2020 Presidential Election

[camion]

And Chicago has reached 150% of its 2020 registered live voters.

It’s a start.

[Kdogg]

CNN posted this yesterday. It's their Electoral College projection of 2020 vs 2016 with 16 days left. As we all know this ain't over. As crazy as Trumps strategy seems, it may be working down the stretch.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/...all-ip-vpx.cnn

[johnb]

Whoever recommended ear buds and a podcast for the wait line to vote was spot on. Many thanks. Very enjoyable waiting to vote in beautiful fall weather, listening to the new Bob Dylan album.

For those who need to wait in longer lines, here are some suggestions featuring musicians besides Bob Dylan who we’re also born within a year (or so) of Joe Biden:

Paul Simon, Art Garfunkel, David Crosby& Graham Nash (CSN), Jerry Garcia&Mickey Hart (Grateful Dead), Brian Wilson & Al Jardine&Bruce Johnston&Mike Love (Beach Boys), Aretha Franklin, Carole King, Joan Baez, Janis Joplin, Joni Mitchell, Mama Cass Elliott, Barbra Streisand, Doris Coley&Shirley Owens&Beverly Lee (the Shirelles), Reece White (Earth, Wind, and Fire), Martha Reeves (Martha and the Vandellas), Curtis Mayfield,

Lou Reed&John Cale&Sterling Morrison (Velvet Underground), Steve Miller, Harry Chapin, Tammy Wynette, Jesse Colin Young, Jessi Colter, Bobbie Gentry, Daniel Barenboim, Jean-Luc Ponte, Country Joe McDonald,

Jerry Jeff Walker, John Denver, Neil Diamond, Fabian, Richie Havens, Aaron Neville, George Benson, Sly Stone, Wilson Pickett, Ann-Margret, Ritchie Valenzuela, Julio Iglesias, Barry Manilow, Chick Correa, George Clinton, Leon Russell, Paul Anka, Buffy Sainte Marie, Annette Funicello,

Otis Redding, Jim Seals (Seals&Crofts), Graeme Edge&Mike Pinder&Ray Thomas (Moody Blues), Jon Lord (Deep Purple), Chubby Checker, Guy Clark, Dr John, Percy Sledge, Eddie Rabbitt, Mac Davis, BJ Thomas, Melvin Franklin&David Ruffin (The Temptations),

Roger McGuinn (The Byrds), Eric Burdon (The Animals), Robbie Robertson&Rick Danko&Richard Manuel (The Band), Tom Fogerty (Creedence Clearwater Revival), Roger Waters&Richard Wright (Pink Floyd), Bob Brunning&Christine McVie (Fleetwood Mac), Dave Clark (5), Chuck Negron&Danny Hutton&Corey Wells (3 Dog Night), john Dalton &Peter Quaife (The Kinks), Mike Nesmith&Peter Tork (The Monkees), Jim Kale (Guess Who), Brian Jones&Mick Jagger&Keith Richards&Charlie Watts (Rolling Stones), Linda McCartney, Pete Best, Paul McCartney, George Harrison (Beatles).

And some who died a long time ago: Harry Chapin (1981), Jim Croce (1973), Jimi Hendrix (1970), and Ritchie Valens—who died with Buddy Holly on Feb 3, 1959, which according to “American Pie,” was the day the music died.

In retrospect, I guess the music didn’t entirely die.

[Furniture]

CNN posted this yesterday. It's their Electoral College projection of 2020 vs 2016 with 16 days left. As we all know this ain't over. As crazy as Trumps strategy seems, it may be working down the stretch.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/...all-ip-vpx.cnn

.

This CNN clip is a fantastic message for over confident dems.

[OldPhiKap]

A good read by Nate — 8 tips to stay sane in the final 15 days of the campaign:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-the-campaign/

[johnb]

.

This CNN clip is a fantastic message for over confident dems.

Its sobering, and a great clip, but it’s been about 4 years since I met a dem who was over confident about a presidential election. There may be some calculation in the official line of concern to try to maximize the vote, and schadenfreude over the Republican pratfalls, but lingering just below those feelings is a thin lining of dread that seals off an ocean of panic.

[CameronBornAndBred]

We voted this morning. Got to the polling site at 7:30, polls opened at 8. Only 7 people in line in front of us, by the time we left at 8:05 the line was easily a 45 minute wait.

They didn't give out the traditional "I Voted" sticker, which was a bummer. I get that they want to reduce in person contact, but they could have a reel of stickers that folks could take their own from instead of a poll worker handing them out.
We did get to keep the pen we used to fill out our ballot. I'm always in need of a pen, so there's that silver lining.

[OldPhiKap]

We voted this morning. Got to the polling site at 7:30, polls opened at 8. Only 7 people in line in front of us, by the time we left at 8:05 the line was easily a 45 minute wait.

They didn't give out the traditional "I Voted" sticker, which was a bummer. I get that they want to reduce in person contact, but they could have a reel of stickers that folks could take their own from instead of a poll worker handing them out.
We did get to keep the pen we used to fill out our ballot. I'm always in need of a pen, so there's that silver lining.

I'm surprised you don't vote with a brush and a palette.

[CameronBornAndBred]

I'm surprised you don't vote with a brush and a palette.

I'd hate to think about my beautiful painting tying up the docket at the Supreme Court.

[Wander]

Its sobering, and a great clip, but it’s been about 4 years since I met a dem who was over confident about a presidential election. There may be some calculation in the official line of concern to try to maximize the vote, and schadenfreude over the Republican pratfalls, but lingering just below those feelings is a thin lining of dread that seals off an ocean of panic.

Agreed. I'm sure my bubble is not a representative sample in many ways, but I know literally zero people who I would describe as "overconfident." Everyone I know is somewhere on the spectrum of "cautiously optimistic" to "outright terrified".

In more serious news, Biden picked up milkshakes from Cookout in Durham yesterday, so that should solidify the Duke alum vote!

[OldPhiKap]

In more serious news, Biden picked up milkshakes from Cookout in Durham yesterday, so that should solidify the Duke alum vote!

Moderate vanilla, or radical leftist strawberry? I need details!

[PackMan97]

Moderate vanilla, or radical leftist strawberry? I need details!

If he wanted the Raleigh vote, he'd go to Char-Grill.

[mkirsh]

If he wanted the Raleigh vote, he'd go to Char-Grill.

Now we are a nation divided over our drive through BBQ joints? When will it end?

I live about an hour from the closest cook-out but I seriously considered the 100 mile round trip for a banana fudge shake last weekend

[mph]

This is bound to make things better.

Liberal and conservative activists are targeting local media markets with news sites that push partisan narratives while posing as run of the mill local media sources. The hope is to capitalize on the public’s trust of the local media. Apparently, we’re not done until we destroy confidence in every American institution.

The Copper Courier in Arizona and the Decatur Times in Alabama both describe themselves as startup news sites helping to fill the void from the decline of local news outlets across the U.S.

In fact, they are both the fruit of partisan efforts to shape the news narrative, from the left and the right, ahead of the 2020 election.

[LasVegas]

CNN posted this yesterday. It's their Electoral College projection of 2020 vs 2016 with 16 days left. As we all know this ain't over. As crazy as Trumps strategy seems, it may be working down the stretch.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/...all-ip-vpx.cnn

In 2016, Trump was just a normal polling error away from victory. In 2020, he is not. The data is completely different this year.

[Chicago 1995]

This is bound to make things better.

Liberal and conservative activists are targeting local media markets with news sites that push partisan narratives while posing as run of the mill local media sources. The hope is to capitalize on the public’s trust of the local media. Apparently, we’re not done until we destroy confidence in every American institution.

I don't think this is anything new. Look at Sinclair's management of its local TV markets, for example, and it's providing an outlet for Seb Gorka.

[MarkD83]

Now we are a nation divided over our drive through BBQ joints? When will it end?

I live about an hour from the closest cook-out but I seriously considered the 100 mile round trip for a banana fudge shake last weekend

We have always been divided when it comes to BBQ...

https://forums.dukebasketballreport...ke-vs-Kentucky

[CDu]

In 2016, Trump was just a normal polling error away from victory. In 2020, he is not. The data is completely different this year.

Yeah, I would note a several key differences between the 2016 and 2020 races:
- Historically polarizing candidate on the Dem side in 2016; Biden just doesn't seem to generate the animosity against that Clinton did
- Unknown commodity on the GOP side in 2016 (at least in terms of how he would govern); now the public has 4 years of Trump as president to guide their voting decisions
- No relevant third-party candidates; not that Johnson/Weld or Stein were hugely effective, but they were relevant alternatives to JUST enough of the anti-establishment crowd to matter
- The Dem candidate took the Midwest for granted in 2016; Clinton didn't campaign heavily in Michigan or Wisconsin, and that proved costly. Biden has not followed that script
- Pollsters not adjusting for education status, which proved quite relevant in 2016; polling was more accurate in 2018 for example
- Biden's polling lead is larger (~4 points nationally, and ~3 points in the swing states) than Clinton's was in 2016 at this point; the last time this race was as it was in Oct 2016 was back in early June.
- A much more volatile race in 2016: the race oscillated a TON in 2016, with the national race dipping to within 1% multiple times; this means that things were more open to shifts than they have been this time around, where Biden
- Way less early voting, and way less voting in general; people seem way more motivated to vote this time around

None of this is to say that the race is over. Trump could absolutely still win. It's about a 1 in 9 shot per fivethirtyeight, which is absolutely doable. And that's ignoring any shenanigans. But 2016 was a very different race in a lot of ways. 2016 is certainly a cautionary tale, but I'm not sure how predictive it is for 2020.

[OldPhiKap]

Yeah, I would note a several key differences between the 2016 and 2020 races:
- Historically polarizing candidate on the Dem side in 2016; Biden just doesn't seem to generate the animosity against that Clinton did
- Unknown commodity on the GOP side in 2016 (at least in terms of how he would govern); now the public has 4 years of Trump as president to guide their voting decisions
- No relevant third-party candidates; not that Johnson/Weld or Stein were hugely effective, but they were relevant alternatives to JUST enough of the anti-establishment crowd to matter
- The Dem candidate took the Midwest for granted in 2016; Clinton didn't campaign heavily in Michigan or Wisconsin, and that proved costly. Biden has not followed that script
- Pollsters not adjusting for education status, which proved quite relevant in 2016; polling was more accurate in 2018 for example
- Biden's polling lead is larger (~4 points nationally, and ~3 points in the swing states) than Clinton's was in 2016 at this point; the last time this race was as it was in Oct 2016 was back in early June.
- A much more volatile race in 2016: the race oscillated a TON in 2016, with the national race dipping to within 1% multiple times; this means that things were more open to shifts than they have been this time around, where Biden
- Way less early voting, and way less voting in general; people seem way more motivated to vote this time around

None of this is to say that the race is over. Trump could absolutely still win. It's about a 1 in 9 shot per fivethirtyeight, which is absolutely doable. And that's ignoring any shenanigans. But 2016 was a very different race in a lot of ways. 2016 is certainly a cautionary tale, but I'm not sure how predictive it is for 2020.

and I would add a huge one: we have a pandemic which has swamped most other issues with voters, and an incumbent whose performance with said pandemic is overwhelmingly seen as negative. I think this outweighs about everything.

[CDu]

and I would add a huge one: we have a pandemic which has swamped most other issues with voters, and an incumbent whose performance with said pandemic is overwhelmingly seen as negative. I think this outweighs about everything.

Yep, I had intended to add another bullet related to this:
- In 2016, the largest galvanizing force was probably "the emails!", which was anti-Dem; in 2020 the largest galvanizing force is undoubtedly COVID, which is anti-Trump

In 2016, Clinton's polarizing history was the driving force of the election. She just couldn't get across to enough undecideds to win. In 2020, Trump's COVID response has been the driving force of the election. It remains to be seen if he can overcome it.