2020 Presidential Election

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I started stalking my old Facebook account during COVID after about 6 or 7 years of complete abdication. Been interesting to see what folks are up to but 'unfriend' is an amazing feature. Also, what the heck is with Essential Oils. Half the girls I went to high school with are in full blown pyramid schemes. Freaking crazy.

I haven't posted on FB in nearly ten years. So glad not to be active on it during election cycles. Makes me think differently of people.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Well, I dunno if the stuff about Biden and purity tests is completely true. While there are some in the Progressive camp who are frustrated and say they won't vote for him, it is a pretty small (but vocal) group. he vast majority of Democrats are perfectly fine with Biden doing what he needs to do to get elected. After all, electability was the primary factor driving the Democratic primary race in the winter.

I'm not sure - I would love to see polling on that. I think there is a material number of progressives who don't think Biden really represents them and might not show up, even though they have had four years of the alternative. I think the numbers will be a lot smaller than there were four years ago for Hillary, but they exist. As we have discussed ad nauseum, there are a lot of people out there who don't believe in lesser of two evils voting, so Biden being closer to them than Trump isn't always good enough. And the question this year is do they like him enough to stand in line for a few hours on a cold rainy day potentially near someone with COVID? If you have a slight preference or are relatively indifferent, this year of all years you won't bother. And as we also have discussed ad nauseum, most people this year have strong preferences, but there are definitely those who don't.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Well, I dunno if the stuff about Biden and purity tests is completely true. While there are some in the Progressive camp who are frustrated and say they won't vote for him, it is a pretty small (but vocal) group. he vast majority of Democrats are perfectly fine with Biden doing what he needs to do to get elected. After all, electability was the primary factor driving the Democratic primary race in the winter.

I would love to meet a progressive that won't vote for Biden and have a conversation. It's a mentality I can't begin to understand. Though, I am admittedly limited in what I understand.

[ClemmonsDevil]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...siasm-problem/


Money quote:

"First, while Biden voters may not be all that excited about voting for Biden, they’re very enthusiastic about voting against Trump. And that gives Biden a pretty strong edge, because Trump supporters don’t despise Biden the way they despised Hillary Clinton in 2016. In fact, according to survey data from the Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape project, the share of Trump voters who rate Biden unfavorably is consistently much lower than the share of Biden voters who rate Trump negatively — nearly 30 percentage points lower..."

There is an enthusiasm gap, but it hurts Trump at this point more than Biden.

[camion]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...siasm-problem/


Money quote:

"First, while Biden voters may not be all that excited about voting for Biden, they’re very enthusiastic about voting against Trump. And that gives Biden a pretty strong edge, because Trump supporters don’t despise Biden the way they despised Hillary Clinton in 2016. In fact, according to survey data from the Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape project, the share of Trump voters who rate Biden unfavorably is consistently much lower than the share of Biden voters who rate Trump negatively — nearly 30 percentage points lower..."

There is an enthusiasm gap, but it hurts Trump at this point more than Biden.

I just read this as both sides being enthusiastic about Trump, just in different directions.

This continues to look largely like a referendum on the incumbent.

[Kdogg]

Absolutely true. I've had enough conversations with Trump base supporters to know he could move toward the middle and not lose a single one of them. They have a remarkable ability to give him leeway on almost any issue. The concept of the "Deep State vs Trump" is a great angle. When he gains any political victory his supporters give him all the credit, but if something fails they assign none of the blame to him. In those cases, it's the "Deep State" that kept him from victory. But if he tacks to the middle his supporters will say something to the effect of, "He has to do it so he can get other really important stuff done down the road." It really is genius from a purely political perspective.

After the last 48 hours, not only am I'm convinced that NOTHING will move the needle away from Trump but that he's going to win. I deal with people (friends, family, customers) across the political spectrum on a daily basis so I get multiple perceptives. The Pro Trump groups are just more devoted than the Anti Trump and Pro Biden groups. I thing there will be just enough of them in key places to keep him in office. I mean yesterday he deplaned in Michigan while CCR's "Fortune Son" was playing. I asked a couple of my pro Trump employees about it and they said so. They know what the songs about. His supporters just don't care about the irony or the hypocrisy or the lies. We are seeing a concrete floor for Trump. He just has to swing a combined 100,000-150,000 voters in a few of states again to win. He is going to lose the popular vote by more this time and it will not matter.

[ClemmonsDevil]

Oh goodness yes. But that is what Trump would like to avoid during a pandemic and in the midst of unrest in the streets. Not to mention economic woes. Trump is running an insurgency campaign during hos own administration. Biden is running a return to normalcy campaign. Not flashy but seems to be working.

[OldPhiKap]

I would love to meet a progressive that won't vote for Biden and have a conversation. It's a mentality I can't begin to understand. Though, I am admittedly limited in what I understand.

A friend from Duke was a Bernie delegate in 2016. He did not vote for HRC and says he will not vote for Biden. Spelling out his argument would likely violate the rules of this thread, but he is adamant in his views.

So those folks exist.

[Kdogg]

A friend from Duke was a Bernie delegate in 2016. He did not vote for HRC and says he will not vote for Biden. Spelling out his argument would likely violate the rules of this thread, but he is adamant in his views.

So those folks exist.

Forest for the tree...

[OldPhiKap]

Forest for the tree...

Not from his perspective. But it also goes back to the question of whether voting third party is a valid expression of one's views or a futile gesture. (And he does like some of Trump's populist positions which have some overlap with Bernie).

[JasonEvans]

I get the 2016 result has some folks thinking Trump is some kind of electoral wizard who can find a way to victory when none seems to exist. I get that some folks say they do not trust the polls or that some shy Trump voter is out there skewing polls all over the place. And I really, really get that there are still almost 2 months until election day and things can change.

But, at this moment right now, Trump is on a losing track. If we go into election day with Biden up 7+ points in the national polling average and Trump backers celebrating things like "only down 2 in Florida" and "tied in Georgia" then Biden is going to win 300+ electoral votes with ease. This is just the reality of the science of polling.

-Jason "your own gut is a powerful force, but it is not better than the scientific methodology of polling" Evans

[rsvman]

Not everybody in America views the election as a game, or as a binary choice. Most people do, for sure, but not all. It's not Duke-UNC or Yankees-Red Sox for everybody. Therefore there will always be a very small minority of voters who don't see it as concretely as "I need to automatically vote for Biden if I don't like Trump." (And yes, I know that, practically speaking, it really is that simple, so you don't need to remind me in this thread or send me PMs to tell me how stupid I am. Thanks.)

[Steven43]

A friend from Duke was a Bernie delegate in 2016. He did not vote for HRC and says he will not vote for Biden. Spelling out his argument would likely violate the rules of this thread, but he is adamant in his views.

So those folks exist.

Fortunately there are not all that many of those misguided folks. Yes, that is my characterization; I know plenty on DBR won’t agree with it. That’s fine.

[Jeffrey]

I get the 2016 result has some folks thinking Trump is some kind of electoral wizard who can find a way to victory when none seems to exist. I get that some folks say they do not trust the polls or that some shy Trump voter is out there skewing polls all over the place. And I really, really get that there are still almost 2 months until election day and things can change.

But, at this moment right now, Trump is on a losing track. If we go into election day with Biden up 7+ points in the national polling average and Trump backers celebrating things like "only down 2 in Florida" and "tied in Georgia" then Biden is going to win 300+ electoral votes with ease. This is just the reality of the science of polling.

-Jason "your own gut is a powerful force, but it is not better than the scientific methodology of polling" Evans

I agree and think the substantial Biden lead makes sense. The last election was relatively close. Biden is considered much more likable and trustworthy than HRC, and Trump is probably considered less likable and trustworthy than he was in 2016.

However, I wonder if polls are substantially less reliable with a candidate like Trump? Specifically, are there a very substantial amount of swing voters who will not publicly admit they prefer Trump but will ultimately vote for him privately?

[SouthernDukie]

After the last 48 hours, not only am I'm convinced that NOTHING will move the needle away from Trump but that he's going to win. I deal with people (friends, family, customers) across the political spectrum on a daily basis so I get multiple perceptives. The Pro Trump groups are just more devoted than the Anti Trump and Pro Biden groups. I thing there will be just enough of them in key places to keep him in office. I mean yesterday he deplaned in Michigan while CCR's "Fortune Son" was playing. I asked a couple of my pro Trump employees about it and they said so. They know what the songs about. His supporters just don't care about the irony or the hypocrisy or the lies. We are seeing a concrete floor for Trump. He just has to swing a combined 100,000-150,000 voters in a few of states again to win. He is going to lose the popular vote by more this time and it will not matter.

This is my perception as well. Like you I interact with a good number of people that span the political spectrum. The one constant I see is that Trump's people will literally die for the man. I don't see anything close to that kind of enthusiasm on the other side. The only thing I'd disagree with you on is that Trump doesn't even need 100,000 in a particular state. 10,000 - 20,000 voters in key states will do it.

This is why I say a lower voter election favors Donald Trump. If Biden is to win then the suburbs and urban voters must turn out (by mail or in person) in mass. If they think it's in the bag and some of them don't need to do the work of voting, and making sure they do so correctly if by mail, Trump absolutely has a real path to victory.

[OldPhiKap]

I get the 2016 result has some folks thinking Trump is some kind of electoral wizard who can find a way to victory when none seems to exist. I get that some folks say they do not trust the polls or that some shy Trump voter is out there skewing polls all over the place. And I really, really get that there are still almost 2 months until election day and things can change.

But, at this moment right now, Trump is on a losing track. If we go into election day with Biden up 7+ points in the national polling average and Trump backers celebrating things like "only down 2 in Florida" and "tied in Georgia" then Biden is going to win 300+ electoral votes with ease. This is just the reality of the science of polling.

-Jason "your own gut is a powerful force, but it is not better than the scientific methodology of polling" Evans

Yeah, but.

The 7% nationally is irrelevant. If he is within striking distance of the margin of error in enough battleground states he is in fine shape.

Looking at the 538 snake, these are the four closest states that Nate shows as Biden leans giving him his margin of victory:

NC -- Nate has this essentially even
FL -- Nate has Trump only down by 2%
AZ -- Nate has Trump down 3.5%
PA -- Nate has Trump down 4.5%

IF Trump wins all four of those and the rest of Nate's safer predictions on both ends hold, Trump wins. So, how secure are you that Nate is right on these four? IF we assume that there is a 3% margin of error, and IF we assume that "shy" Trump voters allow Trump to beat his polls by about 1% like he did in 2016, you essentially have a dead heat for Trump to win.

To be clear, I think the betting odds of Trump being roughly a 2:3 underdog sounds right to me. But the national number is misleading because of the Electoral College bias in favor of Trump here. And polling [heresy] is not an exact science [/heresy].

[SouthernDukie]

However, I wonder if polls are substantially less reliable with a candidate like Trump? Specifically, are there a very substantial amount of swing voters who will not publicly admit they prefer Trump but will ultimately vote for him privately?

This is my contention. There are still "Hidden Trump" voters that don't say they are voting for him, but they will once they get behind the curtain. But they aren't swing voters because they really do have their minds made up. And have had them made up for a long, long time.

I guess if we define "Swing Voters" only as those that have crossed the aisles recently (Obama/Trump or Romney/Hillary) then sure - there are many swing voters.

But if we define them by those that truly don't know which way they'll vote, then I think that percentage is truly less than 2%. That's how I'm thinking of swing voters - those that honestly can be persuaded at this late date. I don't think there are many of them, and I don't believe the debates will change any minds. Not enough to sway the election. It's only about which candidate gets more of their supporters out to vote. That's all this is about, imho.

[Wander]

I get the 2016 result has some folks thinking Trump is some kind of electoral wizard who can find a way to victory when none seems to exist. I get that some folks say they do not trust the polls or that some shy Trump voter is out there skewing polls all over the place. And I really, really get that there are still almost 2 months until election day and things can change.

But, at this moment right now, Trump is on a losing track. If we go into election day with Biden up 7+ points in the national polling average and Trump backers celebrating things like "only down 2 in Florida" and "tied in Georgia" then Biden is going to win 300+ electoral votes with ease. This is just the reality of the science of polling.

-Jason "your own gut is a powerful force, but it is not better than the scientific methodology of polling" Evans

I would agree if it wasn't for Covid. It's such a wild card. I just don't know how that's going to have an impact on voter turnout, the timescale with which votes are tallied, etc – not to mention that Trump has openly questioned the whole process multiple times. I still think the main strategy is to just keep it close enough such that questioning the results in a few states seems reasonable.

[Steven43]

The one constant I see is that Trump's people will literally die for the man.

Not sure how you define “Trump’s people”. If you consider everyone who voted for Trump in 2016 as his people, then I know for a fact you are wrong.

I have a considerable number of relatives, friends, and colleagues who voted for Trump in 2016 (not so much because they liked Trump, but because they tend to vote GOP) who say they are voting for Biden this time around.

[Jeffrey]

IF we assume that "shy" Trump voters allow Trump to beat his polls by about 1% like he did in 2016, you essentially have a dead heat for Trump to win.

I think it might be as high as 3% in 2020. For example, I would not be surprised (or, probably told) if my wife votes for Trump and I’m certain she would never admit it to her only child.