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  1. #11321
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    I saw his video over at the NY Times, and while he may be a political savant, he comes across as a wee bit unhinged...I found him to be not particularly convincing.

  2. #11322
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by YmoBeThere View Post
    I watched the video but didn't catch the part where he said that Trump would win the popular vote. I do recall it noting that after the Bush/Gore vote that he changed to predicting the winner and not necessarily who got the most votes.
    But he uses a very simple formula. Unless he changed his formula of questions (and I don't think he did) then he cannot say that it was predicting one thing at one point and predicting another thing at another point.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  3. #11323
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    New Jersey
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    But he uses a very simple formula. Unless he changed his formula of questions (and I don't think he did) then he cannot say that it was predicting one thing at one point and predicting another thing at another point.
    I was wondering whether there is any correlation between "# of his factors won" and "decisiveness of victory." Presumably not, but if so then this will be a very tight race.
    Rich
    "Failure is Not a Destination"
    Coach K on the Dan Patrick Show, December 22, 2016

  4. #11324
    Quote Originally Posted by swood1000 View Post
    Take a look at this article, for example: Progressives don’t love Joe Biden, but they’re learning to love his agenda. Do you disagree that the meaning of “progressive” in this article is the meaning of the word generally in the population, and that most people understand it as being synonymous with “liberal” or “left”?
    I do disagree with that meaning of the term progressive. It's not the historical (like over 200 years of history) meaning. I also believe that the vast majority of people have no idea what the term means. It is generally used more in the media than by everyday people. There is a reason that right leaning media do not demonize it. The target audience do not link it with the left. In your linked article from Fox, I do believe that Mrs. Biden is using it in the correct, traditional, and historical manner. As such, there is no contradiction.

  5. #11325
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    I saw his video over at the NY Times, and while he may be a political savant, he comes across as a wee bit unhinged...I found him to be not particularly convincing.
    Not to mention his criteria are incredibly subjective. See the bolded below

    Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
    Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
    Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
    Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
    Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
    Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
    Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
    Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
    Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
    Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
    Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
    Incumbent (party) charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
    Challenger (party) charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

  6. #11326
    If the first rule of VP picks is "do no harm," then Karen Bass's ties to Cuba have to be just about disqualifying from a horse-race perspective.

    Without passing any judgment on her actions or comments, sufficed to say if she's the VP nominee the Trump campaign will flood the Florida airwaves (and net...waves?) with this story. And it could be enough to sway Cuban-American voters--though the linked article from the AP does note some generational divide in the voting bloc, as well as some evidence that the die may already be cast for the older generation of Cuban-American voters.

    But putting all other qualifications aside, if a VP pick would cause you to lose in Florida when you might otherwise have a strong chance of winning that state, it would be a huge strategic error to make her part of the ticket.

  7. #11327
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Richmond, VA
    Giant Meteor.jpg

    The way 2020 has been going, is it really that far-fetched?
    "That young man has an extra step on his ladder the rest of us just don't have."

  8. #11328
    Quote Originally Posted by Nrrrrvous View Post
    Giant Meteor.jpg

    The way 2020 has been going, is it really that far-fetched?
    This is the sort of biased post I can get behind.

  9. #11329
    Quote Originally Posted by Nrrrrvous View Post
    Giant Meteor.jpg

    The way 2020 has been going, is it really that far-fetched?
    Aren’t we saving that for a UNC/UK NCAA championship game?

  10. #11330
    Quote Originally Posted by Nrrrrvous View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    This is the sort of biased post I can get behind.
    I guess, if you really crouch down...but it looks pretty small.

  11. #11331
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Correct side of the Durham/CH border
    Quote Originally Posted by Truth&Justise View Post
    I guess, if you really crouch down...but it looks pretty small.
    Surely you can’t be serious.
    “Coach said no 3s.” - Zion on The Block

  12. #11332
    Quote Originally Posted by Dr. Rosenrosen View Post
    Surely you can’t be serious.
    It’s an election thread. “I am serious...And don't call me Shirley.”

  13. #11333
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Partly Orlando, FL partly heard Sandpoint, ID
    I am feeling pretty good about my Picard/Riker election tee shirt right about now

  14. #11334
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed

  15. #11335
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed

  16. #11336
    Quote Originally Posted by Deslok View Post
    I am feeling pretty good about my Picard/Riker election tee shirt right about now
    How about a Palpatine/Vader shirt? Those are always stylish.

    I still have my "Don't blame me. I voted for Perot" bumper sticker, but I'm not sure they were ever in style.

  17. #11337
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed

  18. #11338
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    How about a Palpatine/Vader shirt? Those are always stylish.

    I still have my "Don't blame me. I voted for Perot" bumper sticker, but I'm not sure they were ever in style.
    "Don't blame me. I voted for Kodos." - Homer Simpson

  19. #11339
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Location
    North Carolina

    Trump to ban TikTok in 45 days unless ...

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/06/polit...tok/index.html

    Honestly this baffles me. Can someone explain how Trump thinks this can be good for him?
    I was listening to the radio station the other day and the host of the show said his daughter is 16 and wants to be able to vote now against Trump because of his threats against them. My own daughter who is 27 uses Tik Tok a lot. I don’t understand the strategy here...

    “Microsoft said Sunday that it was pushing forward with talks to acquire the appfollowing a conversation between CEO Satya Nadella and the President. On Monday, Trump set September 15 as the deadline for TikTok to find a US buyer. Failing to do so, he said, would lead him to shut down the app in the country. In an unusual declaration, Trump also said any deal would have to include a "substantial amount of money" coming to the US Treasury”.
    President of the Marshall Plumlee fan club!

  20. #11340
    I think it’s fascinating that Trump said in a speech that “He is against God” when talking about Biden and it barely even registered in the news. The man claimed that a political opponent was AGAINST GOD.

    Biden’s response
    Like so many people, my faith has been the bedrock foundation of my life: it's provided me comfort in moments of loss and tragedy, it's kept me grounded and humbled in times of triumph and joy. And in this moment of darkness for our country — of pain, of division, and of sickness for so many Americans — my faith has been a guiding light for me and a constant reminder of the fundamental dignity and humanity that God has bestowed upon all of us...For President Trump to attack my faith is shameful. It's beneath the office he holds and it's beneath the dignity the American people so rightly expect and deserve from their leaders

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