Phase III - the First Part of the ACC Season

[Jeffrey]

If moving to the bench gives Cam more opportunity to showcase his skills, he should be 100% behind it. He's not just a spot up shooter. That's Jack. Cam can still play the same amount of minutes, and have more chances to do what he's good at. He's only tanking his draft stock right now anyways.

Do you truly believe starting Jack over Cam is good for Cam's draft stock and confidence? IMO, adjusting substitution patterns makes more sense.

[JayZee]

My observations on Cam's play in recent games; 1) His shooting has been bad. 2) His ball handling not good either. I think a good way to get him going is to set him up for some open 3 point shots. Like the team does for Jack. He takes too many off balance 3 pointers and it looks like he's afraid he's going to get his shot blocked. Maybe even some mid-range jumpers would help him get out of his shooting funk. As for his ball handling, he seems to be over thinking and not just playing his game. Plus, he's not strong with the ball. Getting the ball closer to the basket might help with his ball handling. I'm sure the coaches see the same thing we do and are hard at work trying to get Cam going. It's just a matter of him getting his confidence back. I'll be rooting for him to get it going against a bad Wake team and a bad Wake coach. GoDuke!

His foul trouble has been a problem in the last few games and it seems as though there are follow on effects from that - pressing as he has even fewer minutes/opportunities.

[kAzE]

Do you truly believe starting Jack over Cam is good for Cam's draft stock and confidence? IMO, adjusting substitution patterns makes more sense.

Does Coach K care more about draft stock or winning the national championship? Also, why do you think NBA GMs are naive enough to care that much about whether a guy starts or comes off the bench? Would you rather draft a guy averaging 8 points as a starter or a guy averaging 14 points coming off the bench? Who cares?

Anybody with a working set of eyes can see Jack has been outplaying Cam over the past few games, and it's not really that close.

Putting the ball in Cam's hands more would help his confidence more than hurt it IMO. Basketball is never as simple as jamming all the best players in 1 lineup. The pieces have to fit.

[jv001]

Does Coach K care more about draft stock or winning the national championship? Anybody with a working set of eyes can see Jack has been outplaying Cam over the past few games, and it's not really that close.

Putting the ball in Cam's hands more would help his confidence more than hurt it IMO. Basketball is never as simple as jamming all the best players in 1 lineup. The pieces have to fit.

This would be true if he improves his handle and get's his shots to fall. But how would it affect the team if he continues to play like he's playing now? Maybe it wouldn't hurt to let him have the ball in his hands against teams like Wake but most to the ACC schedule will be tough. I certainly agree Jack White is outplaying Cam at the present time, but if Cam can get it going what a team that would be. Like I said before, I'm sure the coaching staff is working hard on getting Cam up to speed. GoDuke!

[kAzE]

This would be true if he improves his handle and get's his shots to fall. But how would it affect the team if he continues to play like he's playing now? Maybe it wouldn't hurt to let him have the ball in his hands against teams like Wake but most to the ACC schedule will be tough. I certainly agree Jack White is outplaying Cam at the present time, but if Cam can get it going what a team that would be. Like I said before, I'm sure the coaching staff is working hard on getting Cam up to speed. GoDuke!

This is me speculating, but I think the reason he's been so off is because he hasn't gotten as many touches as he would like, so when does get a chance to do something with the ball, he's pressing instead of just playing like he normally would. The foul trouble has definitely contributed to this as well, by limiting his playing time.

Again, I'm not saying cut his minutes, just bring him off the bench so he can do more of what he's good at. It's a waste to use him as a spot up shooter. He can do so much more.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

This is me speculating, but I think the reason he's been so off is because he hasn't gotten as many touches as he would like, so when does get a chance to do something with the ball, he's pressing instead of just playing like he normally would. The foul trouble has definitely contributed to this as well, by limiting his playing time.

Again, I'm not saying cut his minutes, just bring him off the bench so he can do more of what he's good at. It's a waste to use him as a spot up shooter. He can do so much more.

2 reasons I don't think K will start Jack over Cam...and again, this is just my speculation:

A: Jack is doing great in his current role....why risk upsetting what is working.
B: Cam might lose even more confidence if he doesn't start...(and I happen to think confidence is the key to his return to former self).

[Jeffrey]

Again, I'm not saying cut his minutes, just bring him off the bench so he can do more of what he's good at.

What do you consider the ideal lineup for Cam? Do you have statistics showing Duke plays substantially better in your ideal lineup?

It's a waste to use him as a spot up shooter.

If Cam becomes a great spot up shooter, then Duke is very hard to beat. How is that a waste?

[CDu]

This is me speculating, but I think the reason he's been so off is because he hasn't gotten as many touches as he would like, so when does get a chance to do something with the ball, he's pressing instead of just playing like he normally would. The foul trouble has definitely contributed to this as well, by limiting his playing time.

Again, I'm not saying cut his minutes, just bring him off the bench so he can do more of what he's good at. It's a waste to use him as a spot up shooter. He can do so much more.

I tend to agree that a big part of the problem is that he's not getting the touches he's used to getting. The problem with bringing him off the bench is that I don't think it is really going to get him substantially more touches per minute. Barrett is currently averaging 31 mpg, and that's only about to go up in ACC play, as he's averaging 35 mpg against P5 teams and Gonzaga. And really, it's Barrett that is largely the limiting factor on touches for Reddish, as the two somewhat overlap stylistically (at least moreso than any other player with Reddish).

So if Barrett is playing 35 mpg, then there are only 5 mpg in which Reddish is going to be able to be the lead wing. So I don't think that bringing Reddish off the bench is going to fix anything. The bigger thing is that we need to try to figure out a way to get Reddish going when playing alongside at least one of Williamson and Barrett, and also be useful when playing with both. Because there should be zero minutes per game in which two of them aren't on the floor together, and ideally we should get as many minutes with all 3 on the floor as possible (because all 3 should be 30+ mpg players barring foul trouble).

Now, bringing Reddish off the bench is certainly one way to get him playing all of the minutes that Barrett sits. But it isn't the only way. You can still get those additional touches by simply staggering when Reddish and Barrett get their first rest. Since Barrett sits so sparingly anyway, you could bring White in for Reddish, then bring Reddish back in for Barrett a few minutes later. Then, 2-3 minutes later, sub Barrett back in for whomever it makes the most sense to sub for moving forward. You only have to have a ~2-3 minute window each half to account for all of Barrett's rest time anyway.

[kAzE]

What do you consider the ideal lineup for Cam? Do you have statistics showing Duke plays substantially better in your ideal lineup?

If Cam becomes a great spot up shooter, then Duke is very hard to beat. How is that a waste?

2 reasons I don't think K will start Jack over Cam...and again, this is just my speculation:

A: Jack is doing great in his current role...why risk upsetting what is working.
B: Cam might lose even more confidence if he doesn't start...(and I happen to think confidence is the key to his return to former self).

It doesn't matter what I think. I'm not coaching this team. I'm good with whatever Coach K ends up doing. I just think starting Jack is something he might consider.

I tend to agree that a big part of the problem is that he's not getting the touches he's used to getting. The problem with bringing him off the bench is that I don't think it is really going to get him substantially more touches per minute. Barrett is currently averaging 31 mpg, and that's only about to go up in ACC play, as he's averaging 35 mpg against P5 teams and Gonzaga. And really, it's Barrett that is largely the limiting factor on touches for Reddish, as the two somewhat overlap stylistically (at least moreso than any other player with Reddish).

So if Barrett is playing 35 mpg, then there are only 5 mpg in which Reddish is going to be able to be the lead wing. So I don't think that bringing Reddish off the bench is going to fix anything. The bigger thing is that we need to try to figure out a way to get Reddish going when playing alongside at least one of Williamson and Barrett, and also be useful when playing with both. Because there should be zero minutes per game in which two of them aren't on the floor together, and ideally we should get as many minutes with all 3 on the floor as possible (because all 3 should be 30+ mpg players barring foul trouble).

Now, bringing Reddish off the bench is certainly one way to get him playing all of the minutes that Barrett sits. But it isn't the only way. You can still get those additional touches by simply staggering when Reddish and Barrett get their first rest. Since Barrett sits so sparingly anyway, you could bring White in for Reddish, then bring Reddish back in for Barrett a few minutes later. Then, 2-3 minutes later, sub Barrett back in for whomever it makes the most sense to sub for moving forward. You only have to have a ~2-3 minute window each half to account for all of Barrett's rest time anyway.

Now this is a much better counterargument. I agree RJ is going to play a lot. But I believe the thing that has limited Cam is the emergence of Zion as a ball handler. Zion actually initiates the offense more than Cam. I don't think anybody anticipated Zion being such a good ball handler. I think if you did bring Cam off the bench, you bring him in for Zion and move Jack over to the 4.

Totally agree with your 3rd paragraph, and the minute staggering strategy. I don't think Cam needs to be the "lead wing," he just needs some time to be at least the 2nd scoring option, rather than the 3rd. So if he's out there with only 1 of RJ or Zion, I think that would help. You obviously put them all on the floor at the end of the game, but you need to give them all sufficient touches over the course of the game to get a rhythm going. If you can figure out how to do that while still starting Cam, then I'm all for it. But he's not getting enough touches right now.

[Jeffrey]

Now, bringing Reddish off the bench is certainly one way to get him playing all of the minutes that Barrett sits. But it isn't the only way. You can still get those additional touches by simply staggering when Reddish and Barrett get their first rest. Since Barrett sits so sparingly anyway, you could bring White in for Reddish, then bring Reddish back in for Barrett a few minutes later. Then, 2-3 minutes later, sub Barrett back in for whomever it makes the most sense to sub for moving forward. You only have to have a ~2-3 minute window each half to account for all of Barrett's rest time anyway.

IMO, adjusting substitution patterns makes more sense.

[CDu]

It doesn't matter what I think. I'm not coaching this team. I'm good with whatever Coach K ends up doing. I just think starting Jack is something he might consider. I correctly anticipated Javin overtaking Bolden's starting job, so let's see if this one pans out.

I mean, if Reddish keeps playing this poorly, then White SHOULD start over Reddish. And Coach K has already benched Reddish to start the second half in the last game, so it obviously could be that he brings Reddish off the bench soon (if not tonight).

I just don't think that addresses the issue, which is that we need him to figure out how to play as a 3rd option on offense. Because this team won't reach its ceiling unless he does so. This team's ceiling is when Williamson, Barrett, and Reddish are all playing 30+ mpg and at a high level. So whatever is done needs to be done with that goal in mind.

Now this is a much better counterargument. I agree RJ is going to play a lot. But I believe the thing that has limited Cam is the emergence of Zion as a ball handler. Zion actually initiates the offense more than Cam. I think if you did bring Cam off the bench, you bring him in for Zion and move Jack over to the 4. I don't think Cam needs to be the "lead wing," he just needs some time to be at least the 2nd scoring option, rather than the 3rd. So if he's out there with only 1 of RJ or Zion, I think that would help.

The issue is the same, whether it is Barrett or Williamson that comes out. Doesn't really matter who it is. There just are ideally going to be not that many minutes where Reddish isn't going to be the 3rd-best option. If he's playing 30+ mpg as his talent suggests he should be doing, then he's going to be sharing the floor with those guys for over half his minutes. And again, whether or not he comes off the bench or starts, since Barrett and Williamson are going to play as much as possible, it should be pretty easy to stagger the starters' minutes such that Reddish is starting AND able to get all of the minutes when one of Williamson and Barrett are out.

Again, not saying that Coach K won't go the route of bringing Reddish off the bench. It might even happen tonight. I just don't think that's a necessary move, as noted above. There are plenty of ways to get Reddish all of the minutes that Zion and Barrett sit. Bringing him off the bench is just one of the ways it can be done. It's not the only, nor even necessarily the best way to do it. And if confidence is part of the problem, it could be the wrong move too.

[kAzE]

Again, not saying that Coach K won't go the route of bringing Reddish off the bench. It might even happen tonight. I just don't think that's a necessary move, as noted above. There are plenty of ways to get Reddish all of the minutes that Zion and Barrett sit. Bringing him off the bench is just one of the ways it can be done. It's not the only, nor even necessarily the best way to do it. And if confidence is part of the problem, it could be the wrong move too.

I'm not saying "bench Cam" either. I just see a problem, and I'm hypothesizing ways to correct the issue. And I don't think it needs be a long term thing (unless it just works great). I'm also not saying bringing him off the bench is 100% guaranteed to work. I'm saying if he doesn't snap out of this slump, it's something that COULD work, and something Coach K MAY consider.

Coach K is not averse to bringing star players off the bench for the good of the team. He did this with Jon Scheyer, one of the best Duke players ever, in his junior year because it made more sense to bring him off the bench. It doesn't mean he's lost confidence in the player, or that the player is bad. The job of the coaching staff is to put every player in the best position for him to use his talents and help the team succeed. I'm in favor of whatever rotation that achieves this goal.

[DukieInBrasil]

Do you truly believe starting Jack over Cam is good for Cam's draft stock and confidence? IMO, adjusting substitution patterns makes more sense.

as kaze pointed out, why should we or K care about Cam's draft stock? K (and I) care about Natty's. I agree, adjusting the substitution pattern makes a lot of sense. Cam should be on the floor when RJ sits, and then when Zion sits. That alone is 10 - 15 mpg when Cam doesn't have to be 3rd banana, but rather 2nd. I don't have stats on this, but that is probably what is already happening.

What do you consider the ideal lineup for Cam? Do you have statistics showing Duke plays substantially better in your ideal lineup?

Why ask someone else to do your homework? It's just a bad argumentative tactic.

[Kedsy]

Coach K is not averse to bringing star players off the bench for the good of the team. He did this with Jon Scheyer, one of the best Duke players ever, in his junior year because it made more sense to bring him off the bench.

It was his sophomore year.

[Jeffrey]

as kaze pointed out, why should we or K care about Cam's draft stock?

I was responding (notice the quote?) to kAzE's statement "He's only tanking his draft stock right now anyways."

https://forums.dukebasketballreport...48#post1114148

Why ask someone else to do your homework? It's just a bad argumentative tactic.

Really? How exactly do I provide statistics on kAzE's ideal lineup for Cam when I obviously have no idea what it is?

[CDu]

I'm not saying "bench Cam" either.

I'm not saying you said "bench Cam." I'm just saying that I don't know that bringing him off the bench will help his psyche, and that there just aren't that many minutes when one of Zion and Barrett aren't on the floor (like maybe 15 mpg in conference play barring foul trouble). So while I agree with you that trying to get him opportunities with the ball in his hands can help, I'm just pointing that coming off the bench isn't necessary to achieve said goal. It is certainly A way to do it, but it is not the only way. It could well be the approach Coach K takes. Or, he could just take the alternative approach of staggering the substitutions to achieve the same purpose.

Coach K is not averse to bringing star players off the bench for the good of the team. He did this with Jon Scheyer, one of the best Duke players ever, in his junior year because it made more sense to bring him off the bench. It doesn't mean he's lost confidence in the player, or that the player is bad.

I don't have an issue with the idea of bringing a good player off the bench. If it will help Reddish, great. I just don't know that I see how it will help Reddish anymore than just staggering the starters' minutes such that we get the same effect. And noting that, if Reddish's confidence is shaky, sending him to the bench might not be a good idea.

Now, I don't know if confidence is really an issue, but it's certainly a possibility given his recent play.

The job of the coaching staff is to put every player in the best position for him to use his talents and help the team succeed. I'm in favor of whatever rotation that achieves this goal.

I totally agree. I'm just, like you, trying to hypothesize the impact of the two scenarios. And I don't really see a clear benefit of bringing Reddish off the bench (since we can clearly create the same intended result of more touches without changing the starting lineup), whereas I can see a potential downside to doing it (if it shakes his confidence).

Could it work? Sure. A lot of things could work. Or not. But if the goal of any rotation tweak is simply to get Reddish more minutes when he isn't the #3 option to try to get him going, that can be achieved without making changes to the starting lineup. That's all I'm saying. Changing the starters is A way to do it. There are other ways.

[kAzE]

I'm not saying you said "bench Cam." I'm just saying that I don't know that bringing him off the bench will help his psyche, and that there just aren't that many minutes when one of Zion and Barrett aren't on the floor (like maybe 15 mpg in conference play barring foul trouble). So while I agree with you that trying to get him opportunities with the ball in his hands can help, I'm just pointing that coming off the bench isn't necessary to achieve said goal. It is certainly A way to do it, but it is not the only way. It could well be the approach Coach K takes. Or, he could just take the alternative approach of staggering the substitutions to achieve the same purpose.

I'm okay with whatever helps Cam use his skills to the fullest within the team concept. I don't care if he starts or comes off the bench, we all just want him to play well and help the team win. The coaching staff has probably already tried numerous things during this prolonged stretch of Cam's slump (although he's really not helping with all the fouls), so let's see what they do in the next few games. I'm sure they will find some adjustment that works.

[CDu]

I'm okay with whatever helps Cam use his skills to the fullest within the team concept. I don't care if he starts or comes off the bench, we all just want him to play well and help the team win. The coaching staff has probably already tried numerous things during this prolonged stretch of Cam's slump (although he's really not helping with all the fouls), so let's see what they do in the next few games. I'm sure they will find some adjustment that works.

I, too, am okay with whatever helps get Reddish going. He's too talented a player and too important to the team's tourney hopes.

[cato]

I had given up hope of ever seeing Duke play D at this level again. Pressure, steals, turnovers — these are once again Duke’s calling card and everyone else is going to have to adjust to that.

Cam is playing a big part of this. I would be surprised if K passes up the opportunity to impose his defensive will on the other team by bringing Cam off the bench (other than for a game or two against weaker competition).

Of course, we only see glimpses of the team in games, and K has surprised all of us over the years, but if Cam loses his spot I think it will be because he drops off on D.

[Billy Dat]

In terms of Cam's touches relative to everyone else's, I looked up usage rates and found the following:

RJ - 33.7%
Cam - 29.2%
Zion - 28.3%

None of the other rotation guys is anywhere near 20%, which makes sense based on these 3 accounting for such a high overall % (understanding that they aren't always on the court at the same time).

Cam's turnover percentage is 18.9%! He needs to clean that up in a big way, but evidence, perhaps, that he isn't getting the kind of touches that he is traditionally used to, as discussed in various posts above. He also fouls too much, his fouls per 40 is 4.2 a full foul+ above RJ (2.7) and Zion (2.9).

These are areas he can clearly improve...if he can cut down on fouls and turnovers, he'll be on the court more and good stuff will happen...in theory.