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  1. #12261
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by Devilwin View Post
    Frankly, I for one will be glad when it's over...
    Oh, trust me, you are not not not alone in that thought.
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  2. #12262
    I understand that Trump needs to highlight how well the stock market is doing but for many Americans it doesn’t help them at all. Only 22% of those earning less than $40k own stock (many of the same people that were laid off).

    https://news.gallup.com/poll/266807/...wns-stock.aspx

  3. #12263
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    New Jersey
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    It is fascinating to me how much people are influenced by recency bias. If something happens, we just assume it is really, really likely to happen again, even in the face of evidence pointing otherwise.

    Case in point is the really interesting polling being done by USC. They are not just asking people who they plan to vote for, they also ask who voters think other voters will vote for. It is sorta a version of "who do you support?" and "who do you think will win the election?"

    There is a mountain of poll evidence at this point that shows Biden has a steady lead in the race. But, people just cannot shake Trump's "come from behind" win in 2016 and so they just assume he's going to do the same thing this time. As a result, the latest USC poll finds Biden leading 52.7 to Trump's 40.3. But, when you ask the "who do you think others are voting for" the numbers shift to Biden 47.5 and Trump 45.6.

    It is sorta fun to noodle with the various data they are collecting. Go here and click on All Graphs: https://election.usc.edu/
    For the popular vote majority who voted for Clinton it's "hope for the best, but prepare for the worst." Given that the 2016 election was such a surprising and catastrophic night for many people, I'm not at all surprised.
    Rich
    "Failure is Not a Destination"
    Coach K on the Dan Patrick Show, December 22, 2016

  4. #12264
    Quote Originally Posted by Devilwin View Post
    Frankly, I for one will be glad when it's over...
    For me, that depends on how it goes...

  5. #12265
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Oh, trust me, you are not not not alone in that thought.
    Unfortunately, regardless of the outcome, I think we're going to be running hot as a country for some time. Another poster shared the "war gaming" that's occurring on the assumption that Trump will not admit defeat if clearly defeated on election day or launches a legal attack if counting extends beyond election day, which is very likely for a number of reasons including the administration trying to make it so. On the other side, HRC is encouraging Biden and the Dems to not cede under close circumstances.

    If Biden wins, I expect an evolved version of the Tea Party, with a strong helping of QAnon-style conspiracy, to assume the most vocal resistance. Lots more armed militia in Capitol buildings claiming government overreach and posturing about shooting back when the government comes for their guns. There's already plenty of that going on but Trump claiming deep state cheating could be a match. White nationalism is clearly resurgent so we'll see more Charlottesville still marches, etc.

    If Trump wins, I expect we will see an intensification of the current protesting but with more rioting mixed in, but with even more direct Antifa-Proud Boys style conflicts in the streets, etc. Trump's shown a willingness to deploy the military against us and will only try to do that more if he wins and the protests rage. I wasn't around for Kent State but it sure seems like that's where we're headed.

    From that vantage, both Trump and Biden are right that this this election will have grave consequences, it's just that only one of those candidates will even pretend to bring Americans together and turn the temperature on the nation down.

  6. #12266
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    Unfortunately, regardless of the outcome, I think we're going to be running hot as a country for some time. Another poster shared the "war gaming" that's occurring on the assumption that Trump will not admit defeat if clearly defeated on election day or launches a legal attack if counting extends beyond election day, which is very likely for a number of reasons including the administration trying to make it so. On the other side, HRC is encouraging Biden and the Dems to not cede under close circumstances.

    If Biden wins, I expect an evolved version of the Tea Party, with a strong helping of QAnon-style conspiracy, to assume the most vocal resistance. Lots more armed militia in Capitol buildings claiming government overreach and posturing about shooting back when the government comes for their guns. There's already plenty of that going on but Trump claiming deep state cheating could be a match. White nationalism is clearly resurgent so we'll see more Charlottesville still marches, etc.

    If Trump wins, I expect we will see an intensification of the current protesting but with more rioting mixed in, but with even more direct Antifa-Proud Boys style conflicts in the streets, etc. Trump's shown a willingness to deploy the military against us and will only try to do that more if he wins and the protests rage. I wasn't around for Kent State but it sure seems like that's where we're headed.

    From that vantage, both Trump and Biden are right that this this election will have grave consequences, it's just that only one of those candidates will even pretend to bring Americans together and turn the temperature on the nation down.
    I concur with all of this. The temperature will not suddenly drop after November 3, December 25, or even January 20. And I'm not even taking into account who wins. Doesn't matter. America is not going to cool off for some time. My only hope is that through some miracle we can move forward as a nation and begin to heal the terrible breaches that have only widened. But make no mistake, no matter who wins the other side will not just quietly shrink back into the shadows. The next POTUS will have a heck of a full plate he'll have to deal with.

  7. #12267
    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernDukie View Post
    I concur with all of this. The temperature will not suddenly drop after November 3, December 25, or even January 20. And I'm not even taking into account who wins. Doesn't matter. America is not going to cool off for some time. My only hope is that through some miracle we can move forward as a nation and begin to heal the terrible breaches that have only widened. But make no mistake, no matter who wins the other side will not just quietly shrink back into the shadows. The next POTUS will have a heck of a full plate he'll have to deal with.
    Sheesh. If only Canada had warmer weather... or Mexico had a better job economy... or New Zealand were closer. I really think about moving these days, but I guess that's just giving up on my country.

  8. #12268
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    If the media and both parties would stop paying attention to the loud and angry voices braying on both ends of the spectrum, we would all be better served. Many of the issues we face are clearly resolvable if the parties were actually interested in working together to compromise and get things done.

    But there is profit in division, and the primary systems discourage compromise. And so it goes.

  9. #12269
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    If the media and both parties would stop paying attention to the loud and angry voices braying on both ends of the spectrum, we would all be better served.
    Sure, but what is the media supposed to do when one of those "loud and angry voices" is...

  10. #12270
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    If the media and both parties would stop paying attention to the loud and angry voices braying on both ends of the spectrum, we would all be better served. Many of the issues we face are clearly resolvable if the parties were actually interested in working together to compromise and get things done.

    But there is profit in division, and the primary systems discourage compromise. And so it goes.
    Our electoral system does not reward politicians who reach for the middle ground. Gerrymandering has created districts across the country where the biggest electoral threat comes not from the "other side" but from a hard right or hard left primary challenge. That is why I, and others, would like to see redistricting reforms and other electoral changes that will reduce partisanship.

    But, let's just say I am not holding my breath waiting for it because it ain't coming any time soon, I fear.
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  11. #12271
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Location
    North Carolina
    Quote Originally Posted by Devilwin View Post
    Frankly, I for one will be glad when it's over...
    Agreed. I personally feel more anxiety about the election vs. the virus.
    Kyle gets BUCKETS!
    https://youtu.be/NJWPASQZqLc

  12. #12272
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    But there is profit in division, and the primary systems discourage compromise. And so it goes.
    1000x this.

    Outrage gets clicks and attention, and we are now a click-and-attention-driven economy, and I'm not sure when that's going to change, or what might change it.

    Moderated internet forums (just a handful, reflecting my hobbies/interests) are the closest thing I come to social media, and sometimes I even question whether I should withdraw my participation entirely and go to just information-gathering lurker mode. But there are other places I recognized fairly early as being "bad for me" - in terms of privacy, security, attention, serenity (NOW!), and so on.

    Sometimes the only winning move is not to play.

  13. #12273
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Chesapeake, VA.
    Quote Originally Posted by nmduke2001 View Post
    I understand that Trump needs to highlight how well the stock market is doing but for many Americans it doesn’t help them at all. Only 22% of those earning less than $40k own stock (many of the same people that were laid off).

    https://news.gallup.com/poll/266807/...wns-stock.aspx
    I wonder if even people who don't own stock might think of the success of the stock market in a favorable light, though, and think it means that the economy might be stronger, which might benefit everybody?
       

  14. #12274
    Quote Originally Posted by rsvman View Post
    I wonder if even people who don't own stock might think of the success of the stock market in a favorable light, though, and think it means that the economy might be stronger, which might benefit everybody?
    IMO some will, some won't.

    To me though, there are totalitarian regimes (one in particular comes to mind) that have stock markets. Getting rich via investing is nice but so is living in a country where you don't get murdered for criticizing the government, exposing & fighting corruption, protesting, etc. There's a lot more to quality of life than a booming stock market. To me, anyway.

  15. #12275
    Quote Originally Posted by rsvman View Post
    I wonder if even people who don't own stock might think of the success of the stock market in a favorable light, though, and think it means that the economy might be stronger, which might benefit everybody?
    I work in financial services. A rising market makes my life easier (although getting new clients is a bit harder because everyone is happy when their accounts are up). Since 2008, many people that I speak with think that the stock market and the economy are the same thing. In reality, this current run up in the stock market is only widening the chasm between the haves and the have-nots.

  16. #12276
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington DC
    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyNotCrazie View Post
    Using the White House is yet another law/norm of presidential behavior that Trump has completely abandoned. It is kind of funny that he claims to be the law and order president yet he personally has violated countless laws (or "rules") about how a president should behave. I know that for many, this blatant disregard for the dignity and rules of the office of the president is a litmus test, while others work themselves to exhaustion trying to come up with creative ways to defend this. No prior president of either party would have had the chutzpah to try such a thing. But all of our checks and balances are gone, and the kool aid has been devoured.
    The past several years have illustrated how much of our government is governed by "norms" rather than "rules," and that norms aren't really enforceable and violating them doesn't seem to have implications for the violating party (in the short term at least).

  17. #12277
    Quote Originally Posted by rsvman View Post
    I wonder if even people who don't own stock might think of the success of the stock market in a favorable light, though, and think it means that the economy might be stronger, which might benefit everybody?
    For sure. I think Americans in general have been conditioned to look at the stock market as a legitimate gauge of how well the economy is doing on all fronts. This is why some politicians have tried to draw the distinction between "Wall Street" and "Main Street". There is definitely truth in that distinction, but I get the impression that most people (including those that own no stock) automatically assume a healthy stock market equates to a great economy for all.

  18. #12278
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    You gotta play the cards you're dealt.

    In January, Trump could point to extremely low unemployment, extremely high stock market valuations, and other positive economic metrics to support his assertion that "he built the best and strongest economy ever." Presently, the high stock market is the prime one which is at historically good levels. So, bang that drum.

    No real surprise.

    (putting aside the fact that a President always gets too much credit, and too much blame, for things like the stock market which are shaped by fiscal policy but are governed more by the invisible hand of the global market beyond his control).

  19. #12279
    Join Date
    Feb 2018
    Location
    Dur'm
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    And yet it was about as good a speech as Trump could give. He stayed on message and on script (teleprompter) better than he usually does. He hit Biden hard on being a pawn of Bernie and the liberals. Over and over again he talked about the "Bernie manifesto." I think he deserves praise for doing what his handlers want him to do.
    While I agree that staying on message was good in the sense that he did not give any soundbites or slogans over to his opponent, I wonder how effective that speech was at doing the thing that seems to matter most to DJT: stoking the base. His delivery was, to put it mildly, unconvincing. Sing-song reading is not inspirational. Frankly, it was just flat-out boring to listen to. The driving force of the last three nights of the convention seemed to be filling in Trump's weaknesses on racial issues, COVID, and gender issues, but it seemed to do little to play on Trump's strengths as an inspirational leader. Trump can't very well address the weaknesses himself (even if he could admit to them directly and openly), so it made sense to me that he'd want to emphasize his strength. I think he failed in that fairly spectacularly. He absolutely depends on his strong personality, and if I had been a die-hard Trump supporter waiting for the big moment, I think I would have been sorely disappointed.

    As a result, I wonder if the hint of a post-convention bounce which seemed to be developing won't actually materialize.

    I won't say more so as to avoid overstepping.

  20. #12280
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by nmduke2001 View Post
    I work in financial services. A rising market makes my life easier (although getting new clients is a bit harder because everyone is happy when their accounts are up). Since 2008, many people that I speak with think that the stock market and the economy are the same thing. In reality, this current run up in the stock market is only widening the chasm between the haves and the have-nots.
    Yep, record market highs co-existing with near record unemployment is surreal. I’m loathe to use the term “rigged”, as both parties do, but there’s no question that the present system creates more wealth inequality not less and that in the long-run in history that has fomented revolution, violence, disaffection, etc.
       

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