At What Point Should Coach K Start Jack Over Cam?

[AZLA]

I agree that if Cam were going to ever come off the bench, the Wake Forest game would have been the time to do it. I think at this point, the games are going to be much closer, so experimenting with a different rotation against a team like FSU in their house would be more likely to disrupt what we've been doing than help.

Cam did look more comfortable to me in the final 2-3 minutes of the Wake game, when he was in the game as the primary ball handler. He didn't do anything crazy, and it was garbage time, but he seemed to be much more relaxed with his dribbling and passing than usual, and didn't try to force things. Maybe that's a reach, but I do think a huge part of the problem is that he has had a rough time adjusting to deferring to multiple other guys. I believe he will get there, but I completely disagree that he should be used as "just" a spot up shooter and team defender. That's a huge waste of his skills. We have the entire rest of the conference schedule to integrate the best version of Cam into this offense.

He's a ridiculously talented player (I think some people here have forgotten that). This is not a Tre Duval situation (as in, a guy who was a bit overrated coming out of HS). Cam is an elite, elite talent, so I'm still confident he will find his way.

Well said. Hey just to bookend this, go listen to the Dan Patrick showcast — Coach K specifically addresses his “starting five”

Here’s cheering on Cam to play well against ‘Noles.

[NYBri]

The claim was that a slow start can't be overcome. We did overcome it and lead for some amount of time in the second half.

The claim was that a slow start against Virginia would be hard to overcome (in order to win was implied). Without the slow start, we would have won. cheers.

[NYBri]

Tyus Jones and Quinn Cook say hello. Down 56-47 with five minutes to play, they win in C'ville 69-63.

And it was a great frickin' game. I remember it well. However, it wasn't easy. I pointed out that overcoming a deficit like that against Virginia is hard, not impossible. And in context of this discussion, I was making the point that who starts (Cam or Jack) normally makes no difference. The only time I would consider starting Jack is against Virginia, where he could help keep us from falling behind considering our slow starts with Cam.

GO Duke!

Cheers.

[Steven43]

Meaning, everyone saw how unstoppable this team was when they rolled Kentucky. Cam was integral and played great in that game.

Yes, Cam played well in the Kentucky game. But even in that dominating blowout he shot beliw 50% from the field and had only two rebounds. Sure, he’s had a couple of good games statistically, but the majority have seemed to be something other than what one would call “good”.

I really hope Cam can find a higher level before it’s too late, as Duke only has him for one year. It would be less than ideal if what he has shown thus far is pretty much how the rest of the season is going to play out for him. I expected Cam to be a roughly equal contributor to Zion, RJ, and Tre. Thus far that hasn’t happened. Perhaps my expectations were unrealistic. That would be on me, not Cam.

[Kedsy]

Yes, Cam played well in the Kentucky game. But even in that dominating blowout he shot beliw 50% from the field and had only two rebounds. Sure, he’s had a couple of good games statistically, but the majority have seemed to be something other than what one would call “good”.

You are understating how well Cam played in the UK game. Most guys who shoot more than half their shots from three shoot less than 50% from the field. His eFG% was 53.6% and his true shooting pct was 64.4%. He had 3 assists against 0 turnovers and got four steals.

I would say that he's had 5 very strong games statistically on offense (which is obviously less than a majority out of 14 games), and 10 or 11 strong games statistically (and otherwise) on defense (which obviously is a majority). So whether or not the majority of his performances were "what one would call 'good'" really depends on whether you include defense in your analysis.

[Stray Gator]

Yes, Cam played well in the Kentucky game. But even in that dominating blowout he shot beliw 50% from the field and had only two rebounds. Sure, he’s had a couple of good games statistically, but the majority have seemed to be something other than what one would call “good”. . . .

In the Kentucky game, you're right that Reddish was *only* 6-14 from the floor; but that breaks down as 3-8 from three-point range (37.5%) and 3-6 from inside the arc (50%). In addition, he was 7-7 on free throws, contributing a total of 22 points. And while you're also right that he had *only* 2 rebounds -- while playing mainly on the perimeter, of course -- he also had 4 steals, 3 assists, and 0 turnovers. You selectively focus on a couple of statistics that may appear to merit no more than a shrug in isolation, but I believe a review of the overall stat line shows that he delivered a very impressive performance, particularly considering the setting and the quality of the opponent. He was also Duke's leading scorer (with Barrett) against Auburn on 40% three-point shooting (with 5 rebounds and 2 steals), hit 50% of his three-pointers in a relatively off-game against Gonzaga, made 3-7 from behind the arc (43%) against Indiana, and was 8-15 from the floor and 4-9 from three-point range while scoring 23 against Stetson.

Granted, in the next five games, he was more down than up. But in my book, the foregoing review of the record shows that he's still had more than "a couple of good games." I also found it encouraging that he bounced back from a rough start to hit two of his last four three-pointers in the most recent outing against Wake, which I think we all hope is a signal that he's breaking out of a slump. In any event, he's not the first Duke starter to go through a shooting slump. In earlier cases, K generally stuck with the player in the starting lineup, and ultimately that decision proved beneficial because it gave the player an opportunity to recover his confidence and resume the role of an important contributor. Again, although I don't always agree with his choices, I'd prefer to rely on K's judgment in this regard.

[CDu]

You are understating how well Cam played in the UK game. Most guys who shoot more than half their shots from three shoot less than 50% from the field. His eFG% was 53.6% and his true shooting pct was 64.4%. He had 3 assists against 0 turnovers and got four steals.

Yeah, we can probably point to that UK game as being close to our ceiling. It's the only game against a P5/Top-25 team that we've seen all 3 stud freshmen playing well offensively. Neither Reddish nor Barrett have fared very well in the other P5+Gonzaga games. But when those 3 are all clicking, man is it good.

I say "close to" largely because the shot distribution was still too little Williamson at that point. But otherwise, that's the type of juggernaut that is feasible if all 3 guys are on. And that is what Coach K is trying to get back to, if not improve upon (it's weird to say that the very first game of the season is close to the ceiling, especially with such a young and inexperienced team).

[Steven43]

So whether or not the majority of his performances were "what one would call 'good'" really depends on whether you include defense in your analysis.

Point taken

[uh_no]

Neither Reddish nor Barrett have fared very well in the other P5+Gonzaga games.

21 pts, 7 assists vs wake forest was a pretty good outing for RJ, as was 22 points and 9 boards against indiana. 18 and 9 vs auburn. Even though RJ is inefficient at times, lumping those in the "not fared very well" bucket with Cam's recent performances is a bit unfair.

Further, Cam had a very good game vs auburn. 4-10 from 3, 6-6 from the line with 5 boards.

So I think your blanket statement is too strong.

[kAzE]

I say "close to" largely because the shot distribution was still too little Williamson at that point.

This may be going a bit off topic, but this is a good observation.

Without looking at usage stats, it seemed like the Wake Forest game was the first time where Zion overtook RJ as the 1A option on offense. Obviously, he's been the most efficient offensive player on the team by quite a bit in the first 14 games, so I hope this is the usage pattern going forward. It's not even that RJ has been inefficient, because he's been fantastic, too. Zion is just on a completely different (and probably unheard of) level of efficiency. Cam and RJ both need their touches, but I hope we see Zion continue to get the most opportunities while he is in the game. The guy is literally unstoppable.

[CDu]

21 pts, 7 assists vs wake forest was a pretty good outing for RJ, as was 22 points and 9 boards against indiana. 18 and 9 vs auburn. Even though RJ is inefficient at times, lumping those in the "not fared very well" bucket with Cam's recent performances is a bit unfair.

Further, Cam had a very good game vs auburn. 4-10 from 3, 6-6 from the line with 5 boards.

So I think your blanket statement is too strong.

I was talking about his efficiency. 18 points on 20 shots with 4 turnovers is pretty poor. 22 points on 18 shots with 5 turnovers is slightly less poor.

Yes, he provided a bunch of rebounds in those two games. But the efficiency and turnovers were pretty awful.

Granted, not on the same level of awful that Reddish's worst games have been.

But you're right: the Reddish game against Auburn was quite good (18 points on 10 FGA and 6 FTA, 5 rebounds, 2 steals to 2 turnovers).

[CDu]

This may be going a bit off topic, but this is a good observation.

Without looking at usage stats, it seemed like the Wake Forest game was the first time where Zion overtook RJ as the 1A option on offense. Obviously, he's been the most efficient offensive player on the team by quite a bit in the first 14 games, so I hope this is the usage pattern going forward. It's not even that RJ has been inefficient, because he's been fantastic, too. Zion is just on a completely different (and probably unheard of) level of efficiency. Cam and RJ both need their touches, but I hope we see Zion continue to get the most opportunities while he is in the game. The guy is literally unstoppable.

Technically, Barrett still had a slightly higher usage (slightly more shots per minute, more TOs, and more FTA). That said, he got a larger proportion of those shots off-ball than he usually does, so the usage% might not really reflect teh "1A vs 1B" of it in this case. I agree that it felt more like a "Williamson is the focal point" game to me too.

And yes and no to the bolded part above. Yes, Barrett has been a fantastic player overall. But against P5 and Gonzaga, he actually HAS been pretty inefficient offensively. He's just absolutely obliterated lesser competition.

He's been less inefficient the last two games (still average to below-average efficiency, but not as inefficient as earlier) and he's taken fewer attempts in those games as well. That's a step in the right direction, especially given how otherworldly efficient Williamson has been.

If Barrett can start being above-average in efficiency, I'll be good with him pushing Williamson for attempts. In part because I think that's part of what makes Barrett work, and in part because I don't want to risk overusing and hurting Williamson. But at the moment, I'd be happier with the distribution shifting even further toward Williamson.

[kAzE]

If Barrett can start being above-average in efficiency, I'll be good with him pushing Williamson for attempts. In part because I think that's part of what makes Barrett work, and in part because I don't want to risk overusing and hurting Williamson. But at the moment, I'd be happier with the distribution shifting even further toward Williamson.

I would like Zion to be the usage leader, because he seems to make the "right play" more often than RJ does. RJ is a scorer, and there's nothing wrong with that. He's the best pure scorer on the team. It was nice to see him get 7 assists in the previous game, but he does tend to force up shots more often than I think we would all prefer. This is nitpicking, because he's incredible at drawing contact and getting to foul line, which is a huge plus for the team, and is a very important part of his game.

Zion doesn't ever seem to force the issue though. It just seems like every time he gets the ball, he either scores easily or makes a great pass to an open teammate, because he draws the entire defense to him when he gets inside. He really is a phenomenal passer with point guard-like vision. So while RJ (and Cam) should still get a good number of opportunities to create with the ball in their hands, I agree the team would become even more efficient offensively with Zion being the focal point, and everyone else playing off of him. I'm with you on RJ pushing him for usage, and making it more like 1A and 1B though, instead of a clear #1/#2.

[Steven43]

I agree the team would become even more efficient offensively with Zion being the #1 option, and everyone else playing off of him.

I doubt there is a basketball-focused person in this country (other than, maybe, RJ’s dad) who would disagree.

[uh_no]

I would like Zion to be the usage leader, because he seems to make the "right play" more often than RJ does. RJ is a scorer, and there's nothing wrong with that. He's the best pure scorer on the team. It was nice to see him get 7 assists in the previous game, but he does tend to force up shots more often than I think we would all prefer. This is nitpicking, because he's incredible at drawing contact and getting to foul line, which is a huge plus for the team, and is a very important part of his game.

Zion doesn't ever seem to force the issue though. It just seems like every time he gets the ball, he either scores easily or makes a great pass to an open teammate, because he draws the entire defense to him when he gets inside. He really is a phenomenal passer with point guard-like vision. So while RJ (and Cam) should still get a good number of opportunities to create with the ball in their hands, I agree the team would become even more efficient offensively with Zion being the focal point, and everyone else playing off of him. I'm with you on RJ pushing him for usage, and making it more like 1A and 1B though, instead of a clear #1/#2.

I'd like to see Cam to position himself to get some of those easy buckets from zion. Javin, Bolden, and to some degree Jack have made a killing mopping up the exact kind of plays your talking about, yet cam seems to never be in the right place to take advantage. The more he is able to take advantage of easy buckets like that, the more confidence he'll have otherwise, I think.

[CDu]

I'd like to see Cam to position himself to get some of those easy buckets from zion. Javin, Bolden, and to some degree Jack have made a killing mopping up the exact kind of plays your talking about, yet cam seems to never be in the right place to take advantage. The more he is able to take advantage of easy buckets like that, the more confidence he'll have otherwise, I think.

Yeah, and this is one area in which Barrett is light-years ahead of Reddish. Reddish hasn't really been a good off-ball player. But Barrett is predatory. He's going to do whatever he can to try to get buckets. And that has helped him (and the team) a lot, because those are the efficient buckets he gets in the half-court right now (to go along with transition buckets/fouls, where he is also really efficient). Reddish, as is not uncommon for high-usage players, is seeming to have trouble making himself available as an off-ball player. If he can get to be able to play off Barrett and Williamson more, it'll help his efficiency and the team a bunch.

[Troublemaker]

I would like Zion to be the usage leader, because he seems to make the "right play" more often than RJ does. RJ is a scorer, and there's nothing wrong with that. He's the best pure scorer on the team. It was nice to see him get 7 assists in the previous game, but he does tend to force up shots more often than I think we would all prefer. This is nitpicking, because he's incredible at drawing contact and getting to foul line, which is a huge plus for the team, and is a very important part of his game.

Zion doesn't ever seem to force the issue though. It just seems like every time he gets the ball, he either scores easily or makes a great pass to an open teammate, because he draws the entire defense to him when he gets inside. He really is a phenomenal passer with point guard-like vision. So while RJ (and Cam) should still get a good number of opportunities to create with the ball in their hands, I agree the team would become even more efficient offensively with Zion being the focal point, and everyone else playing off of him. I'm with you on RJ pushing him for usage, and making it more like 1A and 1B though, instead of a clear #1/#2.

While I agree with making Zion the #1 option, it should be noted that RJ has a lower turnover rate (14.1% to 16.3%) and a higher assist rate (23.2% to 16.9%). I don't think decision-making is the key difference between the two. It's really just that because of Zion's one-of-a-kind body and athleticism (and great touch), when he goes up for a shot in a crowd, he finishes much more often than RJ (or really anyone in that situation). Zion is one of the great finishers the college game has ever seen; he'd be a great finisher even if he never dunked.

I've not seen the following comparison yet because of their difference in body types, but when Zion goes overall #1, the team that drafts him will be hoping that Zion eventually grows into an MVP candidate by producing similarly to how Giannis does things. Giannis is a dominant finisher around the rim, and he uses the threat of his drives and finishing to playmake for his teammates. Giannis has also grown into a great defender but is still working on his outside shooting. That sounds like the formula for how Zion becomes an NBA superstar as well.

[dukelifer]

While I agree with making Zion the #1 option, it should be noted that RJ has a lower turnover rate (14.1% to 16.3%) and a higher assist rate (23.2% to 16.9%). I don't think decision-making is the key difference between the two. It's really just that because of Zion's one-of-a-kind body and athleticism (and great touch), when he goes up for a shot in a crowd, he finishes much more often than RJ (or really anyone in that situation). Zion is one of the great finishers the college game has ever seen; he'd be a great finisher even if he never dunked.

I've not seen the following comparison yet because of their difference in body types, but when Zion goes overall #1, the team that drafts him will be hoping that Zion eventually grows into an MVP candidate by producing similarly to how Giannis does things. Giannis is a dominant finisher around the rim, and he uses the threat of his drives and finishing to playmake for his teammates. Giannis has also grown into a great defender but is still working on his outside shooting. That sounds like the formula for how Zion becomes an NBA superstar as well.

Zion has the most amazing underhand scoop I have seen in college ball. He has mastered that shot. I think that he could probably score or get fouled almost every time he touches the ball and if they tripled teamed him- he will make the right decision. The combination of being very wide, strong and an extraordinary leaper makes him extremely difficult to manage at this level and maybe the next. The extended scoop (which takes great strength and control) is his signature shot.

[Jeffrey]

The extended scoop (which takes great strength and control) is his signature shot.

IMO, it's the 360 dunk.

[Reddevil]

IMO, it's the 360 dunk.

Or maybe the tomahawk dunk. Will FL St. appreciate it though? Oooooh oh OOOahoooh OOOahooh OH NO!