Originally Posted by
CDu
FSU has historically been a difficult-ish opponent for us when we go to Tallahassee. Even when they aren't great, they sometimes nip us there. It's not an easy place to play. The lighting is bad, the crowd isn't great, it's just a bad combination. So, yeah, this one should be a step up from Wake.
As for the Noles this year, they are again a solid defensive squad and okay-ish offensive squad. They are, as usual, athletic and physical, with good size on the perimeter. They force a lot of turnovers and block some shots, and generally make like annoying for the opposition's offense. They also foul a lot, which comes with their physical style of play. On offense, they draw fouls pretty well, and make a decent percentage of FTs. They are also an elite offensive rebounding team, and that's what keeps them afloat. They don't really do anything else particularly well offensively, including being a terrible shooting team and a terrible passing team. They are also turnover prone, which plays into our hands a bit (hopefully).
It's likely to be a slugfest, as it usually is with FSU, and especially so in Tallahassee. They'll throw a TON of bodies at us, some skilled, many not. Hope we're ready for it.
Centers: We're finally starting to run out of freakish 7-footers at FSU. However, we aren't quite there yet. Christ Koumadje (7'4", 270lb senior from Chad) is the starting center. Koumadje has always been a spindly player. But over his 4 years at FSU, he's put on 45 lbs such that he's now... less spindly. As you might expect, Koumadje is a great shotblocker. He's also gotten to be a great rebounder, on both ends of the floor. He has, however, ZERO offensive skills other than catching rebounds and dunking. He's not even all that high-percentage a scorer despite basically just attempting shots at the rim. Koumadje doesn't play a ton of minutes, but he does make an impact when he's in there. Behind Koumadje, the Noles bring sort of the opposite end of the spectrum in Raiquan Gray (6'8", 260lb freshman). Gray is a short-ish, stocky, interior player with sort of the opposite skill set to Koumadje. He's a good passer and decent shooter, but not very quick/athletic.
Forwards: Phil Cofer (6'8", 230lb fifth-year senior) is the starting PF. Cofer missed several games early in the season, and is just now rounding into form. He's a prototypical stretch-big: great 3pt shooter at his size. He was an All-ACC caliber player last year, but is still showing some rust as we get into conference play. Still, he's a really dangerous weapon for them. Alongside Cofer in the starting lineup is Terance Mann (6'7", 215lb senior). No, he's not the fictional writer from the Field of Dreams movie. Mann is kind of like Justise Winslow in style. He's a rugged, versatile player, capable of guarding 1-to-4, and not being a liability against many 5s either. He's a terrific rebounder and has improved his shooting over the years as well. He's the leader of this team, and a terrific player. The heart and soul of the Noles. Behind (and often alongside) those two is Mfiondu Kabengele (6'10", 250lb sophomore from Canada). Kabengele's major claim to fame is that he's Dikembe Mutombo's nephew. However, he's very little like his uncle in style of play. He is a strong rebounder and shotblocker somewhat like Dikembe, but Kabengele is also fairly skilled offensively and not afraid to get his shots up. The Cofer/Kabengele frontcourt pairing is a particularly interesting one offensively as it allows FSU to play 5-out at times.
Wings: Technically, you could list Mann here as well. He's the starting SF. But FSU has so many wings that I wanted to balance the list out. Aside from Mann, the other starter is MJ Walker (6'5", 215lb sophomore). Walker is an elite athlete and good 3pt shooter who hasn't quite figured out how to play the rest of the game of basketball. The former McDonald's All-American somehow manages to be an inefficient offensive player despite shooting 38% on a high volume of 3s, mainly because he takes and misses a lot of bad 2pt shots. And despite his size and athleticism, he's an awful rebounder and a poor defender overall. It's a disappointing waste of talent. Still, because he's so athletic and can shoot, he is capable of a monster night at any time because he can get his shot off against anyone. The other primary wing is PJ Savoy (6'4", 210lb senior). Savoy isn't overly athletic, but he's on the court to do one thing: shoot 3s. And he puts them up, for sure. Over 80% of his FGA at FSU have been 3s. He shoots 5 3s per 20 minutes this year, and that's substantially down from his rate in previous years. He's struggling a bit from 3 this year, but he's a 38% career shooter from deep. Leaving him open is a baaaaaaad idea. Anthony Polite (6'6", 215lb redshirt freshman from Switzerland) is next on the long list of wings. Polite missed last season with knee problems. He is a lanky player with good shooting touch, but still is working to catch up to the pace of play offensively. Finally, Devin Vassell (6'5", 170lb freshman) rounds out the wings (sort of). Vassell can shoot and provides yet another pesky defensive presence, leading the team in steal rate.
Guards: Trent Forrest (6'4", 215lb junior) is the PG. He's a steady-Eddie at the position. Nothing flashy, just a tough, physical, pass-first type of guard. Technically a combo guard, he's got a PG mindset and a SG body. He's not the steadiest of ballhandlers though, and has been turnover-prone this year. But in a half-court game, he's a solid contributor. He's also a very strong and willing defender. Behind (and sometimes alongside) Forrest is David Nichols (6'1", 185lb grad transfer from Albany). Nichols is the flashier player of the two combo guards at FSU. He's a terrific 3pt threat and not bashful about shooting. He is, however, fairly sloppy with the ball, with a team-worst turnover rate. Still, he's a nice complement stylistically to the bigger, more physical, less 3pt shooty Forrest.
FSU has a ton of depth and athleticism, and they are committed to making the game a war of attrition. I won't even venture a guess as to the outcome, because we could lose close or blow them out. Neither is really out of the realm of feasibility. TRank has us as an 8-point favorite, and that feels reasonable. As does our ~75% chance of winning. But that ~25% chance of FSU winning seems more glaring than it should be on paper.