2020 Presidential Election

[wavedukefan70s]

To keep this horse racey, I don't know that moving the needle is the right way to approach anything with this election. There seems to be 38-40ish% of the population who will vote for him no matter what. And the phrase "no matter what" has been sorely tested, but that base has proven to be rock solid. There is another 3-5% which is somewhat more elastic. If Trump gets his voting block to around 45% he probably wins. At 43% he is very unlikely to win. Closer to 40% he can't win. All of these things that he has to play defense against are stopping him from gaining supporters. So another day or 3 of playing defense in a race that is getting late. The Durham report is not coming out. The preliminary Burisma report failed to land. It isn't impossible, but I struggle to see how Trump eats into the Biden lead unless he just decimates Biden in the debates. And historically debates don't move the needle (that phrase again...) the way the media pitches that it does.

Its absolutely miserable for those in the middle .the voters whom have no faith on either candidate.could it come down to which vp you like the best.that could be a interesting battle.

[JasonEvans]

CBS/YouGov has a series of swing state polls that are interesting both at the Presidential and the Senate levels.

SC - Trump +10 but Graham only leads Harrison 45-44. There have been a lot of polls lately showing Graham is in a real dogfight for his senate seat. I'd rate this one as in more danger for the GOP than the Georgia seats. Meanwhile, though Graham is in trouble, Trump seems to have a comfortably lead.

GA - Trump +1, 47-46, but Purdue leading Ossoff 47-42. That's a nice lead for the incumbent in a race that many have seen as really close (though polls that actually find Ossoff in the lead are few and far between). Georgia being that close at the presidential level is a real sign of how far Trump is down in the polls. GA +1 is the kind of number you get when the GOP candidate is losing the national popular vote by 7+ points.

NC - Biden +2, 48-46 and Cal Cunningham is winning the senate race in a laugher, 48-38, over Tom Tillis. Ouch, these are really bad numbers for the GOP in a key battleground state. There aren't many scenarios that make sense where Trump wins despite losing NC.

-Jason "you can read the full poll here -- https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-b...rt-09-27-2020/ " Evans

[JasonEvans]

Just in...

Here is the biggest polling news of the day... heck, biggest polling news of the past week. The highly regarded Upshot NYTimes poll (A+ from 538) that has taken great pains to find supposedly hidden Trump voters has new numbers from Pennsylvania. I need not remind you that nearly everyone says PA is the tipping point state, the state that puts either side over the 270 EV hump. If you can find a map that makes sense that has Trump winning without PA, I'd love to see it.

Anyway, the NYT poll finds Biden up 9 in PA, 49-40. Ouch!

Poll link here

[OldPhiKap]

Just in...

Here is the biggest polling news of the day... heck, biggest polling news of the past week. The highly regarded Upshot NYTimes poll (A+ from 538) that has taken great pains to find supposedly hidden Trump voters has new numbers from Pennsylvania. I need not remind you that nearly everyone says PA is the tipping point state, the state that puts either side over the 270 EV hump. If you can find a map that makes sense that has Trump winning without PA, I'd love to see it.

Anyway, the NYT poll finds Biden up 9 in PA, 49-40. Ouch!

Poll link here

I think this is key from Jason’s link:

Another warning sign for the president: Nearly half of all voters, 47 percent, “strongly disapprove” of how he handles his job as president, evidence of entrenched opposition with five weeks until Election Day and voting already underway in Pennsylvania. A smaller share, 32 percent, strongly disapproved of Mr. Biden.

[bundabergdevil]

Just in...

Here is the biggest polling news of the day... heck, biggest polling news of the past week. The highly regarded Upshot NYTimes poll (A+ from 538) that has taken great pains to find supposedly hidden Trump voters has new numbers from Pennsylvania. I need not remind you that nearly everyone says PA is the tipping point state, the state that puts either side over the 270 EV hump. If you can find a map that makes sense that has Trump winning without PA, I'd love to see it.

Anyway, the NYT poll finds Biden up 9 in PA, 49-40. Ouch!

Poll link here

Interesting. That result is on the high end of all polls with the RCP average coming in around 5.3. The hypothesis is most polling operations miss 'hidden' Trump voters so the results you would expect should be a margin on the tighter end, not the bigger end.

There are so many moving parts in PA with the voting changes, DvR mail-in dynamics, legal battles (Republicans taking one up to the SC), election official retirements, etc that it's bigly FU but hopefully not BAR.

[Steven43]

NC - Biden +2, 48-46 and Cal Cunningham is winning the senate race in a laugher, 48-38, over Tom Tillis. Ouch, these are really bad numbers for the GOP in a key battleground state. There aren't many scenarios that make sense where Trump wins despite losing NC.

Wow, Cunningham is polling that far ahead of Thom “Don’t Call Me Tom” Tillis? That’s pretty amazing considering the hundreds of attack ads on Cunningham I have seen (tv) and heard (radio) over the past couple of months.

The Tillis campaign has been going after him with everything they’ve got, and I’m sick of it. It’s brutal living in North Carolina right now.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Crazietalk's chat room, Section 21, will be up and running during the debate tomorrow night. Information here, being mindful that unlike 4 years ago that many of us are streaming vs "live" viewing.

http://crazietalk.net/ourhouse/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=6019

To join the chat, there is no need to register on the site. Just click the link in the thread and choose whatever username you want, and leave the password blank.

[OldPhiKap]

Crazietalk's chat room, Section 21, will be up and running during the debate tomorrow night. Information here, being mindful that unlike 4 years ago that many of us are streaming vs "live" viewing.

http://crazietalk.net/ourhouse/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=6019

To join the chat, there is no need to register on the site. Just click the link in the thread and choose whatever username you want, and leave the password blank.

1. CB&B’s chat is top notch. Highly recommend.
2. CB&B’s chatbot hates me. And yes, it’s personal.

[OldPhiKap]

Georgia peeps:

A site to track your mail-in ballot if you choose to vote that way:

https://www.augustachronicle.com/new...entee-ballot/1

My ballot is in and accepted, done. You can track yours too. Including, reportedly, if it has been rejected.

[LasVegas]

ABC/WaPo poll just released finds Biden up 54-45 among likely voters. Two high quality PA polls today and both had Biden +9....

[bundabergdevil]

Crazietalk's chat room, Section 21, will be up and running during the debate tomorrow night. Information here, being mindful that unlike 4 years ago that many of us are streaming vs "live" viewing.

http://crazietalk.net/ourhouse/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=6019

To join the chat, there is no need to register on the site. Just click the link in the thread and choose whatever username you want, and leave the password blank.

Hah. It does feel like the play-offs are starting tonight...

[ClemmonsDevil]

It seems to me Biden is the worst kind of person to debate for Trump (I would have said this about Sanders too). Biden has a good grasp of policy but is less wonkish and polished than Clinton, which I think may be a strength for Biden. Trump can dominate more staid politicians (Bush the Younger, Rubio) with bombast and invectives. Biden can discuss healthcare policy and is also fairly likely to call Trump a wall-eyed trout sniffer or some other crazy insult as well. I think Joe's combative nature makes him a match for Trump tonight. Word on the street is Biden is approaching this as the front runner and is going to try to not get too bogged down in the personal attacks. I'm pretty fired up to see but will probably miss most of it working. Stupid work.

[OldPhiKap]

It seems to me Biden is the worst kind of person to debate for Trump (I would have said this about Sanders too). Biden has a good grasp of policy but is less wonkish and polished than Clinton, which I think may be a strength for Biden. Trump can dominate more staid politicians (Bush the Younger, Rubio) with bombast and invectives. Biden can discuss healthcare policy and is also fairly likely to call Trump a wall-eyed trout sniffer or some other crazy insult as well. I think Joe's combative nature makes him a match for Trump tonight. Word on the street is Biden is approaching this as the front runner and is going to try to not get too bogged down in the personal attacks. I'm pretty fired up to see but will probably miss most of it working. Stupid work.

Unfortunately I will likely miss it as well. Taping it for future perusal.

[Furniture]

Hah. It does feel like the play-offs are starting tonight...

The tv showed a few clips of the 2016 debates last night. I had forgotten how tough Trump was on Clinton. Gosh, sometimes he was absolutely brutal telling her that he would put her in jail and the the constant talking over her. I wonder if he will be the same tonight and how Biden will deal with it? I think Hillary remained calm and aloof which could have been perceived as weak or....I have a feeling Biden will not deal with him the same way. It must be difficult to decide how to respond.

[bundabergdevil]

It seems to me Biden is the worst kind of person to debate for Trump (I would have said this about Sanders too). Biden has a good grasp of policy but is less wonkish and polished than Clinton, which I think may be a strength for Biden. Trump can dominate more staid politicians (Bush the Younger, Rubio) with bombast and invectives. Biden can discuss healthcare policy and is also fairly likely to call Trump a wall-eyed trout sniffer or some other crazy insult as well. I think Joe's combative nature makes him a match for Trump tonight. Word on the street is Biden is approaching this as the front runner and is going to try to not get too bogged down in the personal attacks. I'm pretty fired up to see but will probably miss most of it working. Stupid work.

There's a lot of chatter that Trump is going to go after Biden's family. The Hunter/Burisma ties have been a steady GOP drumbeat but I guess Biden's brothers have some issues, too. Trump isn't the type of person to reflect on whether something he says is hypocritical but I think perhaps a bigger concern is how sympathetic a figure Biden is with regard to his family life. If Trump goes after Biden's family and Biden has an opportunity to tell his story, I'm not sure there are many Americans - even ardent Trump supporters - that don't feel some level of empathy for Biden's tragedy. It would be a low political moment in American history but lord knows we've been seeing a lot of them the last decade.

[dukebluesincebirth]

I think the moderators will be key tonight. As a poster above stated, Trump yelled at/interrupted/spoke over/threatened Clinton again and again in 2016 debates. I was put off, but apparently millions of Americans despised Hillary Clinton and didn't seem to mind her getting yelled at. Trump will not bully Biden like this, and people don't despise Biden like they did Clinton. My fear is that Biden will respond by yelling back at and over Trump, creating a scene where we have two old white men yelling insults at each other like teenagers. If the moderators at least attempt to stop the bickering and allow each candidate to speak, this would be a much better look for our country right now.

[Rich]

The tv showed a few clips of the 2016 debates last night. I had forgotten how tough Trump was on Clinton. Gosh, sometimes he was absolutely brutal telling her that he would put her in jail and the the constant talking over her. I wonder if he will be the same tonight and how Biden will deal with it? I think Hillary remained calm and aloof which could have been perceived as weak or...I have a feeling Biden will not deal with him the same way. It must be difficult to decide how to respond.

During the Democrat debates he consistently stopped talking, even in mid-sentence, when his time was up. In my opinion, that seemed awkward and weak. He needs to project strength and that he's not going to just accept Trump's attacks, but at the same time he can't get sucked into Trump's sheer brutality. There are some common themes he needs to pound no matter what Trump is talking about - healthcare including the administration's attacks on the ACA in courts, coronovirus response, and Trump's financial issues.

[LasVegas]

I think the moderators will be key tonight. As a poster above stated, Trump yelled at/interrupted/spoke over/threatened Clinton again and again in 2016 debates. I was put off, but apparently millions of Americans despised Hillary Clinton and didn't seem to mind her getting yelled at. Trump will not bully Biden like this, and people don't despise Biden like they did Clinton. My fear is that Biden will respond by yelling back at and over Trump, creating a scene where we have two old white men yelling insults at each other like teenagers. If the moderators at least attempt to stop the bickering and allow each candidate to speak, this would be a much better look for our country right now.

It’s only Chris Wallace, I think, and he has stated he wants to be as invisible as possible. Whatever the heck that means.

[bundabergdevil]

It’s only Chris Wallace, I think, and he has stated he wants to be as invisible as possible. Whatever the heck that means.

Dumbeldore gave him Harry's cloak of invisibility?

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

So, it's debate day. I'm still uncertain if I have the intestinal fortitude to watch, but I feel a certain obligation.