2020 Presidential Election

[YmoBeThere]

Definitely looking like Trump can make up the deficit in Arizona. Down to less than 19,000 votes with 123,000 left to be counted.

And with the next batch of 2,279, his hurdle rate just went up to 57.686%

[CameronBornAndBred]

GA almost to 10,000

[CDu]

And with the next batch of 2,279, his hurdle rate just went up to 57.686%

Important also to note that of the 118K ballots outstanding, 47K are provisional or need to be cured (signature error, e.g.). Not all of these will wind up getting counted. Only about 60K are definitely getting counted. Most of those other 47K (35K provisional, 12K to be cured) will get counted, but not all will make it as legal ballots.

That said, those 47K are more likely to be Dems, so maybe Biden wants those to be counted. But it may be that Trump’s opportunity to catch up lies in those other 60K ballots, not the full 118K.

[Devilwin]

Many Biden people hanging outside the WH chanting and whatnot..Not what we need now..

[Wander]

Biden and Kamala's speeches filled me with joy and happiness in their normalcy, gratitude, maturity, and lack of insults. I have nothing left to add beyond that.

[Bluedog]

Biden will be the first President since Gerald Ford (Michigan) to be a graduate of a school in one of the P5 conferences. Yes, it was law, not ugrad. Pretty amazing it's been that long. Enough with the Ivies! Syracuse head football coach thinks it will be a recruiting advantage. I think he's certainly trying to spin things...
“Not only is it a huge honor, but I think it’s a huge recruiting advantage too,” Babers said. “You go around the country and say, ‘Hey, come to Syracuse. You can be President of the United States.’”

[OldPhiKap]

Many Biden people hanging outside the WH chanting and whatnot..Not what we need now..

Why not?

[CDu]

Biden and Kamala's speeches filled me with joy and happiness in their normalcy, gratitude, maturity, and lack of insults. I have nothing left to add beyond that.

My wife watched with me and she teared up during Harris’ speech. It hammered home the magnitude of her election as it is felt by a woman. I don’t have a daughter, but I am so happy for my friends that do have daughters because this was a momentous night for them.

I too was pleased with the tone of positivity of each speech.

[Native]

Many Biden people hanging outside the WH chanting and whatnot..Not what we need now..

I’ll say it: I wonder how many of those folks criticized Trump for having in-person campaign rallies? I agree with the above—the pandemic is still ongoing.

I too was pleased with the tone of positivity of each speech.

Ditto. “Refreshing” is the word I’d use.

[tbyers11]

Biden will be the first President since Gerald Ford (Michigan) to be a graduate of a school in one of the P5 conferences. Pretty amazing it's been that long. Enough with the Ivies!

My wife, a fellow Blue Hen alumna, would be quick to point out that Biden got his undergraduate degree at The University of Delaware. His law degree is from Syracuse. Neither is an Ivy. But Delaware is not a P5 school. Despite producing Joe Flacco.

[OldPhiKap]

My wife, a fellow Blue Hen alumna, would be quick to point out that Biden got his undergraduate degree at The University of Delaware. His law degree is from Syracuse. Neither is an Ivy. But Delaware is not a P5 school. Despite producing Joe Flacco ��.

David Henderson coached there IIRC. So it’s all cool by me.

[CameronBornAndBred]

David Henderson coached there IIRC. So it’s all cool by me.

Henderson was hired after Mike Brey went to ND, I think.

[Tripping William]

David Henderson coached there IIRC. So it’s all cool by me.

As did Mike Brey.

Edit: CB&B beat me to it & is correctamundo.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Biden will be the first President since Gerald Ford (Michigan) to be a graduate of a school in one of the P5 conferences. Yes, it was law, not ugrad. Pretty amazing it's been that long. Enough with the Ivies! Syracuse head football coach thinks it will be a recruiting advantage. I think he's certainly trying to spin things...
“Not only is it a huge honor, but I think it’s a huge recruiting advantage too,” Babers said. “You go around the country and say, ‘Hey, come to Syracuse. You can be President of the United States.’”

Since Power-5 is a very football centric view of the world, I will counter with Clinton, who went to Georgetown.

As I told my Syracuse alum friend today, perhaps now that there will be a Syracuse alum in the White House, our defense department will shift from man-to-man to zone.

[House P]

That 59.3% number only looks that the most recent 30,000 votes added as a trend. Not all votes to come. Before the recent ~40,000 vote dump which was 58.0% Trump/42.0% Biden, Trump needed 57.3%. So those votes were "good" enough and now Trump only needs 57.0% going forward. But it doesn't suggest that all upcoming votes will be that good. In fact, a small 1000 vote dump came in later that was 83% Biden. Now Trump is back to needing 57.3%. Not everyone, including Nate Cohn, are sure the remaining votes are strong enough for Trump to surpass Biden. If you haven't had enough vote tracking in the last few days this guy reports on and breaks down the Arizona vote situation very well (https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer)

Thanks for the heads-up on Garrett Archer’s Twitter account. One thing I learned from Archer is that the Arizona Secretary of State website gives a detailed breakdown of the votes remaining in AZ.

I have been wondering why Cohn and others seem to think Trump is unlikely to make up the gap. The AZ website reveals a couple things which may help to understand their view:

-There are approximately 10k remaining ballots in Apache county (which are expect to go to Biden by a 60% margin)
-There are approximately 18k provisional ballots in Pima county (which as gone to Biden by a 20% margin)
-There are approximately 15k provisional ballot in Maricopa county (which may be split 50/50)

These will likely add about 10k votes to Biden’s lead and, perhaps as importantly, take 43k ballots off the board for Trump to mount a comeback.


By the way, I have probably watched more interviews with Secretaries of State in the past couple of days than I have previously watched in my entire life. I have been impressed with all them. Maybe they are an expedition ally competent groups or maybe it is just refreshing to see a government official doing their job and providing meaningful, factual information without any (noticeable) political spin.

[OldPhiKap]

By the way, I have probably watched more interviews with Secretaries of State in the past couple of days than I have previously watched in my entire life. I have been impressed with all them. Maybe they are an expedition ally competent groups or maybe it is just refreshing to see a government official doing their job and providing meaningful, factual information without any (noticeable) political spin.

We’ve certainly upgraded in Georgia IMO. Hope I am not proved wrong in the next two months.

[sagegrouse]

David Henderson coached there IIRC. So it’s all cool by me.

As did Mike Brey and Duke football coach Bill Murray.

[jimsumner]

What a weird subthread. But, IIRC, Duke did use its connections to Richard Nixon to bolster football recruiting.

It being 2020 and all I will point out that I'm being sarcastic.

[johnb]

[/B]

Yeah, I'm actually fine with Silver's job. I said somewhere way upthread that I think when all the votes are finally in, the national popular vote break might be just a few points off from the final model average, which is just fine with me. The final EV count will also be in the fat part of the 538 distribution.

I think there are some structural issues with polling right now that start with the incredibly low trust in just about every type of institution these days. Pollsters are having a really hard time getting people to respond and no matter how much they weight their demographics "gets", the truth is, they just aren't getting enough folks to respond to get a good read on things.

Has anyone seen information about the wait-in-line differential between the polling places that service Democrat locales (urban, etc) and Republican locales?

I ask because I assume the average wait time for a Dem is significantly longer then for a Rep. And if I’m facing a line around the block, I might just go home even if I’d told a pollster that I was a likely voter.

If true, the pollsters could be more accurate than the polls.

[Bluedog]

Has anyone seen information about the wait-in-line differential between the polling places that service Democrat locales (urban, etc) and Republican locales?

I ask because I assume the average wait time for a Dem is significantly longer then for a Rep. And if I’m facing a line around the block, I might just go home even if I’d told a pollster that I was a likely voter.

If true, the pollsters could be more accurate than the polls.

That may be true, seems logical. A counterpoint may be that in urban locations you likely don't have to travel as far to the polling station as those in spread out areas. So even if wait time is less, total time of activity might not be so. I don't know the data on this though... This year, with expanded mail in and early voting, you'd think "ditching the line" might have been less of an issue. I know that in the heavily Democratic urban area by me (in a non-swing state), the day before early voting took about two hours.