clemson and Syracuse).

The line seems reasonable, but there is a HUGE margin for error. Each team is capable of throwing up some absolute stinkers. UVa has done so 5 times, VT has done so 3 times. I can't begin to guess which version of each team will show up, but it has the potential to be a relative blowout in either direction. UVa does struggle against the 3, which is a potential problem vs VT (who shoots the 3 extremely well). But if Tech is missing their 3s, they look quite bad. The barometer is likely to be Tech's 3pt %: if they shoot over 40%, they win; if they shoot under 35%, they probably lose. Tech is 7-0 when they've shot 40+% from 3, and they are 1-6 when they've shot below 35% (with the one win over St Francis (PA).

Yeah, we’ll see how it goes. UVA’s defense to me isn’t up to snuff for their typical standards this season but they’re not terrible either. Like you said, shooting over the pack line and making 3s consistently gives their defense problems. If the Hokies can do that, it will be a tough game for UVa. I still like UVa at home in a rivalry game. It will almost certainly be a close game in my opinion, I like UVa at the end. Gardner is starting to emerge as a decent offensive player for them and Beekman and Stattman actually looked good shooting against UNC-CH Saturday.

As far as Duke, I think it’s going to be a tough game Wednesday. Wake Forest has played Duke tough in several recent meetings in Winston-Salem. It’s a battle down there. They are having a really good season this year and Duke will get their best shot as usual. The line of Duke -5 seems about right, I don’t see Duke blowing them out on Wednesday.

[CDu]

Yeah, we’ll see how it goes. UVA’s defense to me isn’t up to snuff for their typical standards this season but they’re not terrible either. Like you said, shooting over the pack line and making 3s consistently gives their defense problems. If the Hokies can do that, it will be a tough game for UVa. I still like UVa at home in a rivalry game. It will almost certainly be a close game in my opinion, I like UVa at the end. Gardner is starting to emerge as a decent offensive player for them and Beekman and Stattman actually looked good shooting against UNC-CH Saturday.

Honestly, there is virtually no outcome that would surprise me in this game. Tech could shoot the lights out in a blowout win. Tech could struggle from 3 and UVa have a good shooting game and win big. Anything in between is feasible as well. It's just a pair of mediocre and inconsistent teams, so when they play each other anything could happen.

The Gardner vs Mutts matchup will be interesting, as will the Aluma vs Shedrick/Caffaro. But likely the game will come down to the 3pt shooting.

As far as Duke, I think it’s going to be a tough game Wednesday. Wake Forest has played Duke tough in several recent meetings in Winston-Salem. It’s a battle down there. They are having a really good season this year and Duke will get their best shot as usual. The line of Duke -5 seems about right, I don’t see Duke blowing them out on Wednesday.

I agree. We have the talent to blow them out, and I like that we'll have had a few days off in prep. Hopefully that means we got a good day's rest yesterday and have two good practices today and tomorrow to prepare for the game. Wake is surprisingly good, and could give a tough test. I agree that the line is reasonable here too.

[UrinalCake]

Feels like a must win game for us. Starting off 2-2 with no true road wins on the season would feel pretty miserable. I know it’s not literally a must win, if we lose then we still still continue playing, but this seemingly innocuous game has all of a sudden gained a lot of importance.

[CameronDuke]

Steve Forbes to me is the front runner for ACC coach of the year. A win over Duke Wednesday night and he separates himself from the pack even more. I think Duke will be ranked in the 7-10 range in the AP Poll. With a loss Wednesday to Duke, I still think Forbes has the best odds to win ACC Coach of the Year, they’ll still be 13-4, 3-3 with a loss Wednesday. Not a bad coaching job by Forbes for that program thus far …

[CDu]

Feels like a must win game for us. Starting off 2-2 with no true road wins on the season would feel pretty miserable. I know it’s not literally a must win, if we lose then we still still continue playing, but this seemingly innocuous game has all of a sudden gained a lot of importance.

Definitely not a must-win game. An important test for sure, but far from must-win. We'll be anywhere from a 1 to a 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament, regardless of outcome in this one.

Wake is a potential tournament team, and playing them on the road is one of our toughest (on paper) games left on the schedule. Only the game at UNC has a closer expected spread of our remaining games.

[pfrduke]

Very minor quibble, but we are only 2-1 in ACC play right now.

Fixed!

[CDu]

A good opportunity for Miami to fall back into a tie in the loss column in the ACC standings. They play at FSU tonight. Torvik has FSU as a 6-point favorite. I don't have access to KenPom's detailed data, but I would imagine they have something similar (if not a slightly larger spread).

Also, while there are probably no true "must" win games, this feels like about as close as you can get to a must win for Syracuse at home against Pitt. Syracuse is 1-3 in conference and 7-8 overall. A loss in this one might effectively bury their at-large chances.

[CameronDuke]

A good opportunity for Miami to fall back into a tie in the loss column in the ACC standings. They play at FSU tonight. Torvik has FSU as a 6-point favorite. I don't have access to KenPom's detailed data, but I would imagine they have something similar (if not a slightly larger spread).

Also, while there are probably no true "must" win games, this feels like about as close as you can get to a must win for Syracuse at home against Pitt. Syracuse is 1-3 in conference and 7-8 overall. A loss in this one might effectively bury their at-large chances.

I expect Miami, FL to lay an egg tonight and their performance to be a real dud. They may still win an ugly one but I could also see them losing coming off an emotional win on the road at #2 Duke. FSU can defend pretty well this year (33rd ranked defense nationally on Kenpom) but their offense is kinda bad (86 overall on Kenpom). Their 8 wins thus far this season by and large stink:

Penn - 221 on Kenpom
Tulane - 136
Loyola Marymount - 114
Missouri - 148
Boston U - 175
Lipscomb - 267
NC State - 115
Louisville - 59

They have 1 win over a Kenpom top 60 team currently. Other than that they haven’t even beaten a Kenpom top 113 team.

[CDu]

They have 1 win over a Kenpom top 60 team currently. Other than that they haven’t even beaten a Kenpom top 113 team.

Fortunately, they aren't playing a top-60 team. Despite the nice win over Duke (in large part due to Duke's unforced miscues), Miami is still rated comfortably behind FSU, and outside the top-80. And that one top-60 win was in their last game.

If this one was in Coral Gables (FSU has been awful outside of Tallahassee), I would expect a Miami win. In Tallahassee, I'd expect an FSU win.

[CameronDuke]

Fortunately, they aren't playing a top-60 team. Despite the nice win over Duke (in large part due to Duke's unforced miscues), Miami is still rated comfortably behind FSU, and outside the top-80. And that one top-60 win was in their last game.

If this one was in Coral Gables (FSU has been awful outside of Tallahassee), I would expect a Miami win. In Tallahassee, I'd expect an FSU win.

True, although they do have some pretty bad losses. They lost to Cuse (70 on Kenpom) and managed just 60 points against their defense which currently ranks 189 nationally on Kenpom. They also lost to South Carolina who is 101st on Kenpom.

[Green Wave Dukie]

I expect Miami, FL to lay an egg tonight and their performance to be a real dud. They may still win an ugly one but I could also see them losing coming off an emotional win on the road at #2 Duke. FSU can defend pretty well this year (33rd ranked defense nationally on Kenpom) but their offense is kinda bad (86 overall on Kenpom). Their 8 wins thus far this season by and large stink:

Penn - 221 on Kenpom
Tulane - 136
Loyola Marymount - 114
Missouri - 148
Boston U - 175
Lipscomb - 267
NC State - 115
Louisville - 59

They have 1 win over a Kenpom top 60 team currently. Other than that they haven’t even beaten a Kenpom top 113 team.

You just had to go there, huh?

[CameronDuke]

You just had to go there, huh?

Lol, no offense. My sister in law actually did her undergrad there before her law schooling at NYU. It’s a great campus and obviously NOLA is NOLA. An amazing (but sometimes indulgent) city. But no offense, their basketball program has fallen on hard times! They haven’t danced in the NCAAT in 27 years (the Clinton administration)!

[CDu]

True, although they do have some pretty bad losses. They lost to Cuse (70 on Kenpom) and managed just 60 points against their defense which currently ranks 189 nationally on Kenpom. They also lost to South Carolina who is 101st on Kenpom.

Of course. And they struggled to beat Boston U at home. That's why they are a ~#50-60 team nationally.

Miami has some warts too. They lost by 16 to Dayton (#87) and by 30+ to Alabama (#20) on neutral courts, and eeked out wins over FAU (#164) and Fordham (#170). That's why they are the ~#80 team in the nation.

[CameronDuke]

Cuse leads Pitt 35-34 at the half.

[burnspbesq]

Getting my weekly Dan Bonner fix watching Pitt and Cuse.

[CameronDuke]

Lot of fans dressed as empty seats in Tallahassee tonight.