2020 Presidential Election

[Wander]

Are the President's unambiguously racist tweets telling non-white congresswomen to go back to the country they're from going to have any effect whatsoever on voter opinion? Is it an attempt to fire up his base, distract from Epstein or other issues, exploit a real or perceived divide between factions of the Democratic party, or just random tweeting without a component of electoral strategy?

[OldPhiKap]

Are the President's unambiguously racist tweets telling non-white congresswomen to go back to the country they're from going to have any effect whatsoever on voter opinion? Is it an attempt to fire up his base, distract from Epstein or other issues, exploit a real or perceived divide between factions of the Democratic party, or just random tweeting without a component of electoral strategy?

I think it is simply an honest expression of his belief and world view. See, “s*** hole countries” comment some time ago amongst a long line of comments and actions. And no, I don’t think it will dent his numbers at all.

(Three of the four Congresswomen targeted happen to have been born in the US, but I guess ignorance is by far the least troubling part of his tweet).

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Are the President's unambiguously racist tweets telling non-white congresswomen to go back to the country they're from going to have any effect whatsoever on voter opinion? Is it an attempt to fire up his base, distract from Epstein or other issues, exploit a real or perceived divide between factions of the Democratic party, or just random tweeting without a component of electoral strategy?

Well, no. It won't.

[Tripping William]

Well, no. It won't.

Sure it will. In his favor. At least that’s what he’s banking on.

[bundabergdevil]

Are the President's unambiguously racist tweets telling non-white congresswomen to go back to the country they're from going to have any effect whatsoever on voter opinion? Is it an attempt to fire up his base, distract from Epstein or other issues, exploit a real or perceived divide between factions of the Democratic party, or just random tweeting without a component of electoral strategy?

We're about as divided on immigration and immigrants as we've ever been, according to Pew. Although a majority continue to believe immigrants strengthen America, there are some pretty stark differences along party lines. I honestly couldn't begin to guess what Trump's honest-to-goodness personal beliefs are but I do believe a certain subset of his base, particularly the most economically insecure and least educated, blame immigrants in part for their troubles. Harnessing this blame and fear to mobilize votes or action has been used the world over since humans knew other humans were around so it shouldn't come as a surprise that Trump continues to label his political enemies as unamerican. There are plenty of other politicians in the country doing the same thing as Trump, we just haven't had such a brash and undiplomatic President, at least in my lifetime.



FT_19.01.29_ImmigrantsBurden_Partisangap.jpg

[CameronBornAndBred]

Are the President's unambiguously racist tweets telling non-white congresswomen to go back to the country they're from going to have any effect whatsoever on voter opinion? Is it an attempt to fire up his base, distract from Epstein or other issues, exploit a real or perceived divide between factions of the Democratic party, or just random tweeting without a component of electoral strategy?

I'm going to say, definitively, the answer is yes. It will affect VOTER opinion, it just depends on what kind of voter. His base, no doubt they love it. Those who are on the opposite side, the ones who would vote for a BLT sandwich over Trump, it fuels their fire to get him out. But there's another group, and here's the problem I think Trump is going to run into. He didn't beat HRC relying on his base, he beat her because another 15%-20% of voters also tossed their hat in his ring. I am calling them the "Hey, let's give this is a shot" crowd.
That crowd no longer exists. They voted, and now they have seen the results. I have no idea if those people are happy or not with the results, but I am pretty sure that actions like the tweets of today DO weigh on their opinions.

[bundabergdevil]

I'm going to say, definitively, the answer is yes. It will affect VOTER opinion, it just depends on what kind of voter. His base, no doubt they love it. Those who are on the opposite side, the ones who would vote for a BLT sandwich over Trump, it fuels their fire to get him out. But there's another group, and here's the problem I think Trump is going to run into. He didn't beat HRC relying on his base, he beat her because another 15%-20% of voters also tossed their hat in his ring. I am calling them the "Hey, let's give this is a shot" crowd.
That crowd no longer exists. They voted, and now they have seen the results. I have no idea if those people are happy or not with the results, but I am pretty sure that actions like the tweets of today DO weigh on their opinions.

In fairness, bacon.

[YmoBeThere]

That crowd no longer exists. They voted, and now they have seen the results. I have no idea if those people are happy or not with the results, but I am pretty sure that actions like the tweets of today DO weigh on their opinions.

Didn't this already start to play out in Congressional voting?

[dudog84]

Ok, y'all want something that will move the needle, here it is. Health care:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...9o3?li=BBnbfcL

This line actually made me LOL:

"In interviews, several Senate Republicans insisted that Congress could get its act together."

Have they been watching the same Congress I have?

[cspan37421]

"In interviews, several Senate Republicans insisted that Congress could get its act together."

Have they been watching the same Congress I have?

They have a different POV than you. As noted by the great 20th-century curmudgeon, H.L. Mencken, "Democracy is the art and science of running the circus from the monkey-cage."

[Wander]

We're about as divided on immigration and immigrants as we've ever been

I hear you, but 3 of the 4 congresswomen he's referring to were born in New York, Ohio, and Michigan. Is anti-immigration sentiment so strong right now that moderate voters will forgive the racist rhetoric and inaccurate implications because it captures their general emotional state? While it may fire up some people, I would guess it is possible to push this stuff too far to where it starts becoming a counterproductive strategy.

[esl]

Is anti-immigration sentiment so strong right now that moderate voters will forgive the racist rhetoric and inaccurate implications because it captures their general emotional state?.

There is a big difference between being anti-immigration and anti illegal immigration. To equate the two and call anyone who is anti illegal immigration a racist and xenophobe (not saying you are but speaking in generalities) does a great disservice and shuts down a debate that needs to happen.

[dudog84]

There is a big difference between being anti-immigration and anti illegal immigration. To equate the two and call anyone who is anti illegal immigration a racist and xenophobe (not saying you are but speaking in generalities) does a great disservice and shuts down a debate that needs to happen.

But what about when it is the President who is conflating the two? I think that is the point of the OP. Heck, 3 of the 4 aren't even immigrants, and I don't believe the fourth is accused of being illegal. But their skin is darkish and they have "funny" names. Hearkens back to birtherism. What do they say? You dance with who brung ya.

[sagegrouse]

In fairness, bacon.

I moght vote for "bacon" over FDR or Ike or George Washington.

[Wander]

There is a big difference between being anti-immigration and anti illegal immigration. To equate the two and call anyone who is anti illegal immigration a racist and xenophobe (not saying you are but speaking in generalities) does a great disservice and shuts down a debate that needs to happen.

Yes, I totally agree - my statement only refers to the President’s tweets. My bad if that was not clear. Certainly there’s a lot of room for reasonable people of many different political opinions to disagree on immigration policy.

But why are we even talking about immigration regarding the tweetstorm? He said “go back to your country” to a group of people that were mostly born in the US! The fact that we at DBR got sidetracked into talking about immigration as a result of his racist remarks makes me think that those remarks are going to have a net-positive effect on the President’s campaign.

[Jeffrey]

Remember the Alamo? IMO, both sides are disappointing...

https://apple.news/AhczGnRcfR020ATL5c_PeuA

[esl]

But what about when it is the President who is conflating the two? I think that is the point of the OP. Heck, 3 of the 4 aren't even immigrants, and I don't believe the fourth is accused of being illegal. But their skin is darkish and they have "funny" names. Hearkens back to birtherism. What do they say? You dance with who brung ya.

I was talking about the immigration debate in general. My statements about it being wrong to conflate the two applies to everyone, Trump, Pelosi, me etc included.

Wander, not apology necessary. I never thought you were doing that.

[PackMan97]

Remember the Alamo? IMO, both sides are disappointing...

Whataboutism is perhaps the lamest attack there is.

[bundabergdevil]

I hear you, but 3 of the 4 congresswomen he's referring to were born in New York, Ohio, and Michigan. Is anti-immigration sentiment so strong right now that moderate voters will forgive the racist rhetoric and inaccurate implications because it captures their general emotional state? While it may fire up some people, I would guess it is possible to push this stuff too far to where it starts becoming a counterproductive strategy.

In posting the Pew research, I was mostly trying to suggest why it could be viewed as strategic. Sadly, I don't think Trump's singling out women of color and implying they are not American by telling them to go back to their countries is anything new or exceptional for him. He won in 2016 despite saying similar things like his Obama birther-ism/Muslim statements, which are still widely believed by a decent chunk of party faithful (last polling I've seen in 2017). He, well his son, has already pushed racially divisive language about Kamala Harris not being a "real" African American. If you're his political opponent and you're a person of color, you should pretty much expect that one line of attack he'll use against you is to claim you're not a "real" American that belongs here ---- which I think is fundamentally rooted in anti-immigrant sentiment. There are about 60 million Americans who either think this is great, laugh it off, or don't care enough to not support the guy.

I believe something like 90% of the country has their minds made up on this guy. I've said it before but I don't think anything he says could change most of his supporters' or detractors' opinions. It's all priced in. I think for significant new needle movement, there'd have to be something like a recession, severely bungled domestic or national security event, etc.

[OldPhiKap]

I believe something like 90% of the country has their minds made up on this guy. I've said it before but I don't think anything he says could change most of his supporters' or detractors' opinions. It's all priced in. I think for significant new needle movement, there'd have to be something like a recession, severely bungled domestic or national security event, etc.

I don't even think that moves the needle much. Recession will be the Fed's fault, other problems will be other people's fault. If you've stuck with him to this point, you're on for the whole ride.

I think Trump's election strategy is pretty simple. How do you get reelected with a ceiling of about 42% approval? Make the opponent even less popular than you are. Hence, the attempt to brand the Democrats as being the party of folks who do not represent the "real America" MAGA represents. Full out culture war, which is his sweet spot.

Turn out your folks, suppress your opponent, claim shenanigans if the election does not turn out your way. Trump is not subtle.