2020 Presidential Election

[CameronBornAndBred]

Based on fallout from the last debate they are probably doing him a favor

He should be thrilled. He gets to spend his first two minutes of the debate saying literally anything he wants to, without interruption.

The rule I like is that further interruptions count against your time, so if Trump blabs constantly like last time, Biden will have about 5 minutes to himself to close out.

[Steven43]

He should be thrilled. He gets to spend his first two minutes of the debate saying literally anything he wants to, without interruption.

The rule I like is that further interruptions count against your time, so if Trump blabs constantly like last time, Biden will have about 5 minutes to himself to close out.

5 (minutes)??? Biden would prefer 55. And he still might not finish in the allotted time. 😉

[JasonEvans]

5 (minutes)??? Biden would prefer 55. And he still might not finish in the allotted time. 😉

Joe Biden is a human filibuster.

[SouthernDukie]

In my state of FL, Republicans have almost 150,000 more new registered voters than Democrats do. Still calling my state a coin flip. I’ll be shocked if Biden wins by some of the numbers I’ve been reading in recent polls (where he’s up by 4-7 points). But we shall see.

[CameronBornAndBred]

He should be thrilled. He gets to spend his first two minutes of the debate saying literally anything he wants to, without interruption.

The rule I like is that further interruptions count against your time, so if Trump blabs constantly like last time, Biden will have about 5 minutes to himself to close out.

So I misread the rules. It's not JUST the first two minutes of the debate, it's the first two minutes that each candidate is given to reply to every answer. That is going to make for some interesting split screen faces throughout the night.

[Bluedog]

So I misread the rules. It's not JUST the first two minutes of the debate, it's the first two minutes that each candidate is given to reply to every answer. That is going to make for some interesting split screen faces throughout the night.

Right it's two minutes for the initial reply to the question and then open mic for back and forth after each person gets his first response.

[cato]

In my state of FL, Republicans have almost 150,000 more new registered voters than Democrats do. Still calling my state a coin flip. I’ll be shocked if Biden wins by some of the numbers I’ve been reading in recent polls (where he’s up by 4-7 points). But we shall see.

That’s a fascinating fact. What does “new” mean in this case — since the 2018 election? I don’t recall everything that happened in FL in the mid-terms, but I do recall the Dems falling short of nabbing the Governor’s office and the Reps flipping a Senate seat.

I agree that a 4-7 point Biden lead seems off. The 538 average is currently 3.7:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/florida/

Add some regular polling error and the possibility that Trump voters are still being undercounted, and you’re prediction of a coin toss seems right to me.

[curtis325]

That’s a fascinating fact. What does “new” mean in this case — since the 2018 election? I don’t recall everything that happened in FL in the mid-terms, but I do recall the Dems falling short of nabbing the Governor’s office and the Reps flipping a Senate seat.

I agree that a 4-7 point Biden lead seems off. The 538 average is currently 3.7:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...neral/florida/

Add some regular polling error and the possibility that Trump voters are still being undercounted, and you’re prediction of a coin toss seems right to me.

Polling errors can go either way. Nate Silver has Biden with 71% chance in Florida. Not a lock, but a little better than a coin flip.

[CameronBornAndBred]

That’s a fascinating fact. What does “new” mean in this case — since the 2018 election? I don’t recall everything that happened in FL in the mid-terms, but I do recall the Dems falling short of nabbing the Governor’s office and the Reps flipping a Senate seat.

I agree that a 4-7 point Biden lead seems off. The 538 average is currently 3.7:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...neral/florida/

Add some regular polling error and the possibility that Trump voters are still being undercounted, and you’re prediction of a coin toss seems right to me.

Polling errors can go either way. Nate Silver has Biden with 71% chance in Florida. Not a lock, but a little better than a coin flip.

Cato's question is important. Upthread, we wondered about the same with all of the new GOP registrations. That's wonderful and all that they are getting voters out, but do the new folks outnumber the gullywasher of Dems that 2018 produced?
Also..."registered" does not equal "voter". Let's see how those folks do with a long line at the polls staring them in the face. (Under the Florida sun.)
I truly believe Trump has shot himself in the foot with his discouraging mail in voting. (Which Florida is really good at doing, I hear.)

[cato]

Polling errors can go either way. Nate Silver has Biden with 71% chance in Florida. Not a lock, but a little better than a coin flip.

Do you happen to recall what 538 said about DeSantis in 2018? He was not a favorite leading up to the election, but it turned out to be a coin toss.

[tommy]

Do you happen to recall what 538 said about DeSantis in 2018? He was not a favorite leading up to the election, but it turned out to be a coin toss.

Last forecast 538 had which was just a few days before the election had Gillum as a 4-point favorite, with a 78% likelihood of winning. He lost by about half a point, in what was deemed one of the biggest upsets of the night.

[ClemmonsDevil]

Cato's question is important. Upthread, we wondered about the same with all of the new GOP registrations. That's wonderful and all that they are getting voters out, but do the new folks outnumber the gullywasher of Dems that 2018 produced?
Also..."registered" does not equal "voter". Let's see how those folks do with a long line at the polls staring them in the face. (Under the Florida sun.)
I truly believe Trump has shot himself in the foot with his discouraging mail in voting. (Which Florida is really good at doing, I hear.)

This is a good post. Also something important to consider, did he shoot himself in the foot on 5th Avenue?

[CameronBlue]

This is a good post. Also something important to consider, did he shoot himself in the foot on 5th Avenue?

Also something to consider...who said all of those Pub registrants are going to vote for Trump? Perhaps a large segment are over 65ers, transplants who may have been registered elsewhere but now see Trump's legal actions against Obamacare as a true treat to entitlements and the social safety net, motivating them to man the ramparts, get off the shuffleboard and into the voting booth? If Trump is truly the polarizing force he is credited to be there are a panoply of issues upon which he is apt to polarize the electorate that don't fall along traditional party lines.

[ClemmonsDevil]

Also something to consider...who said all of those Pub registrants are going to vote for Trump? Perhaps a large segment are over 65ers, transplants who may have been registered elsewhere but now see Trump's legal actions against Obamacare as a true treat to entitlements and the social safety net, motivating them to man the ramparts, get off the shuffleboard and into the voting booth? If Trump is truly the polarizing force he is credited to be there are a panoply of issues upon which he is apt to polarize the electorate that don't fall along traditional party lines.

More good stuff. There is also predilection among younger voters to register as independent but to not function as Independents, rather they skew very much liberal. We shall see who shows up but registrations are somewhat like demographics. They are suggestive but they are not destiny.

[tbyers11]

More good stuff. There is also predilection among younger voters to register as independent but to not function as Independents, rather they skew very much liberal. We shall see who shows up but registrations are somewhat like demographics. They are suggestive but they are not destiny.

This is a good point about independent or as Florida calls them NPA (No Party Affiliated) voters. According to this article here are the total raw numbers for D, R, and NPA between 2016 and 2020

	D	R	NPA (Ind)
2020	5300166	5170189	3754886
2016	4875370	4553776	3087306
Diff	424796	616413	667580

As others have stated, party registration doesn't automatically equal vote for that party especially for the newly registered NPAs. Who are they voting for?

Also, how many people went to the polls in 2016? If you those 3 groups together for 2016 you get 12.51 million. 9.42 million people voted for President in FL in 2016 (4.62 R, 4.50 D, 0.3 other). Who are the 3 million 2016 registered voters who didn't vote in 2016 voting for? R, D, or No one?

I agree with Southern Dukie that this will be a close race. Very likely within the +3.5% Biden that 538 is currently showing as average and +3.0% that they are projecting as outcome.

[YmoBeThere]

I will offer this, looking at trends can be helpful. Based on 538, in Florida, HRC was a slight favorite to win. Gillum was a 77% favorite to win and incumbent Bill Nelson was a 70.4% favorite. All lost. So while polling errors can go both directions, a small sample in FL says they appear to be trendingin one direction only. We have noted SouthernDukie's comments earlier in the summer about "reluctant" Trump voters. Recent poll to election results underlie their comments. Whether this is enough for Trump to overcome Biden's poll lead is the question. Scott ovecame a 2.2 pt deficit, DeSantis a 4.2 pt deficit and Trump a 0.6 pt deficit.

[ClemmonsDevil]

I will offer this, looking at trends can be helpful. Based on 538, in Florida, HRC was a slight favorite to win. Gillum was a 77% favorite to win and incumbent Bill Nelson was a 70.4% favorite. All lost. So while polling errors can go both directions, a small sample in FL says they appear to be trendingin one direction only. We have noted SouthernDukie's comments earlier in the summer about "reluctant" Trump voters. Recent poll to election results underlie their comments. Whether this is enough for Trump to overcome Biden's poll lead is the question. Scott ovecame a 2.2 pt deficit, DeSantis a 4.2 pt deficit and Trump a 0.6 pt deficit.

Ooooh fun! This presupposes that the polling misses were correlated between the 2 elections and that shy Trump voters are an explanation. My inclination is to say...maybe. I would argue there is no evidence that the correlation between the two polling misses In Florida is related to shy Trump voters. There is no evidence that this group exists. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence, of course, but I think this connection is tenuous at best. I would assume the more likely answer is that polling in certain states and among certain demographics is spotty at best and that Florida is expensive and difficult to poll accurately. Maybe those polling misses were for different reasons and unrelated to each other. I would assume that is more likely.

[Bostondevil]

Last forecast 538 had which was just a few days before the election had Gillum as a 4-point favorite, with a 78% likelihood of winning. He lost by about half a point, in what was deemed one of the biggest upsets of the night.

Upset or successful voter suppression?

[rsvman]

This morning I heard that Trump's initial reaction to the new rules for the debate, after "It's not at all fair," was that allowing Biden to go without interruption for two minutes was a good thing for Trump, because (according to Trump) if Joe has to go for that long he will "lose his train of thought" because (and I'm not making this up!) he's "gonzo."

This is what we have come to in American politics. I think it is incredibly sad.

[CDu]

I will offer this, looking at trends can be helpful. Based on 538, in Florida, HRC was a slight favorite to win. Gillum was a 77% favorite to win and incumbent Bill Nelson was a 70.4% favorite. All lost. So while polling errors can go both directions, a small sample in FL says they appear to be trendingin one direction only. We have noted SouthernDukie's comments earlier in the summer about "reluctant" Trump voters. Recent poll to election results underlie their comments. Whether this is enough for Trump to overcome Biden's poll lead is the question. Scott ovecame a 2.2 pt deficit, DeSantis a 4.2 pt deficit and Trump a 0.6 pt deficit.

Just to be clear, looking at 3 data points from the same election does not equal looking at a trend. The polls in Florida clearly missed in 2016. That could have been a one-off, or it could be evidence of a trend. But looking only at the 2016 polls vs election results in Florida isn't examining trends.