2020 Presidential Election

[Furniture]

Rum and coke here...cheers!!

[Steven43]

Definitely looking like Trump can make up the deficit in Arizona. Down to less than 19,000 votes with 123,000 left to be counted.

This Trump dude is persistent.

[tbyers11]

Georgia notes:

1. Biden now up roughly 7,600 votes. Not many ballots left but unsure exactly how.

2. Georgia allows recalls if the vote is less than 0.5% difference. Currently, Biden is up by 0.19%

3. Dawgs don’t have a QB and their defense is pretty poor. Gators rolled ‘em.

1) Can't be many left. I think the four largest counties (Fulton, DeKalb, Gwinnett, Cobb) and many others have reported most if not all of their provisionals. Here is a twitter account (https://twitter.com/gtryan) that reports the details quite clearly including which counties are officially certified. And the latest tally appears to be Biden by 9,160.
As for the 8900 military overseas that were not among the 17,000 already received and counted I really don't think there are more than a few hundred at most. Gwinnett reported having 3 ballots that fit the criteria (postmarked by Nov 3 and arriving by Nov 6). Between that and the final provisional across the state (EDIT: the replies on @gtryan suggest 10-15K left total). If that is true, Biden probably get his lead over 10000.

2) Biden's lead will not surpass the recount threshold. But I really don't think any recount is going to change a margin of 10000+ votes.

3) Sorry about the outcome of the Cocktail Party. I always root for Georgia over Florida

[mph]

That 59.3% number only looks that the most recent 30,000 votes added as a trend. Not all votes to come. Before the recent ~40,000 vote dump which was 58.0% Trump/42.0% Biden, Trump needed 57.3%. So those votes were "good" enough and now Trump only needs 57.0% going forward. But it doesn't suggest that all upcoming votes will be that good. In fact, a small 1000 vote dump came in later that was 83% Biden. Now Trump is back to needing 57.3%. Not everyone, including Nate Cohn, are sure the remaining votes are strong enough for Trump to surpass Biden. If you haven't had enough vote tracking in the last few days this guy reports on and breaks down the Arizona vote situation very well (https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer)



I think Nate Cohn did a great job explaining the election narrative throughout the last few days. I was following him on Twitter like many of you. However, I don't understand the hate for Nate Silver vs Nate Cohn. My point is not to argue about the polls/modeling as being total crap or being OK. There is a lot to litigate there.

My point is Nate Silver takes the polls and builds models on them. However, Nate Cohn is an actual pollster. He is in charge of all the NYT polls. How does the actual pollster get off scot free but the modeler gets castigated?

Look, this is America 2020. Stop with all the magnanimity and graciousness and pick a Nate!

Vote or Die.jpeg

[tbyers11]

Look, this is America 2020. Stop with all the magnanimity and graciousness and pick a Nate!

Vote or Die.jpeg

If I must.

nate james point.jpg

I pick Nate James

[Tripping William]

If I must.

nate james point.jpg

I pick Nate James

+1 to that.

[bundabergdevil]

Drone light displays are pretty freaking cool.

[YmoBeThere]

Definitely looking like Trump can make up the deficit in Arizona. Down to less than 19,000 votes with 123,000 left to be counted.

FWIW, I believe the hurdle rate at that site is incorrect assuming the only outcomes are Biden/Trump. I get closer to 57.585% not the 56.8% that is showing. 56.8% would still leave a Biden lead of 1937 votes. Math below.

.568*123,348(votes left to count) = 70,062 for Trump leaving 53,286 for Biden

Biden currently has 1,630,127 so that plus the 53,286 = 1,683,413 to Trump's 1,611,414 + 70,062 = 1,681,476 or a difference of 1,937.

This could also be looked at as 2x-18,713 = 123,348, 2x = 142,061, so x= 71,030.5 and 71,030.5/123,348 = 57.5855%

As a check, Biden 1,630,127+(123,348-71,031)=1,630,127+52,317=1,682,444
and Trump 1,611,414+71,031 = 1,682,445

There is some rounding going on so actually Trump would win at that 57.5855%

All this goes to say that Trump could still win AZ, the hurdle is just a bit higher than that webpage shows assuming all numbers are accurate.

Could someone check my math?

[OldPhiKap]

Drone light displays are pretty freaking cool.

Until they come for your guns. Or something.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Watching interview with James Clyburn. He has to feel a great sense of pride, especially after being pretty much solely responsible for bringing Biden's campaign back from the dead.

[Devilwin]

I like that attitude very much and hope it is shared by everyone. That's a lot to ask, but I am optimistic.

We have to rally. As a marine veteran, one of the first thing we learn is to support the CIC (Commander In Chief). Not that I supported Biden. But I can promise you the Bear and the Dragon are licking their chops at our internal issues, and we absolutely must come together and show a united front. Sure we on the right are down, but the country needs every single one of us now. There are enemies everywhere, and when they see us fighting among ourselves it only emboldens them.

[bundabergdevil]

If I must.

nate james point.jpg

I pick Nate James

You, my friend, are playing 3D Nate Chess.

[Tripping William]

Four Seasons Total Landscaping in Philly seems to have received a bit of a windfall ...

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/...conference.amp

No word on whether Stormy Daniels was holding a book-signing at the porn shop next door ...

[YmoBeThere]

FWIW, I believe the hurdle rate at that site is incorrect assuming the only outcomes are Biden/Trump. I get closer to 57.585% not the 56.8% that is showing. 56.8% would still leave a Biden lead of 1937 votes. Math below.

.568*123,348(votes left to count) = 70,062 for Trump leaving 53,286 for Biden

Biden currently has 1,630,127 so that plus the 53,286 = 1,683,413 to Trump's 1,611,414 + 70,062 = 1,681,476 or a difference of 1,937.

This could also be looked at as 2x-18,713 = 123,348, 2x = 142,061, so x= 71,030.5 and 71,030.5/123,348 = 57.5855%

As a check, Biden 1,630,127+(123,348-71,031)=1,630,127+52,317=1,682,444
and Trump 1,611,414+71,031 = 1,682,445

There is some rounding going on so actually Trump would win at that 57.5855%

All this goes to say that Trump could still win AZ, the hurdle is just a bit higher than that webpage shows assuming all numbers are accurate.

Could someone check my math?

One could also have used Excel's Solver function to set this up. And you would come up with the same answer. Yes, I know I'm talking to myself at this point.

[OldPhiKap]

Four Seasons Total Landscaping in Philly seems to have received a bit of a windfall ...

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/...conference.amp

One of the strangest stories of a strange presidency. It’s between an adult bookstore and a crematorium.

My understanding is that Trump tweeted out the announcement of a major press conference at the Four Seasons hotel before it was booked. The hotel then balked. So, they found this place this morning and acted like this was the plan all along. Because of course that’s easier than saying Trump was wrong.

(He was on the golf course anyway).

[Tripping William]

One of the strangest stories of a strange presidency. It’s between an adult bookstore and a crematorium.

My understanding is that Trump tweeted out the announcement of a major press conference at the Four Seasons hotel before it was booked. The hotel then balked. So, they found this place this morning and acted like this was the plan all along. Because of course that’s easier than saying Trump was wrong.

(He was on the golf course anyway).

Rudy was just “tucking in his shirt.”

[Furniture]

Van Jones on CNN about Biden’s speech...

“Boring is the new thrilling”.

Priceless...

[bundabergdevil]

One of the strangest stories of a strange presidency. It’s between an adult bookstore and a crematorium.

My understanding is that Trump tweeted out the announcement of a major press conference at the Four Seasons hotel before it was booked. The hotel then balked. So, they found this place this morning and acted like this was the plan all along. Because of course that’s easier than saying Trump was wrong.

(He was on the golf course anyway).

Rudy was just “tucking in his shirt.”

Dead stiff or the stiff and the dead?

[Tripping William]

Dead stiff or the stiff and the dead?

Beats me. I’m just jonesin’ for some Vivaldi.

[OldPhiKap]

Dead stiff or the stiff and the dead?

Must spread Sporkz and all . . . .