Originally Posted by
JasonEvans
It is fascinating to me how much people are influenced by recency bias. If something happens, we just assume it is really, really likely to happen again, even in the face of evidence pointing otherwise.
Case in point is the really interesting polling being done by USC. They are not just asking people who they plan to vote for, they also ask who voters think other voters will vote for. It is sorta a version of "who do you support?" and "who do you think will win the election?"
There is a mountain of poll evidence at this point that shows Biden has a steady lead in the race. But, people just cannot shake Trump's "come from behind" win in 2016 and so they just assume he's going to do the same thing this time. As a result, the latest USC poll finds Biden leading 52.7 to Trump's 40.3. But, when you ask the "who do you think others are voting for" the numbers shift to Biden 47.5 and Trump 45.6.
It is sorta fun to noodle with the various data they are collecting. Go here and click on All Graphs:
https://election.usc.edu/
For the popular vote majority who voted for Clinton it's "hope for the best, but prepare for the worst." Given that the 2016 election was such a surprising and catastrophic night for many people, I'm not at all surprised.
Rich
"Failure is Not a Destination"
Coach K on the Dan Patrick Show, December 22, 2016